Transcript Military Decision-Making Process and Effect-Based Operations Concepts:

Military Decision-Making Process and Effect-Based Operations
Concepts:
A Comparative Study, Lessons Learned and Implications
Dr. A. Guitouni
Dr. K. Wheaton
Decision Support System Section, Defence R&D Canada - Valcartier
2459 Pie-XI North, Val-Belair, QC, G3J 1X5, Canada
Phone: +1 (418) 844 4000 ext. 4392, Fax: +1 (418) 844 4538, Email:
[email protected]
Defence R&D Canada – Centre for Operational Research and Analysis
Department of National Defence, National Defence Headquarters
Major-General George R. Pearkes Building, 101 Colonel By Drive
Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0K2, Canada
Phone: +1 (613) 996-6511, Fax: +1 (613) 992-3342, Email:
[email protected]
Defence Research and
Development Canada
Recherche et développement
pour la défense Canada
Canada
Agenda
• Introduction
• Military Decision-Making Process (MDMP)
• Effect Based Approach (EBA)
• Comparative Study
• Lessons Learned and Implications
• Concluding remarks
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Motivation
• New concepts trigger one of the three reactions:
– Enthusiasm and support
– Scepticism and opposition
– Neutral and no interest
• Innovation, Evolution and Revolution
– Do EBO is an innovation, evolution or a revolution?
• What is wrong? and what is the cause? What is the best,
affordable, feasible and practical solution?
– Need to bridge between theoretical development and
practice
• …
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C4ISR Target Integration Model*
* Capt(N) Knight
Produce
ISR Fusion
Capability
Virtual Knowledge
Base
Orient
Global and
Operational Data
COP
Decision
Analyze
TPED
Direct
Decide
Direct - Decide
Observe
TPPU
Support
Collate
Act
CFCS Information Grid – Collaborative Information Environment
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Security Layer
Access Control – Dissemination Layer
Intelligence Cycle
COMMANDER’S
MISSION
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Source: CF Joint and Land Doctrine
Intelligence Preparedness of the Battlespace
• IPB is the analytical process used by intelligence
organizations to produce intelligence assessments,
estimates, and other intelligence products in
support of the Commander’s decision-making
process.
• IPB Focus:
– Battlespace effects and enemy capability
– Predictive intelligence to discern enemy intent
and likely COA
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Source: CF Joint and Land Doctrine
Intelligence Preparedness of the Battlespace
• Define the battlespace environment
• Describe the battlespace’s effects
• Evaluate the adversary
• Determine adversary courses of action
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Source: CF Joint and Land Doctrine
Operations Planning Process
• A methodical thought process designed to Focus the Staff,
Serve the Commander and Provide the Necessary Products to
direct the joint force.
• Steps:
– Initiation
– Orientation
– COA Development
– Plan Development
– Plan Review
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Source: CF Joint and Land Doctrine
Concepts
• Operational Art: Art of translating strategic objectives into
operational design to link strategy to tactics.
• Operational Design: Massing joint effects to attack the
enemy’s centre of gravity while protecting one’s own.
• Centre of Gravity: determined, not chosen
• Decisive Points: determined, not chosen
• Strengths & Weaknesses: friend and foe
• Factors: Significant aspects of time, space & environment
Defence R&D Canada – Valcartier • R & D pour la défense Canada – Valcartier
Source: CF Joint and Land Doctrine
OPP Lexicon
• Centre of Gravity is a characteristic, capability or locality
from which a military force, nation or alliance derives:
freedom of action, strength or will
• Decisive Point is a point from which a hostile or friendly
Centre of Gravity can be threatened. This point may exist in
time, space, or in information environment. Decisive points
are often effects… Or… a condition that must be achieved to
expose the enemy’s Centre of Gravity
• Critical Vulnerability is a characteristic or key element of a
force that if destroyed, captured or neutralised will
significantly undermine the fighting capability of the force
and its centre of gravity. May be a strength or a weakness.
