Oregon’s Forest Future Use ‘em or Lose ‘em! Hal Salwasser Oregon State University, College of Forestry Portland, OR September, 2005
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Oregon’s Forest Future Use ‘em or Lose ‘em! Hal Salwasser Oregon State University, College of Forestry Portland, OR September, 2005 What We’ll Cover Forestry deans’ vision for forests Forest values American forests in a global context Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead A Vision for Forests Vibrant, healthy, dynamic ecosystems sustaining a full array of forest benefits from preservation to production Sustaining and enriching human well being through diverse values, uses, products and services; Managed and conserved to meet changing needs based on local knowledge plus ever-improving science and technologies; Serving current and future generations in sustaining our communities and rich cultural heritage; and Constant sources for learning about relationships between people and natural resources Forests that … Deliver high quality water Sustainably meet domestic needs for forest-based renewable resources Reward owners/stewards with multiple benefits Perpetuate biological and cultural diversity Ameliorate impacts of some human activities Grow in extent, productivity, resilience Are managed for distinct local capabilities & values Restore human spirit and stewardship ethic Bring people together for common purpose so we dream a bit Lands of Many Values Forestry deans’ vision for forests Forest values American forests in a global context Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead Forests are Sources of Life 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Clean water and air Abundant fish and wildlife Cultural heritage Climate and carbon Recreation and aesthetics Wood and fiber Non-wood forest products Jobs and personal identity Wealth and revenues Forests Sustain Quality of Life #1 Clean air and water … Forests Sustain Quality of Life #2 Fish and wildlife habitat … Forests Sustain Quality of Life Recreation … Forests Sustain Quality of Life Scenic beauty … Forests Sustain Quality of Life Forests store ~ 45% of the carbon held in terrestrial ecosystems, turn CO2 + sunlight into O2 + wood Climate, carbon, and oxygen … Forests Sustain Quality of Life Wood products … Forests Sustain Quality of Life Jobs … 155,100 family-wage jobs Forests Sustain Quality of Life Revenues to support schools and public services Global Forest Context Forestry deans’ vision for forests Forest values American forests in a global context Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead Global Forces of Change Population growth: 6.3 Bil. in 2003 to ~ 8 Bil. in 2050 Technology: steady advances + breakthroughs Political instability: local to global, ballot measures to wars Trade: barriers/subsidies, free vs fair Industry restructuring: global integration, consolidation, timberland for financial/real estate investment Rich-poor gap: growing Raising of “green” consciousness: more than air/water Consumption growth: space, water, fossil fuels, food, wood, minerals Climate change: yes but variable, uncertain regional effects Non-native invasive species + explosive natives Pervasive Change Need for prudent risk taking, continual learning and adaptation Global Forest Trends Forest area: ~ 9.6 Billion ac; 50-66% loss since 1600 ce Forest loss: ~ 23 Million ac/yr in 1990s Population + Economic Growth = Forest Loss But not always: - 30 mil ac/yr in tropics, + 7 mil ac/yr in non-tropics Demands for forest benefits ever growing Water quality, quantity: THE biggest future global forest issue Wood use: < 0.5%/yr long term; supply solid but lots of illegal harvest Biodiversity conservation: yes but public still bewildered after 20 years Carbon storage: how much, trees + products, market uncertainty Recreation, subsistence, cultural uses: highly variable by ownership Some Global Leaders 22 Forest Area: Russia Wood Volume: Russia 23 Wood Biomass: Brazil 27 24 Plantation Forests: China Solid Wood Produced: US 22 Solid Wood Used: US 30 Solid Wood Imports: US 30 Solid Wood Exports: Canada 32 0 UN FAO 2005: 2000, 2002 data 5 10 15 20 25 Percent of World Share 30 35 Global & U.S. Wood Use Ind. wood use rose 40% since 1960: ~ 1.6 BM3, recent growth slowing – 1%/yr pre-1990; 0.5%/yr post 1995 Fuel wood use > industrial wood use: ~ 1.8 BM3 and growing? Ind. wood use could increase < 33% by 2050: from 1.6 - 2.1 BM3 ~ 75% of global wood and fiber may come from planted forests by mid century or earlier (Sedjo and others) ~ 31% of global solid wood consumption crosses an international boundary from tree to product now; most likely to increase US imports now 27-31% of solid wood products consumed; exports associated jobs & impacts (81% growth since 1991) US uses 30% of world’s solid wood products; largest per capita US forest and wood choices drive global wood market UN FAO 2005: 2002 data + Perez-Garcia on future demand US in Global Context 4.7 People Forest Land 5.8 Wood Volume in Forests 8 Plantion Forests 8.6 Reserve Forest 9 22 Solid Wood