The Black Swan 44: Tactical Rules for Survival (and success) in Looney times* (*plus “the basics”) Tom Peters/03 October 2008
Download ReportTranscript The Black Swan 44: Tactical Rules for Survival (and success) in Looney times* (*plus “the basics”) Tom Peters/03 October 2008
The Black Swan 44: Tactical Rules for Survival (and success) in Looney times* (*plus “the basics”) Tom Peters/03 October 2008 To appreciate this presentation [and ensure that it is not a mess], you need Microsoft fonts: NOTE: “Showcard Gothic,” “Ravie,” “Chiller” and “Verdana” The Black Swan 44 The Black Swan has landed! Career = 1 or 2 black swans “I [will] not accept the explanation of a recession negatively effecting the [new] business. There are still people traveling. We just have to get them to stay in our hotel.” —Horst Schulze, former president of Ritz Carlton, on his new luxury hotel chain, Capella, from Prestige (06.08) Black Swan Tactical Rules 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. K.I.S.S. Hammer on the basics. Focus on us, not the competition. Puzzle-solving: How to turn this into an opportunity. MBWA/X. MBWA/I. MBWA/Vendors. Waaaaay over-communicate!!!!!! (With everyone—start with your banker.) MBWA Black Swan Tactical Rules 9. All work is team work. 10. Transparency. 11. Work the phones. 12. Perception of fairness. 13. Share the pain. 14. Decency!!!!!!! 15. Grace!! 16. “Thank you.” 17. Control your impatience— no temper tantrums. 18. Constant attitude checks—you. Work the phones! "’Overcommunication never hurts. If it is something significant, I would just pick up the phone and call Ben [Bernanke]. . . . One of the things I do is I create an atmosphere where I am so direct and so open and collaborative with people I trust that it brings out the same in them.” —Hank Paulson Black Swan Tactical Rules 19. Dress for success. 20. Avoid burnout/you, the team, the entire organization. 21. Re-emphasize the company values-philosophy. (Now, more than ever.) 22. Quality!!!!!! (Now, more than ever.) 23. No corner cutting. (Now, more than ever.) 24. Constant reviews/War room. 25. Celebration of small wins. Black Swan Tactical Rules 26. People First/HR is King. 27. Help people with personal financial management. 28. Be generous to those who are let go—e.g. healthcare benefits. 29. Don’t over-analyze. 30. Don’t under-analyze. 31. Cuts all at once—if possible. 32. Cuts explained in great detail. 33. Quantitative calendar management—focus on “to don’ts.” 100 Ways to Succeed #139: Work the Damn Phones! Treble Your MBWA!* One of my favorite quotes, from Carolyn Lamb , goes like this: “A year from now you may wish you had started today.” Yes, today many of us wish we had “wildly” “over”invested in those employee-vendor-clientcommunity relationships when the market was heading North and there was a little slack in the system. Well, perhaps we didn’t, but, and I’m not “doing a Tony Robbins” here, it really is never too late. That is: Work the damn phones. Keep working the damn phones. Show up. Keep showing up. Call clients and suppliers, ask them how things are going, and how you can help. This is not about sales (directly), but about “showing up”—taking time from your busy affairs to offer assistance of any sort. (E.g., offer up your network: “Well, Dave [one of your key suppliers], I know Ed Simpson, over there at [one of Dave’s problem clients]; his daughter and mine are co-captains of the [name of school] soccer team; I can give him a call for you if you’d like.” Etc.) This is even more important with our employees.** “Over”inform—the rumors are invariably worse than reality. “Over”do your MBWA—managing by wandering around. Keep your enthusiasm up if it kills you—not in a dopey grin, “all is well” way, but by exhibiting energy and masking any internal doom & gloom expressions that may in fact be just beneath the surface. [**I use the formal word “employees” here, a word I ordinarily dislike. But the point is that you do have a formal hierarchal relationship with those on your payroll, and thence a formal as well as an abiding moral obligation concerning their and their families’ well-being.] *A series of ideas from tompeters.com Black Swan Tactical Rules 34. Increase customer-service training. 