Transcript The Future Of The Middle East Wayne Radinsky Boulder Future Salon 2011-03-26

The Future Of The Middle East
Wayne Radinsky
Boulder Future Salon
2011-03-26
Oil Exports

Saudi Arabia – 8,728,000 barrels/day

Iran – 2,400,000

Iraq – 1,910,000

Algeria – 1,891,000

Libya – 1,542,000

Oman – 573,000

Sudan – 303,800

Yemen – 274,400
Oil Exports (cont'd)

Bahrain – 238,300

Syria – 155,000

Egypt – 89,300

Tunisia – 77,130

Morocco – 17,420

Djibouti – 19

All others – 0
Unemployment Rate

Yemen – 35%

Mauritania – 30

Libya – 30

Sudan – 18.70

Iraq – 15.30

Oman – 15

Bahrain – 15
Unemployment (cont'd)

Iran – 14.6

Tunisia – 14

Jordan – 13.40

Saudi Arabia – 10.8

Algeria – 9.9

Egypt – 9.7

Syria – 8.3
GDP Growth

Yemen – 8.0%

Egypt – 5.1

Sudan – 5.1

Mauritania – 4.7

Djibouti – 4.5

Oman – 4.2

Libya – 4.2

Bahrain
– 4.1
GDP Growth (cont'd)

Saudi Arabia – 3.7%

Tunisia
– 3.7

Algeria
– 3.3

Syria – 3.2

Morocco – 3.2

Jordan – 3.1

Iran – 1.0

Iraq – 0.8
Population

Egypt – 82,079,700

Iran – 77,891,300

Iraq – 30,399,600

Saudi Arabia – 26,131,800

Yemen – 24,133,500

Syria – 22,517,800

Tunisia – 10,629,200

Libya – 6,598,0001
Population Growth Rate

Bahrain – 2.81 %/year

Yemen – 2.65

Sudan – 2.48

Iraq – 2.399

Mauritania – 2.35

Djibouti – 2.24

Libya – 2.06

Oman – 2.02
Population Growth Rate (cont'd)

Egypt – 1.96

Saudi Arabia – 1.54

Iran – 1.234

Morocco – 1.07

Jordan – 0.98

Tunisia – 0.98

Syria – 0.91

Lebanon – 0.24
Life Expectancy

Jordan – 80.05

Bahrain – 78.15

Libya – 77.65

Lebanon – 75.01

Tunisia – 75.01

Syria – 74.69

Oman – 74.22

Saudi Arabia – 74.11
Life Expectancy (cont'd)

Egypt – 72.66

Iraq – 70.55

Iran – 70.06

Yemen – 63.74

Djibouti – 61.14

Sudan – 55.42
Median Age

Yemen – 18.1

Mauritania – 19.5

Iraq – 20.9

Djibouti – 21.8

Syria – 21.9

Jordan – 22.1

Oman – 24.1

Egypt – 24.3
Median Age (cont'd)

Libya – 24.5

Saudi Arabia – 25.3

Morocco – 26.9

Algeria – 27.6

Tunisia – 30

Sudan – 30

Bahrain – 30
Religion

Saudi Arabia – 100% Muslim

Mauritania – 100% Muslim



Yemen – Muslim including Shaf'i (Sunni) and Zaydi
(Shia), small numbers of Jewish, Christian, and
Hindu
Algeria – 99% Muslim, Christian and Jewish 1%
Tunisia – 98% Muslim, 1% Christian, 1% Jewish
and other
Religion (cont'd)




Sudan – 98% Muslim, 1% Christian, 1% Jewish and
other
Iran – 98% Muslim (89% Shia, 9% Sunni), 2%
Zoroastrian, Jewish, Christian, and Baha'i
Libya – 97% Sunni Muslim, 3% other
Iraq – Religion 97% Muslim (60-65% Shia, 32-37%
Sunni), 3% Christian or other. The Christian
population has dropped by 50 percent since the fall
of the Saddam Hussein regime in 2003, with many
fleeing to Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon.
Religion (cont'd)





Djibouti – 94% Muslim, 6% Christian
Jordan – 92% Sunni Muslim, 6% Christian, 2%
other including Shia Muslim and Druze
Egypt – 90% Muslim (mostly Sunni), Coptic 9%,
other Christian 1%
Bahrain – 81.2% Muslim, 9% Christian, 9.8% other
Oman – 75% Ibadhi Muslim, 25% Sunni Muslim,
Shia Muslim, and Hindu
Religion (cont'd)

Syria – 74% Sunni Muslim, 16% Shia, Alawite, and
Druze Muslim, 10% Christian, tiny Jewish
communities in Damascus
Ethnicity



