Transcript Climate 101 University of Washington Program on Climate Change

Climate 101
University of Washington
Program on Climate Change
What have you heard?
Global warming causing new evolutionary patterns
EXAGGERATED SCIENCE
How Global Warming Research is Creating a Climate of Fear
Global warming could burn insurers
Activists call on industry to act
In a Shift, White House Cites Global Warming as a Problem
Is Global Warming Fueling Katrina?
Research Links Global Warming to Wildfires
Rise in wild fires a result
of climate change
Jellyfish creature the answer to global warming?
www.Scienceblog.com
Global warming increasing rockfalls in
Switzerland: geologist
“Climate is what you expect
Weather is what you get”
• Weather: Different phenomenon that occur in the atmosphere
of the planet over a short period of time, usually no more than a
few days.
Examples: Current Temperature, Rainfall, Humidity, Solar radiation
• Climate: The statistics (eg. average) of weather over a long
period of time.
Examples: Average Temperature, Rainfall, Humidity, Solar radiation
Our Questions Today
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What are Greenhouse Gases?
How do they cause warming?
How are humans affecting temperatures?
How do we know?
How might the Earth’s climate change?
How might people mitigate and/or adapt to
these changes?
Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse
Gases
GHG
GHG
• Every object emits
radiation according to
its temperature
• The sun is hot (7000 C)
and emits radiation in
the visible spectrum
• The Earth is cooler (20
C) and emits radiation
mostly in the infrared
• Greenhouse gases are
transparent to visible
radiation
• Greenhouse Gases
absorb IR radiation
The Greenhouse Effect
• Key concept: The energy entering the Earth
must equal the energy coming out
NO GHGs
WITH GHGs
Reflected
solar
radiation
Balance between:
Incoming solar = Outgoing IR
Less IR makes it to space
The Earth must emit more IR- warm
Most Important Greenhouse Gases
GHGs
Water: H2O
Carbon Dioxide: CO2
Methane: CH4
Source Examples
Oceans, Rivers, Plants, Soil
Combustion, Respiration,
Oceans,Volcanoes
Mining operations, Combustion,
Animals, Wetlands, Oceans
Other GHGs : Nitrous oxide (N2O), Ozone (near surface), Halocarbons
http://www.for.gov.bc.ca
Source: U.S. EPA 2005
Human sources of Greenhouse Gases
Halocarbons
2%
Other
CH4
8%
N2O
5%
• Fossil Fuel burning
represents 81% of
human sources of GHGs
CO2
4%
CO2 from
fossil fuels
81%
Source: U.S. EPA 2005
• Fossil Fuels include coal,
oil, and natural gas.
U.S.
186.1
Total CO2 emissions
European
Union
since 1950 in billions of tons
127.8
Russia
68.4
Ukraine
21.7
China
Poland
Canada
14.4
Kazakhstan
14.9
10.1
57.6
Japan
31.2
India
15.5
Mexico
7.8
Kuwait
Trinidad and
Tobago
Australia
South Africa
8.5
United
Arab
Emirate
s
7.6
Carbon Dioxide and Climate Change
CO2 (ppm)
CO2 1958 to present
Year
• CO2 concentrations have increased since 1958
• Estimated increase of about 30% since 1850
(280 ppm to 370 ppm)
Δ Temperature ( F )
Δ Temperature ( C )
Instrumental Temperature Record
Source: NOAA
More Evidence: Ice Cores
• Ice layers preserve information about each year
Sources: NOAA, GISP2 websites
2050
2100??
Ice Core Evidence
CO2 and temperature, 420,000 BP to present
Today
4
2
340
0
300
-2
-4
260
-6
220
-8
180
Temperature differential, ºC
CO2 concentration, ppmv
380
-10
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Years BP
Temperature differential
CO2 concentration
Source: various, (1) Vostok assembled by Davies 2000, (2) GISP2
State of the Science
•Intergovernmental Program on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assesment Report
(2007)
“Global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxides
[greenhouse gases] have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750
and now far exceed pre-industrial records... spanning many thousands of years.”
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from observations of:
oIncreases in global average air and ocean temperatures
oWidespread melting of snow and ice
oRising global mean sea level”
“Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperature ... is very likely due to
the observed increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations”
www.IPCC.ch
Future Climate Changes
What is a Climate Model ?
