Transcript A Modern Greece - Greek Economic Forum

“A Modern Greece”
Conference in Harvard University, organized by the Greek Economic Forum (GEF)
The role of Renewable Energy projects in the economic growth, social development and prosperity of
Greece. Impact assessment using socioeconomic analysis and strategic planning tools
Participant: Georgios Kalpias, Business Analyst EDF Energy, M.Sc., M.Eng.
Sectors influenced:
Level 1 – Renewable Energy
Level 2 – Indirect financial and growth impact in:

Entrepreneurship and new technologies

Investments in manufacturing

Environment and Sustainability
Words count – English version: 650/ Greek version: 650
Key words: Renewable Energy Systems (RES), wind/solar/geothermal/biomass/marine energy, SMEs,
start ups, interconnectors, unemployment, FDIs, EBRD
Acknowledgements: I would like to thank for the valuable support and help, Ms Elizabeth DebevoiseRenewable Energy Banker in EBRD and my Career Manager in EDF Energy, Mr Nick Bradford-Head of
Asset Management for Renewable Assets. Without their guidance and information, this proposal
would not be feasible.
February – March 2015, London UK
A tremendous electricity market transformation occurs globally; a Modern Greece should be part of it but also a
leader for RES. Governments, EU regulations and public/private investors have expressed their interest for RES
(Kyoto protocol, EU Directive – 20/20/20). To evaluate a new growth model, this proposal investigates RES in Greece
using two different methods. Firstly, a top down strategy (Appendix) reflects the macroeconomic situation of
Greece, then the RES opportunities are explored and finally the financing choices of establishing a realistic growth
model are investigated. An interview with Ms Debevoise from EBRD was conducted to prove how realistic the
financing proposals are. Secondly, a socioeconomic analysis (Appendix) designates the potential positive impact of
RES in different parts of society. Public opinion and the role of the government are crucial for the prosperity of RES.
The success of this new growth model is strongly aligned with the government’s(2010) commitment for: i) 40% of
RES production, ii) 30% energy efficiency in all areas e.g. households, industry, public buildings, iii) 100% smart
metering and iv) 100% interconnections of the main islands. Hence, the above mentioned methods and the projects
database will try to evaluate how realistic these targets are.
Although the conclusions from the top down strategy do not reveal an attractive macroeconomic environment for
investments, some weaknesses of the economy can become opportunities; low labor costs and developed
engineering knowledge of the young generation can attract new FDIs in Greece. The Energy sector analysis reveals a
high potential for RES; a new investor for ADMIE will upgrade the national grid and new RES could be connected to
it. Reforms and privatizations, the on progress - sale of ADMIE to a strategic investor and a potential spin off for the
30% of PPC can create a competitive environment. The proposed FiT prices (2010) from the government are
compared with the LCOE metrics for different technologies and the outcome reveals a high potential for new wind,
hydro and biomass projects. The financing opportunities analysis goes through all the risks that investors face during
the phases of a project (pre-construction, construction, O&M) and Venture Capital, Private Equities, Public Markets,
Asset Finance, M&As are assessed as potential sources. Statistical data from IFIs (World Bank, EBRD-REEP for
Western Balkan) along with the evidence from the interview with Ms Debevoise, declare that Green Bonds
($11billion issued in 2014 from IFC) and Public Markets are the financing methods with the lowest risk and highest
potential for Greece. EBRD evaluates positively its involvement for equity financing alongside the strategic investors
for ADMIE, for financing the substantial CAPEX needed of the privatized entities of PPC or subsidizing the planned
project for interconnectors for the main islands with the mainland, which will boost interests for RES. The role of
Greek commercial banks is also considered (Appendix).
