Iran's Foreign Policy

Iran's Foreign policy, Maleki Abbas Maleki 1

The sequence of steps of Decision Making

 1. Defining the problem;  2. Classifying the problem;  3. Specifying answers to the problem;  4. Delineating a course of action to resolve the problem; and,  5. Testing the effectiveness of the decision, against the probable course of events Iran's Foreign policy, Maleki 2

Consider “routes” with “signs”

      No decision is possible without following a defining rule; Rules and strategies affect choice; the use of different decision rules (analytic, cybernetic, or cognitive) or “mixed” strategies (such as analytic–cybernetic) influence the outcome; The way issues are “framed” and “counter framed” to the public by the political leader or opposition are also likely to affect the choices; Rules for how individual preferences are aggregated into collective opinion affect choices; The comprehensiveness of the information available affects the choices; The order in which information is processed affects the outcome Iran's Foreign policy, Maleki 3

What is the goal of a Political Decision Maker

 (1) maximizes or satisfies utility,  (2) engages in a holistic search,  (3) makes detailed calculations, or  (4) consists of simplifying heuristics bound by framing effects Iran's Foreign policy, Maleki 4

Rational Approach

 The rational actor model assumes optimisation within a global sphere of interaction, with the assumptions of market economics driving the society/polity Iran's Foreign policy, Maleki 5

Disciplines of Rationality Model

       Cognitive psychologists focus on how normative behaviours are chosen by individuals; Sociologists focus on social structures, values, and norms; Anthropologists debate formalist economics (rationality) versus substantive economics (where religious values and social considerations outweigh economic and political gain); Political scientists focus on the predominance of political factors and political institutions in decision making; Economists focus on maximizing wealth while subject to various constraints; Finance theorists focus on the imperfect behaviour of markets and the capacity to profit during market perturbations; and, Marketing strategists “frame” consumer choices that lead to rational behaviour choices Iran's Foreign policy, Maleki 6

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The High Council for National Security

   (HCNS) was created under the 1988 supplementary constitution. The Iranian President heads the HCNS, which integrates the institutions of power. The HCNS brings together (1) two representatives from the Supreme Leader, (2) the Heads of the three branches of government, (3) the Ministers of Foreign Affairs, Interior, Intelligence, Defence, and (4) the Commanders of the Regular and Revolutionary Military sections Iran's Foreign policy, Maleki 9

Iran’s Foreign policy Preferences

 The Constitution of the Islamic Republic makes clear Iran’s preferences in foreign policy.  Four groups of countries are ranked in preference: (1) Iran’s neighbours; (2) Muslim countries; (3) Third World countries; (4) countries that furnish political, economic, social and/or military needs of Iran.

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Iran and its Subregions

 Middle East  Persian Gulf  South West Asia  Central Asia, Caucasus, and Afghanistan  Caspian Basin Iran's Foreign policy, Maleki 11

World Energy Security (1)

 -A perception is World should be concerned about its energy security given recent developments in the Middle East.  -Reality is that despite a war in the Middle East, World has not faced problems with its energy supplies.  -Over these past months, there were never any disruption of oil supplies from the Persian Gulf beyond Iraq and what’s more. Iran's Foreign policy, Maleki 12

World Energy Security (2)

 Saudi Arabia and other Gulf OPEC producers significantly increased production to fill the gap.

 -Reality is that the market remains well-supplied.  -The Persian Gulf continues to be the home of the most easily exploited and cost-effective petroleum reserves in the world.

 Persian Gulf natural resources are undergirding the phenomenal economic rise of India and China.

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The Significance of Iran

    -Over the past 90 years Iran, with its huge oil and gas reserves representing 9 and 13 percent of those of the world. -Its economy is based on oil export revenues, which contribute as much as 80 percent of its total export earnings and 40-50 percent of the government budget. -In recent years, Iran has held a share in OPEC production of 13-14 percent. -In order to maintain this share, it needs not only to counterbalance the natural decline in the present production, but also to meet the requirements for additional production capacities.

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Iran’s Membership in Regional/International Organizations

 United Nations and its institutions  ECO (Economic Cooperation Organization)  OPEC (Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries)  ICO (Islamic Conference Organization)  North-South Corridor  D8 (Islamic Developed Countries)  Non-Aligned Movement Iran's Foreign policy, Maleki 15

Proposed Clubs for Iran

 SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization)  GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council)  Arab League Iran's Foreign policy, Maleki 16

Iran and Initiated Regional Organization

 Persian States Countries: Iran, Afghanistan, Tajikistan  Caspian Cooperation Organization:  Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan Shi’a Nations Rim: 1-Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Bahrain 2-Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Lebanon, Afghanistan Iran's Foreign policy, Maleki 17

Iran and Europe (1)

   Member ship of each central or Eastern Europe countries to EU means a new demand for Energy.

Europe is surrounded by the sea of gas, most important of them: Russia, Iran and Qatar.

In the Cold War era, with political motivation, Europe preferred to follow the Soviet gas pipeline instead of the cheap and costless Iranian gas.

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Iran and Europe (2)

 Now again, because of US extraterritorial rules like ILSA, the oil and gas companies can not invest more than 20 million dollars in Iran's energy industries.  The gas pipeline from Central Asia to Iran then Europe is a key project in trilateral cooperation among three regions. The physibility study of the two routes from Iran to Europe via Turkey and Ukraine had been done.

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Iran and Europe (3)

 -An expanded pipeline consortium with governments participation in the Caspian -Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran (KTI) is one option (TotalFinaElf Project)   -Azerbaijan, Iran (Tabriz), Turkey (Ceyhan).

Dialogue on Human Rights Collective Security in Iran’s Subregions: -Persian Gulf -Caucasus -The Roof of the World Iran's Foreign policy, Maleki 20

What can Iranian Government do?

  Easy visa for all of nationals, esp. Americans Expand knowledge about Iran’s model among Arab countries:

A modern approach with respect to the



past, tradition and Islam

Working more on mutual understanding of security with each of the Persian Gulf Countries.

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Tendencies on Iran’s Future

   The 20-Year Perspectives produced by all of the decision makers within Iran concentrate on “Iran as a Regional Power”.

The Five Year Plans also define strategies to reach to a level of strength, ability and legitimacy as a regional power.

The key internal players as new Parliament Member, Mayor, Head of IRIB, and Judiciary believe Iran must be strong if wants to be secure in turbulent atmosphere of the region.

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