Transcript NSF and Space Weather Presentation to the Space Weather Assessment Group
NSF and Space Weather
Presentation to the Space Weather Assessment Group July 7, 2005 Rich Behnke
The National Space Weather Program
NSWP was initiated in 1994 when community leaders approached NSF with concept of new emphasis on “space weather”
Space Weather
The Time had Come
• •
Space weather was ready for major scientific advances
• powerful computing capabilities and techniques becoming available • new space-based and ground-based observations
Society’s vulnerability to space weather rapidly increasing
• more space-based assets • • sophisticated technologies more susceptible more reliance on technology
What Exited before the National Space Weather Program
• • No “interagency” system • DoD, NOAA, NASA, DoE, USGS, NSF acted separately • 5-year plan through Office of Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services & Supporting Research (OFCM) merely catalogued existing capabilities No active coordinated process to set national priorities and focus interagency efforts
Need for a National Space Weather Program
• • • • • • • • Identify customer needs Set priorities Determine agency roles Coordinate interagency activities Ensure exchange of information and plans Encourage and focus research Facilitate transition of research results into operation Help educate the next generation of space scientists
National Space Weather Program
CHRONOLOGY
1993 • 1994 • • • • • • • • • •
Fall--Community develops idea of a coordinated Space Weather Program (Siscoe, Lotko, Hildner, Lanzerotti, Killeen)
Fall -- Quantitative Magnetospheric Modeling Program developed by NASA Fall--informal talks at NSF AGU (Fall 93) lunch meeting (practice for NSF presentation) Dec 20--Community presentation to Bob Corell at NSF (AD/GEO)
March 2--NSF hosts Space Weather Working Supper, for 30 leaders from academe, industry, and government agencies
June 16--NSF hosts interagency follow-up meeting for 9 agency leaders (OFCM is considered as appropriate coordination vehicle) Aug 11--Meeting (NSF, DoD, NRC/NAS) at OFCM to discuss strategy Sept 13--First Ad-hoc working group meeting at NSF--decision to petition OFCM to become an official Working Group under OFCM Ad-hoc Working Group meetings (Sep 15, 22, Oct 6, 11)
Oct 13--Presentation to OFCM--Working Group proposal accepted
Space Weather
refers to conditions on the sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, and ionosphere/ thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space borne and ground-based technological systems, and endanger human life. Space weather storms can cause disruption of satellites, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids.
National Space Weather Program Overall Goal and Vision
• •
The main idea of the NSWP is to develop a system to prevent or reduce space weather disasters The Strategic Plan calls for: “An active, synergistic, interagency, ‘single-minded’ system to achieve the goal of timely, accurate, and reliable space environment observations, specifications, and forecasts in the next 10 years
US Agencies: DOD, NASA, NOAA, NSF, DOI, DOE, FAA
National Space Weather Program Goals
• •
To advance
• • • • • • • observing capabilities fundamental understanding of processes numerical modeling data processing and analysis forecasting accuracy and reliability space weather products and services education on space weather effects
In order to prevent
• under- or over-design of technical systems • • • regional blackouts of power utilities early demise of multi-million dollar satellites disruption of communications via satellite, HF, and VHF radio • • errors in navigation systems excessive radiation doses dangerous to human health
NSWP Elements
• • • • • •
Improve accuracy, reliability, and timeliness of forecasts and specification Support basic research on physical processes of the coupled sun earth system Ensure that critical ground- and space-based observations are available Develop end-to-end, physics-based models with predictive capabilities and user-friendly interfaces Focus educational efforts toward forecasters, engineers, students, customers, and the general public Ensure technology transition and integration of research and models into operation systems
Relation between science and applications
New paradigm
Pure basic research (Bohr) Use-inspired basic research (Pasteur) Pure applied research (Edison) Quest for understanding Consideration of use
The National Space Weather Program
Agencies Working Together Key Stakeholders
NSF Defense Commerce (NOAA) NSWP NASA (Living With A Star) Energy Transportation (FAA) Interior (USGS)
National Space Weather Program
Agencies Working Together
Customers
Communications, Satellite Operations, Power Grids, Manned Spaceflight, Navigation Feedback Dissemination Feedback
Forecasting and Warning Services
( NOAA, DOD)
Research
Technology Transition and Integration
Observations Models
(NSF, NASA, NOAA, DOD, DOE)
Education
The National Space Weather Program
A three-dimensional approach...
