Transcript ENSEMBLES An Integrated Project under the 6th Framework Programme of the EU Project overview and update for RT4/RT5 meeting, ENS, 10-11 February 2005 Chris Hewitt,

ENSEMBLES
An Integrated Project under the 6th
Framework Programme of the EU
Project overview and update
for RT4/RT5 meeting, ENS, 10-11 February 2005
Chris Hewitt, Met Office Hadley Centre, UK
[email protected]
Outline
 Overview of the ENSEMBLES project (10RTs)
 Achievements to date
 Current, planned activities and latest developments
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The ENSEMBLES Project
 A five year project, up to €15 million funding from EC
 Currently about 66 partners from across EU, Switzerland,
Australia, US
 Ten Research Themes (~300 page DoW)
 Project is being managed by a Management Board
under the terms of a Consortium Agreement
 Follows on from/builds upon FP5 projects (e.g.
DEMETER, PREDICATE, STARDEX)
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Strategic Objectives
 Develop an ensemble prediction system based on the
principal state-of-the-art high resolution, global and
regional Earth System models, validated against quality
controlled, high resolution gridded datasets for Europe, to
produce for the first time, an objective probabalistic
estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal,
decadal and longer timescales
 Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of
physical, chemical, biological and human-related
feedbacks in the Earth System
 Maximise the exploitation of the results by linking the
outputs to a range of applications, including agriculture,
health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance
and risk management
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Overview of Research Themes
RT1 James Murphy, Tim Palmer
 To build and test an ensemble prediction system based on
global Earth System Models for use in the generation of
multi-model simulations of future climate in RT2A.
RT2A Jean-Francois Royer, Guy Brasseur
 To produce sets of climate simulations and provide the
multi-model results needed in other RTs: validation RT5,
understanding processes RT4, as well as providing
boundary conditions and forcing fields for regional model
simulations RT2B.
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Overview of Research Themes
RT3 Jens Christensen, Markku Rummukainen
 To provide improved climate model tools developed in the
context of regional models, first at 50 km, later at 20 km
resolution for specified sub-regions, including provision of a
multi-model based ensemble system for regional climate
prediction for use in RT2B.
RT2B Clare Goodess, Daniela Jacob
 To provide ensemble based regional climate scenarios and
seasonal to decadal hindcasts for use in other RTs:
understanding processes RT4, validation RT5, and impacts
studies RT6.
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Overview of Research Themes (continued)
RT4 Julia Slingo, Herve le Treut
 To advance the understanding of the basic science at the
heart of the ENSEMBLES project, exploiting integrations
performed in RT2A, linking with RT5 on the evaluation of
the ensemble prediction system and feeding back results
to RT1.
RT5 Antonio Navarra, Albert Klein Tank
 To perform a comprehensive and independent evaluation
of the performance of the ensemble prediction system,
including the production of high resolution observational
dataset, and using integrations from RT1, RT2A, RT2B
and RT3.
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Overview of Research Themes (continued)
RT6 Andy Morse, Colin Prentice
 To carry out climate impact assessments, including linking
impact models to ENSEMBLES probabalistic scenarios
produced in RT2A and RT2B, in order to develop risk based
estimates of impacts.
RT7 Richard Tol, Roberto Roson
 To provide scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, land-use
changes and adaptive capacity with and without greenhouse
gas reduction policies, and test the sensitivity of these
scenarios to climate change.
RT8 Martin Beniston, Christos Giannakopolous
 Represents the interface between the ENSEMBLES scientific
consortium and a wider audience that includes scientists,
stakeholders, policymakers and the general public.
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Research Themes
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RT0 Management
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RT0 Management
 Provide overall co-ordination and top-level management for
the project.
 Organise General Assemblies to discuss progress and plans
 ENSEMBLES Management Board meet as often as required
 End of project conference and brochure to showcase the
project’s outcomes
 Coordinate reporting, and comms. between EC and project
 Project Office can be contacted on [email protected]
or look at http://www.ensembles-eu.org
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Achievements to date (Feb 05)
 Project started 1 Sep 04 (the date you can charge costs from)
 Kick-off meeting (13 absent partners) and 1st EMB meeting
 Contract signed and pre-financing distributed
 Project web site http://www.ensembles-eu.org available
along with web sites for RT1, RT2A, RT6, RT8 (RT2B,3 soon)
 Project-wide and RT mailing lists developed.
