Oregon Forest Futures Global to Local Choices and Consequences Hal Salwasser College of Forestry Oregon State University July 21, 2004 Institute for Journalism and Natural Resources Oregon Caves,
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Transcript Oregon Forest Futures Global to Local Choices and Consequences Hal Salwasser College of Forestry Oregon State University July 21, 2004 Institute for Journalism and Natural Resources Oregon Caves,
Oregon Forest Futures
Global to Local Choices and
Consequences
Hal Salwasser
College of Forestry
Oregon State University
July 21, 2004
Institute for Journalism and Natural Resources
Oregon Caves, OR
What We’ll Cover
Oregon forests in a global context
Sustainability and forests
Different roles for different forests
The work ahead
Four Themes:
Global forces and linkages impact local
forest decision making
Social and economic conditions are both
enablers of and barriers to choice
Equity is an emergent goal
Adaptation to dynamics in sustainability
ideals, markets and ecosystems is
key to survival and success
Global Forces
Population growth
Political instability
Trade costs
Restructuring in forest products industry
Widening rich-poor gap
Raising of “green” consciousness
Rising consumption
Global climate change
Non-native invasive species
Population Growth
6 Bil. in 2000
8-9 Bil by 2050
More demand for every forest resource
Intensified wood production
More pressure on natural forests
Growth in temperate forests; depletion
in tropical forests
Potential overexploitation of boreal
forests
Political Instability
Emerging democracies
Tribalism
Terrorism and the war on civilization
Corruption, illegal logging
China and India emerging powers
Oregon budgets and ballot measures
Severe social fragmentation over public
forest values and purposes
Trade Costs
Assuming global wood supply will meet
all future needs is not sound:
Market inequities, barriers
Fuel prices
Value of US dollar
Shipping security
Where you sit in the transport queue –
highest value products go first
Widening Gulf Between
Rich and Poor
Deforestation in tropics, developing
nations
Poverty – even pockets in rich nations
Unstable developing economies
International strife, war over access to
resources
Urban-rural divide
Changes in Forest
Products Industries
Globally competitive markets
Planted forests for wood, fiber (62% in Asia)
Partnerships in developing countries
Transnational capital flow
Increased utilization efficiency
Dominance of globally integrated companies
Disintegration of forestlands from mills
Growing Environmental
Awareness
Broader concept of “the environment”
“Green” as a marketing asset
Certification gaining ground
Allure and illusion of reserves
Affluence, power create the tensions:
Enable consumption, imports, pollution
Enable concern for environment
Rising Demand for Forest
Products, Values
High consumption in First World
Rising consumption in developing
regions
Wood is part of solution to energy drain
Rising demand for water, recreation
Forests for biodiversity, climate change
Global Climate Change
Forests are carbon scrubbers, sinks
Wood is an alternative to fuel-intensive
building materials
Potential impacts of carbon credit
markets on forest values
Impacts on growing zones, productivity,
vulnerabilities to invasives
Non-native Invasive
Species
Plant impacts on native species
competitive advantage, fuels
Insect, pathogen impacts on native species
Constraints on trade
Impacts on management costs
Global Forest Context
Forest area: ~ 9.6 bil ac; 50-66% of 1600 ce
Forest loss: ~ 23 mil ac/yr in 1990s
Population + economic growth = forest loss, but not always
- 30 mil ac/yr tropics, + 7 mil ac/yr non-tropics
Demands for forest benefits ever growing
Water quality, quantity
Wood use (+ 0.3 to 0.5%/yr)
Biodiversity conservation
Carbon storage
Recreation, subsistence, cultural uses
Global & U.S. Wood Use
Ind. wood use rose 40% since 1960: ~ 1.58 BCM in 2000
Fuel wood use > industrial wood use: ~ 1.78 BCM in 2000
Ind. wood use could increase 33% by 2050: ~ 2 BCM
~ 80% of global wood and fiber will come from planted
forests by mid century or earlier
~ 33% of industrial wood used worldwide crosses an
international boundary from tree to product
US imports 27% of sawnwood products consumed;
exports associated jobs & impacts
US uses 27% of world’s industrial wood; largest per capita
US forest and wood choices drive global wood market
UN FAO 2003: 2000 data
US in Global Context
4.7
People
Land
7
Forest Land
5.8
20
NA IUCN Protected Forest
Plantations
8.7
8
Wood Volume
Ind. Wood Produced
28
Ind. Wood Used
27
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Percent of World Share (UN FAO 2003: 2000 data)
On to Our 2nd Topic
Forests in a Global Context
Sustainability and forests
Different roles for different forests
The work ahead
Where did this Big Word
Come From?