Geography
+
Physics
+
Forcing
On a computer gridded domain
Using Computer Models to Understand Climate
All Climate Influences
Natural Climate Influence
Human Climate Influence
Future climate change
Unregulated global economic
development (status quo)
global environmental
regulation
Source: IPCC 2001
Future local climate change
Average Northwest warming, 2000-2100
Source: Mote, Salathé and Peacock 2005
Impacts of Global Warming
Worldwide Retreat of Mountain Glaciers
1981
1928
2000
South Cascades Glacier, OR
Source: USGS ca. 2005
Sea Level Rise
7-8 meters in Florida
1-5 meters in Bangladesh
“How far can it go? The last time the world was three degrees warmer than today –
which is what we expect later this century – sea levels were 25m higher. So that is what
we can look forward to if we don't act soon…I think sea-level rise is going to be the big
issue soon, more even than warming itself…
Dr. James Hansen, Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
– The Independent 2/ 17/2006
Loss of Sea Ice
Source: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) (2004)
Carbon dioxide acidifies seawater
CO2
Atmosphere
CO2
Ocean
“shelled-critters”
• CO2 and carbonate (which
plankton use to make shells)
combine in the ocean.
• The ocean is already more
acidic than it was 50 years ago.
Source: Alfred-Wegener-Institut
SEM photograph of E. hux
Hurricanes and Climate Change
•Hurricanes are heat engines
that get their energy from
warm ocean waters
•Recent studies have
shown an increase of
average hurricane
intensity associated with
warming seas
Sea surface
temp.
Hurricane
“Power”
Sources:EOS news Oct 2005, http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel
The Northwest is losing its mountain snow
Observed
Modeled
Decrease
Increase
Change in April 1st snow water equivalent
1940-1997
Difference in
Snowpack
1990s to 2050
(April 5)
Source: Mote 2005, BAMS
Climate and Ecosystems: the Mountain Pine Beetle
A massive outbreak of the
mountain pine beetle in BC
has killed 100 billion board feet
(approx. 9 years of harvest)
Low temperatures (< -10°F)
limit beetle activity
A recent lack of extreme
cold temperatures has
allowed the beetle to thrive
in epidemic numbers
Sources: http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig, http://www.for.gov.bc.cal
Our Future Depends on Our Choices
www.ipcc.ch
Our Future Depends on Our Choices
The technology needed to decrease emissions
while still powering our world exists today
The problem becomes more tractable
if we attack it in wedges.
Possible wedges:
•Wind power
•(50 times current capacity)
•Carbon capture and storage
•(3,500 Sleipners)
•Efficient Vehicles
•(Change 2billion cars from 30mpg to 60mpg)
Other wedges: Nuclear power, Reduced vehicle usage, More effiecient buildings, Biomass fuels,
wind hydrogen cars, More efficient power plants, Reduced deforestation, Conservation tillage, More
efficient power plants …
Source: Pacala and Socalo 2004
Towards Mitigation and Adaptation
Reducing Greenhouse Gases and Planning for Warming:
Government actions:
• International agreements
to
reduce emissions (ie. Kyoto)
• National and regional
agreements and laws
(ie. US Mayors Climate
Protection Agreement)
• Support and incentives for
alternative energy
Personal actions:
• Reduce energy use:
• at home
• drive less, drive efficiently
• As a consumer
• support businesses that
are energy conscious
• Get political
• vote
Choices are difficult because they require
value judgments and long-term planning
• US Mayors Climate Protection Agreement
Summary
• Human activities are increasing heat trapping
greenhouse gases (like CO2) all over the world.
• As a result, the average temperature of the world is
increasing 0.74C since 1900
• Future warming of 1.8-4C by 2100
• Climate change can/does/will have major effects on
humans lives
• Future climate changes and impacts depend on
our choices
The End.
