INTELLIGENT SUSTAINABILITY: ICT’s Potential Contribution

STEPHEN HARPER GLOBAL DIRECTOR ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT POLICY MAY 2011

You Need to Have a Smart Society To Have a Sustainable Society

If consumption trends continue, we will need two Earths to support us Smart behaviors get us here Source: Global Footprint Network

Technology and Carbon Emissions

Drive Computing to Be More Energy Efficient

~2% Opportunity

Use Computing to Improve Energy Savings Outside Information and Communications Technology

98% = The Big Opportunity

Aggregate Demand for Computing Accelerating

80x10 18 70x10 18 60x10 18 50x10 18 40x10 18 30x10 18

Transistors Shipped Per Year

2000-2010: 68% CAGR 20x10 18 10x10 18 0

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

74.5 Quintillion

transistors shipped in 2010 OR

10 Billion

transistors per person on earth Source: Intel/WSTS 4

Compared to the First Billion PCs Installed The Next Connected 2 Billion PCs Will…

…consume half the energy of 1st billion PCs …deliver 17x the computational capacity 1Billion PCs Energy 320 TeraWatt-hr Compute Capacity

2007 1 Billion PCs Installed Base

Source: Intel Microprocessor Marketing and Business Planning, and Intel iAG/PCCA Power Initiative team, PBCA-PPM Compute Capacity To Build Smarter Societies 2 Billion PCs ½ Energy 17x Compute Capacity 151 TeraWatt-hr

2014 2 Billion PCs Installed Base

The Micro Story at the Microprocessor Level

1978 2008 Energy efficiency Improvement Automobiles Passenger Airlines Agriculture 14.3 miles per gallon of gas 22.8 revenue passenger miles per gallon 0.63 units of output per unit of energy use 20.0 miles per gallon of gas 50.4 revenue passenger miles per gallon 1.46 units of output per unit of energy use 40 percent 121 percent 132 percent Steel Manufacturin g 6 3 pounds of steel per MBtu 167 pounds of steel per MBtu 167 percent Lighting Computer Systems Incandescent light bulb— 13 lumens per watt 1,400 instructions per second per watt Compact flourescent bulb— 57 lumens per watt 40,000,000 Instructions per second per watt 339 percent 2,857000 percent

6 Source: “A Smarter Shade of Green,” ACEEE Report for the Technology CEO Council, 2008.

The Micro Story at the System Level

Estimated Annual Energy Consumption

1200

1015

1000

938

800

655

600 Going Mobile 400

229

200 0 >17x Reduction

59

Unmanaged Pentium ® Dual Processor 945 with CRT display Unmanaged Pentium ® Dual Processor 945 with LCD display Unmanaged Core™2 Duo Processor E6550 with LCD display Managed Core™2 Duo Processor E6550 with LCD display Managed Core™2 Duo Processor T7700 mobile platform For system configuration details, please see Appendix on page 49.

Performance tests/ratings are provided assuming specific computer systems and/or components and reflect the approximate performance of Intel products as measured by those tests. Any difference in system hardware or software design or configuration may affect actual performance. This data may vary from other material generated for specific marketing requests.

Technology and Carbon Emissions

Drive Computing to Be More Energy Efficient

~2% Opportunity – the “micro story”

Use Computing to Improve Energy Savings Outside Information and Communications Technology

98% = The Big Opportunity The “macro story”

“Macro Story” Evidence

 American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) studied this issue and concluded: – ICT seen as a major factor in improving energy efficiency of US economy during the Internet era – “For every extra Kwh of electricity that has been demanded by ICT, the US economy increased its overall energy savings by a factor of about 10…” (2008)  The Climate Group and the “Global e-Sustainability Initiative” published a report entitled, “

Smart 2020: Enabling the Low Carbon Economy in the Information Age

” (2008), concluding: – Smart 2020 concludes that ICT strategies could reduce

up to 15% percent

baseline of global emissions in 2020 against a “business as usual”  US Addendum to Group indicates that ICT strategies could reduce US carbon emissions by

Smart 2020

report, prepared by Boston Consulting

up to 22 percent

by 2020 vs. business-as-usual 

TAKE AWAY

: ICT strategies offer huge potential for addressing climate challenge BUT there is a huge gap between actual performance (ACEEE) and potential (Smart 2020)

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Macro Story – Increasing the EE of Other Sectors

Automation Substitution De-Materialization Industrial Robots Logistics for Transportation LEED Certified Buildings Smart Motors Smart Power Delivery Video Conferencing Online Entertainment e-Commerce Paperless Office Converting Atoms to Bits On-line Banking Digital Media Content 10

