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Helping the world communicate
Telecom Sector on the Edge:
Driving the Future of IPTV
The Future of Voice
www.itu.int/spu/voice
15-16 January 2007
ITU Headquarters
Geneva, Switzerland
Jaroslaw K. Ponder
Policy Analyst
ITU Strategy and Policy Unit
International
Telecommunication
Union
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its Membership.
Helping the world communicate
Starting points
Migration to
the IP-environment
Convergence
of three
worlds
Evolving
regulatory
Internet
environment
15-16 January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva
Socio-economic
development
Investment
Innovation
Telecom
Broadc.
Catch-up
Ongoing
regulatory r.
Competitivness
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Monopoly
Competition
Narrowband
Broadband
Traditional
networks
NGNs
Telecoms
Telecoms/IT
Convergence
Wireline
Wireless
Convergence
Voice
Data / Video
Triple Play
National
Global
Pasive
Interactivity
General
Personalised
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Ubiquitous,
personalized and
interactive service
Video
Services
Telco Sector
Telecom and Broadcasting
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Helping the world communicate
Three Times VoIP
Video over IP
Voice over IP
•IPTV (QoS)
•VoD
•Interactive MS
•Web TV
•Mobile TV
•VoIP / PSTN
•IP Telephony
•VoB
•VPN
Mobile and Wireless
Fixed Infrastructure
•2G, 3G, 4G
•WiFi
•WiMAX (d,e)
•Satelite
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Velocity on IP
•xDSL
•FTTx
•Cable TV
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Helping the world communicate
Broadband Access, 2005
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Source: ITU (2006), World Information Society Report 2006, www.itu.int/wisr
Helping the world communicate
Telecom Sector in Transition
Broadband/Mobility
Now
Service A
Service B
Service C
Net. A
Net. B
Net. C
NGN
VoIP
Fixed: PSTN
Mobile: 2G
QoS
USO
Reg. Int.
Simulation
Emulation
Multimedia
Generalized mobility
Convergence
Integrity
Multi-layer orientation
Open character
Next Generation Services
QoS, Mobility, Interactivity,
Personalization, N-play
IP-environment
Future
Services A, B, C
IP Platform
(QoS)
Access Networks
Interconnection / Emerging markets / Universal services / Competition
Numbering / Quality of Services / Emergency Access / Consumer Protection
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Helping the world communicate
Converging Markets
Broadca
sting/
Satelite
Fixed
Telec.
CableTV
Mobile
Telec.
Wire
less
Infr.
less
s. prov.
Voice
Internet
Television/
Radio
Services on
Demand
(VoD…)
Note:
historically, the main service provided over the access platform
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Helping the world communicate
NGN Considerations…
NGN will lead to re-monopolization in the
telecommunication sector?
Less Bottlenecks / New bottlenecks
Dynamic efficiencies
Competition?
NGN as an effect of competition
NGN enhances level of competition
New interconnection regime?
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Helping the world communicate
NGN Considerations…
NGN will enable structural separation?
Networks / Services / Applications
Voice loses meaning?
Tech: IP protocol
Business: Voice plus Content
Present regulatory framework remains
relevant?
Evolution is unavoidable
Convergence (T+B+C)
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Helping the world communicate
New challenge for telecom sector
Driving the Future of IPTV
Chairman Report from
Executive Round Table
Market, Regulatory Trends and
Policy Options in Europe
Market, Regulatory Trends and
Policy Options in Asia / Pacific
IPTV Global Technical Workshop
12-13 October 2006 / www.iptv-ws.com
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Helping the world communicate
IPTV: Implications
Infrastructure requirements
Margin
Revenues
6-16 MBit/s for HDTV / Narrow Band TV
Bandwidth / Generalized mobility
ADSL2+/VDSL/FTTx/3G/4G/WiFi/WiMAX
Standardization process (Arch., STB)
Compression Methods
Business Model
Users
Value Creation Chain / True margin
redistribution
Triple-play
Distribution platforms /Interaction
Broadcasting /One way communication
Regulatory reform
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Helping the world communicate
IPTV: Market Trends
Beijing RIC Information Consulting
(2005): Global
2006: the global revenue of IPTV service
$8 billion with over 8 million subscribers.
Users: 2004: 2.19 million 2008: 20.44
million
21st Century Communications World
Forum :
IPTV Users in Europe
2006: 2-3 Million U.
