Population censuses and surveys as complementary sources of a vital statistical system

László Kajdi Hungarian Central Statistical Office Expert Group Meeting on International Standards for Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Systems, 27-30 June 2011

Reasons for the development of the vital statistics system 2

 Change in legal regulations  Change in technical, IT circumstances  New reuirements of political, social decision makers  Change of international data production demands  Needs of users, professional stakeholders  Changes in social-demographic processes

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Hungarian vital statistics system

Civil registration system:   Livebirths, deaths, including foetal and infant deaths Marriages, registered partnerships, divorces Internal and international migration Legal background: Act on Statistics, decree on the implementation Comprehensive data collection, processing, dissemination Next census in October 2011

4 I. Vital statistics data and indicators based on census data

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Vital statistics by socio-economic status (SES) Fertility analyses Projection of the female population by the number of children Census data on migration Differences between census and projected population

I.1 Vital statistics by SES

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 If census and vital statistics data linked by an identification number: directly  If there is no ID number: census population = denominator  3 main indicators: education, occupation, economic status  Numerator-denominator bias; standards  LFS, HALE

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I.2 Fertility analyses

 Number of children by cohorts, analyses by SES  Sex preferences – level of fertility  Differences by legal and actual marital status  Information on ethnicity  Male fertility

7 I.3 Projection of the female population by the number of children

 Female census population by date of birth, age, number of children as initial data  Tables from the data of annual livebirth and death statistics with the same disaggregation  The projection is based on the biological live birth order  Main purpose: analysis of fertility and childbearing behaviour by cohorts in intercensus years

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I.4 Census data on migration

 Fertility and mortality differences between the immigrating and native population  Census: improve the accuracy of migration data  Mirror statistics: use at other fields too, e.g. births and deaths in foreign countries

9 I.5 Differences between census and projected population

 Is it worth to revise population data and indicators, in what disaggregation  No international standards for the acceptable deviation  No break in time series vs. two data for the same time period, resource need

10 II. Sample surveys as complementary information

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Healthy life expectancy (HLE) Unmet need for contraception Voluntary and involuntary childlessness Realizing childbearing intentions

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II.1 Healthy life expectancy

 Extended life expectancy vs. life quality  Measuring mortality conditions and health status paralell with time spent in good health conditions  Information on health status from repr. surveys, EU-SILC e.g.

 Soft indicator: answers by self-assessment

II.2 Unmet need for contraception

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 Differences between developing and developed countries  Problems: sensitivity, resources  Hungarian experiences  Complementary indicator: induced abortions per hundred live births

13 II.3 Voluntary and involuntary childlessness

 Countries with low fertility, trends of the age of childbearing and marriage  Reasons for childlessness: voluntary, involuntary  Social effects: Low fertility trap, health risk factors, social policy

II.4 Realizing childbearing intentions 14

 Family planning – the use of modern contraceptive methods  Childbearing intentions vs. Actual fertility  Role of sample surveys, social policy  REPRO: 4 countries: Bulgaria, Hungary, Netherlands, Switzerland; 3 categories: intentional parents, postponers, abandoners

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Thank you for your attention!