CBS EXPERT TEAM ON EXTENDED AND LONG-RANGE FORECASTING 26~30 March 2012, Geneva, Switzerland WMO Lead Center for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-LRFMME) : Status/progress.
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CBS EXPERT TEAM ON EXTENDED AND LONG-RANGE FORECASTING 26~30 March 2012, Geneva, Switzerland WMO Lead Center for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-LRFMME) : Status/progress report Suhee Park Korea Meteorological Administration Contents History of WMO LC-LRFMME Function of WMO LC-LRFMME WMO Global Producing Centre (GPC) Data collection Products and Activities of WMO LC-LRFMME Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Summary History & Acknowledgement 2005 WMO GPC meeting (October, Korea) - KMA suggested the need of LC-LRFMME. WMO CCL meeting (November, China) - KMA presented the need for establishing LC-LRFMME. 2006 The joint ET of DPFS agreed needs of Lead Center(s) for collection of globally available LRF to build MMEs (April, England). KMA, jointly with NCEP, completed submission of Lead Center application form to the WMO (September). WMO CBS-Ext.06 (November, Korea) - The commission encouraged GPCs to provide their data to LC-LRFMME. 2007 LC-LRFMME established the data exchange system (June). WMO/KMA GPC Workshop (September, Korea) - Refining needs for and functions of LC-LRFMME 2008 2009 WMO Meeting of the ET on Extended and LRF (April, China). - Redefining the goal and functions of LC-LRFMME WMO CBS-XIV (April, Croatia) - LC-LRFMME was officially endorsed. www.themegallery.com Functions of LC-LRFMME Primary Functions • Maintains a repository of documentation for the system configuration of all GPC LRF systems • Collects an agreed set of forecast data from GPCs • Generates an agreed set of Lead Centre (LC) products • Redistributes digital forecast data for those GPC’s that allow it • Handles requests for the password for the website and data distribution Data collection Beijing CPTEC (BCC) (CPTEC) Melbourne Montreal Moscow Pretoria Seoul Tokyo Toulouse Washington (ECMWF) (EXETER) (POAMA) (MSC) (HMC) (SAWS) (GDAPS) (TCC) (toulouse) (NCEP) 6 months 6 months 5 months 6 months 3 months 3 months 3 months 3 months 3 months 6 months 9 months Grib1 grib1 grib1 grib1 grib1 grib1 grib1 grib1 grib2 grib1 grib1 2009.12~ 2009.02~ 2009.09~ 2008.07~ 2011~ 2008.02~ 2009.08~ 2007.11~ 2010.02~ 2009.02~ 2008.02~ collected data Ensemble mean (raw), Ensemble (raw), Ensemble (raw) Ensemble mean (raw), Ensemble (raw) ensemble Mean (ano), Ensemble (ano) ensemble mean (raw) Ensemble (raw, ano) Ensemble (raw) Ensemble mean (raw), Ensemble (raw) Ensemble mean (ano), ensemble (ano) Ensemble mean (raw) Ensemble mean (raw, ano), Ensemble (raw, ano) ensemble Mean (raw, ano) ensemble mean (ano), Ensemble (ano) members 8 15 41 42 30 20 (2model x 10) 10 6 20 51 41 40 Hindcast period 1983~ Forecasting 3 months range data bin Format Forecast 2008.02~ period ECMWF EXETER 1979~2001 1981~2005 1989~2002 1980~2006 1981~2010 1979~2003 1982~2001 Ensemble mean Ensemble collected (raw), (raw), data Ensemble climatology (raw), climatology x Ensemble mean (raw) members 11 12 - - 8 additional parameter U850, V850, (without U200, V200 parameter) 10 x Ensemble (raw) x Ensemble (raw) 10 6 20 10 11 15 (SST) (SST) - - 20 (4model x 10) U850, V850, U850, U200, V200,V850,U200, olr, Tsfc V200 (SST) 1979~2008 1979~2007 1981~2004 Ensemble mean (raw), Ensemble (raw), climatology Ensemble Ensemble mean Ensemble (raw), (raw), (raw) climatology Ensemble (raw) 10 1979~ U850, U850, V850, V850,U200, U200, V200 V200 (SST) resolution : 144x73, basic