35. In general, minimize training cuts. 36. Be(very)ware R&D cuts; R&D quick pay SWAT teams. 37. Beware such things as sales travel cuts, ad cuts. 38. “Across the board” = Dumb. 39. Is this a time to over-invest if cash is at hand? (E.g., distressed innovative start-ups?) Black Swan Tactical Rules 40. Stealth work on the likes of XF communication. 41. This could last a long time— LT prep is necessary now. 42. Prepare/Be prepared for more Black Swans. 43. Excellence. (Now, more than ever.) (44. Remember all this in peacetime—Chuck Knight’s legacy.) this is your life. Think this is your life. Think The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it. Michelangelo Tom Peters’ EXCELLENCE. ALWAYS. The Basics. 03 October 2008 L(+21) = L(-21) Leadership(21A.D.) = Leadership(21B.C.) Sunday “Drive By”: The CEO of a very successful mid-sized bank, in the Mid-west, attended a seminar of mine in Northern California in the mid-80s—but I remember the following as if it were yesterday. I’ve forgotten the specific context, but I recall him saying to me, “Tom let me tell you the definition of a good lending officer. After church on Sunday, on the way home with his family, he takes a little detour to drive by the factory he just lent money to. Doesn’t go in or any such thing, just drives by and takes a sniff.” pretty much word for word, Thank you Ben & Norm, Ike , Gust, David, Mark, Muhammad, Nelson, Ben II and Delaware … L(+21) = L(-21) Leadership(21A.D.) = Leadership(21B.C.) Give good tea! “Allied commands depend on mutual confidence [and this confidence] is gained, above all through the development of friendships.” —General D.D. Eisenhower, Armchair General * (05.08) *“Perhaps his most outstanding ability [at West Point] was the ease with which he made friends and earned the trust of fellow cadets who came from widely varied backgrounds; it was a quality that would pay great dividends during his future coalition command.” George Crile (Charlie Wilson’s War) on Gust “He had become something of a legend with these people who manned the underbelly of the Agency [CIA].” Avrakotos’ strategy: General David Petraeus’ “White lines along the road”: “Secure and serve the population. Live among the people. Promote reconciliation. Move mounted, work dismounted; situational awareness can only be achieved by operating face-to-face, not separated by ballistic glass. Walk.*” —David Petraeus, Men’s Journal (06.08) * “I love that last one for its simplicity.” —DP 3K/5M 5,000 miles for a 5-minute face-to -face meeting —Mark McCormack, super-agent MBWA, Grameen Style! “Conventional banks ask their clients to come to their office. It’s a terrifying place for the poor and illiterate. … The entire Grameen Bank system runs on the principle that people should not come to the bank, the bank should go to the people. … If any staff member is seen in the office, it should be taken as a violation of the rules of the Grameen Bank. … It is essential that [those setting up a new village Branch] have no office and no place to stay. The reason is to make us as different as possible from government officials.” Source: Muhammad Yunus, Banker to the Poor “I am a dispenser of enthusiasm.” —Ben Zander “eighty percent of success is showing up.” —Woody Allen The Real World’s “Little” Rule Book Ben/tea Norm/tea DDE/make friends WFBuckley/make friends-help friends Gust/Suck down Charlie/poker pal-BOF Eddie VII/dance-flatter-mingle-learn the language Vlad/birthday party of outgroup guy’s wife CIO/finance network ERP installer/consult-“one line of code” GE Energy/make friends risk assessment GWB/put Jim on the invitation list GHWB/T-notes Hank/60 calls MarkM/5K-5M Delaware/show up Oppy/snub Lewis Strauss NM/smile -$4.3T/tin ear TP/3M, I’m sorry tp.com/Big 4-What do you think? Women/genes Banker/after church Total Bloody Mess/Can they pay back the loan? Excellence1982: The Bedrock “Eight Basics” 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. A Bias for Action Close to the Customer Autonomy and Entrepreneurship Productivity Through People Hands On, Value-Driven Stick to the Knitting Simple Form, Lean Staff Simultaneous Loose-Tight Properties” “Breakthrough” 82* People! Customers! Action! Values! *In Search of Excellence Hard Is Soft Soft Is Hard Hard Is Soft (Plans, #s) Soft Is Hard (people, customers, values, relationships)) Thank you , Herb and Robert … “You have to treat your employees like customers.” —Herb Kelleher, complete answer, upon being asked his “secrets to success” Source: Joe Nocera, NYT, “Parting Words of an Airline Pioneer,” on the occasion of Herb Kelleher’s retirement after 37 years at Southwest Airlines (SWA’s pilots union took out a full-page ad in USA Today thanking HK for all he had done; across the way in Dallas American Airlines’ pilots were picketing the Annual Meeting) “The role of the Director is to create a space where the actors and become more than they’ve ever been before, more than they’ve dreamed of being.” actresses can —Robert Altman, Oscar acceptance speech Thank you , Siberia and A.I.M. … Why in the World did you go to Siberia? An emotional, vital, innovative, joyful, creative, entrepreneurial endeavor that elicits maximum Enterprise* ** (*at its best): concerted human potential in the wholehearted service of others.** **Employees, Customers, Suppliers, Communities, Owners, Temporary partners … no less than Cathedrals in which the full and awesome power of the Imagination and Spirit and native Entrepreneurial flair of diverse individuals is unleashed in passionate pursuit of … Excellence. Thank you , 7-11… “How to flush $500,000 down the toilet in one easy lesson!!” TP: < CAPEX > People! “Diverse groups of problem solvers— groups of people with diverse tools— consistently outperformed groups of the best and the brightest. If I formed two groups, one random (and therefore diverse) and one consisting of the best individual performers, the first group almost always did better. … Diversity trumped ability.” —Scott Page, The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies Diversity ‘do’ “Leaders people. Period.” —Anon. “The leaders of Great Groups love talent and know where to find it. They revel in the talent of others.” —Warren Bennis & Patricia Ward Biederman, Organizing Genius Brand = Talent. Our Mission To develop and manage talent; to apply that talent, throughout the world, for the benefit of clients; to do so in partnership; to do so with profit. WPP #1/100 “Best Companies to Work for”/2005 Wegmans The Dream Manager —Matthew Kelly “An organization can only become the-best-version-ofitself to the extent that the people who drive that organization are striving to become better-versions-ofthemselves.” “A company’s purpose is to become thebest-version-of-itself. The question is: What is an employee’s purpose? Most would say, ‘to help the company achieve its purpose’—but they would be wrong. That is certainly part of the employee’s role, but an employee’s primary purpose is to become the-bestversion-of-himself or –herself. … When a company forgets that it exists to serve customers, it quickly goes Our employees are our first customers, and our most important customers.” out of business. #1 cause of Dis-satisfaction? 2/year = legacy. Thank you , Clyde, Michael and Sally … “One of the defining characteristics [of the change] is that it will be less driven by countries or corporations and more driven by real people. It will unleash unprecedented creativity, advancement of knowledge, and economic development. But at the same time, it will tend to undermine safety net systems and penalize the unskilled.” —Clyde Prestowitz, Three Billion New Capitalists “If there is nothing very special about your work, no matter how hard you apply yourself you won’t get noticed, and that increasingly means you won’t get paid much either.” —Michael Goldhaber, Wired BRAND YOU. NO OPTION. Distinct … … or Extinct New Work SurvivalKit.2008 1. MASTERY! (Best/Absurdly Good at Something!) 2. “Manage” to Legacy (All Work = “Memorable”/“Braggable” WOW Projects!) 3. A “USP”/UNIQUE SELLING PROPOSITION 4. Rolodex Obsession (From vertical/hierarchy/“suck up” loyalty to horizontal/“colleague”/“mate” loyalty) 5. ENTREPRENEURIAL INSTINCT (A sleepless … Eye for Opportunity! 6.CEO/LEADER/BUSINESSPERSON/CLOSER (CEO, Me Inc. 24/7!) 