Introduction Introduction Background Solutions: Environmental and Engineering Intermission Solutions: Social and Political Conclusion Background Introduction Background Solutions: Environmental and Engineering Intermission Solutions: Social and Political Conclusion Geography of New Orleans Hurricane Katrina Environmental Issues Alternative Plans 100 Year Plan.
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Transcript Introduction Introduction Background Solutions: Environmental and Engineering Intermission Solutions: Social and Political Conclusion Background Introduction Background Solutions: Environmental and Engineering Intermission Solutions: Social and Political Conclusion Geography of New Orleans Hurricane Katrina Environmental Issues Alternative Plans 100 Year Plan.
Introduction
Introduction
Background
Solutions:
Environmental and Engineering
Intermission
Solutions:
Social and Political
Conclusion
Background
Introduction
Background
Solutions:
Environmental and
Engineering
Intermission
Solutions:
Social and Political
Conclusion
Geography of New
Orleans
Hurricane Katrina
Environmental
Issues
Alternative Plans
100 Year Plan
New Orleans Geography
Lake Pontchartrain (north)
Lake Borgne (east)
Mississippi River (through the city)
Gulf of Mexico (south)
Wetlands (southeast)
Environmental Concerns
Elevation– from 2 m above to 5 m below sea level
Mississippi River bed is rising
Subsidence– 5-8 mm per year
Reduction of Wetlands– 75 sq. km per year
Sea Level Rise– 11 cm to 77 cm in 100 years
Global Warming
Hurricane Katrina
Made landfall as a Category 3 in southeastern
Louisiana
Sustained winds of 125 mph
Projected storm surge of 28 ft
On August 28th, Mayor Ray Nagin enacted the first
mandatory evacuation plan
Superdome housed 26,000 people
Storm surge caused several levee breaches and
flooded city
Overall death toll: 1,800
Government Response
Response was slow and inefficient
FEMA mobilized 1000 Homeland Security workers
Firefighters and ambulance crews not allowed in
immediately
Federal government lacked sufficient devastation
information
Problems with looting
Superdome became a humanitarian crisis
Search and rescue efforts were uncoordinated
Increasing Hurricane Intensity
Hurricane Betsy - 1965
81 casualties
$1.4 billion
Hurricane Camille - 1969
335 casualties
$11 billion
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita - 2005
2,000 casualties
$105 billion
Looking 100 Years Into The Future
The Possibilities
&
The Final Proposal
The Possibilities
Rebuild and Improve
Abandon
North Shore Plan
The Final Proposal
Rebuild and Improve
Rebuild better than pre-Katrina
High cost
High risk
Preserves unique New Orleans culture
Maintains economy
Abandon
Deemed too risky to live in
Organized relocation of citizens
Low cost
Low risk
The North Shore
Preserve unique portions
Historical
Economic functions
Relocate residents to St. Tammany Parish
Make New Orleans a commuter city
High risk on North Shore also
Lack of available land
The Final Proposal
Downsize to historical sector
Move major port functions
Port of South Louisiana
Baton Rouge
New hurricane and flood protection
system
Citizens’ Relocation Committee (CRC)
Use river to develop wetlands
The Final Proposal
Incorporates the best from the other possibilities
Preserves historical sector
Provides for relocation of port economy
CRC provides for safety of suburban residents
Smaller region to protect
Lower long-term cost
Lower risk
Solutions: Environmental and
Engineering
Introduction
Background
Sea Level Rise
Solutions:
Wetlands
Environmental and
Rivers
Engineering
Flood Protection
System
Intermission
Solutions:
Social and Political
Conclusion
Global Warming
Increase in temperature
Caused by emission of greenhouse gases
Affect on sea level rise:
Thermal Expansion
Melting glaciers, ice caps
Changes to hydraulic cycle
Sea Level Rise
Range: 10 cm to 100 cm (IPCC Third
Assessment Report)
Median: 48 cm
Models used: CCCma, GFDL, HadleyCM3, MPI
Uncertainty of Sea Level Rise
Do not capture multiple climate effects
Uncertainty in heat uptake by deep ocean
Timescales lead to inaction in policy
Kyoto Protocol
Subsidence
Types of:
Endogenic – caused by human activities
Exogenic – caused by natural processes
Causes:
Groundwater withdrawal
Petroleum extraction
Tectonic motion
Cost of Sea Level Rise
$20 - 150 billion if sea levels rise 100 cm (Pugh,
2004)
$370 million dry land damages
$893 million for wetlands damage
$200 - 475 billion for coastal stabilization
$57 - 174 million in transient costs
1500 damaged homes yearly
(McCarthy, 2001)
Louisiana’s Wetlands: Functions
Commercial importance
Produces 1/4 of the nation's oil and natural
gas
Produces 1/3 of the nation’s
fisheries’ landings
Hosts 2nd largest wildlife habitat in the U.S.