Sustained yield – forestry, fisheries, wildlife: late
1800s
Sustainable development
Brundtland Commission 1987
Earth Summit 1992
Agenda 21, Chapter 11
Montreal Process, Santiago Declaration
PCSD, Exec. Order, SFM Roundtable
SFM Certification/Licensing Systems 1990s
Forest Program for Oregon 2000
What Does it Mean?
Latin: sus = up; tenere = to hold
The ability to:
Hold up
Support, supply with sustenance
Keep in existence, prolong
Persevere, endure, withstand
Use without degrading
Sustainability of What?
Natural Resources?
Economies?
Institutions?
Ecosystems?
Communities?
Human Well Being?
All of the Above
Applied to Forests
Forest resources across the landscape are used,
developed and protected at a rate and in a
manner that enables people to meet their current
environmental, economic and social needs, and
also provides that future generations can meet
their own needs (ORS 184.421).
Montreal Process Criteria
Biodiversity
Productive capacity
Ecosystem health
Soil and water conservation
Global carbon storage, cycle
Socio-economic benefits
Legal, institutional, economic policies
Other approaches to SFM –
ATFS, MUSY, FPFO, SFI, FSC, CSA, ISO,
ITTO, Tarapoto, Helsinki:
Criteria, standards, objectives, principles
and indicators for all are
working hypotheses;
being tested and refined through use; the
dust has definitely not settled yet.
SFM Issues
Who makes the rules, sets the targets?
Mixed ownership landscapes
Changing ownerships, fragmentation
Compensation for public benefits
Consistency in standards, reciprocity
Scientific basis for standards -- NCSSF
Tailoring for regional variation, purposes
Elitism, dueling systems
Dealing with consumption
US is NOT a Global Model
U.S. is not on a path that others can follow and be
globally sustainable;
Preserve our resources, use the resources of
others’, high use of non-renewables;
Must alter our course and “close the loop” on
production and consumption of resources for
quality of life.
What makes us think we can do it for
forests?
Learning from the Past
To chart a path to the future …
What We Know About
Forests
Complex, dynamic ecosystems: time and space
Management/conservation driven by demands
Demand for wood & all other forest values continues
to grow
Must yield value to stay forested, if private
Local choices can have global transfer effects
Forestry, technology and conservation can and have
restored and enhanced forests, their products and
uses, e.g., America’s Tree Farms, America’s
family forests, Tillamook State Forest, Green
Mountain NF, engineered wood products
Oregon Forests
State
Federal
Tribal
Private
Water
Oregon Forests
Forests are one of Oregon’s greatest natural assets
~ 46% of Oregon’s land is forest: 28 mil ac., among most
productive in world, all managed for water quality, ~ 90%
of original forest, ~1% net loss in recent decades
~ 57% federal (NFS, BLM, NPS)
Most currently reserved from timber harvest or managed for
recreation and natural values as primary purpose (> 80%
Cascades & west; 20-50% central & eastern OR)
~ 43% non-federal
21% industry, 16% family, 3% state, ~ 3% tribal, county, municipal
90+% of state’s timber harvest from these lands; ~10% from state
Historical Context
Forest sector’s economic role has changed
Forest products major factors in Oregon economy and
community life from late 1800s to early 1980s
Employment in forest sector fell during 1980s to early
1990s, stable since mid 1990s
Recession early 80s, retooling 80s-90s, supply loss early 90s
Economic challenges most severe in rural communities
Land available for harvest reduced dramatically 1990s
Timber harvest on private lands ~ stable since 1990
Most forest sector jobs now derive from private lands
Historical Context …
Public perceptions on economic and community
roles of forest sector ever changing
1980s-1990s: conflict over forests, environmental
concerns produced:
Old-growth protection in federal forests (5.3 million ac)
Economic hardship for rural communities, economies
Increased regulatory and legal costs for wood producers
Gridlock and excessive costs on federal forestlands
False perceptions of forest resources in Oregon’s future
2004: Oregonians want balance, end to conflict
strategy, forests managed for economic, social, and
environmental benefits, i.e., sustainability’s “triple
bottom line”
Wood from Oregon Forests
Timber harvest: ~ 3.9 BBF in 2002
~ 5% of US softwood harvest
Superior quality wood due to species, growing
conditions, milling and manufacturing processes
Sustainable harvest potentials
1977-1989: 5.6 – 8.6 BBF/yr
OSU 1997 study long term sustainable: 7.5 BBF/yr
1998 – 2002 (after NWFP + other restrictions): 3.4 – 4.1
BBF/yr
If total ban on federal harvest: 3.5 - 4 BBF/yr ??
