Transcript INTELLIGENCE LESSONS LEARNED how OSINT can help OPERATION ENDURING FREEDOM (OEF)

OPERATION ENDURING FREEDOM (OEF)
OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM (OIF)
INTELLIGENCE LESSONS LEARNED
how OSINT can help
OSS’ 04 OSINT and Global Issues
13 April 2004
Joe Mazzafro
APL STILO
UNCLASSIFIED
What Are We Going To Talk About?
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What Have We Observed?
What Have We Learned?
What Have We Relearned?
What Do We Need?
What Do “We” Think This All Means?
How Open Source Can Help
What Would I Like You To Take Away?
UNCLASSIFIED
The conflict in Afghanistan has taught us
more about the future of our military than a
decade of blue ribbon panels and thinkthank symposiums. These past two months
have shown that an innovative doctrine and
high-tech weaponry can shape and dominate
an unconventional conflict
George W. Bush
11 Dec 01
UNCLASSIFIED
National Security Advisor’s Five Lessons Learned
from OEF
• Wars of consequence are not relics of a bygone
era
• There is a need to enhance homeland security;
the military has a role in guarding CONUS
• We have to deny sanctuary to terrorists
• Terrorists and other adversaries can not achieve
access to weapons of mass destructions
• Global terror demands a global [coalition]
solution
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Condoleza Rice speaking @ SAIS on 29 Apr 02
UNCLASSIFIED
OIF Intelligence Lessons Learned
• JFCOM: SPEED KILLS; Intel (along with
logistics had trouble keeping up with the speed
of advance
• BOB SCALES: NEW STYLE OF WAR
– Smaller unit size, more maneuverability,
increased fire power
– Own the clock
– Cultural Awareness needed to contextualize
Situational Awareness
UNCLASSIFIED
What Have We Observed?
• The importance of Intel Prep of the Battlefield
• The positive effects of persistent ISR
• The importance accurate and available
geospacial information
• The significant value added of “eyes on target”
• The dramatic impact of EBT and the ability to
dynamically retarget
• There is a both a “home” and an
“away”element to fighting terrorism
• Internet is Al Qeda’s C2ISR backbone
UNCLASSIFIED
What Have We Learned?
• Effective use of multiple ISR systems requires
management and is comms intensive
• MASINT is an effective tool when
operationalized
• Technical sensors are not well suited for fixing
people in time and space
• High demand/low density systems continue to
negatively impact operations
• The poor interface between foreign and
domestic intel in our IC
UNCLASSIFIED
What Have We Learned (cont.) ?
• We lack basic intelligence on places where we
are likely to fight
– Geography, economy, political power structure, bios
• There are quality issues with certain IC
products
• Its hard to share classified intelligence with
coalition partners
• Reach Back for Intelligence didn’t work
UNCLASSIFIED
What Have We Relearned?
• The importance of ALL source analysis
• Integration/interoperability is the necessary
condition for data sharing; THEN YOU HAVE
TO WANT TO SHARE
• You have to understand what is not happening
too
• Intel is competing with ops & log for
bandwidth
• Open Sources are always there
UNCLASSIFIED
What Do We Need?
• More UAVs, especially ones that can be
controlled by tactical ground units
• Improved tactical SIGINT against cell phones
and email
• Tools for video exploitation
• Better data mining tools and regimes
• Inexpensive reliable ground sensors
• A better system for tracking maritime cargo
• Everybody says they need more HUMINT
– Language skills; cultural analysis Agents?
UNCLASSIFIED
What Do We Need?
(Continued)
• The means to deploy an optimal mix of
terrestrial, air breathing and space based ISR
assets
• Dedicated fusion centers for engaged forces
with state of the art integration and display
tech; more smart push
• Intel architectures, conops, TTPs, and systems
training (this is too complicated for OJT!)
UNCLASSIFIED
What Do “We” Think This All Means?
• HUMINT is often oversold
• As weapon sys become more “intel centric” the
importance of ISR increases proportionately
• The concept of “shooter to sensor” is emerging
• Speed matters
• Intel foot print forward must be reduced
• Knowledge is like productivity: means you can
do more with less
• IC no longer has a monopoly on relevant info
UNCLASSIFIED
How can Open Source Help?
• Provide context for understanding classified
reporting
• Instant competitive analysis
• Fill data gaps;provide external QA
• Reduce size of intel footprint
• Availability and shareability
• Adversary perceptions and reactions if not
intentions
UNCLASSIFIED
What Would I Like You To Take
Away?
• Think of Intel as a modern gun director
– OSINT is an important input
• When the IC doesn’t deliver, Operators will
find other sources
– IC’s monopoly is over
• Its not All Source without OPEN SOURCE
• Good Intel is like air, comms, and avgas:
YOU DON’T MISS IT UNTIL YOU DON’T
HAVE IT
UNCLASSIFIED