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Source: CF Joint and Land Doctrine
OPP Concepts
Centre of
Gravity
Critical
Capabilities
Critical
Requirements
Critical
Vulnerabilities
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Adapted from LCol Scheidl Brief
DECISIVE POINTS
DP
DP
DP
CG
OBJ
CG
ATTACK
DP
DEFEND
DP
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Source: CF Joint and Land Doctrine
Initiation
Trigger
(e.g., Tasks, Political Directives, ID)
Orientation
Initial
WOs
Staff
Orientation
Develop
Initial Own
COAs
Initial Staff
Checks
Outline
COAs
Decision
COA
Development
Air Avenue of
Approach
Overlay
Weather
Effects Overlay
Refine Own
COAs
Light
Tables
Threat
Evaluation
Refined
COAs
Supp. Plan
Initial
HVTL
ECOAs
Templates
ECoG
COAs
Analysis/WG
Draft
Synchronization
Matrix & DST
Determine
ECOAs
Event
Matrix
Draft
ISTAR
Plan
Event
Templates
Updated
HVTL
COAs
Comparison
Decision
Brief
Selected
COA
Supplementary
WOs
Plan
Development
Plan Development
and Review
CF Decision
Making
Process
Battlespace
Effects
TERA
Information
Brief
Refine Staff
Checks
AI Initial
PIRs
CCIR
CPG
Initial Supp.
Plan
Existing
Information
Collection Plan
Define
Battlespace
Mission
Analysis
Updated
Information
Collection Plan
Detailed
OPlan
Plan
Review/WG
Refined OPlan and
Supporting Plans
DST
AGM
ISTAR
Plan
Information
Collection
Plan
DefenceIssue
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of
Orders
Op Orders
Synchronization
Matrix
Legend
OPP
IBP
Other
Processes
Staff
Activities
Commander
Activities
Initiation
Trigger
(e.g., Tasks, Political Directives, ID)
Orient
Orientation
Define
Battlespace
Mission
Analysis
Staff
Orientation
Develop
Initial Own
COAs
Initial Staff
Checks
Initial Supp.
Plan
Outline
COAs
COA
Development
Refine Staff
Checks
Air Avenue of
Approach
Overlay
Weather
Effects Overlay
Refine Own
COAs
Refined
COAs
Supp. Plan
Analyze
Initial
HVTL
Light
Tables
Threat
Evaluation
ECOAs
Templates
Draft
Synchronization
Matrix & DST
Observe
ECoG
Determine
ECOAs
TPPU
Event
Matrix
Draft
ISTAR
Plan
Event
Templates
Updated
HVTL
COAs
Comparison
Decision
Brief
Selected
COA
Supplementary
WOs
Collate
Plan
Development
Plan Development
and Review
Direct
TPED
COAs
Analysis/WG
Decide
Decision
Battlespace
Effects
TERA
Information
Brief
CF Decision
Making
Process
Existing
Information
Collection Plan
AI Initial
PIRs
CCIR
CPG
Initial
WOs
Produce
Updated
Information
Collection Plan
Detailed
OPlan
Plan
Review/WG
Act
Refined OPlan and
Supporting Plans
DST
AGM
ISTAR
Plan
Information
Collection
Plan
DefenceIssue
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of
Orders
Op Orders
Synchronization
Matrix
Legend
OPP
IBP
Other
Processes
Staff
Activities
Commander
Activities
Effects Based Operations Lexicon*
•
An effect “is the physical, functional, or psychological outcome,
event, or consequence that results from specific military or nonmilitary actions.” It should be achievable, and measurable.
•
A state is a set of conditions of the system. A state could be stable or
instable and have the properties of being desirable or undesirable.
An End State is a set of desired conditions beyond which will
achieve strategic objectives.
•
Objective is the intended state of affairs to be achieved by the
aggregation of specified Effect(s).
•
Strategic aim is a single, unambiguous purpose attained by the
achievement of one or more objectives.
•
A Decisive Effect is an effect that will either achieve an end state or
complete a phase in a military operation.
•
Second and Third Order Effects are the tightly inter-linked flowon outcomes from actions, or 1st order effects, which magnify the
impact of the original action and are aimed at influencing the will of
an individual or organisation.
