Transcript Document 7197824

United States Coast Guard Academy
8th Annual IAFIE Conference
Intelligence Education:
Theory and Practice
23 May 2012
Use of Case Studies and Structured Analytic
Techniques in Intel Studies: USCGA Example
CDR Toni N. Gay, LCDR Duane B. Ripley, 1/C Ann K. Fecskovics
Strategic Intelligence Studies, U.S. Coast Guard Academy
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Introduction
• Why use case studies in Intelligence Studies?
• Why teach course on intel collections/analysis?
– How/where new class fits @ CGA
– Construct of course
• Cognitive Psychology/institutional pitfalls
• Intel Collections (human and technical)
• Structured Analytical Techniques
– Final exam/Mumbai simulation exercise (maritime)
• Uses all elements studied over course of semester
• Hear from student(s) the value of SIMEX
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Why Use Cases?
• Stimulate the classroom environment
• Application of real world scenarios to
theoretical frameworks
• Utilize group/teamwork approach to
problem solving
• Application of prepared intelligence
briefings to policy/decision maker
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Example Case
The Cuban Missile Crisis October 1962
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Cuban Missile Case Outcomes
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History into the classroom
Students relive the crisis
Analyze imagery
Group exercise
Source confidence
Intel brief to policy maker
Role of Intelligence/Policy
Source: http://www.spymuseum.org/minute-minute-role-intelligence-cuban-missile-crisis-0
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Example Case
Marine Barracks Bombing Beirut 23 OCT 1983
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Getting Them to Think
• What is your analysis of the
reasons for the outcome
described in this case study?
• Do you think the effects of
the attack could have been
prevented or mitigated?
How? Be specific.
• How do you think
responsibility for this event
should be allocated?
• Enforce Critical Thinking
Why? “Because wisdom can't be
told.” -- Thomas W. Shreeve & Assoc.
Source: http://www.intelcasestudies.com
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Example Case
Theoretical Security Zone Incursion Activity
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Application to
Coast Guard Operations
Analysis indicates, with
• Link Analysis of raw
a moderate degree of
data
confidence, that a waterborne
attack is imminent against the
• Utilizing simple
C/S FREEDOM OF THE
techniques
SEAS on or about Friday 25
Oct 2002. Indications &
• Real world mission
warning (I&W) identify the
role
likely method of attack will be
• Identifying potential
multiple waterborne
improvised explosive devises
threat
(WBIEDs).
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Thoughts on Teaching Analysis/
“Critical Thinking” in Higher Ed
• Intelligence education should accentuate critical thinking
and the application of theoretical constructs into current
events. (Frerichs and Di Rienzo, “Establishing a Framework for Intelligence
Education and Training,” JFQ-62/NDU Press.)
• Critical thinking is the art of analyzing and evaluating
thinking with a view to improving it
– Thinks open mindedly within alternative systems of
thought, recognizing and assessing, as need be, their
assumptions, implications, and practical consequences.
(Richard Paul and Linda Elder, Critical Thinking Concepts and Tools, Foundation
for Critical Thinking Press, 2009.)
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Thoughts on Teaching Analysis in Higher Ed
. . . in many subject areas relating to intelligence, it may be
preferable to design assessment items which promote a
deeper learning outcome. For example, the teacher could
set a question for research. . .which requires them to
analyse it rather than commit facts to memory. This
approach helps reinforce. . .critical thinking, research
skills and analysis. . . (Patrick F. Walsh, Intelligence and
Intelligence Analysis, Routledge, 2011.)
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My Challenges to Develop a Course
• Cadets asked for “more intel,” and “what’s next?”
• My Primary Focus:
– Getting it through curriculum committee
• Pitch: To provide mechanism for critical thinking
– Provide cadets deeper look at intel failures/successes
• Most often times collection failures
• Not applied/Not educating entry level analysts/practitioners
– Generalist junior officers/afloat-operations
• Possible future USCG or intel practitioners
• Most likely scenario: future USCG intel consumers
• Intelligence process focused, but analytical learning for all
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Where 2464/2375 Fits
• Government Majors/Electives in Humanities Dept.
 2469 National Security Policy (or Homeland Security Policy)
 2281 Intelligence and Democracy
 NEW: 2464 Selected Topics in Public Policy: Strategic
Intelligence Collections and Analysis (Spring 2012)
 Focus Area: (Intel Continuum) Major component new
Security Studies Concentration in Humanities
• All Majors/Electives in Humanities Dept.
 2481 Intelligence and National Security Policy (prerequisite)
 NEW: 2464 Selected Topics in Public Policy: Strategic
Intelligence Collections and Analysis (Spring 2012)
 Focus Areas: Engineering Cadets/NSA-CG Crypto; Science Cadets
(MES/others in GIS classes)/NGA and CG-2/ICC support
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Course Outline
First segment: Intelligence Analysis
• What intel analysis should do and for whom
• What can go wrong in a big way
– Analytical reasoning and cognitive issues
(mindsets/biases/group think, etc.)