Produced Solid Wood Used 30 Solid Wood Imported 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Percent of World Share (UN FAO 2005: 2000, 2003 data) Sustainability Forestry deans’ vision for forests Forest values American forests in a global context Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead Sustainability Progressive improvement in environmental, economic and cultural conditions Equity across societal sectors and generations Engaging people in social choices that affect them Adaptable to pervasive change Sustainable Forestry The suite of policies, plans and practices that seek to protect, produce, and perpetuate forest ecosystems for the values, uses, products, and services desired by communities and landowners for this and future generations NCSSF 2005 Sustainability Not possible without taking risks and continually adapting to change, making things better Its not about standing still! Fitting Forest to Purpose Forestry deans’ vision for forests Forest values American forests in a global context Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead Breadth of Sustainable Forest Management Varies by forest type, ownership, primary purpose Primary forest purposes: Wood and fiber production Multiple resource values/uses Reserves, nature preservation Urban and community forests Wood Production Forests Most of world’s future wood will come from planted forests: ~ 33% now, ~ 75% by 2050 ~ 10% or less of global forest area Primary purposes: Grow trees for wood, fiber Increase forest value to owner Management challenges: Thrive in global markets Increase wood yield: > 2x over natural Improve environmental outcomes Improve wood quality, consistency Produce high return on investment Maintain social license to operate Who Owns Prod. Forest? Million Acres by Owner 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Site Class in Ft3/Ac/Yr 1 = >120 2 = 85-120 3 = 50-85 4 = 20-50 5 = 0-20 National Forest Other Public Forest Industry Source: Powell et al. (1993) Tables 5 and 6 Family Forests Why PNW for Wood? Cubic Meters/Ha/Year Growth US South intensive pine Western PNW intensive D-fir Brazil eucalyptus New Zealand radiata Boreal countries managed World ave. natural 0 10 20 30 Data accurate only in relative sense; years to CMAI vary 8-60 40 50 60 Multi-resource Forests Most of the world’s accessible forests have multiple resource purposes ~ 40% of global forest area eventually Primary purposes: Meet diverse landowner objectives Increase forest value to owner(s) Challenges: If US federal, clarify purposes and direction Deliver multi-resource/value outcomes at acceptable costs Differentiate products in markets Finance non-market benefits Finance management of federal lands Reserve Forests Parks, wilderness, natural areas: ~ 12% worldwide in 2000 ~ 50% of global forest area eventually Primary purposes: Sustain at-risk species, natural processes, “wild” ecosystems Recreation, cultural uses Management challenges: Minimize human use impacts Restore, promote wildness, naturalness Ameliorate effects of invasive species, air pollution, explosive natives Achieve goals for least costs Finance management Urban, Community Forests Where 80% of the people live Primary purposes: Attractive communities, neighborhoods Conserve resources: water, energy Increase property values Backyard wildlife habitats Management challenges: Safety, infrastructure impacts Minimize sprawl Minimize invasive species escapes Reserve Forests: Mostly federal, some state, tribal, private and ENGO Wood Production Forests: Mostly industry, TIMO, family, some state, tribal Forest Sustainability Environmental Benefits Urban, Community Forests: Forests where people live Multi-resource Forests: Mostly state, tribal, some family, some federal Ownership Matters Commodity Wood Quality Multi-resource Multi-resource Managed Wood Reserve w/o Wood w/ Wood Industry, TIMO Un-managed Reserve * * Private, large Family, small-medium States, Tribes, ENGOs Federal * Streamside zones, leave trees, habitats as mini or micro reserves * * Oregon Forests -- 45% State Federal Tribal Private Water Oregon Forest Owners Family 16% Federal 57% Industry/TIMO 21% Other Public 6% Oregon’s Balance Wood Production 36% Reserve 31% Multi-use 33% The Forest Cluster* People Place Products Forests Businesses Policies Infrastructure/ Institutions * A cluster is all the entities engaged in or affiliated with a core business, in this case forests and forest products broadly defined Economic Impact for Oregon Forest cluster (SIC data for 2000)* $12.6 billion total industrial output (TIO); 6.3% of State TIO all sectors 85,600 direct jobs; 4% of State jobs all sectors $3.5 billion wages; ave wage = $40,600; State ave wage = $34,840 More than 25% of traded sector economy in 22/36 OR counties * Hovee 2004: includes primary and secondary products, forestry services Leadership in Needed Forestry deans’ vision for forests Forest values American forests in a global context Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead Challenges 1. Keep forest lands in forest uses for forest values 2. 