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*: United States Department of Defence, Joint Forces Command Glossary, and other
Effects Based Operations Lexicon*
•
An Enabling Effect is an effect that adds to the system of effects
designed to produce a decisive effect.
•
Effector is a capability, a person or an organisation that could carry
an action that might result in an effect.
•
Constant Engagement is the concept of standing, continuous
engagement with friendly, neutral and potential adversary agencies
to facilitate shared situational awareness and support integrated
planning to achieve national policy goals.
•
System - Any organized assembly of resources and procedures
united and regulated by interaction or interdependence to accomplish
a set of specific functions.
•
System of Systems - A grouping of organized assemblies of
resources, methods, and procedures regulated by interaction or
interdependence to accomplish a set of specific functions. For
example, a "system of systems" could include the economic entities
in a nation such as the banking system, production system, etc.
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*: United States Department of Defence, Joint Forces Command Glossary, and other
Effects Based Operations Lexicon*
•
Operational assessment is best defined as the art and science of
enhancing the operational commander’s judgment and decisions
about the military campaign’s effectiveness and attendant risk in
progressing toward the military end state.
•
A node is an entity in the Network system that performs one or more
basic net centric actions and is able to interact with other nodes in
the system. Node – a person, place, or thing that is a fundamental
component of a system. A node could be a collector, information
provider, decider, effector, communicator or supporter.
•
An action is an activity directed towards the achievement of an
effect or effects directed at a specific node [for the purpose of
achieving an effect]. Actions have the properties of being direct or
indirect.
•
Resources are the forces, material and other assets which can be
employed to conduct an action. Task – one or more actions [assigned
to an organization].
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*: United States Department of Defence, Joint Forces Command Glossary, and other
Effects Based Operations – CA*
‘Operations designed to influence the long - or short-term state of a
system through the achievement of desired physical or
psychological effects. Operational objectives are sought to achieve
directed policy aims using the integrated application of all
applicable instruments of hard/soft power. Desired effects, and the
actions required to achieve them, are concurrently and adaptively
planned, executed, assessed (and potentially altered) within a
complex and adaptive system’
CA working definition
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* Grossman-Vermaas, R.., EBO Concept Development and Experimentation Initiatives, 2005.
Effects Based Operations
• The application of military and non-military capabilities to
realise specific and desired strategic and operational outcomes
in peace, tension, conflict and post-conflict situations.
• The intent of EBO is to produce effects - not just to conduct
an action in isolation - and the planning, conduct and
assessment of operations must reflect this approach. EBO
focuses on military operations but also supports Whole of
Nation planning.
• Employing this approach, requires inter-dependencies with
other government agencies, allies and coalition partners,
neutral third parties and other nations.
• This is not a new approach; however, EBO seeks to more
effectively coordinate military effects with the various
elements of power in achieving objectives.
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EBO Concept Assumption: National Power
Integration (DIME)
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EBO Concept Assumption: National Power
Integration
•
A broader view of conflict is a central theme of EBO:
– It incorporates knowledge of not just an adversary, but OGDs,
own and allied forces, as well as neutral elements such as nongovernment organisations.
– It exploits this knowledge to generate the broadest range of
effects which support the eventual achievement of the national
goal.
•
EBO seeks to identify the 2nd, 3rd,… order effects of applying
national power.
•
For EBO to work, all of the constituent elements of national power
must employ an effects-based holistic thinking to synchronise
actions.
•
As one of the principle elements of national power, the military will
have a major role in achieving national security objectives.
