Transcript Global Forest Products Market and Resource Trends Ed Pepke, Ph.D. Forest Products Marketing Specialist Food and Agricultural Organization UN Economic Commission for Europe Geneva, Switzerland Small Log.

Global Forest Products Market
and Resource Trends
Ed Pepke, Ph.D.
Forest Products Marketing Specialist
Food and Agricultural Organization
UN Economic Commission for Europe
Geneva, Switzerland
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Contents
I.
Forest products markets
•
•
•
•
Production, consumption & trade
Global
Regional (N. America, Europe, Asia)
Market sectors (logs, lumber, panels)
II. Forest resources
III. Certification and certified forest products
IV. Growing the market
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Major info sources
• UNECE/FAO TIMBER database on forest products
• FAOSTAT database on forest products
• UNECE/FAO Temperate & Boreal Forest Resources
Assessment
• FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment
• UNECE Timber Committee market forecasts
• UNECE/FAO Timber Bulletin “Forest products annual
market review, 2003-2004”
• Global Forest Products Model, by Buongiorno, et al.
• UNECE/FAO European Forest Sector Outlook Study
• FAO State of the World’s Forests, 2005
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I. Forest products markets
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Sectoral analysis: Logs
UNECE/FAO definitions:
• “Roundwood” is industrial roundwood + fuelwood
• “Industrial roundwood” as sawlogs, veneer logs,
pulp logs and other industrial roundwood
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World production of roundwood, 1961-2003
4.0
3.5
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
Billion m3
3.0
Industrial roundwood
Fuelwood
Source: FAOSTAT
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World roundwood utilization as fuel
• Over half used as fuel
– Domestic heating
– Cooking
• Mostly in developing
countries
• Low value
• Modern wood energy
– Small international trade
– Growing market
– Policy push in Europe
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Regional production of industrial roundwood,
1961-2010
2000
1800
1600
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
Africa
Asia
America
10
20
00
20
97
19
94
19
91
19
88
19
85
19
82
19
79
19
76
19
73
19
70
19
67
19
64
19
61
0
19
Billion m3
1400
Europe
Source: FAOSTAT and FAO Global Forest Products Outlook Study
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American industrial roundwood consumption
and production to 2010
1000
900
800
Million m3
700
600
Consumption
Production
500
400
300
200
100
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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American industrial roundwood trade to 2010
35
30
Million m3
25
20
Exports
Imports
15
10
5
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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Factors affecting models and markets
•
•
•
•
•
•
Gross domestic product (GDP)
Population
Costs and prices (labor, raw material, etc.)
Technological change
Government policies
Socio-economic trends
Source: FAO Global Forest Products Consumption, Production, Trade and
Prices: Global Forest Products Model Projections to 2010. By Zhu, S;
Tomberlin, D; Buongiorno, J., 1998
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European industrial roundwood
consumption and production to 2010
600
500
Million m3
400
Consumption
Production
300
200
100
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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European industrial roundwood trade to 2010
80
70
Million m3
60
50
Exports
Imports
40
30
20
10
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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Asian industrial roundwood consumption &
production to 2010
600
Million m3
500
400
Consumption
Production
300
200
100
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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Asian industrial roundwood trade to 2010
80
70
Million m3
60
50
Exports
Imports
40
30
20
10
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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Regional trade, all primary forest products, 2003
80
70
60
$ Billion
50
40
30
20
10
a
S
.A
O
ce
an
i
ca
fri
C
m
A
er
IS
a
ic
a
si
Imports
A
Exports
N
&
C
A
E
m
ur
er
ic
op
a
e
0
Source: FAOSTAT
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North American trade, all primary
forest products, 1994-2003
25
Billion $
20
15
10
5
0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Canadian imports
Canadian exports
1999
2000
2001
USA imports
USA exports
2002
2003
Source: FAOSTAT
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European primary wood products demand,
1980-2020
1200
Million m3, RWE
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
RWE=RoundWood Equivalent.
Source: European Forest Sector Outlook Study, 2005.
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Major influences on current
European forest sector
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Expanding markets, but resources outgrowing markets
Intensifying trade
Recovery from transition to market economies
Non-wood forest products increasing demand, value
Renewable energy policy of EU and member countries
Globalization of forest products trade
Innovation of products and processing
Recycling of paper, use of byproducts
Source: UNECE/FAO European Forest Sector Outlook Study, 2005
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Sectoral analysis: Lumber
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N. American softwood lumber market, 1996-2005
130 000
1000 m3
120 000
110 000
100 000
90 000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Production
Consum ption
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
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N. American softwood lumber trade,
1996-2005
50 000
1000 m3
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
1996
1997
1998 1999
2000
Im ports
2001
2002
2003 2004
2005
Exports
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
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N. American hardwood lumber market,
1996-2005
35 000
1000 m3
32 000
29 000
26 000
23 000
20 000
1996
1997 1998
1999
2000 2001
Production
2002
2003 2004
2005
Consum ption
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
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N. American hardwood lumber trade,
1996-2005
5 000
1000 m3
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Im ports
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Exports
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
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American lumber consumption & production
to 2010
300
Million m3
250
200
Consumption
Production
150
100
50
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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American lumber trade to 2010
80
70
Million m3
60
50
Exports
Imports
40
30
20
10
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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US lumber imports: Europe & S. Hemisphere
3.5
3
Million m3
2.5
2
1.5
Europe
S. Hemisphere
1
0.5
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Sources: USDA-Foreign Ag. Svc. and Wood Markets Monthly, 2005
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US lumber imports: Europe & S. Hemisphere
• Excludes Canadian imports
– 98% of US imports in ’96, but 87% 2004
– Canadian-sourced imports up 8% 2004
• Aided by Softwood Lumber Agreement duties
• Imports of dimension softwood, some EWPs
• European-sourced imports
– Increased 52% in 2004
– Despite 45% rise in euro value vs. $
– “Semi-natural forests” vs. plantation
Sources: USDA-Foreign Ag. Svc. and Wood Markets Monthly, 2005
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US lumber imports: Europe & S. Hemisphere
•
Northern hemisphere sources in 2004
1.