The disclosure of projects in pipeline/under construction is used to understand how attainable the 40% RES
production is. The data provided illustrate that until 2020-2025 Greece can generate 13.90GW from RES. To achieve
that, Greece requires new investments in wind energy (potential total capacity of 7,5GW), biomass (200MW
outstanding), pumped storage (780MW outstanding) and geothermal (72MW outstanding), while marine energy can
be a new area for development with potential capacity of 5.1MW. Solar PV and hydro projects exceed government’s
generation projection (2,2GW, 350MW respectively)
The socioeconomic analysis indicates that 30,000 jobs can be created and RES can contribute to the development of
high technical education, entrepreneurship and innovation. We can minimize CO2 emissions, sell energy through
interconnectors to other European countries and the corresponding revenues can contribute to Greece’s sovereign
debt payout. RES can attract new foreign investors who can transfer knowhow, support financially local projects and
develop partnerships with local universities for new research labs. Start-ups can lead modernization in the energy
industry with novel ideas and apps for energy savings for customers and Greece can be a new Innovation and
Energy hub for Europe.
Georgios Kalpias – March 2015 – London,UK
Greek Economic Forum – Harvard University
|2
Τεράστιες αλλαγές στην αγορά ηλεκτρικής ενέργειας συμβαίνουν παγκοσμίως και μια σύγχρονη Ελλάδα πρέπει να
είναι μέρος αυτών και ηγέτης στις ΑΠΕ. Κυβερνήσεις, ευρωπαϊκοί κανονισμοί και δημόσιοι/ιδιωτικοί επενδυτές
εξέφρασαν το ενδιαφέρον τους για τις ΑΠΕ (πρωτόκολλο του Κιότο, οδηγία ΕΕ-20/20/20). Αυτή η πρόταση αναλύει
το ρόλο των ΑΠΕ στην Ελλάδα χρησιμοποιώντας δύο διαφορετικές μεθόδους για να αξιολογήσει ένα νέο μοντέλο
ανάπτυξης. Πρώτον, η “από-πάνω-προς-τα-κάτω” στρατηγική (Παράρτημα) αναλύει τη μακροοικονομική
κατάσταση στην Ελλάδα, έπειτα τις ευκαιρίες στο χώρο των ΑΠΕ και τέλος τις εναλλακτικές χρηματοδότησης, ώστε
να καταρτιστεί ένα ρεαλιστικό μοντέλο ανάπτυξης. Η συνέντευξη με την κα Debevoise (ΕΤΑΑ), αποδεικνύει ότι οι
προτάσεις χρηματοδότησης είναι ρεαλιστικές. Δεύτερον, η κοινωνικοοικονομική ανάλυση επισημαίνει τη θετική
επίδραση των ΑΠΕ σε διάφορες πτυχές της κοινωνίας. Η κοινή γνώμη και ο ρόλος της κυβέρνησης είναι ζωτικής
σημασίας για την ευημερία των ΑΠΕ. Η επιτυχία αυτού του νέου μοντέλου ανάπτυξης είναι έντονα
ευθυγραμμισμένη με τις κυβερνητικές δεσμεύσεις(2010): i) 40% παραγωγή ενέργειας από ΑΠΕ, ii) 30% ενεργειακή
αποδοτικότητα σε τομείς, όπως νοικοκυριά, βιομηχανία, δημόσια κτίρια, iii) 100% χρήση έξυπνων μετρητών και iv)
100% διασύνδεσης δικτύου με τα νησιά. Ως εκ τούτου, οι δύο μέθοδοι που αναφέρονται παραπάνω και η βάση
δεδομένων έργων θα προσπαθήσουν να αξιολογήσουν πόσο ρεαλιστικοί είναι αυτοί οι στόχοι.
Τα συμπεράσματα από την “από-πάνω-προς-τα-κάτω” προσέγγιση αποκαλύπτουν ένα μη-ελκυστικό
μακροοικονομικό περιβάλλον για επενδύσεις, ενώ ορισμένες αδυναμίες της οικονομίας μπορούν να μετατραπούν
σε ευκαιρίες, π.χ. το χαμηλό κόστος εργασίας και η υψηλή κατάρτιση μηχανικής της νέας γενιάς μπορούν να
προσελκύσουν ξένους επενδυτές. Η ανάλυση του ενεργειακού τομέα αποκαλύπτει προοπτικές ανάπτυξης των ΑΠΕ.