University of
Washington
Program on Climate
Change
State of the Science
•Intergovernmental Program on Climate Change (IPCC)
“Human activities … are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents…
that absorb or scatter energy …[M]ost of the observed warming over the last 50
years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations”
•National Academy of Sciences “Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth’s
atmosphere as result of human activities, causing surface air temperature and
subsurface ocean temperatures to rise”
•Similar Statements by:
•American Meteorological Society
•American Geophysical Union
•Quantifying Consensus
•Searched scientific journals from 1993-2003 and randomly collected 928
publications
•None of the papers directly addressing global climate change disagreed with the
basic consensus of IPCC quoted above
Source:Oreskas, Science 2004
Impacts of Global Warming
Physical
•
Sea level rise
•
Ecosystem disruption
•
Changes in extreme events
• Rainfall
•
Societal
• Water resources (droughts,
snowpack,…)
• Industries (ski industry, …)
• Air quality
• Hurricanes (intensity)
• Health (spread of disease
carriers, heat waves,…)
• Droughts
• Forestry
•
Loss of winter snowpack
• Conflicts over resources
•
Loss of Sea ice
• Agriculture
•
Permafrost
• Refugees
•
Changing climate zones
• New usable land
•
Coral Death (ocean acidification)
• New Arctic shipping routes
Our Future Depends on Our Choices
Also Important:
Preparing to deal with future climate changes
•Preparing for water shortages
•Preparing for sea level change
•Preparing for ecosystem impacts
•Prepare for surprises
Animation
Predicting Future Climate Change
Schematic of a GCM
winter
flooding
low summer
streamflow;
higher temp.
Effects on salmonid life-cycle
possible
effects
still
unknown
changing estuary
conditions (prey,
predators,
competitors)
Source: Mote ca. 2005
Temperature change, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990
Worldwide Retreat of Mountain Glaciers
1938
1981
1928
2000
South Cascades Glacier, OR
Grinell Glacier, Glacier National Park, MT
Source: USGS ca. 2005
Extras:
Extras: Measured Arctic Summer Sea Ice Extent
Sea level rise
IPCC (www.ipcc.ch)
What have you heard?
Climate
Climate Change
Vegetation carbon in 2070-2100
Modeled
Change in
Vegetation
Current
vegetation as
seen from
satellite
Source: Nielson ca. 2005
NASA Landsat Geocover 2000
As the West warms,
winter flows rise
and summer flows
drop
Figure by Iris Stewart,
Scripps Inst. of Oceanog.
(UC San Diego)
Greenhouse gases and Earth’s energy balance
* H2O, O3, CO2, CH4, N2O, halocarbons
Source: Murray ca. 2005
United States CO2 emissions for 1999
US EPA
Potential impacts of Climate change
Source: United Nations Environment Program, http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/20.htm
Carbon Cycle
Atmosphere: 750
100-120
Sea-Surface gas exchange: 100-115
Fossil
fuel: 5.3
90-110
Net ocean
uptake: 1.6-2.4
Deep
Deepocean
ocean:
reservoir
38100
Fossil fuels: 5000
Geological reservoir
Number of Hurricanes
Source: Webster et al., Science Vol 309, 16 Sept 2005, pp 1844-1846
Accepted on February 18, 2005
Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records
Johannes Hans Oerlemans
Future global climate change
• Model predictions of global average temperature
increases by 2100 range from +2 to +4.5°C (4-8 ° F)
Source: IPCC 2001
Sea Level Trends
Source: US EPA, http://yosemite.epa.gov/OAR/globalwarming.nsf/content/ClimateTrendsSeaLevel.html
Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2006/apr/global.html
Who we are…
Observations of CO2
• CO2 concentrations have increased since 1958
• Estimated increase of about 30% since 1850
(280 ppm to 370 ppm)
Source: Murray ca. 2005
Sea Ice vs Glaciers
Sea Ice
Glacier
(Ice Sheet)
State of the Science
•Intergovernmental Program on Climate Change (IPCC)
“Human activities … are modifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents…
that absorb or scatter energy …[M]ost of the observed warming over the last 50
years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations”
•National Academy of Sciences “Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth’s
atmosphere as result of human activities, causing surface air temperature and
subsurface ocean temperatures to rise”
•Similar Statements by:
•American Meteorological Society
•American Geophysical Union
•Quantifying Consensus
•Searched scientific journals from 1993-2003 and randomly collected 928
publications
•None of the papers directly addressing global climate change disagreed with the
basic consensus of IPCC quoted above
Source:Oreskas, Science 2004