Gartner (2006): Europe
2006: 3.3 million users
2010: more than 16 Million Users
Source: Gartner (2006)
Additional revenues generated
will
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15-16 January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva
grow from 336 Million to 3 Billion
Helping the world communicate
Case Study on Hong Kong: PCCW
Strong Demand for
Residential
Installed
Pay channel customers
608
Commercial
26
549
Installed pay
channel services
22
(’000)
441
444
17
Reached
654,000
Pay Channel Customers & ARPU
26
391
361
22
100%
10
at end of August
269
Pay channel
customers
Mini Packs
as % of total
launched
installed
105
271
70
17
418
192
147
57
(HK$/ month)
110
61%
114 118
120
71% 73%90
60
39%
369
10
53%
Steadily rising
ARPU as new
content introduced
20%
30
254
182
106
0%
29
H2
2003
H2
H1
H2
2004
H1
H2
2005
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H1
2003
0
H1
H2
2004
H1
H2
2005
H1
2006
2006
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Source: ITU-T IPTV Global Workshop, KT Case Study, Mr Berriman
Helping the world communicate
Case Study on Hong Kong: PCCW
Growing penetration rate of
among
consumer NETVIGATOR
Broadband Lines
(’000)
Wholesale
Business
Consumer
703
953
753
796
53%
59%
48%
857
94
28%
88
80
629
74
63
68%
998
H2’03
H1’04
H2’04
H1’05
68
58
798
840
Maintained low churn rate of consumer
NETVIGATOR since
launch
715
660
558
Dropped by half
517
460
H1
H2
2003
H1
H2
2004
H1
H2
2005
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H1
2006
Before launch
Jun-05
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Source: ITU-T IPTV Global Workshop, KT Case Study, Mr Berriman
Helping the world communicate
IPTV: Drivers and Obstacles
Drivers
Telecom competition
Inter-modal comp.
Pricing and sell
strategies
Broadband
deployment
Content providers
New ubiquitous
distribution platform
Convergence
Bundling strategies
User
Switching behavior
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Obstacles
Regulatory
environment
Standardization
process
Margin redistribution
New form of service
Interactivity
User
Cost of the STB /
Hardware providers /
Operators
Willingness to migrate
Willingness to pay for:
TV Services / Video
on Demand / Next
generation
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Consumer protection
Helping the world communicate
IPTV: Regulatory considerations
IPTV
Policy/Regulatory Goals
Socio-economic goals
Application and service
New markets
Investment
Fosters competition
Innovation
New architecture and
bottlenecks
Regulatory Focus
New cost models
Static and dynamic
Market analysis
efficiences
Cross-subsidies
Monopolistic bottlenecks
Boundaries between
Market failures
infrastructure and the
Ex-post r. v. ex-ante r.
content
Cross-ownerships
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Helping the world communicate
IPTV regulatory requirements
Infrastructure
From legacy infrastructure to investment
Inter-modal competition
Local loop unbundling
Interconnection
Universal service
Net neutrality
Symmetric regulation
Quality of services
Consumer protection
Definition of IPTV in legal systems
IP Hybrid-service / Information service /
Broadcast service / Linear versus non-linear
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services
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Meaningful concepts
Neutrality
Technological neutrality
Net-neutrality
Universality
Universal service
New platforms…
Interoperability
Standardization
Asymmetric regulation
Ex-ante versus Ex-post approaches
Unbundling and access pricing
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Helping the world communicate
Conclusions
All-IP environment accelerates
convergence process of telecom and
broadcasting industry
Required strict distinction of transport and content
regulation
Imposing old regulatory schemes to the new
technologies may weaken growth dynamics
Regulatory forbearance will impact growth dynamics
of the IPTV market
Institutional issues
New dimension of regulatory reform
Competition issues
All-IP environment fosters competition
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Helping the world communicate
Thank you for your attention!
International
Telecommunication
Union
Jaroslaw K. Ponder
Policy Analyst
<[email protected]>
ITU Strategy and Policy Unit
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Helping the world communicate
Useful Links
Full version of presentation:
www.itu.int/spu/presentations
ITU work on NGN and IPTV:
www.itu.int/spu/ngn
www.iptv-ws.com
Strategy and Policy Unit:
www.itu.int/spu
Shaping Tomorrow’s Networks
www.itu.int/stn
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Helping the world communicate
NGN and the ITU
Regulatory considerations
New Initiatives Programme
What rules for IP-enabled NGNs?
The Regulatory Environment for Future Mobile Multimedia Services
The Future of Voice
ITU Study Groups
Question 6-2/1: Regulatory impact of NGNs on interconnection
Question 12-2/1: Tariff policies, tariff models and methods of
determining the costs of services on national telecommunication
networks including NGNs
Question 19-1/2: Strategy for migration from existing networks to
NGNs for developing countries
WTDC 2007 in Doha
Trends in Telecommunication Reform 2007
Global Symposium for Regulators 2007
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Helping the world communicate
NGN and the ITU: IPTV
IPTV Focus Group
Created in 2006 to deal with the
standardization issues related to IPTV
and link between IPTV and NGN
Meetings and first outcomes
July 2006, Geneva, Switzerland
October 2006, Busan, Korea
ITU Global IPTV Technical Workshop
Regulation / Market / Technologies
October 2006, Seoul, Korea
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Helping the world communicate
ITU New Initiatives Programme
Focus
ICT innovations
New market developments
Emerging regulatory challenges
Three main outcomes :
Research programmes
International expert workshops
Publications
www.itu.int/ni
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Helping the world communicate
The Future of Voice
Research Programme
Background Materials Page
Three Background Papers
Three Regional Studies
Asia
Africa
South Eastern Europe
Latin America
Workshop: January 2007
www.itu.int/spu/voice
15-16 January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva
New Initiatives
Programme
www.itu.int/ni
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