Transcript Emissions and Air Quality Modeling at the WRAP RMC Zac Adelman

Emissions and Air Quality
Modeling at the WRAP RMC
Status, Tools, & Process
Zac Adelman
Center for Environmental Modeling for Policy Development
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WRAP Technical Oversight Committee - Denver, CO July 29-30, 2008
WRAP RMC Structure
• UC-Riverside, CE-CERT
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Gail Tonnesen (RMC Project Manager)
Project and contract management
Meteorology, emissions, air quality modeling
Data analysis and model development
Computing system and data management
• ENVIRON, Corp.
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Ralph Morris
Meteorology, emissions, air quality modeling
Data analysis and emissions model development
Emission inventory development
• UNC, Institute for the Environment
– Zac Adelman
– Emissions modeling and data analysis
RMC Modeling Challenges
• Large scale data collection/collation effort
• Missing and/or deficient emission inventories
– e.g. wildfire, dust, anthropogenic ammonia, commercial shipping
• Complexities in applying the available modeling and
analysis tools to meet WRAP needs
• Data management and storage requirements
• Modeling system development and management
• Computing system development, management, and
maintenance
• Technical outreach and modeling support
Goal: Address these issues with the next generation set of
modeling tools
The Evolution of RMC Modeling
1. Modeling infrastructure development
(personnel, hardware, software)
2. Identify and understand key scientific
issues
3. Tool development
4. Application
5. Reporting and documentation
State of the Modeling Systems
• Air Quality Modeling system components
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Meteorology
Emissions
Chemistry-Transport
Data analysis/Visualization
• Model distribution portals
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NCAR: emissions, meteorology, CTM, analysis
CMAS: emissions, CTM, analysis
U.S. EPA
Primary developers
• EPA does not prescribe specific models or approaches
State of the Modeling Systems
• Emissions
– Refine existing processes, add new sources/processes
– Integrate with databases, improve performance and transparency
• Chemistry-Transport
– Chemistry improvements, SOA models, PM dynamics
– Probing tools
• Meteorology
– Integrated Met-Chem
• Analysis/Case Management
– Java visualization tools
– Integrated database-statistical analysis programs
– Emissions sensitivity and simulation tracking frameworks
• Documentation
– Inline, online, user’s guides, science documents, primary literature
Modeling System Status
Emissions
• SMOKE (http://www.smoke-model.org)
– Current release version: 2.4 (March, 2008)
• air toxics, EDMS (FAA) interface, BEIS3.13
– Developer: UNC-IE
– Next release: minor bug fixes (Late, 2008)
• CONCEPT (http://www.conceptmodel.org)
– Current release version: 0.60 (March, 2005)
• link-based mobile, stationary area, point processing
– Developers: Alpine Geophysics, ENVIRON, UCR
– Next release:
• MEGAN (http://acd.ucar.edu/~guenther/MEGAN/MEGAN.htm)
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Current release version: 2.04 (October, 2007)
Biogenic emissions, high resolution land-cover, SOA precursors
Developer: NCAR-ACD
Next release:
Modeling System Status
Air Quality
• CMAQ (http://www.cmaq-model.org)
– Current release version: 4.6 (October, 2007)
• air toxics, CB-05, aerosol chemistry updates, carbon and sulfate tracking
– Developer: US EPA-ORD
– Next release: 4.7 (October, 2008)
• SOA model enhancements
– isoprene SOA, sesquiterpene SOA, polymerization, acid-catalyzed SOA,
