Transcript Coping with Extreme Climate Events Policy Implications Joyashree Roy Professor of Economics Coordinator-Global Change Programme-JU Jadavpur University, Kolkata May 12, 2006

Coping with
Extreme Climate Events
Policy Implications
Joyashree Roy
Professor of Economics
Coordinator-Global Change Programme-JU
Jadavpur University, Kolkata
May 12, 2006
Research Question
Why and How to bind climate
issues with wider developmental
issues.
Ex of Env factors
Natural Resource
Base
Access to water
And sanitation
Dimensions of
Poverty
Livelihoods
Health
Extreme events
Vulnerability
To Environmental
Change
Access to
environmental info
Participation
In Decision
making
Elements of
Well being
Opportunity
Security
Empowerment
Bottom up Approach
Building up from
Observing the Behaviour
of direct stakeholders
Design of the study
• identification of hotspots
• understanding vulnerability
• identifying coping mechanism: households and
communities
• adaptive actions of
– vulnerable groups with private motive
– government and non-government external agencies
with social welfare motive
– generate both private and public goods and services.
• Careful analysis of these will provide us with a
portfolio of actions.
Stake holders’ perception
and action
• Through community response
• Through Household response
– Responses are based on the field survey
following LIFE approach
Policy Framework
• Sustainable development goals
–
–
–
–
Livelihood: employment
Institution: decision making, social capital
Food: poverty
Empowerment: education, health..
Hot spot selection
• hydrological model results on climate variability
related water availability scenarios
• district wise map representing population density,
intensity of agricultural activity, degree of water
stress/abundance, precipitation pattern
– They all were then overlaid on each other to identify the
villages i.e. the hotspot as intersection of all these
characteristics.
• the households in each village have been first
stratified according to their landholding pattern
Study area
• The flood basin survey has been conducted in
– villages of Nandabar, Karabar and Manitiri of the
Nayagarh district of Orissa in the Mahanadi river basin.
• the drought survey has been carried out in
– sabarkantha and Ahmedabad of gujarat in the Sabarmati
river basin. Eight villages - two each from the talukas
Himmatnagar and Modasa in Sabarkantha and Dholka
and Sanand in Ahmedabad have been selected for the
survey.
• A total of approximately 200 households have
been surveyed which due to random selection
procedure can be considered a fairly representative
sample.
Vulnerability assessment
• Vulnerability of the study areas has been
judged by three component indices
representing three sources of vulnerability:
threats to livelihood (VIL), food security
(VIF) and access to market (VIM) based on
household responses.
Vulnerability status
Category
Percentage of households showing a more than 10% fall in
monthly expenditure during extreme events
Percentage of households showing a more than 10% fall in
monthly food expenditure during extreme events
Percentage rise in the price of staple food during extreme
events
Sabarmati Hotspot
Mahanadi Hotspot
84
100
28
84
10 to 50
85 to 150
Coping capacity
•
•
•
•
•
Diversified occupational pattern
Infrastructure facilities
Asset position
Social capital
Indebtedness
No. of
h ou se h ol ds
Mahanadi Hotspot:
Occupational Distribution
60
40
20
0
Agriculture
Business and self
employment
Mahanadi Hotspot:
Types of Farmers
16%
2%
M a rgina l
S m a ll
51%
31%
S e m i- m e dium
M e dium
Mahanadi Hotspot:
Land Distribution
20%
Farm land
80%
Non farm land
Mahanadi Hotspot:
Educational Distribution
2%
8%
Illiterate
P rimary/Secondary
Graduation and above
90%
Mahanadi Hotspot:
Lighting Fuel
No. of
households
20
15
10
5
0
Kerosene
Electricity
No. of households
Mahanadi Hotspot:
Cooking Fuel
50
40
30
20
10
0
Wo o d
Kero s ene
Electricity
Co o king
g as
Pulses
(moong)
Nuts
Vegetable
Sugarcane
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Paddy
No. of Hhlds.
Mahanadi Hotspot:
Cropping Pattern
Mahanadi Hotspot:
Short-term Coping Strategies
11%
33%
18%
Sto re dry fo o d and
medicines
Wo rk in o ther
villages
Cro p ins urance
Migratio n
2%
18%
18%
P ro tect lives to ck
P ray
Mahanadi Hotspot:
Long-term Coping Strategies
Build flood
resist ant houses
9%
30%
5%
56%
Build walls
around houses
Keep
cont ingency
funds
Buy polyt hene
Mahanadi Hotspot:
Infrastructure : Source of Potable Water
during Floods
F lo o d wa te r
24%
F ilte re d flo o d wa te r
58%
16%
2%
Tra ditio na l s o uc e s
No n a va ila ble
Mahanadi Hotspot:
social capital: Support from Relatives
90
80
% of hhlds
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Food Clothes Seeds Housing Cash
mtl
aid
Loans Free lab
Mahanadi Hotspot:
Social capital: Support from Villagers &
Friends
90
80
% o f hhlds
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Food
Clothes
Seeds Housing
m tl
Cash
aid
Loans
Free lab
Mahanadi Hotspot:
Institution: Governmental Support
100
% of HHlds
80
60
40
20
0
Food
Clothes
Seeds
Housing mtl Cash aid
% of hhlds
Mahanadi Hotspot:
Institution: NGO Support
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Food Clothes Seeds Housing Cash
mtl
aid
Loans Free lab
Drinking water
Storage
Crop
compensation
Agri input aid
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Loan
PDS
Essentials
Knowledge
Transport
Health
% of hhlds
Mahanadi Hotspot:
Policy Suggestions by Stakeholders
Sabarmati Hotspot:
Occupational Distribution
Agriculture
6% 1% 0%
Animal Hus bandry
45%
35%
Agricultural Labour
Labour
13%
Service
Bus ines s
Sabarmati Hotspot:
Pattern of Land Holding
Landless
5% 1%
31%
Marginal
Small
63%
Semi- medium
Sabarmati Hotspot:
Lighting Fuel
43%
57%
Electricity
Others
Sabarmati Hotspot:
Cooking Fuel
t
Wood
100%
0
Buy fodder
Save fodder
Work in Govt
Migrat ion
Sell log
Sell livest ock
Lease out propert y
Sell propert y
Mort gage propert y
Borrow money
Dissave
% of house hol ds
Sabarmati Hotspot:
Coping Strategies
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Maize
Castor
Pulses
Cotton
Cumin
Bajra
Jowar
Wheat
Paddy
% of hhlds
Sabarmati Hotspot:
Reported Damage to Crops
60
50
40
30
20
10
Sabarmati Hotspot:
Village-wise Irrigation Availability
T otal
Vejalka
Irrigated area
Vanaliya
Juda
Faredi
Unirrigated area
Charanwada
Nani-Demoi
0
1000
2000
3000
Area (in ha.)
4000
5000
Sabarmati Hotspot:
Financial Aid Distribution
% of households
100%
90%
80%
70%
Aid nonreceivers
60%
50%
40%
Aid
receivers
30%
20%
10%
0%
S tate Govt
Others
Sabarmati Hotspot:
Policy Suggestions by Stakeholders
Adaptive capacity
• Complex combination of
– technology
– institutional governance
• Policy matrix
Policy Matrix
Time Scale,
Coverage & Actor
Technical
Institutional
Policies Common to Flood & Drought Prone Areas
Short –term
Local Measures