parameter : rain, mslp, t2m, z500, t850, sst, blue shading: tier-2, peach shading: coupled Collecting time of each GPCs data Collecting time of GPC data 1 3 5 7 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 Period of research relevant to GSCU 17 18 GPC Collecting time Beijing 10~15th CPTEC 14~17th ECMWF 14~17th EXETER 14~18th Melbourne 12~15th Montreal 1~3th Moscow 11~16th Pretoria 14~17th Seoul 12~14th Tokyo 18~20th Toulouse 14~18th Washington 14~18th 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Period of producing forecast data & Homepage display 27 28 29 31 LC-LRFMME Website http://www.wmolc.org No. of Members : 343 members from 78 countries Links to 12 GPCs Membership & Data upload/download/plot Membership Grades & Access • Grade A (GPCs) :- Upload & Download Digital data(limited) - Download Image plots • Grade B (NMHSs, RCCs) : - Download Digital data(limited) & Image plots • Grade C (Others) : - Image plots Access to data is available for registered members only. LC-LRFMME Products GPC digital data and graphical products in standard format available from LC-LRFMME Digital products Digital products Graphical products Graphical products - Individual forecast plots for each GPC forecast anomalies in - Both forecast and hindcast of monthly me common graphical format (Rectangular, an anomalies of the GPC ‘s ensemble mean Time series, Stereographic type, etc.) for lead 1~3), following the month of submis Consistency map sions SST Plume (Nino3.4 SST anomalies) 2m surface temperature - Deterministic Multi-model Ensemble Precipitation Simple composite mean(SCM) Mean sea level pressure Regular Multiple Regression 850hPa temperature Sigular Value Decomposition(SVD) 500hPa geopotential height Sea surface temperature - Probabilistic Multi-model Ensemble tercile-based categorical probabilities Products Ⅰ: 6 Parameters 500hPa GPH 850hPa Temperature Mean Sea Level Pressure Precipitation 2m Temperature Sea Surface Temperature Products Ⅱ: 12 GPCs Beijing CPTEC ECMWF Exeter Melbourne Montreal Moscow Pretoria Tokyo Toulouse Washington Seoul Products Ⅲ: Period April May Forecast Time • Monthly mean • 3-month mean June AMJ Products Ⅳ: Map Types Rectangular Time Series Stereographic All Map Consistency Map SST Plume Products Ⅴ : Indices AO MME Plot of LC-LRFMME Simple MME MME Production : Deterministic MME Biased-Corrected Ensemble Mean Regular Multiple Regression Singular Value Decomposition MME Production : Probabilistic MME Since June 2011, categorical probabilities for terciles based on the Probabilistic Multi Model Ensemble (PMME) prediction system have been synthesized. Activities of LC-LRFMME Support for epidemic control In the winters of 2007 and 2008 Support for RCOFs In the spring of 2009 PRESAO, GHACOF, FOCRAII WMO LC-LRFMME Training Improvement of Meteorological Disaster Responsiveness for African Countries (May 2009) Climate Variability and Predictions in South Asia, Eastern and Southeastern Africa (June 2009) climate prediction for the African region WMO, IRI, SADC Drought Monitoring Centre Summary LC-LRFMME established by GPC-Seoul and GPC-Washington is fully functional and meets the requirements set by the “Expert Team on Extended and Long-Range Forecasts (ET-ELRF)” LC-LRFMME standardizes GPCs’ data for better usage of WMO Members and has already entertained requests from RCOFs LC-LRFMME would be a valuable asset to the long-range forecast communities LC-LRFMME makes an important contribution to increasing the resources available for disaster prevention and mitigation, and for better social-economic planning www.themegallery.com Thank you!