Sun Solar Wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Thermosphere Earth
National Space Weather Program Administrative Structure
Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology Space Weather Program Council Committee for Space Weather Implementation Plan Update Metric s CCMC and RPCs Research Competitions Int’l Activities Coordination with LWS Space Architect Transition Plan Other
New NSWP Implementation Plan
•
Produced by Committee for Space Weather (cochairs: NSF, DOD and NOAA) working on regular basis
•
Completed July 2000 The National Space Weather Program
Update to the Implementation Plan
The National Space Weather Program
External Review of the Implementation Plan • Presentations to AGU • Presentations to the National Academy • Review by the National Academy • Presentations to CEDAR and GEM communities
What’s in the Implementation Plan Update?
• • • • • • • • • • •
A description of the NSWP goals, program elements, strategies A review of current Space Weather capabilities-observations and models A description of Space Weather metrics A summary of funded Space Weather awards A description of future observational capabilities, both research and operational Timelines for operational and research missions and model development A statement of near-term NSWP priorities A description of progress in transitioning research to operations A description of NSWP educational activities A description of NSWP Program Management and Agency Roles Appendices describing research objectives, Living With a Star, and the National Security Space Architect study
Who wrote the NSWP Implementation Plan Update?
Everyone!
• • • • • • • • •
Contains portions of the NSWP Strategic Plan written by agency reps in 1994 and 1995 Contains portions of the NSWP Implementation Plan written by agency reps in 1996 and 1997 Section on metrics written by NSF-appointed Metrics Working Group Community input for descriptions of models and observations Section on education written by Space Science Institute and SEC Section on Living With a Star written by NASA reps Section on Space Architect study written by DoD reps Integration of text performed by Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology in coordination with NSF, NOAA, NASA, and DoD Research objectives written by NSF-appointed working group which met in 1995
Ionosphere Model (I18, I21, I23) Empirical Thermosphere Model (I14) Ionospheric Conductivity Model (I26-I31) Assimilative Empirical High Latitude E-Field Model (I1-I12) Data-Driven Climatolgy Scintillation Model (I25)
Global Magnetic Indices
:
Model Integration, Data Validation and Assimilation
: MURI CCMC RPCs Time-dependent Ionosphere Model (I16,I19,I20, I22) Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics Model (I15,I18) Nested and Adaptive Grid Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (I17) Statistical Low & Mid-Latitude E-Field Model (I14) Dst, Kp, Ae forecast Statistical Low & Mid-Latitude E-Field Model with Storms and Substorms (I13) Physics-Based High Latitude E-Field Model (M17-M21) Physics-Based Scintillation Model (I24) Coupled Magnetosphere Ionosphere/ Thermosphere Model with E-Fields ( M21) •SuperDARN •Riometers •Incoherent Scatter Radars •Ground-based Optical Instruments •AGOs ARGOS MSX POLAR FAST GLO ASTRID-2 SNOE ØRSTED IMAGE TIMED Relocatable Atmospheric Observatory COSMIC C/NOFS GEC E-Field Satellite Constellation LWS Ionospheric Mappers 1999 2004 Ionosphere/Thermosphere Timeline 2009
