Emission paths implied by target formulas

The 11 regions: • • • • • EUROPE = – Old Europe + – New Europe US = The United States KOSAU = Korea + S. Africa + Australia (3 coal-users) CAJAZ = Canada, Japan & New Zealand TE = Russia & other Transition Economies • • • • • • MENA = Middle East + North Africa SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa SASIA= India & the rest of South Asia CHINA = PRC EASIA = Smaller countries of East Asia LACA = Latin America & the Caribbean J. Frankel, Harvard 1

Emissions path for rich countries Fig. 2b OECD Emissions

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100 BAU Simulated Emissions CAP

Predicted actual emissions exceed caps, by permit purchases.

J. Frankel, Harvard 2

Emissions path for poor countries Fig. 4b NON OECD Emissions

20 13 7 0 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100 BA U Simulated Emissions CA P

Predicted actual emissions fall below caps, by permit sales.

J. Frankel, Harvard 3

Emissions path for the world

Fig. 5b World Industrial Carbon Emissions

25 20 15 10 5 0 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 bau Sim ulated Em is s ions

Global peak date ≈ 2035

J. Frankel, Harvard 4