Ο νέος επενδυτής για τον ΑΔΜΗΕ θα αναβαθμίσει το εθνικό δίκτυο και μελλοντικά έργα θα συνδεθούν σ’αυτό. Οι
μεταρρυθμίσεις, ιδιωτικοποιήσεις, η πώληση του ΑΔΜΗΕ σε στρατηγικό επενδυτή και ο διαχωρισμός του 30% της
ΔΕΗ θα δημιουργήσουν ένα ανταγωνιστικό περιβάλλον. Οι προτεινόμενες “κυβερνητικές”’ τιμές ενέργειας (FiT2010) συγκρίνονται με τον χρηματοοικονομικό δείκτη LCOE για διαφορετικές τεχνολογίες, αναδεικνύοντας νέες
ευκαιρίες για επενδύσεις σε αιολικά, υδροηλεκτρικά και έργα βιομάζας. Η ανάλυση των ευκαιριών
χρηματοδότησης αναφέρεται σε όλους τους κινδύνους που αντιμετωπίζουν οι επενδυτές κατά τη διάρκεια του
έργου (προ-κατασκευή, κατασκευή, λειτουργία). Ως πηγές χρηματοδότησης αναλύονται τα ιδιωτικά κεφάλαια, οι
δημόσιες αγορές/διεθνείς οργανισμοί, ο εσωτερικός δανεισμός και οι συγχωνεύσεις. Στατιστικά στοιχεία διεθνών
οργανισμών (Παγκόσμια Τράπεζα, ΕΤΑΑ-REEP Δυτικών Βαλκανίων), μαζί με τα στοιχεία από τη συνέντευξη,
αποδεικνύουν πως τα πράσινα ομόλογα ($ 11δις. εκδόθηκαν από τον IFC-2014) και οι δημόσιες αγορές είναι οι
τρόποι χρηματοδότησης με το χαμηλότερο ρίσκο και τις μεγαλύτερες προοπτικές για την Ελλάδα. Η ΕΤΑΑ
αξιολογεί θετικά τη συγχρηματοδότηση με στρατηγικούς επενδυτές του ΑΔΜΗΕ, τις ιδιωτικοποιήσεις(Δ.Ε.Η.) και το
προβλεπόμενο σχέδιο διασύνδεσης των νησιών με την ηπειρωτική χώρα, που θα ενισχύσει τα συμφέροντα των
ΑΠΕ. Τέλος, αναλύεται και ο ρόλος των ελληνικών εμπορικών τραπεζών (Παράρτημα).
Η παράθεση των έργων υπό σχεδιασμό/κατασκευή χρησιμοποιείται για να καταλάβουμε πώς μπορεί να επιτευχθεί
το 40% της παραγωγής από ΑΠΕ. Η ανάλυση αποδεικνύει ότι μέχρι το 2020-2025 η παραγωγή μπορεί να φτάσει τις
13.90GW. Για να επιτευχθεί αυτός ο στόχος, η Ελλάδα χρειάζεται νέες επενδύσεις σε αιολική ενέργεια (δυναμική
χωρητικότητα 7,5GW), στη βιομάζα (εκκρεμούν 200MW), σε αντλιοστάσια (εκκρεμούν 780MW), στη γεωθερμία
(εκκρεμούν 72MW), ενώ η κυματική ενέργεια μπορεί να αναπτυχθεί με δυνητική παραγωγή μέχρι 5.1MW. Τα
φωτοβολταϊκά και υδροηλεκτρικά έργα υπερβαίνουν τον προβλεπόμενο κυβερνητικό στόχο (2,2GW, 350MW
αντίστοιχα).
Η κοινωνικοοικονομική ανάλυση υποδεικνύει ότι 30.000 θέσεις εργασίας μπορούν να δημιουργηθούν και οι ΑΠΕ
θα συμβάλλουν στην ανάπτυξη της υψηλής τεχνικής εκπαίδευσης, της επιχειρηματικότητας και της καινοτομίας.