– Politicization/irrelevance
Books/Readings
• Richards J. Heuer, Jr., Psychology of Intelligence
Analysis
• George and Bruce, Analyzing Intelligence, Origins,
Obstacles and Innovations
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Course Outline
Second segment: Intelligence Collections
• Much emphasis put recently on intel analysis
– 9-11 Commission Report “connect the dots”
– Intel Reform and Terror Prevention Act 2004
– “Duelfer Report” Iraq WMD, key assumptions,
“Chronic Misperceptions”
• Understanding collections critical to intel analysis
• Intel collections (classified sources/methods)
– Obtaining info not readily available
– What makes intel analyst unique from policy analyst
• Studying two areas more gives cadets deeper dive
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Course Outline
Second segment: Intelligence Collections (cont.)
• Human Intelligence & Technical Intelligence
– Literal: Human communication (human sources)
– Non-literal: Non-human communications
• Signatures (measurement of non-literal data) and patterns
(analysis of signatures)
• Platforms vs. sensors (satellite or UAV platform); Imagery,
Communications signals collected via sensors
Books:
• Mark Lowenthal, Intelligence from Secrets to Policy
• Robert M. Clark , Technical Collection of Intelligence
Guest Speakers:
• S/A Dave Britten, FBI, Senior Case Agent “Lakawanna Six”
• Mr. George Sims, National Reconnaissance Office (Secret)
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Introduction to Structured
Analytical Techniques (SATs)
Occurs between segments two and three
• Structured techniques do two things:
– Decompose the problem (break down a problem
set)
– Externalize or visualize (show elements and how
related
Book: Richards J. Heuer, Jr., and Randolph H. Pherson,
Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence
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Thoughts on SATs
Intelligence analysts must traverse a minefield of
potential errors. . .The risks in intelligence
analysis can never be eliminated, but one way to
minimize them is through more structured and
disciplined thinking about thinking. (John McLaughlin,
Senior Research Fellow, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International
Studies, Johns Hopkins University and former Deputy Director, Central
Intelligence Agency and Acting Direct of Central Intelligence, Forward in
Heuer, Pherson Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis)
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Advocacy for Scientific Methods
• Sherman Kent advocated application of the techniques
of “scientific” study of the past to analysis of complex
ongoing situations and estimates of likely future
events
• Kent had a profound impact on early generations of
analysts and his work continues to exert influence
among the analytic profession. (Jack Davis, Forward in Heuer,
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, 1999)
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Improves Collaboration and Team Performance
• . . .structured analytic techniques are the process by which
collaboration becomes most effective. . .
• Our experience is that this process helps to avoid the
multiple pitfalls and pathologies that often degrade the
performance of small teams or groups. . . (Richards J. Heuer, Jr.,
Presentation to the National Academy of Science, National Research Council
Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence
Analysis for National Security, Washington, DC, December 8, 2009.
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Combines Art and Science of Intelligence
One recurring element in successful debiasing procedures is
helping individuals to organize their thought processes
without losing the intuition and judgment that their tasks
require. (“Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral
Social Sciences Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve
Intelligence Analysis for National Security,” Report Brief, March 2011, Board on
Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social
Sciences and Education, National Research Council of the National Academies, The
National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.)
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What Kinds of SATs?
Source: Heuer, Pherson Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis
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Course Outline
• Last segment, practiced structured techniques
– Case Studies from Beebe, Pherson, Structured
Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis
• Colombia’s FARC attacks the U.S. Homeland
• Who murdered Jonathan Luna?
• Who Poisoned Karinna Moskalenko?
• Used: Structured Brainstorming; Star
Bursting; Red Hat Analysis; Multiple Scenario
Generation; Analysis of Competing
Hypotheses; Key Assumptions Check;
Indicators
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Final Exam/End of Semester
Simulation Exercise (SIMEX)
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Three days in classroom time w/homework
Open source info/data
Mumbai, India scenario (maritime element)
Simulates collaborative/team environment/tight
deadlines
• Unclear/ambiguous, incomplete info (REAL WORLD!)
• Deliverables:
– Individual Brief Item
– Small Team Deliverable
– Entire Group: Group Written Paper/Group Brief
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Run up to SIMEX/Final Tasking
• Told them I was most interested in process
• Told to show me “HOW” they came to conclusions
• Final deliverables
– Written bullets then written analysis
– Oral briefing for “senior policy maker”
SIMEX Cadet Participants
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1/c Alex Berg, Delta Company
1/c Andrew Gavelek, Charlie Company
1/c Justin Sikora, Alfa Company
2/c Annie Fecskovics, Hotel Company
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SIMEX Out Brief
 Discussed findings
 Discussed methods used to
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Brainstorm
Generate Hypotheses
Collaborate
Support conclusions
 Viewed real world Mumbai intel on SIPRNet
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CADET SLIDES
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In Summary
• Sound analytic thinking and good communication requires two
major things:
– Conceptualizing
• Focus/Statement of synthesis
• Develop argument/Advance a line of reasoning
– Crafting
• Plain talk/Efficient conveyance of ideas
• Writing that informs, persuades busy reader(s)
• Writing that stresses: clarity, speed, structure
(Analytic Thinking and Presentation for Intelligence Producers, CIA)
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Questions?
CDR Toni Gay
LCDR Duane Ripley
860-701-6297
860-701-6528
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