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MNE 3 EBP Process Steps
Effect-based Planning
Strategic Aim
Military Strategic
Objectives
MNE 3 Experiment
1
2
6
5
3
Commander’s
Initial Guidance
4
Action Risk
Assessment
Effects
Matrix
Commander’s
Guidance
Effects
Assessment
Mission
Analysis
COA
Assessment
10
11
12
ETO
13
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Commander’s
Decision
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9
Wargaming
Effects
Synchronization
CEA
8
PEL
Focused
ONA
Baseline
ONA
7
Actions
Operational Net Assessment (ONA)
Academia
Nat’l and
Int’l Intelligence
Vulnerabilities
Political
Social and Cultural
Dependencies
Economic
Physical
Defence
Strengths
NODES
Policy Centres
OGDs, IGOs
Private Industry
Legal, Ethical
and Moral
Weaknesses
Scientific
and Technical
Relationships
Military
System Understanding
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EBP Process: MNE 4 Conops Ver 0.65
Red / Green
Teaming
Gain
SA/SU
Effects
Development
Action Devel.
Resource Match
End state
Analysis
Effects-Based
Assessment
Planning
Information
Political
Military
Synchronization
And Plan
Development
EBA Plan
PEL
Draft ETO
Infrastructure
Social
Economic
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Comparative Study: EBO vs MDMP
EBO
MDMP
Holistic thinking
Military thinking
Integration of national power actions
Service providers to the government
Effects
Targets and Critical Vulnerabilities
Decisive Effect
Centres of Gravity / Decisive Point
Second and Third Order Effects
First and Second order
Enabling Effect
Supporting Tasks / Implied Tasks
End State
End State
Dynamic Situation
Static Situation
Need for persistent situation awareness
Initial situation assessment (not reconsidered
dynamically)
EBP
OPP
Operational Network Assessment (has been changed to
Knowledge based assessment)
IPB
Decentralised Decision Making
Centralised Decision Making
Constant Engagement
Constant Engagement
Feed-back loops
Loose feed-back loops
System
System of Systems
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System
System of Systems
Comparative Study: EBO vs MDMP
• EBO is a very powerful paradigm or concepts that push the
leadership to embrace a more comprehensive and holistic
thinking.
• EBO require to think about actions and their secondary
effects. EBO lead decision makers to think not only about
winning the war, but also how to win the peace.
• MDMP as a very focused and oriented process, consider only
planning for military actions.
• The holistic thinking is appropriate for strategic change
management. But, what about operational and tactical levels?
How to apply the DIME concepts at the tactical level?
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Comparative Study: EBO vs MDMP
•
EBO strength might be seen in its recognition of the dynamic
situation analysis and the system of systems approach to it.
– Leaders and their supporting staff should be able to monitor
such system of systems dynamics, understand its fundamental
rules and derive where to create an decisive effect to change it to
a desired end state.
•
MDMP is based on static reading of the situation. Iterations and
refinement of plans lead to reviewing the situation from time to time.
•
How to perform continuous situation assessment if the information is
continuously changing? What is the balance between dynamic
analysis and static? What is the influence of information overload on
the quality of the analysis? Is it better to make some abstraction and
focus on the fundamental aspects rather than continuously monitor
the change?
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Comparative Study: EBO vs MDMP
• Assessing effects and actions is another good concept of
EBO.
• Understanding the cascading effects and their relationships is
very complex undertaking.
– It is sometimes impossible to list all possible effects.
• MDMP focus only on assessing military actions on targets,
which is more focused assessment process.
• Theoretically, decision-making is better served by a holistic
and coherent assessment process, practically however, it is
unfeasible.
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Comparative Study: EBO vs MDMP
• EBP is continuous planning process that never
stops until the desired end-state is achieved.
• MDMP stops as soon as the final plan is approved
and the orders are issued.
– Amendment and new tasking could be issued as
a reaction to execution, but tactical
Commanders are given a good room of
manoeuvre to adapt to situation.
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Comparative Study: EBO vs MDMP
• EBO require that all constituents of national power should be
integrated and adopt and EBA thinking in order to achieve
strategic aim and manage change. Theoretically, such
integration is a must.
• But, to which level should such integration goes.
– How to enable such integration while observing national
constitutions and lows? How to accommodate dynamic,
continuous and agile decision-making within
bureaucratic, political and sometimes polarized
environments?
• MDMP recognise coordination with other agencies and
national power constituents. MDMP assume that more
integration should happen at a higher level like the
government or some special bodies.
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Comparative Study: EBO vs MDMP
• EBO to work require a high level of collaboration. Such
collaboration is very broad according to EBO.