Early detection systems of extreme
weather events




Medium –term
Community/state
level Measures

Long –term
National Measures

Diversification
of
livelihoods through skill formation





Low interest credit
systems


Capacity building that transforms
livelihood option set
R&D to develop disaster resistant
crop strains
R&D to develop alternative
cropping patterns
Investments in studying “the
diverse” impacts of floods /droughts
including impacts on water quality
Investments in rainfall & river
monitoring & their modeling
Communication of early warning
systems
Emergency relief
Public distribution systems. &
Food banks
Purchase/mortgage scheme for
livestock

Better education
Yearly joint scientific
meetings
Media- radio/T.V. programme
disseminating
information
on
adaptation measures
Policy Matrix
Policies Specific to Flood Prone Areas
Short –term
Local Measures



Medium –term
Community/state
level Measures
Long –term
National Measures




Safe places
Flood proofing (structural & nonstructural)
Water management through
appropriate storage and distribution
systems to accelerate access to safe
water
Food preservation
Phasing out high-risk land use
practices
Assessing redistribution of risks
from structural measures including
dams, diversions and dykes

Resources
outbreak

Building for current & future
regimes

Recognising both positive &
negative aspects of “floods”
Fostering institutional learning
Investment in public health
Policies to encourage efficient
water use
Enforcing land-use zoning &
building restrictions in flood plains
or removing perverse incentives for
inappropriate risk-taking or
redistributing involuntary risks
likely to help for current & future
variability
Inter-governmental cooperation on
information systems including
those related to assessing changes
in flood regime due to climate
interacting with land-use –
residential & agricultural.




to
address
disease
Policy Matrix
Policies Specific to Drought Prone Areas
Short –term
Local Measures
Medium –term
Community/state
level Measures



Small storage ponds
Low cost irrigation
Data dissemination




Long –term
National Measures


Improving scientific knowledge,
data capability
Investments in R&D in water saving
practices and varieties





Early purchase schemes for
livestock at good prices
Ensuring technological gains are
not over-run by increases in
intensity of activities (enforced
caps on crops/year, land receiving
water)
Employing people during drought
Information systems and
monitoring to ensure “fair
compliance” &allocation at times
of scarcity. “Managers” can then do
their jobs
Water rights
Regional water sharing agreements
Water resource development
strategies that “take-into-account”
variability
Structural changes
Shift towards demand management
rather than never-ending strategies
of augmenting supply
Thank you