Transcript Arab Uprising - University of Michigan

Arab Uprising
Richards and Waterbury Chapter 16
Lust et al. (may have been mis-filed under Political Islam)
Plus a glance bank at Dahi
MENA map
MENA map
Civil
War
Overthrown
Killed
Invaded,
to keep
status quo
Resigned
Removed
MENA map
Contented
Democracy
War
Civil
fatigue
War
Overthrown
“Contented
Monarchy”
War
fatigue
Killed
Resigned
Political
suppression
Invaded,
to keep
status quo
People
Bought
Off
Removed
Rough estimates of deaths related to Arab Uprisings
Late 2011
U.S. News
Bahrain
Egypt
Libya
The view in late 2013,
from Wikipedia:
Bahrain 120
Egypt 1,700
Libya 30,000
< 100 Syria
900 Tunisia
30,000 Yemen
5,000
300
250
Syria 120,000
Tunisia
338
Yemen 2,000
<10 in Algeria, Oman, Jordan, Djibouti,
Somalia, Kuwait, Morocco, Lebanon,
Palestine
Lust et al. “After the Arab Spring: Islamism,
Secularism, and Democracy (Dec. 2012)
A Political Deal in a Deeply
Divided Tunisia as Islamists
Agree to Yield Power
Rachid Ghannouchi, the leader of the Islamist party
Ennahda.
Compromise has been in short supply since Tunisia sparked the Arab Spring nearly
three years ago. But this small North African nation has once again broken new
ground with a political deal between longtime enemies among the Islamists and the
secular old guard.
The deal, announced over the weekend, aims to put in place an independent
caretaker government until new elections next year, marking the first time Islamists
have agreed in the face of rising public anger to step back from power gained at the
ballot box.
New York Times, Dec. 16, 2013
This Ghannouchi is different from the former Prime Minister, Mohamed
Ghannouchi
Parties Agree on Leader Ahead of Vote in Tunisia
CASABLANCA, Morocco — Tunisia’s political parties agreed on the selection of a new
prime minister late Saturday, breaking months of political deadlock between the
Islamist-led government and secular opposition parties.
The current minister of industry, Mehdi Jomaa, will take over as prime minister and
lead a caretaker government until elections next year. No date for the elections has
been set.
Mr. Jomaa, 50, is an independent technocrat who joined the current government in
March after a career in the private sector. A mechanical engineer, he was a general
manager at Hutchinson Aerospace, a subsidiary of the French company Total,
according to Tunisian news reports.
NY Times December 15, 2013
Article’s main point is that the central government does not have power and authority
to impose order and safety. Thus power is wielded by tribes and other local power brokers.
Libya’s Prime Minister Ousted in Chaos Over Tanker
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK and CLIFFORD KRAUSSMARCH 11, 2014 [New York Times]
… The Parliament swore in the interim defense minister, Abdullah al-Thinni, for a
two-week stint as acting prime minister, but there was no consensus about who
might succeed him. The Parliament is disorganized, divided among lawmakers
associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, those elected under the banner of a
Western-friendly anti-Islamist coalition, and shifting coalitions of independents,
which include ultraconservative Salafi Islamists and eclectic local notables.
Libyan prime minister ousted by parliament
March 11, 2014 6:52PM ET [Al-Jazeera]
Western-backed leader voted out after independent militia looks to export oil using
North Korea-flagged tanker
Libya's parliament on Tuesday voted out Prime Minister Ali Zeidan – Libya’s first
democratically-elected leader – and replaced him with the defense minister, who
will act as interim prime minister until parliamentary elections slated for July.
…
Libya's government has been paralyzed for months by the power struggle between
Islamists in parliament trying to remove Zeidan and anti-Islamist political factions.
Zeidan's removal came as another fault line in the country was rumbling — between
the central government and the restive eastern half of the country, where many are
Egypt: Election photos
Newly Drafted Egyptian Constitution
… is significantly more secular than the one of 2012. It guarantees
absolute freedom of faith and belief. It removes a provision that would
have allowed the al-Azhar Seminary to pronounce on the parts of
Egyptian law directly drawn from the Muslim legal code or shariah. It
forbids the formation of political parties based on religion (i.e. it bans
the Freedom and Justice Party of the Muslim Brotherhood from
contesting elections, since religion is in its platform).
It should be noted that Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union in
Germany would be illegal according to this constitution. And, I suspect,
many Evangelical politicians in the Republican Party in the US would be
expelled from Congress.
