Transcript WMO CBS operational collection/display of seasonal (and sub-seasonal) forecasts Richard Graham, Met Office Hadley Centre.

WMO CBS operational collection/display of
seasonal (and sub-seasonal) forecasts
Richard Graham, Met Office Hadley Centre. With acknowledgements to all GPCs, LCLRFMME, LC-SVSLRF and members of the WMO Expert Team on Extended and Longrange Forecasting (ET-ELRF)
WMO/THORPEX/WCRP sub-seasonal to seasonal implementation planning meeting, WMO HQ, Geneva,
2-3 December 2011
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Content
• CBS operational seasonal (and monthly) data exchange and
products – GPCs, Lead Centres
Input on:
• Intra-seasonal applications
• Future CBS operational extended-range data exchange (in ETELRF terms of reference)
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WMO CBS coordination of centres
producing long-range forecasts:
Global Producing Centres (GPCs)
• 12 WMO-designated GPCs centres adhering to agreed
procedures/standards in LRF – forming an integral part of the WMO GDPFS
• 2 Lead Centres, facilitating user access to GPC products
• Lead Centre for Long-range Forecast Multi-model Ensembles (LCLRFMME) – jointly operated by KMA/NOAA NCEP
• Lead Centre for the Standard Verification System for Long-range
Forecasts (LC-SVSLRF) – jointly operated by BoM/MSC
• Aim of this GDPFS infrastructure: improve access and usability of
global LRF products to aid production of regional/national climate
services
• Growing use at RCOFs and NCOFs
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GPC designation criteria
• have fixed production cycles and time of
issuance;
• provide an agreed minimum set of long-range
forecast products,
• 2m temp, precipitation, SST (averages of at least 1-month);
• any lead-time between 0 and 4 months.
• provide an agreed set of forecast quality
measures (WMO Standard Verification System
for LRF);
• provide up-to-date information on forecast
methodology used;
• make products accessible to users (through
website and Lead Centres)
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The 12 WMOdesignated GPCs
GPC name
Centre
System
Configurati
on
(ensemble
size of
forecast)
Resolution
(atmosphere)
Hindcast
period
used
Beijing
Beijing Climate Centre
Coupled (48)
T63/L16
1983-2004
CPTEC
Centre for Weather
Forecasts and Climate
Studies
2-tier (15)
T62/L28
1979-2001
ECMWF
European Centre for
Medium Range Weather
Forecasts
Coupled (41)
T159/L62
1981-2005
Exeter
Met Office Hadley
Centre
Coupled (42)
1.25°x1.85°/L
38
1989-2002
Melbourne
Australian Bureau of
Meteorology
Coupled (30)
T47/L17
1980-2006
Montreal
Meteorological Service
of Canada
2-tier (40)
T32/T63/T95/2.0
°x2.0° (4model
combination)
1969-2004
Seoul
Korean Meteorological
Agency
2-tier (20)
T106/L21
1979-2007
Tokyo
Japan Meteorological
Agency
Coupled (51)
T95/L40
1979-2008
Toulouse
Météo-France
Coupled (41)
T63/L91
1979-2007
Washington
National Centres for
Environmental
Prediction
Coupled (40)
T62/L64
1981-2004
Moscow
Hydromet Centre of
Russia
2-tier (10)
1.1°x1.4°/L28
1979-2003
Pretoria
South African Weather
Service
2-tier (6)
T42/L19
1983-2001
Data collected/processed/displayed
by LC-LRFMME
• 1-month means for (at least) next 3-months; all
ensemble members (forecast and hindcast);
• Variables:
•
•
•
•
•
•
2m temperature
SST
Total precipitation
MSLP
850 hPa temperature
500 hPa geopotential height
• Collected every month between 15th-20th.
• Forecast displays updated on LC-LRFMME
website ~ 20-25th of month.