Egypt – 99.4% Egyptian, 0.4% other
Algeria – 99% Arab-Berber, European < 1%, almost
all Algerians are Berber in origin, not Arab; the
minority who identify themselves as Berber live
mostly in the mountainous region of Kabylie east of
Algiers; the Berbers are also Muslim but identify
with their Berber rather than Arab cultural heritage;
Berbers have long agitated, sometimes violently, for
autonomy
Morocco – 99.1% Arab-Berber, Jewish 0.2%
Ethnicity (cont'd)



Tunisia – 98% Arab, 1% European, 1% Jewish and
other
Jordan – 98% Arab, 1% Circassin, 1% Armenian
Libya – 97% Berber and Arab, 3% Greeks, Maltese,
Italians, Egyptians, Pakistanis, Turks, Indians,
Tunisians

Syria – 90.3% Arab, 9.7% Kurds and Armenians

Saudi Arabia – 90% Arab, 10% African and Asian

Iraq – 75%-80% Arab, 15%-20% Kurdish, 5%
Turkoman, Assyrian, or other
Ethnicity (cont'd)





Bahrain – 62.4% Bahraini, 37.6% other
Djibouti – 60% Somali, 35% Afar, 5% French, Arab,
Ethiopian, and Italian
Iran – 51% Persion, 24% Azeri, 8% Gilaki and
Mazandarani, 7% kURD, 3% Arab, 2% Lur, 2%
Baloch, 2% Turkmen, 1% other
Sudan – 50% black, 39% Arab, 6% Beja, 3% other
Mauritania – 40% mixed Moor & black, 30% Moor,
black 30%
Ethnicity (cont'd)


Yemen – predominantly Arab; also Afro-Arab, South
Asians, Europeans
Oman – Arab, Baluchi, South Asian (Indian,
Pakistani, Sri Lankan, Bangladeshi), African
Languages





ARABIC is the official language for almost all
countries involved (all but Iran).
English understood by educated classes in Egypt,
Libya, Jordan, Bahrain, and Oman
French understood by educated classes in
Mauritania, Algeria, Morocco, Djibouti, Egypt, and
Syria.
Asian dialects like Farsi and Urdu understood by
some in Bahrain and Oman
Native dialects in many countries (e.g. Berber)
Historical Precedent? 1989


Pro-democracy demonstrators overthrew a string of
Soviet bloc communist dictatorships in a matter of
months through generally non-violent methods.
The movement arose in Poland when the opposition
group Solidarity rose to power and soon spread to
Hungary, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria,
and finally Romania, where the unrest turned more
violent and the dictator and his wife eventually faced
a firing squad.
1989 (cont'd)


Similarities: spontaneous, domino-like way in which
today's protests have migrated from one Arab
country to another.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel – who grew up
in East Germany and entered politics in 1989 –
claimed that Middle East protesters were "shaking
off their fear" just as Eastern Europeans had.
1989 (cont'd)


Differences: Eastern Europeans supported America
because it was the Soviet Union's sworn enemy,
while demonstrators in the Middle East are
suspicious of the U.S. (George Soros)
Middle East protests "have been uprisings against a
sclerotic and out of touch leadership" whereas in in
Eastern Europe "the change was much deeper,
systemic." (James Collins)
Historical Precedent: 1968?

In 1968, a year dominated by the war in Vietnam
and the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia, student
and worker protests convulsed countries ranging
from Mexico to Czechoslovakia to the U.S. Perhaps
the most high-profile rebellion occurred in France in
May, when students swarmed the streets, clashed
violently with police, and joined forces with
workers, paralyzing the French economy for several
weeks.
1968 (cont'd)


Similarities: "A largely leaderless revolt of the
young, and a government initially in disarray, ending
as the middle classes demanded a restoration of
order and the government regained control of the
situation." (Michael D. Mosettig)
French students, like the young Egyptian protesters,
rose up because they had bleak job prospects after
completing their studies. (Amiel Unger)
1968 (cont'd)

Differences: The 1968 protests "overthrew no
regime even temporarily and left some cultural
remnants of minimal historical importance." (George
Friedman) "The democracies that eventually arise
will produce regimes that will take their bearings
from their own culture, which means Islam."
Historical Precedent: 1948?

In 1848, a revolution in France triggered similar
uprisings in almost every other country in Europe.
Historians attribute the reform movements, which
were largely spearheaded by the middle class, to a
variety of causes ranging economic hardship to the
influence of nationalism, liberalism, and socialism.
The revolutions were largely unsuccessful. In
France, for example, protesters ousted the monarch
only to see the republic they created crumble shortly
thereafter. The German states failed to unite as they
had hoped.
1948 (cont'd)


Similarities: The Middle East protests, like the
revolutions of 1848, "are the product of multiple
changes – economic, technological, demographic –
and have taken on a distinctly different flavor and
meaning in each country." (Anne Applebaum).
The revolutions of 1848 failed in the near term, but
planted the seeds for change over a longer period.
By 1900, Bismarck had united Germany and France
had established its Third Republic.
Historical Precedent: NONE?