If HFRA + federal second growth available: > 5 BBF ??
Forest Sector in Economy
Primary, Secondary, Services
$12.6 billion total industrial output (TIO);
6.3% of State TIO
85,600 direct jobs; 4% of State total
$3.5 billion wages; ave wage = $40,525;
State ave. wage = $34,840
Forest recreation/tourism
$2.4 billion TIO; 37,900 jobs
Hovee 2004
Benefits Beyond Wood
Water: from all forests
Energy: wood as fuel, wood as low energy
material, urban trees for energy conservation
Recreation: especially from public forests
Carbon stores: in the forest and in wood products
Biodiversity: reservoirs and sources
Minerals: domestic sources, reserves
Ecosystem services: mitigate global change
Let’s Talk About Roles
Forests in a Global Context
Sustainability and forests
Different roles for different forests
The work ahead
The “Whole Forest” View
All Forests: from urban forests and tree farms to
wilderness and parks
All Forest Products: from wood and water to wild
things and wild places
All Forest Practices: from preservation and
protection to restoration and production
All Forest Uses: from recreation and learning to jobs
and subsistence
All Forest Values: from carbon stores and jobs to
sources of life and inspiration
Breadth of Sustainable
Forest Management
Sustainable forest management
varies by forest type,
ownership, primary purpose
Forest purposes:
Wood and fiber production
Multiple resource values/uses
Reserves, nature preservation
Urban and community forests
Wood Production Forests
Most of world’s future wood will
come from planted forests:
~ 33% now, ~ 80% by 2050,
from ~ 10-20% of global forest area
Primary purposes:
Grow trees for wood, fiber
Increase forest value to owner
Management challenges:
Thrive in global markets
Increase wood yield: < 2X over natural
Reduce environmental impacts
Improve wood quality, consistency
Produce high return on investment
Maintain social license to operate
Most Productive Forest
Lands in US
… are in the hands of 9-10,000,000
family, tribal, and industrial private sector
forest stewards!
Site Class by Ownership
Million Acres by Site Class in U.S.
(annual growth in cu ft/ac)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1 = >120
2 = 85-120
3 = 50-85
4 = 20-50
5 = 0-20
National Other Forest Family
Forest Public Industry Forests
Source: Powell et al. (1993) Tables 5 and 6
Multi-resource Forests
Most of the world’s accessible forests
have multiple resource purposes
< 40% of global forest area?
Primary purposes:
Meet diverse landowner objectives
Increase forest value to owner(s)
Challenges:
Optimize multi-resource outcomes
Produce multiple benefits for acceptable
costs
Differentiate products
Finance non-market benefits
Reserve Forests
Parks, wilderness, natural areas:
12.4% worldwide in 2000
< 40-50% of global forest area?