NSWP Research Priorities 1996 1997 1999 2000 Understanding and prediction Understanding and prediction Understanding and prediction of processes affecting solar of processes affecting solar of processes affecting solar Understanding and prediction of processes affecting solar activity, such as coronal mass ejections and solar flares Coupling between the solar wind and the magnetosphere activity, such as coronal mass ejections and solar flares Coupling between the solar wind and the magnetosphere activity, such as coronal mass ejections and solar flares Coupling between the solar wind and the magnetosphere activity, such as coronal mass ejections and solar flares Coupling between the solar wind and the magnetosphere and between the magnetosphere and ionosphere The origin and energization of The origin and energization of The origin and energization of The origin and energization of magnetospheric plasma magnetospheric plasma magnetospheric plasma magnetospheric plasma The triggering and temporal evolution of substorms and storms The evolution of ionospheric irregularities and scintillations Thermospheric dynamics and its coupling to the ionosphere The triggering and temporal evolution of substorms and storms Improved global ionospheric specification and forecast and the evolution of ionospheric irregularities, including the onset of low latitude ionospheric irregularities Improved specification of thermospheric dynamics neutral densities and The triggering and temporal evolution of substorms and storms Improved global ionospheric specification and forecast and the evolution of ionospheric irregularities, including the onset of low latitude ionospheric irregularities, with particular emphasis on those processes affecting communication and navigation systems Improved specification of thermospheric dynamics and neutral densities The triggering and temporal evolution of substorms and storms Improved global ionospheric specification and forecast and the evolution of ionospheric irregularities, including the onset of low latitude ionospheric irregularities, with particular emphasis on those processes affecting communication and navigation systems Improved specification of thermospheric dynamics and neutral densities Validation and enhancement of ionospheric and magnetospheric models, including data assimilation techniques, to improve operational forecasting and specification capabilities Validation and enhancement of ionospheric and magnetospheric models, including data assimilation techniques, to improve operational forecasting and specification capabilities Modelers who wish to implement and run codes at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) in order to accomplish any of the above objectives may include these activities in their proposals.
NSWP Metrics
• • • •
Need to establish metrics against which quantitative goals can be defined and against which progress can be measured.
What are the parameters and events to be predicted? Where are we in terms of model and measurement capabilities?
What level of prediction accuracy, timeliness, etc. is required?
NSWP -- Metrics Panels
Solar-Interplanetary T. Bastien J. Davils S. Habbal J. Harvey E. Hildner* T. Hocksema S. Kahler J. Klimchuk* J. Lean J. Linker* D. Neidig* V. Pizzo* Magnetosphere Ionosphere J. Albert D. Baker W. Burke*(-4/98) J. Horwitz J. Lyon T. Onsager J. Raeder J. Rochier H. Singer* T. Tascione* D. Vassiliadis R. Wolf* Ionosphere Thermosphere D. Anderson S. Basu W. Denig D. Farley B. Fejer* T. Fuller-Rowell R. Heelis* T. Killeen* F. Marcos R. Meier P. Richards R. Schunk E. Szuszczewicz*
* Initial panel membership responsible for generating first draft in Fall, 1997.
Metrics Example
36-h 500-mb Operational Forecast over North America
EMC
Ionosphere-Thermosphere Metric
For each of the four i.s. radars determine: 1 24 21
t
0
h
600 23 200 , 20
n o
;
t
n m
;
t
2 1 2 Where
n o;t (h) n m;t (h)
is the observed density at altitude
h
and time is the corresponding model value. RMS error in the
t
and density measured/computed hourly at 21 altitudes, averaged over 24 hours.
(Allowed inputs for the models include A p , K p , F10.7, and all normally available satellite data.)