… A referendum on the constitution will be held in January. [passed
98%]
(Juan Cole’s blog Informed Comment December 1, 2013)
Religious Endowments Ministry to control all mosques [Egypt]
Tue, 11/03/2014 - 16:20
Al-Masry Al-Youm
Religious Endowments Minister Mohamed Mokhtar decreed on Tuesday that all mosques in
Egypt are to be supervised and administered by the ministry, however small they may be.
He assigned the ministry to implement the decision within a month.
The minister also banned all NGOs from collecting donations inside mosques, and asked
worshippers not to pay any money without taking a receipt from the mosque’s management.
He instructed imams not to let anyone deliver a speech from the pulpit or give religious
lessons without prior written permission from the ministry.
He also said that the Friday sermon would be the same in all mosques and would be limited
to large mosques only.
State committee seizes 22 Muslim Brotherhood affiliated NGOs
Over 1,000 Brotherhood organisations appropriated by the government since ouster
of president Mohamed Morsi in July, 2013
El-Sayed Gamal El-Deen, Wednesday 12 Mar 2014 [ahramonline]
A committee tasked with appraising and freezing the funds of the Muslim
Brotherhood has decided to transfer the management of 22 of the group's NGOs to
a government ministry.
The move on Wednesday brings the total of Brotherhood organisations appropriated
by the government to 1,075, all of which are managed by the committee and the
solidarity ministry, said justice ministry spokesman Judge Abdel-Abzim El-Ashry.
The seizures aren't intended to halt the groups' humanitarian services but rather to
place them under the ministry's direct supervision, added El-Ashry.
A September court ruling banned all activities of the Brotherhood, from which
ousted Islamist president Mohamed Morsi hails, and ordered the confiscation of the
group's assets through a designated committee.
Saudis Put Terrorist Label on Muslim Brotherhood
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICKMARCH 7, 2014 [New York Times]
CAIRO — Saudi Arabia on Friday declared the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist
organization, escalating a new campaign against the group across the region with a
sweeping ban that imposes lengthy prison sentences for even expressing sympathy
with it.
The Saudi decree equates the Brotherhood, which has long denounced violence,
with widely designated terrorist organizations, including Al Qaeda, Hezbollah, the
Islamic State of Iraq and Syria and the Syria-based Nusra Front.
3 Gulf Countries Pull Ambassadors From Qatar Over
Its Support of Islamists
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK MARCH 5, 2014 [NYTimes]
CAIRO — Tensions between Qatar and neighboring Persian Gulf monarchies broke
out Wednesday when Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain withdrew
their ambassadors from the country over its support of the Muslim Brotherhood and
allied Islamists around the region.
“Girl in the Blue Bra” Dec. 17, 2011
A veiled young woman is dragged and beaten by Egyptian military during a protest in Cairo's
Tahrir Square. Her face is covered. Her torso is bare, except for her bright-blue bra; she's a
millisecond away from being kicked by a solider.
economic trends can explain the
Turkish Leader Disowns Trials That Helped Him Tame Military
By TIM ARANGOFEB. 26, 2014 [New York Times]
… Now, though, Mr. Erdogan is acknowledging what many legal and forensics experts have
long said: that, in a word, the trials were a sham. He has reversed himself not because of
any pangs of guilt, analysts say, but for the simple reason that the same prosecutors who
targeted the military with fake evidence are now going after him.
What explains the origins and dynamics of the Arab uprisings?
“[A] political economy approach has much to offer in addressing this question. Neither
purely political concerns, such as the desire of populations for democracy, nor simple
economic trends can explain the decisions of protestors to call for the downfall of
autocratic leaders. Rather, the interaction of political factors and real and perceived
economic developments brought about the uprisings… [N]arrowing authoritarian
coalitions in the context of crony capitalism, the rollback of the state, and declining
welfare regimes alienated formal-sector workers and tenuous middle classes…
[P]erceptions of socioeconomic trends in the context of evolving political economies
were at the root of mass protests.” (pages 2-3 of the separate insert, pages 408-09 of
the new R&W Chapter 16) “Discontent on the economic front interacted with a
broader sociopolitical context to ignite the uprisings.” (five pages later)
“The explanation for the uprisings is better found in the political economy of regime
consolidation than in aggregate statistics, whether one glosses them favorably or
unfavorably. In addition, key policy decisions taken in the early 2000s hastened the
demise of the Tunisian and Egyptian regimes…” Dahi (2011 p. 1) He then describes the
mistakes as accelerating liberalization after the mid-1990s, and adopting Bush’s
framework of the “war on terror.” Thus, “A Rise and Fall of the [authoritarian populist]
Social Contract”
Unemployment in North Africa
Source: Ansani and Danielle (2013) “About a Revolution: The Economic
Motivation of the Arab Spring,” Int’l Journal of Development and Conflict 2:3
R&W Figure 16.3 Out of Pocket Spending on Health as % of
Total Spending on Health
Looked at as an indicator of effectiveness of government health programs
not good in Egypt. mt thinks this is a weak test.