• MDMP recognise collaboration, but at a very limited scale.
– Advances in technology have triggered integration of
collaborative planning tools within headquarters. MDMP
is now more distributed and collaborative process.
• Flexibility is requirement for both EBO and MDMP.
• Effects and Actions Assessment might become very complex
and heavy process.
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Lessons Learned
• MN LOE I concluded that collaborative planning can be
conducted in a distributed environment.
• MNE 3 showed that the EBP concept has potential for
operational and joint task force headquarters but requires
further refinement.
• While participants found the process complex, they praised
the concept for forcing them to think in terms of effects,
which expanded their options.
• MNE3 found that the staff should be organized and trained to
support the requirements of the EBP process.
• An integrated suite of tools is required to support distributed
collaborative planning and the EBP process.
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Implications
• The main point is that the EBP and EBO concepts are still
being developed. Therefore, the opportunity exists to
harmonize the MDMP within the EBA.
• Future experimentation could investigate the effectiveness of
distributed planning with higher-level headquarters
conducting EBP while subordinate headquarters conduct
MDMP.
• The MDMP could be modified recognizing an EBP process.
• The MNE 3 lessons call for an integrated suite of tools.
– Developing such a tool suite to support both processes
and facilitate distributed collaborative planning amongst
all of the headquarters involved should be considered.
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Implications
• The MDMP should be closely coupled to the Commander’s
Intent and driven by his critical information requirements.
– Information and intelligence production should be cued to
the Commander’s desired effects and the MDMP should
be adapted to integrate dynamic information and
intelligence management and dynamic situation analysis,
to develop trust among all levels of decision-making, to
contribute to a shared knowledge base (ONA database),
and create a collaborative decision-making environment.
• These are important issues for harmonizing the MDMP with
the EBP process.
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Implications
• The other key challenge will be to adapt leadership skills for a
distributed coalition collaborative environment.
• As found in MNE 3, different skills are required from the
traditional command and control environment.
• Training, Teaching and Skill Sets.
• The MDMP should be reviewed and adapted based upon
EBA concepts.
• The EBA and the MDMP should benefit from a broad range
of tools as well as supporting concepts
– Network Centric Warfare, disciplines like the decision
sciences, and theories like complexity theory, graph
theories, and chaos theory as well as social theories
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Implications
Property
• MOEs and MOPs
(Metrics or Criteria)
Fundamental
Properties:
% of
Response
Accepted
24%
Efficient
22%
16%
– Feasible
Without
Redundancy
– Comprehensive
Measurable
14%
Complete
10%
Justice
6%
Exhaustive
4%
Consistent
2%
– Measurable
• MOEs and MOPs
(Metrics or Criteria)
Desired Properties
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Concluding remarks
•
MDMP and EBO are not competing concepts
•
It is clear that the EBA/EBO is still a paradigm in development. In
our opinion, the EBA and the MDMP should not be seen as
competing or contradictory concepts.
•
EBO is not a new operational concept, it is a way of thinking or
paradigm
– Teach military decision-makers to integrate a holistic thinking in
their way of dealing with complex problems
– Develop and maintain a collaborative culture with other national
and international powers
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Concluding remarks
• Power to the edge: Decentralisation versus centralisation
– Sharing situation awareness
– Shared intent
– Trust in both direction
– Agility and adaptability
– Accountability: Fault tolerance
– C2 Structure and Organisation
• Operational Design and the Assessment are the Achilles heel
of EBO
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Concluding remarks
•
MDMP has become a staff centric process rather than a Command
centric
•
MDMP supposes a static situation while EBO recognizes that
environment is dynamic
– Need to better integrate dynamic information and intelligence
management to the OPP like persistent surveillance and
dynamic situation analysis
•
Requirement to better integrate OPP and IPB: Intelligence and
Information production should be cued toward achieving the desired
effects
•
MDMP should be seen as problem solving process that could be
modernised by teaching a holistic analytical thinking: Critical
thinking
•
Emerging tools and sciences are required like chaos theory
•
…
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