100 80 60 40 20 0 0 Ionosphere-Thermosphere Metric 24 48 Month 72 96 120
National Space Weather Program
NSF’s Role
• • • • • • Catalyst for interagency cooperation and community development • Example: AGU Space Weather journal Support of basic research underpinnings (about half or our space physics funding) Over 150 new focused space weather awards since 1996 New Science and Technology Center (CISM) devoted to space weather modeling Support to other major modeling efforts (CCMC) New Observational platforms – Advanced Modular Incoherent Scatter Radar, the ATST, and, hopefully, DASI
4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
FY96
Contributions to Space Weather Funding NSF Aeronomy NSF Solar/Solar Wind Office of Naval Research NSF Upper Atmospheric Facilities NSF Magnetospheric Physics Air Force Office of Scientific Research NSF Office of Polar Programs
FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05
Total number of awards: 398 average duration 3.3 years
Total: $153,407,195
The National Space Weather Program
Some Early NSF Activities • • • • • • • Basic Research Competition (with ONR and AFOSR) for 1997 • $1 M available, 63 proposals, 16 funded Support for Grant “Matching User Needs and Space Weather Service Capabilities” Support for Grant “Determining Space Weather Requirements for the U.S. Commercial Space Community” Support for Workshop on Space Weather Effects on Communication and Navigation (Sept. 97) Support for educational outreach effort Support to National Academy (CSTR) for annual review of NSWP science plan Informal meeting at IAGA (Uppsala) to pursue international Space Weather program
NSF Space Weather Activities
more recent NSF Activities • • • • • • • CISM AMISR and other Ground-based Facilities Annual Space Weather proposal competition— with AFOSR and ONR CCMC AGU Space Weather Journal Metrics formulation and challenges CSW activities: co-chair and member, tracking of progress, web site development
More Examples of NSWP Research Awards
• • • • • • • • • A study of solar prominences and model calculations of the solar mag field Development of adaptive grids for coupled models Use of Iridium satellites to determine instantaneous auroral boundary position Modeling ionospheric convection and thermospheric composition End to end modeling of space weather during geomagnetic storms CCMC computers, metrics studies IMAX film, Space Weather Workshops, space weather educational activities Kevin Forbes studyl CCMC computers, metrics studies
Real-time convection map
CME Tracking using Interplanetary Scintillations (IPS)
This Carrington maps (with heliographic longitude and Carrington rotation number on the horizontal, and latitude on the vertical axis) show solar wind density at the distance of the Earth from the Sun on 2001/06/05 16 UT . The values to the left of the dashed line are those forecast to arrive at Earth at the dates indicated above the map. The density at the Earth are shown as traces at the bottom of the display. The maps are derived from a corotating model of the solar wind that is fit to interplanetary scintillation (IPS) velocities and g-levels received daily from STELab, Japan. The display is updated hourly. (ref: B. Jackson, M. Kojima et al.)
Space Weather and the Real-Time Price on the California ISO Real Time Electricity Market ( Sept 20-24 1999)
Dst index is an indicator of geomagnetic disturbance. Magnetic storms create strongly negative index .
Hour (Pacific Daylight Time)
Science – 3 Examples
• • •
Nature of Solar X-ray Sigmoids Ionospheric ion outflow TEC: Data and Modeling
Observed Xray sigmoid
Gibson et al, 2002
Nature of Solar X-ray Sigmoids • X-ray sigmoids (S-shaped hot plasmas) are observed to be sites of solar eruptions (flares and coronal mass ejections) • MHD theory suggests that X-ray sigmoid brightenings are enhanced heating at electric current sheets forming between winding and non-winding magnetic fields • 3D MHD simulation (below) shows that an emerging twisted magnetic flux rope drives the formation of current sheets reproducing observed X-ray sigmoid morphology Simulation of emerging writhing magnetic flux rope
Fan and Gibson, 2003
The simulated current sheet
t
58 |
j
| Fan / Gibson
Ionospheric ion outflow
• • During large magnetic storms large flows of ions are observed to come out of the ionosphere and enhance the ring current.
The factors that appear to determine the outflow flux are: • DC Poynting flux (field aligned electric currents) • Alfvén Poynting flux • Precipitating electron flux Red points show dayside events, blue show nightside events, black points are averaged over the orbit of the FAST satellite (R. Strangeway, UCLA, ATM 0208498).