Fig. 16.5 Energy Subsidies/GDP
Very high, and rising in MENA
Food Price Index and Riots
Source: Ansani and Danielle (2013) “About a Revolution: The Economic Motivation of the
Arab Spring,” Int’l Journal of Development and Conflict 2:3
R&W Fig. 16.4 Repression and Freedom Indices:
Socioeconomic Foundations of Uprisings
Gradual deterioration.
Voice and Accountability Index
Morocco
Algeria
Egypt
Tunisia
Libya
Widespread, fairly continual decline at slow rates
Source: Ansani and Danielle (2013) “About a Revolution: The Economic Motivation of the
Arab Spring,” Int’l Journal of Development and Conflict 2:3
R&W on Corruption (pp. 422ff.)
“Cronyism is now seen as both the key characteristic of the economic
opening that started in the 1990s and accelerated in the 2000s, and the
source of many ills…
[A] Pew survey reveals that in 2010 corruption was the top concern of
Egyptians, … ahead of lack of democracy and poor economic conditions.
(After citing Transparency International Index, states: ) Perceived
corruption increased markedly in the following three years [after 2005].”
They proceed to review cases in Tunisia and Egypt.
Then, “Without an understanding of the military’s role in the domestic
political economy, it is impossible to understand political developments
during and after the uprisings.”
Other Variables/Explanations
R&W’s ‘narrowing authoritarian coalition in crony capitalism, ‘ and
‘declining welfare regimes’ are not easy to measure.
Dahi’s ‘Rise and Fall of the [authoritarian] Social Contract’ same problem
R&W’s suggestion that there was a factor of changing perceptions makes
empirical analysis quite difficult.
Quality of Democracy
(Polity)
and Education
Hypothesized positive slope, but high variance
Source: Ansani and Danielle (2013) “About a Revolution: The
Economic Motivation of the Arab Spring,” Int’l Journal of
Development and Conflict 2:3
Source: Ansani and Danielle (2013) “About a Revolution: The Economic Motivation of the Arab Spring,” Int’l Journal of
Development and Conflict 2:3
Internet and Social Networking
Source: Ansani and Danielle (2013) “About a Revolution: The Economic Motivation of
the Arab Spring,” Int’l Journal of Development and Conflict 2:3
Ansani and Danielle’s Conclusions
Source: Ansani and Danielle (2013) “About a Revolution: The Economic Motivation of
the Arab Spring,” Int’l Journal of Development and Conflict 2:3
The Muslim Brothers and the Arab Uprising
1. The MB did not participate in uprisings in Egypt nor Tunisia.
Yet it was active clandestinely in Syria, Libya, Yemen.
At the time, impression was impetus of youth, secular movements.
Unions were influential in Tunisia, less so in Egypt.
Stance of the Military was inconsistent across countries.
2. When elections were held in Tunisia and Egypt, the voters split
between MB and others – secular, or old regime loyalists.
3. MB governance was uneven in Tunisia, chaotically amateur in Egypt.
4. MB resigned In Tunisia, was thrown out in Egypt. Egyptian population
appears to be against them now.
5. Egypt’s MB was supported by Turkey and Qatar, opposed by Saudi A.
6. In several places, ‘radical’ groups have outflanked the MB.
7. mt’s conclusion: The Brothers have lost ground in Egypt, elsewhere.
Egypt Daily News, March 16, 2014
mt’s Future Scenarios:
At a minimum, only Tunisia has a good chance to install/maintain
democracy in the short run.
The monarchies will not have major changes. But when the Saudi
regime falls, it will make a large crash.
Can Libya and Yemen possibly evolve towards democracy?
There will continue to be tests of Political Islam, which hasn’t
gone away. Egypt is arguably the most important case for the US.