Primary purposes:
Sustain at-risk species, natural
processes, “wild” ecosystems
Recreation, cultural uses
Management challenges:
Minimize human use impacts
Restore, promote wildness, naturalness
Ameliorate effects of invasive species,
air pollution
Achieve goals for least costs
Urban, Community
Forests
Where 80% of the people live
Primary purposes:
Attractive communities, neighborhoods
Conserve resources: water, energy
Increase property values
Backyard wildlife habitats
Management challenges:
Safety, infrastructure impacts
Minimize sprawl and resource use
Minimize invasive species escapes
Reserve Forests: Mostly
federal, some state, tribal,
private
Wood Production
Forests: Mostly
industry, family,
some state, tribal
Forest
Sustainability
Environmental Benefits
Urban, Community
Forests: Forests where
people live
Multi-resource
Forests: Mostly state,
tribal, some family,
some federal
Ownership Matters
Multi-resource
Wood Production
Reserve
Industry, TIMO
*
*
Private, large
Family, ENGO
Tribes
State
Federal
*
Streamside zones, leave trees, HECV = mini or micro reserves
Oregon’s Current Balance
Oregon Forest Area by Primary Purpose
Wood
Production
36%
Reserve
31%
Multi-resource*
33%
* This includes 2.5 million acres of federal matrix and AMAs which currently are not fully
serving their designated purpose
Let’s Talk About the Future
Forests in a Global Context
Sustainability and forests
Different roles for different forests
The work ahead
SFM Challenges
Keep forest lands in forest uses for forest values
Use and shape global forces to influence future
Meet people’s forest resource needs
Improve management and conservation
Invest in new knowledge and technologies:
New sciences and products for sustainability
Enhance lifelong learning and extended education
Develop incentives for sustainable production and
conservation … AND
Address Demand -Consumption Ethics
Intelligent consumption and production of
renewable natural resources is key to sustaining
quality of life;
Overuse or poor choices degrade ecosystems,
transfer effects;
Prudent choices consider others, the future, and
the entire life cycle of resources.
Building a Future from
Past Success
Oregon has a solid foundation for natural
resource sustainability
Land-use dedications: federal and state forests,
parks, wildlife refuges; nature reserves; wood
production zones
Diverse ownerships = diverse outcomes
Globally competitive industry
State land-use laws limit forest, ag-land loss
State & federal laws protect forest, water, air, wildlife
Building from Success …
State forestry strategic plan (FPFO)
World-class forestry education, research and
extension (OSU CoF-FRL, FS PNWRS, USGS, EPA)
Private-public partnerships (Oregon Plan)
Public forestry education programs (OFRI)
Growing sustainability ethic, incentives
Access to major markets
Returns on Investments
Highest quality water in Oregon from forestlands
Fish habitat restoration well underway
Successful reforestation following harvest
Wood growth exceeds harvest
Sustainable contributions to Oregon’s economic,
social and environmental goals
Public support for “balanced” management
Gaps Remain
Conserving habitats of exceptional conservation
value – heritage resources
Reducing costs and gridlock on federal lands
Bringing non-wood resources into “markets” –
carbon, biodiversity, recreation
Shifting policy from static to dynamic views of
nature
Learning from the “grand experiments”
We Have Options,
Choices to Make
What is most appropriate for forests in different places
at different times for overall sustainability?
How do we blend different roles at watershed,
landscape, regional scales – minimize transfer
effects?
How do we meet people’s resource needs efficiently,
with desired outcomes for “triple bottom line”?
How can knowledge and technology improve our
choices for forests and products?
How can we improve decisions, position for change,
build social capacity, improve governance?
What Choice Here?
Western forests are adding wood at ~ 1% per year; compounds like interest
Mortality
0.07
Removals
0.09
Growth
0.2
Inventory
10.3
0
2
4
6
8
Billion Cubic Meters (BCM)
USFS 1996 FIA data
10
12
CoF Research Focus
Harvest practices
Fire, pests, forest health
Productivity practices
Roads
Diversity practices
Water, fish, wildlife
New wood products
Recreation, tourism
Non-wood uses
Policy and economics
Forests and climate
Communications
Urban-forest interface
Risk assessment
Tree genomics, biotech Adaptive problem solving
Beware of Simple, Static,
Extreme Ideologies
The Real World is:
Complex, ambiguous, uncertain, and full of
unknowns, surprises, and change.
Living Together Successfully in the Real World
Requires:
Compromise, competition, reasoned judgment,
innovation, sharing, and continual adaptation.
Divisive Ideologies
Markets
Know
Best
Nature
Knows
Best
Govt.
Knows
Best
Community Engagement
Science
Knows
Best
I Know Best
Locals
Know
Best
The Law Is Clear
Constructive Views
Markets
Are a
Means
Science
Informs
Choices
Learn
From
Nature
Govt.
Sets
Standards
Community Engagement
I’ve Got
Some Ideas
Laws Give
Direction
Locals
Know
A Lot
Four Themes:
Global forces and linkages impact forest
decision making
Social and economic conditions are both
enablers of and barriers to choice
Equity is an emergent goal
Adaptation to dynamics in sustainability
ideals, markets and ecosystems is
key to survival and success
Learn & Work Together
We are shaping the sustainability of forests,
economies, and communities in Oregon,
America, and the world with every choice we
make.