2.
3.
4.
•
Germany (up 73%)
Austria (up 75%)
Sweden (down 2%)
Czech Rep., Lithuania, Russia, Finland, Estonia
Southern hemisphere sources in 2004
1.
2.
3.
4.
Brazil (up 37%)
Chile (up 35%)
New Zealand (down 3%)
Argentina, Mexico, other
Sources: USDA-Foreign Ag. Svc. and Wood Markets Monthly, 2005
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European softwood lumber market,
1996-2005
110 000
1000 m3
100 000
90 000
80 000
70 000
60 000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Production
Consum ption
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
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European softwood lumber trade,
1996-2005
50 000
1000 m3
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
1996
1997
1998 1999
2000
Im ports
2001
2002
2003 2004
2005
Exports
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
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European hardwood lumber market,
1995-2004
20
Million m3
18
16
14
12
10
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Production
2001
2002
2003
2004
Consumption
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
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European hardwood lumber trade,
1995-2004
10
Million m3
8
6
4
2
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Imports
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Exports
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
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Europe lumber consumption and production
to 2010
140
120
Million m3
100
80
Consumption
Production
60
40
20
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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Europe lumber trade to 2010
50
45
40
Million m3
35
30
Exports
Imports
25
20
15
10
5
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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Russian softwood lumber market, 1996-2005
25 000
1000 m3
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
1996
1997 1998
1999
2000 2001
Production
2002
2003 2004
2005
Consum ption
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
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Russian softwood lumber trade, 1996-2005
12 000
10 000
1000 m3
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Im ports
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Exports
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
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Asia lumber production and consumption to 2010
180
160
Million m3
140
120
100
Consumption
Production
80
60
40
20
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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Asia lumber trade to 2010
30
Million m3
25
20
Exports
Imports
15
10
5
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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Sectoral analysis: Panels
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North America structural panel production,
1996-2005
25 000
1000 m3
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
1996
1997 1998
1999
2000 2001
OSB
2002
2003 2004
2005
Plyw ood
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
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European OSB market, 1996-2005
1000 m3
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
Production
2000
2001
Im ports
2002
2003
2004
2005
Exports
Source: UNECE Timber Committee forecasts, 10.2004
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America panel consumption & production to 2010
90
80
Million m3
70
60
50
Consumption
Production
40
30
20
10
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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America panel trade to 2010
18
16
Million m3
14
12
10
Exports
Imports
8
6
4
2
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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Europe panel consumption & production to 2010
70
60
Million m3
50
40
Consumption
Production
30
20
10
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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Increasing small log demand
•
•
•
•
For increasing panels production
Lumber production rising slower
For growing paper demand
For rising packaging demand
– Cardboard (paperboard)
– Pallets
• Wood-based energy
Main source: European Forest Sector Outlook Study, 2005.