 Eos overview article published
 1st Newsletter released, 1st ENSEMBLES Workshop arranged.
Please provide RT8 with requested information so they can disseminate
project information and results.
 Links with other projects (e.g. DYNAMITE, 3rd&4th call), and
requests for participation from additional organisations
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Current and planned activities
FOR COMPLETION BY RESEARCH THEME CO-ORDINATORS
1. 6 month reporting
6-month progress report
Period: 1 September 2004 to 28 February 2005
RT9, prepared by Chris Hewitt (METO-HC) on 1 March 2005
Status of milestones and deliverables due in this period:
Number
D9.1
D9.2
M9.1
Date due
Month 1
Month 2
Month 6
Description
Hold first RT meeting
Design system
Prototype system installed
Status
Completed on time.
Completed 1 month late.
Not completed on time.
Expected to be 2 months late
because of [some reason].
Forecast status of milestones and deliverables due in next 6 months:
Number
D9.3
Date due
Month 12
Description
Improve system after user trials
D9.4
Month 12
Final system installed
Forecast Status
Expected to be completed on
time.
Expected to be delivered 2
months late because of
delays with milestone M9.1 .
Summary of achievements this period:
[a few sentences/bullet points]
Summary of anticipated future problems and solutions (if any):
Any issues to be raised with, or advertised to, other RTs:
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[for example] we need such and such from RTy by Jun05.
We will be able to provide such and such to RTz by Aug05.
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For WP leaders
For partners
FOR COMPLETION BY WORK PACKAGE LEADERS
FOR COMPLETION BY PARTNERS FOR EACH RELEVANT WORK PACKAGE
6-month progress report
6-month progress report
Period: 1 September 2004 to 28 February 2005
Period: 1 September 2004 to 28 February 2005
WP9.0, prepared by Chris Hewitt (METO-HC) on 1 March 2005
Prepared by:
Chris Hewitt
Status of milestones and deliverables due in this period:
For partner:
METO-HC
Number
D9.1
In WP:
0.0
Date due
Month 1
Description
Hold first RT meeting
Status
Completed on time.
on:
1 March 2005
Partner’s key personnel in this WP
Forecast status of milestones and deliverables due in next 6 months:
Name
Number
D9.3
Chris Hewitt
Date due
Month 12
Description
Improve system after user trials
Forecast Status
Expected to be completed on
time.
Summary of achievements this period:
A N Other
Email address,
Telephone/Fax
[email protected]
+44-1392-884520 / 885681
[email protected]
+44-1392-884521 / 885681
Partner’s resources used in this period
Person months effort
Approximate total costs
Address
Met Office, Fitzroy Road,
Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB. UK
As above
Funded
1
€3000
Unfunded
1
€3000
Summary of anticipated future problems and solutions (if any):
Summary of achievements this period:
Any issues to be raised with, or advertised to, other WPs/RTs:
e.g. we need such and such from WPx by Jun05.
We will be able to provide such and such to WPy Feb05.
Summary of anticipated future problems and solutions (if any):
Any issues to be raised with, or advertised to, other WPs/RTs:
e.g., we need such and such from WPx by Jun05.
We will be able to provide such and such to WPy Feb05.
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Current and planned activities
1. 6 month reporting (1Sep04 – 28Feb05). RT coordinators will
advise
2. End of year reporting – strongly recommend all partners do
a practise run, particularly for cost statements (but don’t do the
audit certificate)
3. EMB to discuss a timetable for end of year reports
4. Gender committee – volunteers contact me or Clare
Goodess
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Current meeting timetable
 EMB meeting,
23 March, Copenhagen
 Informal meetings at EGU?
24-29 April, Vienna
 Cross-cutting Worksop,
9-11 May, Evora
 RT6 meeting,
June (TBC)
 Joint RT1/RT2A meeting,
13-15 June, Toulouse
 General Assembly,
5-9 September, Athens
 Joint AVEC summer school,
18-30 September, France
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Discussion items
 General Assembly schedule:
• Day 0
Monday
Optional RT/WP meetings
• Day 1
Tuesday
RT meetings
• Day 2-3
Wed-Thu
General Assembly
• Day 4
Fri. a.m.
Management Board
 Interaction with other RTs
 Web sites
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Example of an RT web site
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Questions & Answers
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