Μπορούμε να ελαχιστοποιήσουμε τις εκπομπές CO2, να πουλήσουμε ενέργεια σε άλλες χώρες μέσω των αγωγών
διασύνδεσης προς την Ευρώπη και τα έσοδα να συμβάλουν στην αποπληρωμή του χρέους. Οι ΑΠΕ θα
προσελκύσουν νέους ξένους επενδυτές που θα μεταφέρουν τεχνογνωσία, χρηματοδοτήσεις τοπικών έργων και θα
αναπτύξουν συνεργασίες με τοπικά πανεπιστήμια για νέα ερευνητικά εργαστήρια. Νεοφυείς επιχειρήσεις μπορούν
να οδηγήσουν στον εκσυγχρονισμό της ενεργειακής βιομηχανίας με νέες ιδέες και εφαρμογές για την
εξοικονόμηση ενέργειας των καταναλωτών και η Ελλάδα μπορεί να είναι γίνει ένας νέος κόμβος καινοτομίας και
ενέργειας για την Ευρώπη.
Georgios Kalpias – March 2015 – London,UK
Greek Economic Forum – Harvard University
|3
APPENDIX
Graph 1: Top down strategic analysis
• GDP growth: 0.7% for 2014, -0.4% for 2015, inflation: -2.8% for Jan 2015
Macroeconomic
analysis
Renewable energy
sector analysis
Financing
Opportunities
•Current political and business environment for RES: regulatory policies, utility quota obligation, net metering, fiscal incentives tax incentives, public financing
•Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP): 12% (Eurostat - data for 2014), total value for 2014 - $7,597.72 Million
•Gross investments (% of GDP): 12,77% (IMF for Q4 2014), Government spending: $13,315.3 Million (National Statistical Services
of Greece - Jan - 15)
•Unemployment rate: 25.8%, Population: 11m in 2014, Labour cost: 77.9 index points - Eurostat metric, Minimum wage: $831.15
•Credit rating: S&P: B- with negative trend, Moody's: Caa1, Fitch: B with negative trend
•FDI net inflows (BoP, current US$): $2,945.42 Million (World Bank data for 2013)
•%RES in electricity production in Greece = 13% in 2010, 22% target for 2015, 28% in 2020 (Greek Ministry of Energy)
•5y CAGR for Renewables generation = 23.1% (EY data from 2008 to 2013)
•Capital flow = $1,537.47 Million in December of 2014 from $1,058.58 Million in November of 2014 (Bank of Greece)
•Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for wind/solar/biomass/marine/hydro/geothermal is analysed in order to find at which price
energy must be sold for an energy project to break even, where LCOE = Total Life Cycle cost / Total lifetime energy production.
Confidential data is provided from EDF Energy Nouvelles
• Different energy policies will be examined (tax incentives, debt financing, different accounting methods) which can
increase/decrease the LCOE for the different energy projects
•Alternative energy as % of total energy used: 3.4% (World Bank data till 2014)
•Combustible renewables and waste as % of total energy: 5.2% (World Bank data till 2014)
•Energy imports , net (% of energy use): 61% (World Bank data till 2014)
•TPES: 27 Mtoe (oil 52%, coal 27%, natural gas 12%, renewables 7.5%), ‐0.1% on average per year since 2000 (IEA)
•TFC: 20.6 Mtoe in 2009 (transport 41%, residential 24%, industry 21%, other 15%), ‐0.6% on average per year since 2000 (IEA)
•Electricity generation: 60.8 TWh (coal 45%, natural gas 27%, oil 13%, hydro 11%, wind 4% - IEA)
•Inland energy production: 9.2 Mtoe, 34% of total energy supply (IEA)
•Key role of the government to make RES projects attractive to private developers and financiers
• Different financing opportunities will be evaluated in terms of risk, cost of capital and from the financiers' perspective what can
be the level (high/low) of their expected return. Venture Capital, Private Equities, Public Markets, Asset Finance, M&As are
described as potential financing sources
•Financing practices in different European countries will be presented (World Energy Council-Bloomberg New Energy Finance)
•IFIs (EBRD/EIB/World Bank) are potential investors for Greece. Evidence from the interview with Ms Debevoise, will be provided.
•Greek commercial banks have still appetite to finance Energy and Infrastructure projects however their capacity is limited. This
situation can give more incentives for small generators – SMEs – to develop embedded generation projects.
•Recent announcement from EBRD to establish an office in Athens - The request was reconfirmed by the new government on 2
February 2015. Following the Governors’ approval the EBRD will now engage with the Greek authorities to prepare a country
strategy for Greece which will provide the framework for its engagement and identify priorities.