The “Cloud” as an Energy Efficiency Driver

 The Data Center and the network is at the center of the “macro story”  The Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) commissioned Verdantix to examine the impact of a broad US roll-out of Cloud Computing, based on extrapolation from existing case studies: – Huge CO2 emissions reductions – Huge financial savings – Strong positive financial ROI – Indirect benefits from increased business process efficiencies and organizational flexibility SOURCE: The Carbon Disclosure Project/Verdantix: Cloud Computing: The IT Solution for the 21 st Century

Closing the Actual-to-Potential Gap Requires Smart Public Policies

 The full potential of ICT NOT realized due to a variety

of market failures:

– Lack of information re potential of various technologies – “Principal/agent” issues – High upfront costs – Perceived small size of individual savings  These failures can only be overcome through smart policies, including: – Developing a National Strategy or “Roadmap” to guide policy direction – Lead by example – Federal/state governments are the biggest landowners, employers, vehicle fleet operators, etc.

– Broadband, broadband, broadband – Establish incentives and rewards for investments in EE ICT

12 12

A Few Words About Broadband

 The International Telecommunications Union’s (ITU) Broadband Commission recently released its report,

“The Broadband Bridge: Linking ICT with Climate Action for a Low Carbon Economy”

 This report highlights the central role of more and faster broadband to realizing the promise of “Green

by

IT” or the “macro story”: – Climate mitigation via transformational changes in the economy via the dematerialization of physical products and systems (travel substitution and e-products and services) as well as smarter buildings, transport and systems – Climate adaptation via enabling more and better climate modeling, weather information and disaster-response capabilities

Water Utility Infrastructure

 Leaks, drips and theft cost global water utilities ~$14B per year  Utilities want “neural networks for water” sensors, networks, controllers, models, applications & visualization  Holy grail for water quality monitoring is general-purpose, in situ, real-time sensing

EMBEDDED DEVICES SERVERS AND SOFTWARE APPLICATIONS

Sensors/ Controllers Use and quality data Leak detection Modeling & Analytics Visualization Remote control Metering/ Billing Operations/ Maintenance Planning

WaterMatch

15 Industrial and Municipal Users log in by providing brief information Public can search for WWTPs by location and distance

Large-scale participatory simulation of the Chesapeake Bay watershed as complex system Players take roles of key stakeholders, such as farmers, developers, watermen, and policy-makers; make decisions based on real-world data; and see the impact of these decisions on each other and the watershed over a twenty-year period Developed by multi-disciplinary faculty and student team; hailed by federal and state agency, private sector, NGO, and education leaders as the “first of its kind” Innovative tool for multi-sector stakeholder engagement, capacity building for the collaborative governance of natural resources, and the testing of new policies, products, and services Now completing Bay Game Global, a generalizable platform for global watershed simulation www.uvabaygame.org

Digital Energy and Sustainability Solutions Campaign (DESSC)

 DESSC is: – Coalition of industry, research organizations, NGOs – Advance policies to drive sustainable growth through ICT enabled energy efficiency and clean energy innovation  DESSC affiliates or partners in: – DESC US – DESC China – EU (ICT4EE Forum) – DESC India – Japan (Green IT Promotion Council)  Established great website as macro story portal: – http://www.digitalenergysolutions.org/

17

DESSC-US Partners

*ITI serves as the host organization for DESC

DESC China Partners

19

DESC China report “ICT Promoting China Low Carbon Development” Promotion

• Share with government agencies, MIIT, NDRC, AQSIQ and others; • Promotion campaign with publishing on about 270 websites; • Listed Top in Google and Baidu with searching word as “ICT” and “Low Carbon”; • Good feedback from multi channel.

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UN Sustainable Energy for All

 In 2011, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon launched a new initiative,

Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All)

achieve 3 major targets by 2030: – Achieving universal access to modern energy services – Doubling energy efficiency – Doubling energy efficiency , which will engage governments, private sector, and civil society to – Doubling the share of global energy generated from renewable sources  SE4All features a heavy emphasis on private sector engagement and partnerships across sectors and across governments/civil society  UN developing ‘best practices’ guidance for different industry sectors – ICT guidance focuses heavily on implementing Green by ICT and the macro story

Intel Sustainable & Connected Cities Institute

The Concept: driving the computing continuum and inventing the city of the future The World-Class Research Universities: UCL & UCI The Testbed: London The Opportunity

   

Create sustainable future city vision City of London offering test bed access Two world-class universities joining forces to lead the initiative Partnership with other fellow travellers Intel Confidential

ISCCI Application Areas

1.

Compute Continuum & Ubiquitous Information Access 2.

a.

b.

c.

d.

Asset management

Utilities (Energy, Water, Sewage) Transport Services (Police, Fire, Ambulance) Environment

3.

Intelligent Buildings and Urban Spaces 4.

Community Wellbeing 5.

City Security and Disaster Response