7. Master of Improv (Play a dozen parts simultaneously, from Chief Strategist to Chief Toilet Scrubber) 8. Sense of Humor (A willingness to Screw Up & Move On) 9. Comfortable with Your Skin (Bring “interesting you” to work!) 10. Intense Appetite for Technology (E.g.: How Cool-Active is your Web site? Do you Blog?) 11. EMBRACE “MARKETING” (Your own CSO/Chief Storytelling Officer) 12. PASSION FOR RENEWAL (Your own CLO/Chief Learning Officer) 13. EXECUTION EXCELLENCE! (Show up on time! Leave last!) “The only thing you have power over is to get good at what you do. That’s all there is; there ain’t no more!” —Sally Field Thank you , Conrad and Fred … Conrad Hilton, at a gala celebrating his life, was asked, “What was the most important lesson you’ve learned in you long and distinguished career?” His immediate answer … Conrad Hilton, at a gala celebrating his life, was asked, “What was the most important lesson you’ve learned in you long and distinguished career?” His immediate answer: “remember to tuck the shower curtain inside the bathtub” “Execution is strategy.” —Fred Malek Thank you , Rich … “Mapping your competitive position”* or … *Rich D’Aveni/HBR The “Have you …” 50* *See Appendix One While waiting last week [early December 2007] in the Albany airport to board a Southwest Airlines flight to Reagan, I happened across the latest Harvard Business Review, on the cover of which was a yellow sticker. The sticker had on it the words “Mapping your competitive position.” It referred to a feature article by my friend Rich D’Aveni. His work is uniformly good—and I have said as much publicly on several occasions dating back 15 years. I’m sure this article is good, too—though I didn’t read it. In fact it triggered a furious negative “Tom reaction” as my wife calls it. Of course I believe you should But instead of obsessing on competitive position and other abstractions, as the B-schools and consultants would always have us do, I instead wondered about some “practical stuff” which I believe is more important to the short- and long-term health of the enterprise, tiny or enormous. worry about your “competitive position.” 1. Have you in the last 10 days … visited a customer? 2. Have you called a customer … TODAY? * * * 1. Have you in the last 10 days … visited a customer? 2. Have you called a customer … TODAY? 3. Have you in the last 60-90 days … had a seminar in which several folks from the customer’s operation (different levels, different functions, different divisions) interacted, via facilitator, with various of your folks? 4. Have you thanked a front-line employee for a small act of helpfulness … in the last three days? 5. Have you thanked a front-line employee for a small act of helpfulness … in the last three hours? 6. Have you thanked a frontline employee for carrying around a great attitude … today? 7. Have you in the last week recognized—publicly—one of your folks for a small act of cross-functional co-operation? 8. Have you in the last week recognized—publicly—one of “their” folks (another function) for a small act of cross-functional co-operation? 9. Have you invited in the last month a leader of another function to your weekly team priorities meeting? 10. Have you personally in the last week-month called-visited an internal or external customer to sort out, inquire, or apologize for some little or big thing that went awry? (No reason for doing so? If true—in your mind—then you’re more out of touch than I dared imagine.) The “XF-50”: 50 Ways to Enhance Cross-Functional Effectiveness and Deliver Speed, “Service Excellence” and “Value-added Customer ‘Solutions’”* *Entire “XF-50” List is an Appendix to the LONG version of this presentation, posted at tompeters.com X =XFX* *Excellence = Cross-functional Excellence GSK/CEDD Conoco/geologists-geophysicists Flag requirement/joint staff Stanford/X-disc #1 Dartmouth-Hitchcock/microsystems 3M Austin/physical Never waste a lunch! ???? % XF lunches* *Measure! Thank you , Richard , Dennis and Marcus … “I used to have a rule for myself that at any point in time I wanted to have in mind — as it so happens, also in writing, on a little card I carried around with me — the three big things I was trying to get done. Three. Not two. Not four. Not five. Not ten. Three.” — Richard Haass, The Power to Persuade “Dennis, you need a … ‘To-don’t ’ List !” “The one thing you need to know about sustained individual success: Discover what you don’t like doing and stop doing it.” —Marcus Buckingham, The One Thing You Need to Know You = Your calendar* *Calendars never lie Thank you Dr. Groopman … In How Doctors Think, Harvard Med doc Jerome Groopman tells us that the best way to get a fix on what ails a patient is to get the patient talking openly about his-her problem. Great. But the research shows that docs, on average, leap to a conclusion and interrupt their patients after … 18 seconds. (Docs are hardly alone. This is a disease present in almost all specialists and professionals. “Listening” for a professional invariably means … talking.) Thank you , Dave … “The four most important words in any organization ‘What do you think?’ ” are … Source: courtesy Dave Wheeler, posted at tompeters.com, source of original unknown (0609.08) Relationships THERE ONCE WAS A TIME WHEN A THREE-MINUTE PHONE CALL WOULD HAVE AVOIDED SETTING OFF THE DOWNWARD SPIRAL THAT RESULTED IN A COMPLETE RUPTURE. (of all varieties) : THE PROBLEM IS RARELY/NEVER THE PROBLEM. THE RESPONSE TO THE PROBLEM INVARIABLY ENDS UP BEING THE REAL PROBLEM.* ** *Watergate, M Stewart, BR **And: PERCEPTION IS ALL THERE IS! Success … Consult everyone on everything “Thank you” note carpet bombing Source: Roger Rosenblatt, Rules for Aging “The four most important words in any organization ‘What do you think?’ ” are … Source: courtesy Dave Wheeler, posted at tompeters.com, source of original unknown (0609.08) “Buy in”“Ownership”Authorial bragging rights-“Born again” Champion = One Line of Code! People are always ready to tell their story! TP: See also: “The story leaner’s edge” (Steve Farber) “The dream manager” (Matthew Kelly) Thank you , Walter … ??????? “Success doesn’t depend on the number of people you know; it depends on the number of people you know in high places!” or “Success doesn’t depend on the number of people you know; it depends on the number of people you know in low places!” Loser: “He’s such a suck-up!” Winner: “He’s such a suck-down.” C(I) > C(E) Thank you, Henry … “Courtesies of a small and trivial character are the ones which strike deepest in the grateful and appreciating heart.” —Henry Clay Kindness is free 139,380 former patients from 225 hospitals: Press Ganey Assoc: none of THE top 15 factors determining Patient Satisfaction referred to patient’s health outcome PS directly related to Staff Interaction PS directly correlated with Employee Satisfaction Source: Putting Patients First, Susan Frampton, Laura Gilpin, Patrick Charmel “There is a misconception that supportive interactions require more staff or more time and are therefore more costly. Although labor costs are a substantial part of any hospital budget, the interactions themselves add nothing to the budget. Kindness is free. Listening to patients or answering their questions costs nothing. It can be argued that negative interactions—alienating patients, being non-responsive to their needs or limiting their sense of control—can be very costly. … Angry, frustrated or frightened patients may be combative, withdrawn and less cooperative—requiring far more time than it would have taken to interact with them initially in a positive way.” —Putting Patients First, Susan Frampton, Laura Gilpin, Patrick Charmel Thank you to the 3H Club … Howard Hilton Herb Conrad Hilton, at a gala celebrating his life, was asked, “What was the most important lesson you’ve learned in you long and distinguished career?” His immediate answer: “remember to tuck the shower curtain inside the bathtub” “You have to treat your employees like customers.” —Herb Kelleher, upon being asked his “secret to success” Source: Joe Nocera, NYT, “Parting Words of an Airline Pioneer,” on the occasion of Herb Kelleher’s retirement after 37 years at Southwest Airlines (SWA’s pilots union took out a full-page ad in USA Today thanking HK for all he had done; across the way in Dallas American Airlines’ pilots were picketing the Annual Meeting) 3H: Howard, Hilton, Herb **Stay in touch! **Sweat the details! **It’s the people, stupid! Thank you Larry and Jim … Basement Systems Inc. *Basement Systems Inc. *Larry Janesky *Dry Basement Science (115,000!) *1990: $0; 2003: $13M; 2007: $62,000,000 Jim’s Group Jim’s Mowing Canada Jim’s Mowing UK Jim’s Antennas Jim’s Bookkeeping Jim’s Building Maintenance Jim’s Carpet Cleaning Jim’s Car Cleaning Jim’s Computer Services Jim’s Dog Wash Jim’s Driving School Jim’s Fencing Jim’s Floors Jim’s Painting Jim’s Paving Jim’s Pergolas [gazebos] Jim’s Pool Care Jim’s Pressure Cleaning Jim’s Roofing Jim’s Security Doors Jim’s Trees Jim’s Window Cleaning Jim’s Windscreens Note: Download, free, Jim Penman’s book: What Will They Franchise Next? The Story of Jim’s Group Jim’s Group: Jim Penman.