Table 1: Key financing metrics for RES - data provided from EDF Energy Nouvelles for Greece/Balkan Area
Technology
Onshore Wind
Offshore Wind
Solar PV
Crystalline silicon (c-Si) PV
Solar thermal-parabolic
trough
Tower and heliostat
Incineration
Landfill gas
MSW
Gasification
Tidal
Wave
Small hydro
Large hydro
CAPEX ($m/MW)
1.39–1.63
4.29–6.08
1.63
2.37–5.03
No storage 3.42–7.67
with storage 6.00–10.96
No storage 4.08–6.12
with storage 6.00–8.66
2.00–5.40
1.54–2.47
2.90–7.70
3.60–6.40
9.28
8.78
1.40–3.68
1.59–4.15
OPEX $/MW/yr
20,000–22,500
100,000 –160,000
25,000
40,050–99,900
No storage 63,340– 59,907
with storage 61,574– 63,700
No storage 68,265–64,714
with storage 70,403–117,313
90,000 –200,000
90,000 –200,000
90,000 –200,000
90,000 –200,000
~130,000
~150,000
15,002–85,000
20,000–62,000
Capacity Factor (%)
26–29
32–42
19
18–29
No storage 24–28
with storage 28–42
No storage 21–32
with storage 42–64
~85
60–90
80
80
35
30
23–80
20–75
LCOE ($/MWh)
88–91
147–367
109
90–397
No storage 201–490
with storage 156–469
No storage 167–399
with storage 105–317
50–200
45–95
80–210
50–140
451
496
19–314
24–302
Note: For projects that there is no previous experience in Greece and in the Balkan area (i.e.
marine
energy)
metrics
from European
Georgios
Kalpias
– March
2015 – London,UK
projects are provided
Greek Economic Forum – Harvard University | 4
Table 2: RES projects database
Project
Wind Energy
Company
Location
Capacity
Total: 2,1GW
CAPEX/Status
FiT $/MWh
FiT prices* ($/MWh)
Derveni-Mikro Derveni-Sliva
Terna -Energy
Evros
24MW
N/A under construction
87.84
W/F Eressou Ipsoma Fourka
Terna-Energy
Central Macedonia
36MW
N/A under construction
87.84
Lefkes Kerasia
Terna - Energy
Kozani
14MW
N/A under construction
87.84
Pikrovouni
Terna - Energy
Evritania
10.8MW
N/A under construction
87.84
Kastri- Kokkalia
Terna -Energy
Evritania
18.9MW
N/A under construction
87.84
Karavi- Alogovouni
Terna - Energy
Evritania
23.4MW
N/A under construction
87.84
Timpano - Tripiri
Terna-Energy
Evritania
13.5MW
N/A under construction
87.84
Psiloma Soros
Terna-Energy
Viotia
12MW
N/A under construction
87.84
Mavrovouni Extension
Terna-Energy
Viotia
10MW
N/A under construction
87.84
Servouni - Vorina Litharia
Terna-Energy
Evia
9.6MW
N/A under construction
87.84
Servouni - Kalogeriki Rachi
Terna -Energy
Evia
9.6MW
N/A under construction
87.84
St. George Island
Terna -Energy
Attica
73.2MW
$168m
95.17
Ptoon and Maristi
Eren Holding Gamesa
Sterea Ellada
82MW
N/A under construction
107.7
Aliveria
METKA
Evia
417MW
$310m
95.17
Lemnos
RF Energy
North Aegean
498MW
$2.15billions
107.7
Wind Parks
PPC Renewables
Limnos/Lsevos/Chios
706MW
$3.1billions
107.7
Rodopi wind farm
PPC Renewables
Evros
300MW
$644.73m
95.17
Karditsa project
PPC Renewables
Thessalia
30MW
In the pipeline
87.84
Pella project
PPC Renewables
Macedonia
14MW
In the pipeline
87.84
Kalon Oros Leukadas
PPC Renewables
Ionian sea
10MW
In the pipeline
107.7
Mamadou Tinos 4,50
PPC Renewables
Aegean sea
4.5MW
In the pipeline
107.7
Koprino Rethimnou
PPC Renewables
Crete
9.9MW
In the pipeline
87.84
Makrotalados Androu
PPC Renewables
Andros
11.50MW
In the pipeline
107.7
Tragoudisti Sifnou
PPC Renewables
Aegean sea
1.80MW
In the pipeline
107.7
Xerakia Kefalonias
PPC Renewables