3. 4. 5. Sustainably meet people’s many forest resource needs, domestically when feasible Improve both production and conservation efficiency Restore and sustain health of at-risk forests Create new knowledge and technologies: 6. Sustain US forests in face of global forces, urban sprawl Science and products for progressive sustainability Product and practice innovations for competitive advantage Enhance lifelong learning and extended education AND Address Demand -Consumption Ethic Intelligent consumption and production of renewable natural resources is key to sustaining quality of life; Overuse, non-renewable substitutes, transfer effects degrade ecosystems somewhere; Prudent choices consider full impacts, the future, and the entire life cycle of resources – Domestic Renewables Win! University Roles … Educate a highly skilled, diverse forest/mill workforce and future forest scientists and teachers Create a stronger science base for all forest management systems; improve regulatory efficiency Innovations for improved market and environmental performance of all US forests and forest products Innovations to increase productivity and sustainability of US forest resources and forest products Educate a more knowledgeable, responsible citizenry Promote prudent policies, empower communities Advocate for diverse, productive, resilient forests and associated economies and human communities Restoration Challenge Forest health Threats Magnitude of the problem Options Integrated strategy Healthy Forest? Functions as intended according to capabilities; landowner goals; state, federal, and/or tribal laws and policies Delivers high quality water in quantities and seasons that sustain ecosystems and people Sustains native fish and wildlife species and populations compatible with forests’ primary purpose(s) Resilient to stresses, e.g., drought, insects, diseases, storms, fires, invasive species, explosive natives Has community support to produce the array of values, uses, products and services desired by owners Threats to Forest Health Uncharacteristic fire Invasive species and explosive natives Climate change and drought Residential encroachment Loss of markets, infrastructure Magnitude of Problem 67 M ac (52%) of western timberland in fire classes 2 and 3 97 M ac (75%) of western timberland need thinning for resilience 62% of treatable volume is on national forests 86% of trees to remove are l.t. 10” dbh 72% of volume is in trees g.t. 10” dbh 1999 western industry used 32 M bdt for all products 30 year plan for treatment yields range from +8 to +51 M bdt/yr Potentially large impacts for wood prices, mill and cogen energy capacity Treatment costs w/o products $35-$1,000/ac Now treating ~ 4 mil ac/yr; ave. ~ $250/ac Biomass compounding at 1.7%/year; doubles in 41 years What are the Options? Let nature take its course; the default option in all cases Intervene to reduce or eliminate existing stresses Stop pollution, stop practices that impede health, manage pests Intervene to restore resilience before extreme stress Be bold enough, soon enough to make a difference – reduce stocking Intervene after events to restore health or influence resilience to stress and the trajectory and rate of ecosystem recovery Act quickly and boldly to remove threats to desired future conditions; contain costs; generate $$ for restoration; influence future species, stocking, and/or competing vegetation Integrated Strategy Assess the need for intervention and priorities at site, watershed, and landscape scales – collaborative, community engagement if public lands involved Target actions/treatments strategically for highest success, lowest failure; i.e., highest benefits @ lowest costs Design actions for learning – adaptive management Link restoration actions to complementary goals: Water, fish, wildlife, wood yield, aesthetics, recreation, carbon Energy, transportation, jobs, wood-based products Create some wealth to cover at least part of costs Monitor and research to reduce costs, increase benefits Communicate, learn, adapt – close the loop on continual learning Time to Conclude Why do we need to manage forests? The Case for Management Wood Production Forests Sustain progressive productivity and increase value as forests Compete in global markets Excel in commodity woods, customer service Add value, differentiate wood and wood-based products; marketing Sustain resilience to drought, insects, disease, fire Multi-resource Forests Sustain joint resource production Diversify revenues to finance management: quality wood + recreation + ecosystem services + biomass energy Restore diversity, resilience to drought, insects, disease, fire Reserve Forests Restore wildness and natural processes Contain human impacts Future Forests? If we wisely use, conserve and manage forest resources, we will have healthy, productive, resilient future forests for all values. If we do not use them or use them unwisely, we will lose private forest to other land uses and we will lose public forest health and vitality to fires, insects, and invasive species.