Transcript Towards Sustainable Universal Access Siven Naidoo Meeting of the Technical Group and the Sherpas of the Secretary-General’s High-level Group On Sustainable Energy for All 18th November.

Towards Sustainable
Universal Access
Siven Naidoo
Meeting of the Technical Group and the Sherpas of
the Secretary-General’s High-level Group On
Sustainable Energy for All
18th November 2011
OFID Headquarters
Vienna, Austria
2015/11/07
1
Overview
• Personal Perspective
– Energy Efficiency 2008,
– Urbanisation and shack-dwellings,
– Poverty and Electropreneurship,
• Energy Access and Climate Resilience
• Energy Access and Adaptation and Mitigation
• South Africa’s IRP 2010 – 2030
• Water
• Electrification
• Conclusions
2
Urbanisation and consequences
3
Energy Access Builds Climate Resilience
 Job creation – directly and indirectly
 SMME development and economic growth
 Air quality improvement – local and indoor –
replacement of coal and wood
 Improvement in Education and skills levels
 Access to modern communications
systems
 Improved security
 Safety – paraffin burns and poisoning
 Health care through lighting, refrigeration,
communications
 The “external” benefits far exceed the
costs
4
Access, mitigation and adaptation – the sustainability nexus
• The negative impacts of Climate
Change will be experienced no
matter how successful mitigation
actions are
• African nations are the most
vulnerable to these impacts
• The improvement of the resilience of
energy systems is essential to
Adaptation
• The development of advanced
infrastructure improves resilience
• Energy access improves resilience
• Adaptation and mitigation are two
sides of the same coin – especially
for Africa
5
Potential Energy Future – 2030!
KENYA
GEO-THERMAL
GABON
The Southern
African
DR CONGO
TANZANIA
Development
Community (SADC)
region offers
SUPER GRID
significant avenues
ANGOLA
for growth and
cleaner sources of
ZAMBIA
power
Significant
demand growth
NAMIBIA
BOTSWANA
and constrained
capacity represent
an investment
SOLAR
opportunity
SWAZILAND
6
Percentage energy mix (system grows from ~42GW to ~
85GW)
2015/1
1/07
7
Percentage of new build – (~43GW new capacity)
2015/1
1/07
8
Specific Challenge: Water
Dry cooling - Kendal and Matimba Power Stations(each 6 x 665 MW)
9
Total water usage is decreasing until 2030, and water-usage intensity is
reduced by ~60%
Water consumption in billion liters p.a.
400
350
300
Base Case
250
Revised Balanced Scenario
Policy-Adjusted IRP
200
2010
2012
1,3 l/kWh
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
0,94 l/kWh
-60%
10
2024
2026
2028
2030
0,52 l/kWh
Water-usage
intensity of PolicyAdjusted IRP
Specific Challenge: Access to Energy
Electrification in South Africa
• Added ~4.5 million households to the grid since 1994 – the
majority using prepayment technology
• Electrification has significantly increased from 1994 to today:
– Nationally from 30% to 83% in Urban areas
– Rural electrification from 12% to 57%
– Limited success with stand alone solar home systems
– Focus on schools and clinics
• Funded initially through the electricity tariff, then from the fiscus
• Protection for the poor through Free Basic Electricity
• Still a significant backlog of 2.5m – 3m households without
access to electricity – cost of $5 – 7bn
11
Conclusions
• Energy Access is a key enabler of sustainable economic growth
and development (noting security of supply, efficient production
and delivery and efficient end-use)
• There are opportunities for Energy Access, adaptation and
mitigation to complement one another
• Major low carbon energy access opportunities exist in Africa
• All of the above strongly justify the use of development, carbon
and adaptation funds to finance key energy access infrastructure.
• Public and private sector funds can be blended and leveraged to
effect sustainable energy access globally
• Specific Eskom and South African experiences, for example, the
Accelerated Electrification Programme, the CFL rollout and the
SWH Programme may have potential to be replicated (perhaps
optimised) and implemented in partnership elsewhere.
12
Message from Sherpa – Dr Steve Lennon
• I think we need to emphasise the need for a national
electrification plan which identifies the status quo, quantifies the
gap to universal access, then details how that gap will be closed.
This must include major infrastructure (ie Tx and Dx) as well as
all supply side options – not just renewables. Then it needs to
include a roll out plan with indicative costs and sources of
funding. For very poor countries a lot of the basic infrastructure –
supply and delivery – will need very soft money – mainly grants.
• The plan also needs to include institutional capacity required –
what, where, who.
• I suggest the team work on a typical template for such a plan
with the objective being for that plan being sufficiently detailed for
it to act as a funding prospectus to DFIs, banks and the private
sector.
13
Thank you
14