TEC: Data and Modeling
TEC derived indirectly from GPS attenuation or directly by incoherent scatter radar (ISR), satellite (DMSP) and ionosonde networks is being assimilated to provide the global TEC picture.
A major source of Communication and Navigation Disturbances results from Total Electron Content (TEC) variations in the column between GPS transmitters and receivers Onset of the 2003 “Halloween Storm” generates a plume of ionization after sunset as detected by EISCAT and Sonde ISRs, and by DMSP. The plume does not extend to Millstone Hill. [J. Foster and J. Holt, ATM-9919598, ATM-0207748]
Center for Integrated Space Weather Modelng (CISM)
An NSF Science and Technology Center Boston University and consortium
Space Weather School
Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) • The Center for Integrated Space- Weather Modeling (CISM) conducts a summer school for 2 weeks each year to introduce graduate students to the issues and problems of space weather modeling.
Participants in the Space Weather school, summer 2001 (W.J. Hughes, Boston Univ., ATM 0000950, 0120950)
Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)
NASA NOAA AFWA AFOSR NSF • An interagency partnership to facilitate the development, validation, and testing of space weather models, which can eventually be transferred to Rapid Prototyping Centers to adapt for operational use • Bridges the gap between research and operations
IMAX Film -- SolarMax
•
Was shown at Air and Space Museum
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Very well received by AGU audiences
•
Highly visible credit to NSF
Space Weather Science -- the bottomline
“While it is true that important applications will result from the National Space Weather Program, the science that will result will be first rate... Indeed, the initiative provides a context in which much of solar-terrestrial physics can and should be done” -- Louis Lanzerotti
Space Weather Publications
Publications with "Space Weather" in title or abstract 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1985 1987 NSWP started 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 Year
Advanced Modular Incoherent Scatter Radar (AMISR):
A Global Incoherent Scatter Radar
• • •
A transportable upper atmospheric radar PI: Dr. John Kelly, SRI International Total construction cost: $44,000,000 over 4 years
AMISR – What is it?
• • • • • • • AMISR is: the first state-of-the art phased array incoherent scatter radar deployable to any geographic location on the globe a tool to measure composition, temperature, density and motion of the Earth’s ionosphere and upper atmosphere capable of 3-D imaging of the ionosphere via the use of multiple beams with electronic steering completely modular: 3 faces – each face made up of 128 panels (a total of 12,288 active transmit/receive elements). all solid state – easy maintenance Can be operated remotely from any classroom or laboratory with a computer and the Internet
AMISR in Poker Flat
ATST – Advanced Technology Solar Telescope Science Drivers: • Resolution – ~7X improvement • Light grasp – 10X improvement (
solar physics is actually photon starved in some experiments)
Technical Specifications: • 4 m, off-axis Gregorian (all reflective), alt-az mount.
•
Integrated adaptive optics
.
• Hybrid enclosure.
• 0.3-28 microns (near-UV through thermal IR).
• FOV: 3 arcminutes (5 arcminute goal).
• Angular resolution < 0.03 arcsecond.
• Polarization accuracy < 0.01%.
• Scattered Light < 1% of photosphere (sunspots); coronographic in IR.
• Two rotating Coude laboratories.
• Internal seeing and dust mitigation.
22 Collaborative Institutions with NSO PI.
Co PIs: HAO, NJIT, U Chicago, U Hawai’i
DASI
Distributed Arrays of Small Instruments
Technology: ITR, Miniaturization EPO Opportunities GPS Receivers Optical Imagers Interferometers Magnetometers Passive Radar Riometers Neutron Monitors Scintillation and VLF Rx Tomography Receivers
The Sun to the Earth —and Beyond
A Decadal Research Strategy in Solar and Space Physics Challenge 5: Developing a near-real-time predictive capability for understanding and quantifying the impact on human activities of dynamical processes at the Sun, in the interplanetary medium, and in Earth’s magnetosphere and ionosphere.