Ionian sea
10MW
In the pipeline
107.7
Pythagoreion Samou
PPC Renewables
East Aegean
0.9MW
In the pipeline
107.7
Tigani Mykonou
PPC Renewables
Aegean
1.80MW
In the pipeline
107.7
Onshore projects
Proposed
Macedonia/Thessalia
3,5GW
Potential proposal
87.84
Offshore projects
Proposed
Aegean/Ionian sea
2,7GW
Potential proposal
107.7
Solar PV
Total: 10GW
Loggarakia
Terna -Energy
Argolida
1.91MW
282.7
Helios Solar PV
Joint Venture
10000MW
$20b
282.7
Megalopoli Park
PPC Renewables
Megalopoli
50MW
202
282.7
No data available
Terna-Energy
33MW
In the pipeline
282.7
Stratos Agriniou
PPC Renewables
Sterea Ellada
9.70MW
In the pipeline
282.7
Ptolemaida project
PPC Renewables
Ptolemaida
200MW
282.7
Steges Project
PPC Renewables
Athens
0.8MW
In the pipeline
282.7
Steges Project
PPC Renewables
Thessaloniki
0.35MW
In the pipeline
282.7
Pumped Storage
Total: 100MW
Lasithi
EDF Group
Crete
100MW
$667m
87.84
Thessalia area
Proposed
Thessalia
300MW
Potential proposal
87.84
Pelloponisos
Proposed
Pelloponisos
420MW
Potential proposal
87.84
Large/small Hydro plant
Total: 952.62MW
Holding license
Terna -Energy
748MW
87.84
No data available
Terna-Energy
180MW
In the pipeline
87.84
Smokovos IΙ project 3,20
PPC Renewables
Thessalia
3.20MW
In the pipeline
87.84
Alatopetra project
PPC Renewables
Grevena/Macedonia
2.43MW
In the pipeline
87.84
Ilariona Kozanis project
PPC Renewables
Kozani/Macedonia
4.20MW
In the pipeline
87.84
Kalamas project
PPC Renewables
Ipiros
2.79MW
In the pipeline
87.84
Ladona project
PPC Renewables
Pelloponisos
4.90MW
In the pipeline
87.84
Makrochori II project
PPC Renewables
Macedonia
4.84MW
In the pipeline
87.84
Mesoxora project
PPC Renewables
Trikala/Thessalia
1.60MW
In the pipeline
87.84
Pournari III project
PPC Renewables
Sterea Ellada
0.66MW
In the pipeline
87.84
Hybrid projects
Total: 230MW
Crete project
Terna-Energy
Crete
50MW+80MW wind
$270m
87.84
Biomass - Biogas
Total: 48MW
No data available
Terna-Energy
19MW
In the pipeline
87.84
EuroEnergy
Libra Group
Xanthi
4MW
$27m (pipeline)
87.84
Kozani project
PPC Renewables
Kozani/Macedonia
25MW
In the pipeline
87.84
Thessalia project
Proposed
Thessalia
80MW
Potential proposal
87.84
Marine Energy**
Total 5.1MW
Kasos-Crete path
Proposed
Crete
Max 1.7MW
No proposal
107.7
Crete-Kithira path
Proposed
Crete
Max 1.7MW
No proposal
107.7
Rhodes-Karpathos path
Proposed
Rhodes
Max 1.7MW
No proposal
107.7
Geothermal Energy
Total: 23MW
Methana project
PPC Renewables
Pelloponisos
5MW
In the pipeline
87.84
Kimolos project
PPC Renewables
Aegean sea
5MW
In the pipeline
87.84
Lesvos
PPC Renewables
Aegeanand
seathrough high-efficiency8MW
theand
pipeline
87.84
*Note:
Lawproject
L3468/2006 “Generation of electricity
from renewable energy sources
co-generation of electricity andInheat
miscellaneous provisions” set in detail the
pricing of electricity
Nisirosfrom
project
PPC
Renewables
Aegean
seagovernment in June 2010
5MW
In the
pipeline
produced
RES. Prices above are final ones
after
the latest re-adjustment
from the
- L3851/2010. The tariff of the
electricity
produced from photovoltaic plants is87.84
modified, taking into
account the significant reduction of the relevant investment cost during the period 2006-2009, and prices are for 2014 standards.