NOx-dependent SOA yields, and updates to dHvap
– In-cloud SOA formation pathways
– Gas-phase mechanism improvements for SOA precursors
• Coarse PM
– Semi-volatile inorganic aerosol components can condense and
evaporate from the coarse mode via dynamic mass transfer
– Nonvolatile sulfate can condense on the coarse mode
– Water is allowed to exist in the coarse mode determined by
equilibrium with ambient RH
– Variable standard deviation of coarse mode size distribution
Modeling System Status
Air Quality
• CMAQ cont’
– Version 4.7 Updates
• Aerosols (misc)
– Gamma N2O5 updates to heterogeneous reaction
– Re-derived parameterization based on Davis et al. (2008)
• Chemistry
– HONO enhancements
» Heterogeneous reaction on aerosol and ground surfaces
» Emissions from mobile sources
– Photolysis module
» In-line calculation, with aerosol feedback (optional)
» Satellite cloud data (optional)
– Aqueous Chemistry
» Update Henry's Law constants
» SOA Production (Glyoxyl, methylglyoxyl chemistry)
– Add Cl2 chemistry to base CB05 mechanism
Modeling System Status
Air Quality
• CMAQ cont’
– Version 4.7 Updates
• Dry Deposition
– Move calculation to CMAQ (optional)
– Bi-directional NH3 sfc flux (optional)
• Emissions
– Biogenic emissions
» Move BEIS into CMAQ (optional)
» Add sesquiterpene emissions
– Move Plume-rise into CMAQ (optional)
– Sea-salt emissions
» Spatial Allocator to produce ocean file
» Update flux parameterizations & surf zone emissions
Modeling System Status
Air Quality
• CMAQ cont’
– Version 4.7 Updates
• Other upgrades to v4.7
– Multi-pollutant model (aero5)
» Ozone, PM, Hg, air toxics, visibility, Cl…
» Carbon apportionment model
» Sulfate tracking model Capability
– Direct Decoupled Method (DDM)
– Updates for new aerosol
Modeling System Status
Air Quality
• CMAQ cont’
– Beyond version 4.7
• Two-way Coupled WRF/CMAQ
– Feedbacks from the chemistry model to the meteorological model
– High time resolution data exchange
– Chemistry/transport/deposition calculations on-line (and fully
synchronized) with meteorological calculations
• Alternative gas-phase chemical mechanisms
– SAPRC-2007
– RACM2
• Aerosols
– Speciation of fine soil, non-carbon organic matter
– Source Apportionment of PMother
• Clouds
– Rosenbrock solver for aqueous chemistry
– Grell sub-grid cloud module
• Dry Deposition
– Mosaic land-use approach
– NLCD
Modeling System Status
Air Quality
• MCIP (http://www.cmaq-model.org)
– Current release version: 3.3 (October, 2007)
• air toxics, aerosol chemistry updates, carbon and sulfate tracking
– Developer: US EPA-ORD
– Next release: 3.4 (October, 2008)
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Support for UAH satellite processing (if invoked by the user)
Support for WRF urban canopy model (if used in WRF)
Updates for WRFv3 (released April 2008).
Support for 33-category USGS land use (if used in WRF)
Five new air toxic dry deposition velocities
2-m mixing ratio in METCRO2D (for verif/eval)
Modeling System Status
Air Quality
• MCIP cont’
– Version 3.4 Updates
• New specification of WRF header variables for I/O API. (XCENT,
YCENT, XORIG, YORIG)
• User-definable earth radius (hidden, via namelist). Default matches MM5
& WRF defaults
• Slight change to MM5 vertical coordinate definition (Jacobian, etc.) by
adjusting constants to match MM5
• Improved support for PX and NOAH LSMs, particularly for WRF
• Output TKE from MM5/WRF (if available)
• Additional metadata in output (nudging coeffs, earth radius)
Modeling System Status
Air Quality
• CMAQ-AMSTERDAM (http://www.cmascenter.org)
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Next generation MADRID sectional aerosol model
Release: TBD (fall 2008?)
Developer: AER, Inc.