“New in Cairo 2011 is that it is now Arabs and
Muslims standing up in large numbers, with courage
and (for the most part) peaceful discipline, for basic
human dignity, against corrupt, oppressive rulers.
New in 2011 is the degree of decentered, networked
animation of the demonstrations, so that even the
best-informed observers there struggle to answer the
question 'who is organising this?'. New in 2011 is the
extraordinary underlying pressure of demography,
with half the population in most of these countries
being under 25.” (Timothy Garton Ash)
Cause: Price Of Food?
Price Of Food? (cont'd)

“Egypt is the world's largest importer of wheat, and
wheat prices have been rising. But the Egyptian
government also subsidizes staple food items: 70
percent of Egyptians rely on subsidized food. Since
the 2008 riots – which really were about bread – the
government has been keeping food prices for basics
relatively stable.” David Pollock (Washington
Institute For Near East Policy)
Cause: Generation Gap?

“Worldwide generational conflict will grow. Around
the planet young adults are asserting themselves in
the workplace and in political arenas. Protests
against entrenched governments will increase in
frequency and severity.” (Jon Tapscott, Jan. 7th
2011).
Generation Gap (cont'd)

“My young cousins who are in their 20’s and early
30’s are part of the Tahrir generation. Tahrir means
Liberation in Arabic. The world got to know the
Tahrir generation over a mere 18 day period in
which that generation rocked the foundation of the
status quo in the Middle East and perhaps beyond.
That generation reached adulthood in the age of
social media. Their brilliance, resourcefulness, and
organizational skills took down what was perceived
to be a rock solid 30 year regime in only 18 days.”
(Kai Falkenberg)
Cause: Satellite TV/Al-Jazeera?

“To my mind the Western press completely did not
deal with the problem of Al-Jazeera, which is still,
for the time being, the real leader of these
demonstrations, revolutions if you like. Al-Jazeera
turned its cameras from the first days of the
demonstrations to Tahrir Square and incited the
demonstrators against the regime.” – Zvi Mazel
(Former Israeli Ambassador to Egypt)
Cause: Wikileaks?
"Tunisia has been ruled by the same president for 22
years. He has no successor. […] President Ben Ali
[…] and his regime have lost touch with the
Tunisian people. They tolerate no advice or
criticism, whether domestic or international.
Increasingly, they rely on the police for control and
focus on preserving power. Corruption in the inner
circle is growing. […] The risks to the regime's
long-term stability are increasing." (Robert Godec,
US ambassador to Tunisia, July 2009, revealed by
Wikileaks)
Cause: Facebook?

“If all 85,000 Facebook attendees of tomorrow's
'Revolution Day' actually show up, Abdel Moneim
Said might have his theory [that the regional fallout
from Tunisia was little more than 'media
sensationalism'] to the test.” – TIME Magazine
reporter Abigail Hauslohner, January 24th, 2011, the
day before the Egyptian protests began.
Facebook (cont'd)

“The people who are signing up to protest on
Facebook aren’t the sort of people who’d normally
get involved in politics. In the past the activists have
often been Islamists, but now the Internet is reaching
out to a new generation.” – Mohammed Nabil
(Cairo University student)
Cause: other social media?

Cell phone towers deactivated in Egypt – no text
messaging

Twitter, Facebook, and Youtube blocked in Egypt

By Feb 2 – entire internet shut down in Egypt

Feb 3 – Egyptian government broadcasted their own
text messages
5 Future Scenarios
1.Rapid transition to democracy (what everyone hopes
for)
2.Long period of turmoil, followed by democracy
3.Long period of turmoil, followed by... more turmoil
4.Transition back to dictatorship, but perhaps under
different dictators
5.Religious theocracy (“Muslim Brotherhood” etc –
the scenario Fox News seems to fear the most.)
THE END
Sources
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Map: http://culturekitchen.com/files/20102011MiddleEastUprisings.png
Statistics:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/index.html
Historical Precedent:
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/global/2011/02/choo
se-your-middle-east-historical-comparison-19891968-or-1848/21021/
Wheat Price Chart:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CW/W
Sources (cont'd)

Quotations:

http://dontapscott.com/2011/01/07/top-trends-anddevelopments-for-2011/

http://blogs.forbes.com/kaifalkenberg/2011/02/16/
mubarak-is-out-but-the-generational-clash-inegypt-continues/

http://www.5tjt.com/international-news/9622former-israeli-ambassador-to-egypt-accuses-aljazeera-of-fomenting-chaos

http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/is
lamsadvance/2008/05/egypts_facebook_revolution.
html