Confronting the Regional Land Use and Transportation Challenge: The D.C. Perspective

Presentation to COG TPB CAC June 9, 2005

Overview

• • • • • • DC’s changing role in the region Where we are today Where we are headed Why the COG forecasts concern the District Other approaches and ideas The Comp Plan as a vehicle for guiding change

DC’s Changing Role

District Region Land Area Population 67 570,000 3,020 4,900,000

50 Years of Regional Expansion

District 46% Region 54%

Population Share 1950

District 12% Region 88%

2000

50 Years of Regional Expansion

District 82%

Employment Share 1950

Region 18% District 24% Region 76%

2000

Dynamics of Population Change

900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0

802,178

DC Population, 1950-2000 1950 1960 1970

572,059

1980 1990 2000

DC has the same number of households today as it had in 1960, but with 200,000 fewer residents 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000

• • • •

3 2.5

2 1.5

1 0.5

0 2.72

2.16

1970 1980

Households

1990 2000 1970 1980 1990

Household Size Household size has declined consistently since 1960 Between 1980 and 2000, number of households dropped by 4,800 but number of residents dropped by 66,000 Small households in, large households out Today, 44% of all DC households are single people

2000

Change has Been Uneven

Population Change, 1980-2000 Clusters that lost population Clusters that lost > 15 percent of their residents

Change has Been Uneven

People M oving Into the Washington Region Between 1995 and 2000

250000 Balance of Region DC 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 M ar rie d M w /k ar id rie s O d th no k er id fa O s m ily th w er /k fa id m s ily n o ki ds N on fa m ily 0-1 9 20 -2 4 25 -2 9 30 -3 9 40 -4 9 50 -6 5 65 pl us

Change has Been Uneven

By 2000, poverty became more concentrated in DC than it was in 1990---counter to national trends.

-10 -15 Change in concentrated poverty rate, 1990-2000 -20 -25 -30 10 5 0 -5

Change has Been Uneven

education income employment

Growing More Inclusively

• • • Creating Successful Neighborhoods Increasing Access to Education and Employment Connecting the City

The Transportation Benefits of a Strong Center

• 37% of DC households don’t own a car • 38% use public transit to get to work (2 nd in nation, after NYC) • 12% walk to work (2 nd in nation, after Boston) • Average journey to work is 29.7 minutes • 70% of those traveling to Metro walk to the station; 15% use the bus • Urban land use pattern is efficient from a transportation perspective

Facing the Future: Why DC Must Grow

    Fiscal Imbalance: • 53 percent of the city’s land area is non-taxable • 2/3 of the income earned in the city is exempt from local income taxes Regional environmental benefits associated with maintaining a strong center Growth provides critical mass for additional retail and other services Unmet housing needs and affordability issues But… • Emphasis is on retaining existing residents • Attract/retain families as well as singles/couples • Don’t compromise neighborhood character or overburden infrastructure

Facing the Future: DC’s Forecasts

Population Households Jobs

2005

577.5

252.0

742.9

2010

608.7

265.3

783.6

2015

642.0

280.7

816.7

2020

672.6

292.9

2025

702.4

304.4

830.0

845.0

2030

712.2

308.9

860.0

(in thousands)

Trouble with the Regional Forecasts

• • • Inner ring counties approach housing “buildout” around 2020 but keep adding jobs through 2030 Overall, jobs grow at 3 times the rate of households between 2020-2030 Examples: • Fairfax County projects an additional 72,000 jobs during the • • 2020s, but only 2,800 more households.

Montgomery County projects 55,000 more jobs during the 2020s, but only 15,000 more households.

Prince Georges County projects 88,000 more jobs during this period, and only 23,000 households.

Trouble with the Regional Forecasts

Shortfall of as many as 487,000 housing units projected by COG is unacceptable to the District. Would result in: • Traffic congestion • • • • Urban sprawl and open space loss Environmental impacts, especially air/water quality Affordable housing Central City decline

Forecasts provide an opportunity for a regional dialogue on key issues

Other Approaches and Ideas

• • • • DC is relatively small and reached buildout in 1950, yet we have identified the capacity for 60,000 new units For five decades, all growth has occurred through infill and redevelopment This is about the same number of units to be added by PG County (485 Sq Mi), Montgomery County (496 Sq Mi), or Fairfax County (396 Sq Mi) between 2005-2030 How can built out jurisdictions accommodate more households?

Home Again

• • Restores vacant and abandoned units # of vacant and abandoned units in DC has declined from 6,500 in 1999 to 1,650 today

New Neighborhoods

• • Ten “underdeveloped” sites with the capacity for 16,000 new units Hope VI replaces public housing with mixed income

New Communities

• • • • • Targets crime “hot spots” and at-risk public housing Provides 1:1 replacement of subsidized housing units, while adding market rate units Creates mixed income neighborhoods Five pilot sites identified, with potential to expand Total 3,000-5,000 new units in first five years

Great Streets

• Focuses development along corridors, coupled with investment in streetscape, transportation, economic incentives

The “Living” Downtown

• More than 5,000 units to be added, primarily in the Mt Vernon Triangle and NY/ NOMA areas

Promoting Infill

About 600 acres of vacant land Potential for 11,000 additional units under current zoning

Vacant Land by Zoning Federal 13% Industrial 7% Commercial 5% Residential 75%

Strategic Redevelopment

• • At least 10,000 units of additional capacity exists on commercially zoned land with improvement value well below land value Much of this land is around Metro stations, and along key corridors

Guiding Change: DC’s Comp Plan

General Provisions 10 Citywide Elements Ward Plans Did you know that…

The existing Comprehensive Plan document is 664 pages long and contains no tables, maps, or graphics

• Economic Development • Housing • Environmental Protection • Transportation • Public Facilities • Urban Design • Preservation and Historic

Features

• Downtown • Human Services • Land Use

Guiding Change: DC’s Comp Plan

November 2003:

More than 3,000 participants attended Citizen Summit III

February 2004:

More than 2,000 residents participated in eight Ward Summits

Guiding Change: DC’s Comp Plan

– Collect and analyze baseline data – Resolve Plan format and structure issues – Complete Policy Audit – Formulate revised policies and actions – Revise the Land Use Map – Assess Plan impacts – Prepare Draft Plan (1/06) – Adoption (6/06)

Guiding Change: DC’s Comp Plan

Website: www.inclusivecity.org

28-member Citizens Task Force Citywide public workshops (Jan 2005, Sep 2005, Jan 2006) ANC briefings/ direct outreach to ANCs Outreach to interest groups, citizen/civic associations Press releases/ media liaison Interagency Working Group Small Group Discussions Public hearings

Guiding Change: DC’s Comp Plan

New format, easier to read and navigate Graphics and maps to be incorporated New “elements” to be added (parks, arts, etc.) Goals, policies, and actions to be more clearly defined Accountability and implementation to be vastly improved Emphasis on long-range planning—not operations Three Vision “themes” to be interwoven

Ideas for Other Jurisdictions

• Take stock of underutilized land • Focus on commercial and industrially zoned areas • Consider rezoning employment-generating land to housing • Public education and outreach regarding the issues at hand

Questions?

[email protected]

[email protected]

442-7630 442-8708