Georgios Kalpias – March 2015 – London,UK
|5
**Note: Maximum capacity for marine energy in these areas of the Aegean sea is calculated through the POSEIDON system, which measures
the height of
waves –– Harvard
study developed
by Emmanouil Oikonomou Greece,
Greek Economic
Forum
University
2009.
Table 3: Social and Economic impact assessment
Type of Impact
Economic
Investments and income distribution
Description/Justification
Local municipalities can rent areas to generators (proposed $4,861.92 /year/wind
turbine)
Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs)
EDF has signed a strategic alliance with PPC for a Hybrid-Pump storage facility of 100
MWe for an initial investment of $365m. Vestas, Enel, G.E.S, Alstom , RWE and other
international firms already operate in Greece, while the proposed financing and
political environment will attract even more investors.
Social Cohesion and Development
Employment rates
10.000 full time jobs (evidence – EDF) can be created and 20.000 part time jobs for
O&M activities, till 2025. Employment created will be medium/high skills, which can
develop a “competition” for excellence and technical skills in the local economy.
Education
Local universities can offer executive education, seminars, develop new research
centers with private support, which can increase universities’ sources. FDIs will bring
technical and managerial knowhow.
Environment
Compared with natural gas, which emits between 0.6 and 2 pounds of CO2 equivalent
per kilowatt-hour (CO2E/kWh), and coal, which emits between 1.4 and 3.6 pounds of
CO2E/kWh, wind emits only 0.02 to 0.04 pounds of CO2E/kWh, solar 0.07 to 0.2,
geothermal 0.1 to 0.2, and hydroelectric between 0.1 and 0.5. Renewable electricity
generation from biomass can have a wide range of global warming emissions
depending on the resource and how it is harvested. Sustainably sourced biomass has a
low emissions footprint, while unsustainable sources of biomass can generate
significant global warming emissions. The local flora and fauna is important variable
for the location of the proposed projects (Reference – IPCC report 2011)
Human Development
Job opportunities and improvement of standard of living can increase self confidence
of local population (especially for the young generation)
Entrepreneurship and Innovation
Start ups
The success of RES depends on a high tech grid. Smart metering project is under
planning stage. RES and smart meters can establish a momentum for new start ups
(EDF Energy’s G-bug app for smart meters and energy control at homes). Greece can
be a high tech hub for Europe since recent surveys showed the high potential of Greek
start ups globally.
Manufacturing
The low labor cost along with the high supply of engineers in the market (60%
unemployment for young people) could attract manufacturing businesses to launch
their operations in Greece in order to support the construction and O&M phases of
RES and avoid time consuming and costly transportations.
SMEs:
Local transmission network losses are (5-7) % and costs are paid for those who import
energy to the grid. These losses incentivize small generators to develop embedded
generation RES and sell back energy to big suppliers. Net metering policy: encourages
small-scale energy developments for local distributed generation. Customers are
allowed to offset their electricity consumption by injecting renewable energy into the
grid.
Strategic Advantage
Interconnectors
Grid connections for islands with the mainland, along with other projects in the Balkan
area, subsidized from EIB/EBRD, can progress Greece as crucial energy hub for trading
and exports to Asia, Africa and Europe (TAP, Southern Gas corridor project and other
interconnectors for gas supply justify the high geographical potential)
Georgios Kalpias – March 2015 – London,UK
Greek Economic Forum – Harvard University
|6
Graph 2: Annual Green Bond Issuance by Issuer Type
Source: Bloomberg, World Bank, public sources
Image 1: Interconnectors projects for Greece
Source: Ministry of Energy and Climate change
Graph 3: Investments by Beneficiary and Sector (%) – Western Balkans Investment Framework - EU
Source: EBRD-REEP for Western Balkan
Georgios Kalpias – March 2015 – London,UK
Greek Economic Forum – Harvard University
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