Also includes APT plume-in-grid
• CMAQ-DDM (http://www.cmaq-model.org)
– Current release version: CMAQv4.7 (October, 2008)
– Developer: Georgia Tech
– Technique to determine the sensitivity of a CTM to emissions
changes; alternative to brute force sensitivities
Modeling System Status
Air Quality
• CMAQ-Adjoint (http://people.cs.vt.edu/~asandu/Software/CMAQ_ADJ)
– Current release version: CMAQv4.5
– Developer: Virginia Tech, CalTech, U. of Houston
– 4-D gas-phase chemical data assimilation
• CMAQ-TSSA
– Current release version: CMAQv4.3 and 4.4
– Developer: UC-Riverside
– Tagged-species source apportionment
• Hemispheric CMAQ
– Current release version: In development
– Developer: UNC-IE
– Emissions and chemistry updates for proof-of-concept approach to use
CMAQ as an alternative to GCMs for BCs to continental-scale
simulations
Modeling System Status
Air Quality
• CAMx (http://www.camx.com)
– Developer: ENVIRON, Corp.
– Current release version: 4.5.1 (May 22, 2008)
• Ozone, PM, visibility, mercury and air toxics “one-atmosphere”
photochemical grid modeling system
• Two-way grid nesting
• Plume-in-Grid (PiG)
• CB05, CB-IV, SAPRC chemistry
• RADM aqueous-phase chemistry
• ISORROPIA aerosol thermodynamics
• “Probing Tools”
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Ozone (OSAT) and PM (PSAT) source apportionment
Decoupled Direct Method (DDM)
Process Analysis (PA)
Reactive Tracer (RTRAC)
Modeling System Status
Air Quality
• CAMx version 4.5.1 cont’
– New Features
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Updated SOA module
SOA from sesquiterpenes and isoprene
Polmerization of SOA
New biogenic SOA precursors generated by MEGAN biogenic
emissions model
• Updated PiG module
– Full chemistry in PiG
– Gaussian pluff distribution
– Subgrid-scale receptor grid for sampling live puffs
• CAMx next release (Fall, 2008)
– Higher Order DDM (HDDM)
– Chemistry Updates
Modeling System Status
Integrated Meteorology-Chemistry
• 2-way coupling, chemical feedbacks to meteorology
• WRF-Chem (http://ruc.fsl.noaa.gov/wrf/WG11/public.htm)
– Current release version: Version 3.0 (April, 2008)
– Developers: NCAR et al,
– Meteorology, emissions, chemistry parameterizations
• WRF-CMAQ (http://www.cmaq-model.org)
– Release: CMAQv4.7 (2009)
– Developer: US EPA/ORD
– Full CMAQ CTM tightly coupled to WRF
Modeling System Status
Meteorology
• MM5 (http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5)
– Current release version: 3-7 (December, 2004)
– Developer: PSU, NCAR
– No longer in development, still widely used for driving CTMs
• WRF (http://www.wrf-model.org)
– Current release version: 3.0 (April, 2008)
– Developer: NCAR et al.
– Development in 2 cores
• Advanced Research WRF (ARW)
• Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM)
– Current multi-scale meteorology model supported through NCAR
Modeling System Status
Visualization
• PAVE (http://www.cmascenter.org)
– Current release version: 2.3 (August, 2005)
– Developer: UNC-IE
– No longer in development
• VERDI (http://www.verdi-tool.org)
– Current release version: 1.03 (May, 2008)
– Developer: Argonne NL
– Java replacement to PAVE
• IDV (http://www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/idv/)
– Current release version: 2.5
– Developer: NCAR
– Java integrated 3-d visualization system
Modeling System Status
Analysis
• AMET (http://www.cmascenter.org)
– Current release version: 1.1 (May, 2005)
– Developer: US EPA/ORD
– Meteorology and air quality observation database with utilities for
computing model performance statistics and graphics
• BENMAP (http://www.benmap-model.org)
– Current release version: 2.4.8 (October, 2008)
– Developer: US EPA
– Uses gridded CTM output to calculate health and economic
impacts
Modeling System Status
Sensitivity and Case Management
• EMF
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URL: TBD
Current release version: not yet released, soliciting pilot sites
Developers: EPA/OAQPS, UNC-IE
Emissions data and case management framework; work in progress
to extend to CMAQ
• CoST
– Current release version: not yet released
– Developer: UNC-IE
– Calculates costs/economic impacts of emissions control strategies
and manages emissions sensitivities