* 1984: Jim’s Mowing. 2006: Jim’s Group. 2,600 franchisees (Australia, NZ, UK). Cleaning. Dog washing. Handyman. Fencing. Paving. Pool care. Etc. “People first.” Private. Small staff. Franchisees can leave at will. 0-1 complaint per year is norm; cut bad ones quickly. *Ph.D. cross-cultural anthropology; mowing on the side Source: MT/Management Today (Australia), Jan-Feb 2006 *Lived in same town all adult life *First generation that’s wealthy/ no parental support *“Don’t look like millionaires, don’t dress like millionaires, don’t eat like millionaires, don’t act like millionaires” *“Many of the types of businesses [they] are in could be classified as ‘dullnormal.’ [They] are welding contractors, auctioneers, scrap-metal dealers, lessors of portable toilets, dry cleaners, re-builders of diesel engines, paving contractors …” Source: The Millionaire Next Door, Thomas Stanley & William Danko Thank you, Heather … “Forget China, India and the Internet: Economic Growth Is Driven by Women.” —Headline, Economist, April 15, 2006, Leader, page 14 “AS LEADERS, WOMEN RULE: New Studies find that female managers outshine their male counterparts in almost every measure” TITLE/ Special Report/ BusinessWeek 10 UNASSAILABLE REASONS WOMEN RULE Women make [all] the financial decisions. Women control [all] the wealth. Women [substantially] outlive men. Women start most of the new businesses. Women’s work force participation rates have soared worldwide. Women are closing in on “same pay for same job.” Women are penetrating senior ranks rapidly [even if the pace is slow for the corner office per se]. Women’s leadership strengths are exceptionally well aligned with new organizational effectiveness imperatives. Women are better salespersons than men. Women buy [almost] everything—commercial as well as consumer goods. So what exactly is the point of men? Thank you, John … “This is so simple it sounds stupid, but it is amazing how few oil people really understand that you only find oil if you drill wells. You may think you’re finding it when you’re drawing maps and studying logs, but you have to drill.” Source: The Hunters, by John Masters, Canadian O & G wildcatter “We have a ‘strategic plan.’ It’s called doing things.” — Herb Kelleher “We made mistakes, of course. Most of them were omissions we didn’t think of when we initially wrote the software. We fixed them by doing it over and over, again and again. We do the same today. While our competitors are still sucking their thumbs trying to make the design perfect, we’re already on prototype version #5. By the time our rivals are ready with wires and screws, we are on version #10. It gets back to planning versus acting: We act from day one; others plan how to plan— for months.” —Bloomberg by Bloomberg Culture of Prototyping “Effective prototyping may the most valuable core competence an be innovative organization can hope to have.” —Michael Schrage “Reward excellent failures. Punish mediocre successes.” Phil Daniels, Sydney exec “FAIL, FAIL AGAIN. FAIL BETTER.” —Samuel Beckett “The secret of fast progress is inefficiency, fast and furious and numerous failures.” —Kevin Kelly Thank you, Eleanor, Kevin, Jay and Bill … “Do one thing every day that scares you.” —Eleanor Roosevelt Kevin Roberts’ Credo 1. Ready. Fire! Aim. 2. If it ain’t broke ... Break it! 3. Hire crazies. 4. Ask dumb questions. 5. Pursue failure. 6. Lead, follow ... or get out of the way! 7. Spread confusion. 8. Ditch your office. 9. Read odd stuff. 10. Avoid moderation! “I’m not comfortable unless I’m uncomfortable.” —Jay Chiat "Life is not a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in one pretty and well preserved piece, but to skid across the line broadside, thoroughly used up, worn out, leaking oil, shouting ‘GERONIMO!’ ” —Bill McKenna, professional motorcycle racer (Cycle magazine 02.1982) Good luck …