Transcript Adapting Florida’s Affordable Housing Needs Assessment Methodology to Developing Countries: the Case of Brazil Joseli Macedo William J.

Adapting Florida’s Affordable Housing
Needs Assessment Methodology to
Developing Countries: the Case of Brazil
Joseli Macedo
William J. O’Dell
Marc T. Smith
University of Florida
Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing
Basic Dimensions of Original Model
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Demand
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tenure
age of head of
household
size of household
income of household
cost burden
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Supply
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
housing inventory
seasonal occupancy
vacancies
Original Methodology
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Population Projections
and Headship Rates
Population by Age (two
decennial Census)
Population Projections by
Age
Number of Householders
by Age and Tenure
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Cross-tabulations
income of household
size of household
cost burden
Adaptation Process
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definition of land and house tenure
definition of adequate shelter, adequate
infrastructure
definition of family
Concepts affecting adaptation
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informality vs.
formality
adequacy of shelter
standard and
substandard
conditions
tenure as a measure
of security
Demand Data . Brazil Model
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population projections
household formation
rates
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
tenure
age of head of
household
size of
household
income of
household
Tenure Typology
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Brazilian Census
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Premises
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land ownership: 3
housing unit: 6
settlement type: 50+
infrastructure: sewer
and indoor plumbing
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lack of land title does
not constitute a
housing need
no-cash renters
others & improvised
= substandard
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Tenure Typology
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Florida Model
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Brazil Model
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owners
renters
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owners standard
owners substandard
renters standard
renters substandard
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Age of Head of Household
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Age Groups
15 – 24 years old
25 – 34 years old
35 – 44 years old
45 – 54 years old
55 – 64 years old
over 65 years old
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cultural differences
“late-stayers”
Household Typology
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Brazilian Census
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Definitions
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family
household
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extended family
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multiple families
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choice vs. need
secondary families
Household Typology
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Size of household
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Premises
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one to two persons
three persons
four persons
five or more persons
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very few one-person
households
shared households
overcrowding
constitutes a housing
need
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Income
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Florida Model
jurisdiction medians
Brazil Model
monthly minimum
wage (m.m.w.)
housing programs
low-income majority
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Income categories
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less than 1 m.m.w.
1 to 1.99 m.m.w.
2 to 2.99 m.m.w.
3 to 5.99 m.m.w.
6 to 11.99 m.m.w.
over 12 m.m.w.
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Supply Data
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housing inventory
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occupied dwellings
seasonal units
vacant units
unqualified data
group quarters
Needs Assessment
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needed to accommodate projected number of
families
total number of dwelling units:
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distributed by type, tenure and rent value,
according to family income
Brazil Model . Projections
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Population
projections
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Household
Projections
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2000: 170 million
2010: 190 million
2020: 211 million

45 million households
(2000 Census)
47 million households
(“spin-offs”)
70 million households
by 2020
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Brazil Model . Housing Profile
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2000 housing stock:
51.6 million units
74% owners
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26% renters
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52% standard
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55% standard
33% of households
with 5 + persons
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7% of householders
under 25 years old
25% between 35 - 44
13% older than 65
46% of households
earn less than 3 m.m.w.
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12% less than 1 m.m.w.
Observations
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constant income across age categories
households with one or two persons have
the highest income
constant ratio of owners to renters across
age categories
higher percentage of standard owners as
householders age
Percentage of
Households
Proportion of Owners to Renters and
Standard to Substandard Units by Age
Group, Brazil, 2000
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
owner
renter
standard
substandard
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and
older
Age Groups
Comparative Analysis
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
US
as householders age,
income, household
size and rate of
ownership increase
culture
education
professional opportunities
informal economy
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
Brazil
income and rate of
ownership are
constant across age
categories
Observations

households with higher incomes, regardless of
age, have more access to ownership and are
more likely to occupy standard housing
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66% earning less than 3 m.m.w. live in substandard
conditions
82% earning more than 12 m.m.w. live in standard
conditions
vacancy rates are much higher than expected
(12.7%)
million
Projected Number of Households and
Construction Need, Brazil
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Projected Number of Construction Need if Construction Need if
Households
Vacancy Rate = 12.7% Vacancy Rate = 5%
2005
2010
2015
2020
Projections for 2020
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tenure and condition of household
14.9 million additional owner-occupied
households
5.1 million additional renter-occupied
households
10.7 million additional standard households
9.3 million additional substandard households
Projected Number of Households
by Tenure, Brazil, 2003 to 2020
owner standard
owner substandard
renter standard
renter substandard
30
25
Millions
20
15
10
5
0
2003
2005
2010
2015
2020
Projections for 2020
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households with one or two persons will
increase by 44%
2.3 million additional households will
earn less than 1 m.m.w.
9 million additional households will earn
less than 3 m.m.w.
28 million additional units if vacancy rate
remains at 12.7%