Transcript Estimating migration in a region of the UK – the potential of administrative data sources UNECE meeting - Edinburgh 20 Nov 2006 Robert Beatty.

Estimating migration in a region
of the UK – the potential of
administrative data sources
UNECE meeting - Edinburgh
20 Nov 2006
Robert Beatty
Outline of talk
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Northern Ireland
How important is migration in
Northern Ireland?
The UK International Passenger Survey
Administrative sources
The future
How important is migration to
Northern Ireland?
Size
percentage
1.7 million
100
Births
+22,000
+1.3%
Deaths
-15,000
-0.9%
Out migration
-20,000
+1.2%
In migration
+20,000
+1.2%
Net migration
0
0
+7,000
+0.4%
Population
All causes
How important is migration to
Northern Ireland?
Size
percentage
1.7 million
100
Births
+22,000
+1.3%
Deaths
-15,000
-0.9%
Out migration
-20,000
+1.2%
In migration
(2005)
+20,000
(+27,000)
+1.2%
(+1.6%)
Net migration
0
0
+7,000
(+14,000)
+0.4%
(+0.8%)
Population
All causes
(2005)
Estimates of Net Migration in Northern
Ireland (1973/74-2004/05)
8,000
EU Expansion
6,000
Ceasefire
4,000
Population Gain
0
-2,000
Population Loss
-4,000
-6,000
-8,000
-10,000
-12,000
2003-2004
2000-2001
1997-1998
1994-1995
1991-1992
Year
1988-1989
1985-1986
1982-1983
1979-1980
1976-1977
-14,000
1973-1974
Net Migration Level
2,000
UK International Passenger
Survey (IPS)
• Main data source to estimate migration at the
UK level
• Several thousand emigrants & immigrants
sampled each year
• But no sampling points in Northern Ireland
• About 10 sampled immigrants and 10 sampled
emigrants each year state “Northern Ireland”
as origin or destination
Need for administrative data
• UK IPS too small at regional level
• Also have land border with Ireland
• So rely on administrative data
Main source – registration
with Health Service
• Any contact leads to registration
• Registration fairly complete (time lags?)
• Procedures broadly in line with UN
definition of long-term migration
• Is a process of de-registration
• Estimates validated against Census of
Population and other sources
Registration with Health
Service - weaknesses
• Females more likely to register in timely
fashion
• De-registration not complete
• Adjustments made for above
• Not able to measure short-term / migrant
labour moves
Other administrative sources
• Worker Registration Scheme (A8
countries)
• Work permits (non-EU countries)
• National Insurance Numbers
• Births to foreign-born mothers
• Children without English as first
language
• Need for translation services
Worker Registration Scheme
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Allows A8 citizens to work in UK
427,000 to June 2006
16,000 in Northern Ireland
But ..
Counts on way in only, not on way out
Employees only, not self-employed or
dependents
Administrative data
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Plenty of data sources
But all incomplete / partial
Lots of “counts in”
Few “counts out”
Limited information on length of stay
Current challenges
• Trying to reconcile administrative
sources
• Get coherent picture
• Need for longitudinal data
• Need for data on short term migration
and migrant labour
The future?
• Initially only UK, Ireland & Sweden
opened labour markets to A8
• 2007 – Bulgaria & Romania
• Balkan states / Turkey?
• Political / economic / migration policies?
-5
Year
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
UK Net
1996/97
15
1995/96
1994/95
1993/94
Net Migration per 1,000 Population
UK and RoI Net Migration per 1,000 Population
20
RoI Net
NI Net
10
5
0
Report detailing the research presented has been
published on NISRA website
www.nisra.gov.uk
The end
Thank you.