“An effective response to these challenges will require a carefully crafted program of space- and ground-based observations combined with, and guided by, comprehensive theory and modeling efforts.”
Space Weather is at the frontier of research
Solar and space physics in colleges and universities
Recommendation:
the NSF and NASA should jointly establish a program of "bridged positions" that provides (through a competitive process) partial salary, startup funding, and research support for four new faculty members per year for 5 years.
Faculty Initiative
• We made eight (8!) awards for new
tenure-track faculty positions
within the intellectual disciplines which comprise the space sciences. (We only promised to make 3.) But many really good proposals needed to be declined.
• Winners:
Arizona, Colorado, Dartmouth, George Mason, Hawaii, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Penn State,Virginia Tech
• The primary aim of these awards is to develop space physics graduate programs capable of training the next generation of leaders in this field.
Recent Competitions have not provided enough student support so we are adding the following to CEDAR, GEM, SHINE and NSWP announcements: “The NSF is deeply concerned about the education of the next generation of space physics researchers. This solicitation therefore encourages proposals that address the education of PhD students and provides for direct involvement of students at the undergraduate and graduate levels. The proposed educational involvement should be specified as clearly as possible.”
• • • • •
E- courses
Many of our space physics fields have a subcritical number of students at any particular school We need to have our best professors teach courses in ionosphere studies, magnetosphereic physics, solar studies, incoherent scatter, optics, etc to the extended classroom The classes can be taught over the web or through the Access Grid Classes should have a multi-university agreement to be accredited at all participating univerisities This will happen!
New joint funding with NASA on some targeted space weather areas planned
• • • • • Joint NSF/NASA announcement planned in early Fall 2005 One set of reviewers and one panel Targeted areas include M-I coupling, propagation of discontinuities in the solar wind NSF part must have an academic institution with student involvement Awards will be for up to $500K/yr for up to 5 years
National Space Weather Program
ISSUES
• • • Industrial participants are reluctant to reveal sensitivities of existing systems to the space environment DoD is constrained as to the extent to which they can discuss requirements Transitioning applicable research results to operational capabilities remains underfunded
What has the NSWP done?
• • • • • •
Brought government agencies together Created a high priority national program resulting in increased visibility and funding at several agencies Defined a focus for meetings and workshops Motivated recent media attention Inspired new scientific studies and collaborations Prevented impacts on humans and technical systems from space environmental effects
Advances in Understanding Space Weather -- Agency Synergy
• • •
NASA: Living With a Star
Space Weather Research Satellites
NSF: Ground-based instruments
IS radars; Optical facilities; SuperDarn Advanced Modular IS Radar Advanced Technology Solar Telescope (being studied as future AST MRE candidate)
New modeling techniques (NSF, NASA, DOD)
Coupling predictive models of individual regimes Joint agency Community Coordinated Modeling Center DoD MURI NSF Science and Tech Center – Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling Center for Space Environment Modeling (U. of Michigan) High speed models, adaptive grids
Key Elements of the NSWP
Good Science: Prediction is the ultimate test of knowledge
many of the goals are identical to those endorsed by the NAS in “A Science Strategy for Space Physics.” New NAS decadal study has begun and the role of space weather will be a central feature.
Multi- disciplinary: The space environment is a truly coupled system from the sun to the earth Relevant: Responsive to both civilian and DoD needs Community-driven: A grass roots effort from the beginning Appealing to the Public: Has received much recent media attention
IMAX movie
, Christian Science Monitor, Chicago Tribune, Washington Post, Dallas Morning News, Discover, Time, AGU News Conference
Multi- agency: DoD, NSF, NOAA, NASA, DOE, DOI International: Canada, Pacific Rim, Europe, FSU all interested Achievable: The community poised to address the outstanding problems
The National Space Weather Program Summary
• •