Protective importance
Protection against storm surges
Every 3-4 linear miles of healthy wetlands
reduces storm surge by 1 foot
Long Term
Reduce and compensate for current rate of
loss of 75 square kilometers per year
Prepare for sea level rise
Maintain barrier islands
Improve knowledge of ecosystem
dynamics and restoration technology
Wetlands Problems and
Solutions
Draining and Filling
Zoning laws
Canals and Channels
Use fewer canals
Prevent further erosion from canals
Erosion
Barrier Islands
Use of dredged sediments
Revegetation
River diversions
Draining and Filling
Proposed Legislation:
Prohibit draining and filling of ecologically
important wetlands
100 foot buffer between wetlands and developed
areas
Best management techniques for drilling and
farming
Canals
Small Scale Canal Impact
Canal dredging
Human-altered hydrology and substrate
collapse
Large Scale Canal Impact
Deep navigation canals
Pipelines
8,000 miles of pipelines across coastal
Louisiana
Barrier Islands
Katrina’s destruction of Chandeleur
barrier islands (approximately 50% loss)
Present-day: slow rate of recovery
Immediately: dredging
Sand deposits of previous delta lobes
(i.e. Ship Shoal)
Dredged Sediments-Marsh
Sediment pumped into or placed on
shallow water areas
Increases elevation of marshes or creates
new marsh
Mixed success
May become more important in the
context of increased sea level
Revegetation
Major plant death
Salt water intrusion
Lack of nutrients
Stabilization of soil
Species must be well-adapted to predicted
conditions
Spartina can tolerate moderate salinity
River Distributaries
Dredged sediments and revegetation are
inefficient to continue long term
Sediment and nutrient delivery system
Raise elevation
Counteract subsidence
Revive ecosystems to reduce erosion
Distributaries
Two distributaries
Each divert up to 1/5 of normal river
discharge
Floodgate at entry point to control water
level
Open wider during floods
Open less during low water
Armored banks
Distributaries
EAST: Breton Sound
Fill in MRGO until Violet Canal
Violet Canal and MRGO form distributary
WEST: Barataria Bay
Wilkinson Canal forms distributary
Establish Barataria Waterway as main canal for
Lafayette oil and gas field
Cutoff
Southern cutoff
2 crevasses between cutoff and Buras –
maintain navigation, not flood control
No levees below Buras – navigation channel
will not be maintained
Entry Point: Buras
Buras to replace Head of Passes as main
entry point to deep draft channel
Two navigation canals will allow entry from
east and west
Bird-foot delta abandoned; nothing south of
Buras unless built on a deepwater platform
Problem: Riverbed Rise
Riverbed rise
Sediment builds up on riverbed because it cannot
be distributed on floodplain
Increasing stress on Old River Control
Structure
Maintains 70% discharge through current
Mississippi River channel
Dredging
River currently being dredged to maintain
navigation channel
Very costly but feasible because of
economic importance of river
Wing Dams
Wing dams: dikes that extend from a river’s
banks while allowing water to flow
unhindered through the middle of the
channel
Water behind dams will slow and drop
sediment, building up sediment behind the
dam
River channel will narrow and deepen
Wing Dams, cont.