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Products
• Individual GPCs
• Deterministic (ensemble mean anomalies)
• Multi-model (deterministic+):
• ensemble mean anomalies
• Nino plumes
• Model consistency (of anomaly sign)
• multi-model can be user defined
• Multi-model (probabilistic)
• Probabilities of tercile categories
• Subset of GPCs
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Lead Centre for Long Range
Forecast Multi Model Ensemble
http://www.wmolc.org
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Seasonal AND monthly products
displayed on LC-LRFMME website
Dec
Jan
DJF
GPC Washington
Ensemble mean
anomalies: pmsl
(2011)
Feb
GPC products from LC-LRFMME website:
DJF 2010/11: ensemble mean pmsl anomaly
Exeter
ECMWF
Toulouse
Beijing
Melbourne
Seoul
Montreal
Washington
Tokyo
‘Dynamic’ userselectable domain
Coupled systems
Un-coupled
systems
Same
available for
individual
months
Pretoria
Multi-model GPC products from LC-LRFMME
website: DJF 2010/11, ensemble mean pmsl
anomaly
Ensemble mean
of 10 GPCs
Ensemble mean
of 7 GPCs
(coupled systems)
Ensemble mean
of 3 GPCs (uncoupled systems)
multi-model subsets
produced interactively from
LC-LRFMME website
Presented at South East
Europe Regional Climate
Outlook Forum (SEECOF),
22-26 November 2010
2mT, precipitation, T850,
Z500, SST and for individual
calendar month periods
Nino3.4 plumes
GPC model consistency plots:
Individual months:
number of models with +ve /-ve anomalies
Dec 2011
Z500
Precip
T850
PMSL
2mT
SST
GPC model consistency plots:
Individual months:
number of models with +ve /-ve anomalies
DJF 2011
Z500
Precip
T850
PMSL
2mT
SST
Probabilistic products with subset of
GPC providing hindcasts
Dec 2011
Probabilistic products with subset of
GPC providing hindcasts
DJF 2011
Use at RCOFs: WMO Lead Centre
information and final GHACOF consensus,
SOND 2010
LC-LRFMME
Model consistency
Verification
Statistical
models +
Forecaster
judgement
Observed SON anomalies
35
Final consensus
40
25
25
35
40
Summary – global LRF
• 12 WMO designated GPCs supply seasonal and ‘subseasonal‘
data
• 2 WMO Lead centres: dealing with standardised display/multimodelling and forecast validation
• Deterministic products and probabilistic products
• In active use by RCCs, RCOFs, NMHSs (~123 registered users,
49 countries – as of early 2011)
• Probability products will form basis of prediction component of
the WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU).
• Key plans (guided by the Expert Team for Extended and Longrange Forecasts) – in line with GFCS vision - include:
•
verification of multi-model products
•
Investigation/development of extended (monthly) range capability
•
investigation/development of multiannual–to-decadal capability
(decadal GPCs?)
CSRP: consultation in Africa
Total of 52 interviews across 8
African countries
Questionnaire fielded to 9
climate service providers
Type and number of organisations interviewed
Ranking of priorities
No. of votes
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
at
Sp
ia
ow
lD
Rank 1
Rank 2
Rank 3
Rank 4
ns
lin
ca
T
g
l
ra
po
em
d
n
tio
u
ib
tr
is
e
Fr
E
of
q.
x
es
m
e
tr
u
M
nu
an
i
lt
/D
al
a
ec
l
da
Science component (3): Predicting
Michael Vellinga
onset timing
based on local time of arrival of 20% of long-term seasonal average
Average southward
progression of rains with ITZC
observed
Example:
East Africa
short-rains
(OND)
Skill of Met Office seasonal
forecasts of ‘onset’ timing
early onset
orange/red =
‘good’ skill
modelled
late onset
Encouraging first results: trial onset forecasts have been provided to Regional
Climate Outlook Forums ICPAC, ACMAD and SADC-DMC
Predicting onset timing: example Greater
Horn of Africa short-rains season 2011 (OND) –
prediction from August
based on local time of arrival of 20% of long-term seasonal average
Probability of
early arrival
Probability of
late arrival
Observed time
of arrival
Early thoughts on LC-LRFMME
operational exchange
Strawman proposal for operational exchange:
• Coordinate research and operational exchanges with operational
exchange a subset of research (delayed release) exchange?
• 2-weekly issues: first, with the release of LC-LRFMME seasonal
forecast; second, 2 weeks later;
• Daily data to ~32 days; small number of essential variables;
• Products to be period means;
7 GPCs responded so far:
• 5 basically ‘yes’; 1 ‘too early’: 1 system not operational;
• Key issue: coordinating release date to get usefully short lead time,
different GPCs have different release dates; should release date be
fixed day of month or day of week?
• Some with data policy issues and other reservations (e.g. Timing of
products)
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Thank you! Any questions?