Increased current velocity and pressure on bed
will increase erosion, promote self-scouring
process to bring bed level closer to sea level
River banks must be armored, so that increased
erosion occurs on the bottom and not the sides
New river entry point at Buras shortens
horizontal distance, allowing erosion to steepen
profile
New River Specifications
Below Baton Rouge maintain 500 ft wide
main channel, wide enough to
accommodate riverboat traffic
Between Port of South Louisiana and
Wilkinson Canal maintain 650 ft wide main
channel, to accommodate the traffic at
Port of New Orleans, especially boats
turning around
Old River
Erosion of bed closer to sea level will
decrease height difference between
Atchafalaya and Mississippi beds at Old
River, currently 12-14 ft
Material will be dredged from behind Old
River to match changing elevation of
Mississippi River bed
Increases capacity and use of existing
structure for flood control
Flood Protection System Plans
Filling in the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet
Floodgates and double pumps on the 17th
Street, Orleans Avenue, and London
Avenue Canal Levees
Levee Reconstruction
Monitoring and Maintenance
Filling-In the Mississippi River
Gulf Outlet
Storm surge coming up outlet was
intensified, causing levees to be breached
Filling-in protects against funnel effect
Commercial/industrial impact
Floodgates and Double Pumps
Floodgates stop water from coming into
the city through the canals
Gates close when storm surge threatens
Governance by NOAA
Increase and redesign pump system
throughout city
Levee and Floodwall
Reconstruction
Patchwork system
Levees poorly monitored
Subsidence
I-walls protecting Lower Ninth Ward
New Orleans East levees overtopped and
eroded
I-walls were not able to handle pressure from
storm surges
Scouring and seepage caused some I-walls to
fail
Foundations were poor
Solutions
Rebuild to withstand Category 5 hurricane:
Replace I-walls with T-walls
Selective levee armoring
Rolled clay levees
Replace poor foundations with compacted soil
New levees from Intracoastal Waterway to
Jefferson West Levee System
Monitoring and Maintenance
Levee Governance Board
Yearly levee inventory
Differential Global Positioning System to
monitor subsidence
Role of Army Corps
Timeline
Floodwalls and levees raised to approved
heights and engineering errors fixed.
2010
Nov 2006
Sept 2007
Temporary floodgates on canals.
220 miles of levee repaired.
Flood Protection System complete.
Intermission
Introduction
Background
Solutions:
Environmental and Engineering
Intermission
Solutions:
Social and Political
Conclusion
Absorbing the Information
The 100 Year Plan
Environmental and Engineering Issues
Sea level rise and subsidence
Wetlands
Mississippi River
Flood Protection System
Solutions: Social and Political
Introduction
Downsizing/Zoning
Background
Ports/Jobs/Relocation
Solutions:
Social/Cultural
Environmental and
Engineering
Intermission
Solutions:
Social and Political
Conclusion
Insurance/Building Codes
Evacuation
Costs
Committee for Continued
Monitoring
Downsizing By District
What Do We Do Now?
Risk of subsidence, sea level rise,
increased storm surge
Returned population- 190,000; 43% of the
2004 population of 440,000
Residents rebuilding
Repair Hurricane Protection Systems- $300
million spent by Army Corps of Engineers
Lakeview and Gentilly
Safe in the short term
Repaired Hurricane Protection Systems:
$170 million spent by Army Corps of
Engineers
Plans for another $120 million in future
projects
Necessary for general protection of city
Will be zoned over 50 years
50 Year Zoning Plan
Time
Zoning Law
Immediate
No new house construction
5 years
No household additions
10 years
No immigration
Criteria for Clearing Neighborhoods
Time
Occupancy
Immediate
<5%
30 years
<10%
35 years
<15%
40 years
<20%
45 years
<25%
50 years
All evacuated from selected neighborhoods
New Orleans East, Venetian
Isles, Village de L’Est
Severe damage and high subsidence rates
Would not be safe if another, similar hurricane
hit
Significant additional costs to make these areas
safe
$67.5 million spent
$232.5 million planned
Eminent domain, “full and just” compensation
Lower Ninth Ward
Considerable damage: 82% of homes had at
least $5,200 in damages
Subsidence rate of 5 mm/year
Average elevation 0.9 meters above sea level
Returned population of 5%
Suitable for rebuilding
Remaining districts in Orleans Parish will be
preserved
Plaquemines
57 % of homes sustained greater than
$5200 in damage
13 mm per year subsidence rate
Downriver from Pointe a la Hache
immediate evacuation
Between Wilkinson Canal and Pointe a la
Hache—50 Year Zoning Plan
Other Uses for Land
Research Area
Wetlands
Alternate Energy Sources
Wildlife Reserve
Port Functions
Port of South Louisiana will take over
many of the roles of the Port of New
Orleans
Shift shipping and trading business out
while maintaining tourism
Provide monetary incentives for businesses
to relocate to Port of South Louisiana
Jobs
We plan to move businesses to Baton
Rouge
- Preparing Baton Rouge
- Offering incentives for businesses to
relocate
Most jobs still in New Orleans will be
related to tourism
Relocating People
People will relocate
- Zoning and eminent domain in some
neighborhoods
- Following the jobs to other cities
Offer support through the Citizens’
Relocation Committee (CRC) and
monetary aid
Plans for Preservation Programs
Goal: promote cultural awareness
Festivals, museums, libraries, and
memorials
Example: New Orleans Jazz and Heritage
Festival
New Orleans History Month
Preserve a city’s culture while moving on
to a safer, more efficient municipality in a
new location
Social Considerations
Completion of clean-up
Reopening of funeral homes
Beautification of cemeteries
Propagation of neighborhood festivals
Hurricane and Flood Memorial
Education
Vocational training
Non-academic activities for grade school students
Normalize transportation and hours
New curriculum:
Local cultural and political history
Diversity acceptance
Hurricane and flood preparedness
Conservation and environmentally sound living
Insurance Policy
Louisiana Department of Insurance
clarify insurance ambiguities
expansion of agent-homeowner
services
Mandatory National Flood Insurance
Program
avoid “natural disaster syndrome”
Building Codes and Green
Architecture
First Floor Plan
Minimizes flood damage
$5000 contents coverage limit
Wind Damage Recommendations
Protection of building openings
Improved roof-sheathing attachment
Improved roof-wall connections
Secondary waterproofing to roof joints
Green Architecture
Government-Subsidized Housing
Single family homes and low-rise
apartments
Follow building codes and green
architecture guidelines
Integration of mixed income communities
Evacuation/Storm Refuge
Evacuation Routes
Major evacuation routes:
I-10 to Baton Rouge/Houston
I-55
I-59 to northern Mississippi
Contraflow changes inbound to outbound
Car Access and Remnant
Population Problem
Superdome housed 26,000 people
9% of population has no car access
Solution:
Public bus transportation to common
evacuation destinations
Set up additional local shelters
Staff and supply Superdome with a
maximum capacity
Baton Rouge Overpopulation
Problem
Baton Rouge's population nearly doubled with
incoming evacuees
Solution:
Allow only up to 50-100,000 refugees into city
LSU as temporary shelter
Develop Houston as evacuation destination by
designating Astrodome as a shelter and
Astrodome/Reliant Center Complex as a
health clinic
Current Plan: Phase System
Phase
Location
Time Before
Landfall (hrs.)
Strength of
Hurricane
1
South of
Intracoastal
Waterway
50
Category 1 or
higher
2
Between
Intracoastal
Waterway and
Mississippi
River
40
Category 2 or
higher
3
Between
Mississippi
River and I-12
30
Slow-moving
Category 3 or
higher
Additions
Phase 3 begins contraflow
During Phase 1, begin pre-supplying
shelters in New Orleans with food, water,
and first-aid kits
Contract private companies to do so and to
stock excess emergency supplies such as
flashlights and batteries throughout
hurricane season.
Evacuation Cooperation
20-30% of New Orleans population failed to
evacuate
Solution:
Remind public of hurricane dangers; increase
evacuation cooperation
Hurricane Awareness Week
Continue to advertise/distribute info
pertaining to evacuation routes, home
security, bus transport stops
Costs of Short-Term Plan
Wetland Restoration
Levee Repair & Construction
Clean-Up and Recycling
Acquisition of Land
City Planning and Insurance
Mississippi River
TOTAL
$815,558,000
$15,125,000,000
$2,500,000
$6,480,400,000
$1,401,345
$248,855,000
$22,672,313,000
+ $500,370 per government
subsidized and insured
house
Costs of Long-Term Plan
Wetland Restoration
$24,435,000,000
Levee Repair & Maintenance
$15,000,000,000
Phasing Out of People and
Industry
Mississippi River Monitoring
and Maintenance
TOTAL
$40,000,000,000
$3,500,000,000
$82,935,000,000
Committee for Continued
Monitoring
Experts and professionals from many
different fields
Provides flexibility to our proposal
Keeping New Orleans safe in the future
Conclusion
Introduction
Background
Solutions:
Environmental and Engineering
Intermission
Solutions:
Social and Political
Conclusion
Conclusion
A plan of integration
A downsized, sustainable city
A New Orleans for the future
Credits
We would like to thank Sam Bowring, Rafael
Bras, Ari Epstein, Katrina Cornell, our
Undergraduate Teaching Fellows, our
Alumni Mentors, Debra Aczel, Maria
Shkolnik, Ruth Weinrib, and the librarians.
We would also like to thank the panelists.
Mission 2010: New Orleans