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Europe panel trade to 2010
30
Million m3
25
20
Exports
Imports
15
10
5
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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Asia panel consumption & production to 2010
90
80
Million m3
70
60
50
Consumption
Production
40
30
20
10
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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Asia panel trade to 2010
35
30
Million m3
25
20
Exports
Imports
15
10
5
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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An aside on the
Chinese market
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China’s expanding trade
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Total export value 2003: $390 billion, +36%
Total import value 2003: 371 billion, +39%
Trade surplus: $20 billion
China & Japan 2003 trade: $120 billion, +31%
China & US 2003 trade: $114 billion, +29%
China & Europe 2003 trade: $112 billion, +43%
“Sudden growth” of primary product imports: timber,
steel, oil, soybeans
Source: “China Forest Products Market Information”, December 2003
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China’s booming timber imports
• Housing construction
– Only minority wood-based
– Green and healthy communities
– Affordable
•
•
•
•
Renovation market for houses and municipal
Infrastructure development
Interior woodwork and furnishings
Olympic-related construction (2008 Beijing)
Source: “China Forest Products Market Information”, 2003
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Sectoral analysis: Paper
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N. American paper & paperboard
consumption and production to 2010
200
180
Million Metric Tons
160
140
120
Consumption
Production
100
80
60
40
20
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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N. America paper & paperboard trade to 2010
45
Million Metric Tons
40
35
30
25
Exports
Imports
20
15
10
5
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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European paper & paperboard
consumption and production to 2010
160
Million Metric Tons
140
120
100
Consumption
Production
80
60
40
20
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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Europe paper & paperboard trade to 2010
70
Million Metric Tons
60
50
40
Exports
Imports
30
20
10
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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Asia paper & paperboard
consumption and production to 2010
180
Million Metric Tons
160
140
120
100
Consumption
Production
80
60
40
20
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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Asia paper & paperboard trade to 2010
40
Million Metric Tons
35
30
25
Exports
Imports
20
15
10
5
0
1980
1994
2000
2005
2010
Source: Global Forest Products Model, 2003
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New EFSOS market conclusions
• Collapse in CIS and eastern
Europe, 1990s
• Partial recovery
• Increased small log demand
• Increased recovered materials
• Intensifying trade
• Declining log prices
• Renewable energy
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Productivity in wood industry by region
90
$1000 per employee
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
North America
Western Europe
West and Central Asia
Developed Asia-Pacific
Latin America
Eastern Europe
Source: FAO Trends and current status of the contribution
of the forestry sector to national economies, 2004
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Summary: Key market issues (1 of 2)
• Illegal logging and trade of illegally-sourced wood
• Certification of sustainable forest management,
markets for certified forest products
• Policies for promotion of sound use of wood
• Research and development policies
• Industry competitiveness and investment policy
Source: Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2003-2004
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Summary: Key market issues (2 of 2)
• Global competition  Increased efficiency in
manufacturing, new marketing strategies
• Climate change policy, carbon trading
• Wood energy promotion policies
• Trade policy, tariff and non-tariff barriers
Source: Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2003-2004
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III. Forest resources
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Where are the forests?
Oceania
5%
N&C America
14%
Africa
17%
S. America
23%
Asia
14%
Europe
27%
Source: FAO State of the World’s Forests 2005
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Where are the plantations?
Oceania
2%
Africa
4%
N&C America
9%
S. America
6%
Europe
17%
Asia
62%
Note: Plantation area
not good indicator
of supply.
Source: FAO State of the World’s Forests 2005
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Where’s the wood?
Africa
12%
Oceania
3%
N&C America
17%
Asia
9%
S. America
29%
Europe
30%
Source: FAO State of the World’s Forests 2005
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Wood volume (m3) per hectare
Oceania
N&C America
55
Africa
123
72
• N&C America
– US 135 m3
– Canada 120 m3
– Guatemala 350 m3
• Oceania: NZ 125 m3
• S. America: Chile 160
• Europe
Asia
63
125
112
Europe
–
–
–
–
Switzerland 340 m3
Germany 270 m3
France 190 m3
Russia 105 m3
S. America
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Big logs in Switzerland
• 2nd highest wood volume per forest
– 340 m3 per hectare
– Only Guatemala higher at 355 m3
•
•
•
•
1/3 forested, mostly on higher ground
Why? Centuries of big log forest management
Not only lumber and beams, also protection
But…1999 windstorms
– Took tall, old, large diameter
– 2 years’ harvest in 3 days in Switzerland
– 1 year’s in all of Europe in 3 days.
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Small logs in Switzerland?
• Climate change  more windstorms, more storm
damage and windthrow
• Large logs cost more energy and time for
– Transportation and handling
– Conversion
• Reduced consumption of solid beams and wide
lumber
• Increased composite panels, edge-glued panels,
glulam and other EWPs
• European foresters changing “big log” mentality
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Annual change in forest area,
1990-2000, (million hectares)
Increase Net change
Deforestation in forest in forest
area
area
Tropics
-14.2
+1.9
-12.3
Nontropics
-0.4
+3.3
+2.9
World
-14.6
+5.2
-9.4
Source: FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000
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Global deforestation
of 14 million
hectares/year > ½ of
Idaho deforested
every year.
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Annual change in forest area,
1990-2000
3
2
Africa
Million Hectares
1
0
-1
N&C
America
Europe
Oceania
-2
-3
Asia
-4
-5
South
America
-6
Natural
Plantation
Total
Source: FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000
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Reasons behind deforestation
• Conversion to other land uses (0.4% of worlds’ forests
annually in the ’90s)
– Agricultural, including grazing
– Urbanization
• Unsustainable silvicultural practices
–
–
–
–
Unmanaged harvesting
Poor regeneration
Fire, insects and diseases
Overharvesting fuelwood
• Poverty and overpopulation
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Forest resources in N. America
• 80% of net annual increment harvested
• Forest volume increases ~3 million m3 daily
• Forest area 1990 to 2000
– USA +0.2%
– Canada, no significant change
Sources: State of the World’s Forests 2001;
Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000;
Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
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Forest resources in Europe
• Only 60% of wood grown is harvested
• Forest volume increases ~2 million m3 daily
• Forestland increases by 500,000 hectares per
year
Sources: State of the World’s Forests 2001;
Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000;
Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
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State of Europe’s Forests
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Resources and area increasing
Forest health and vitality are critical
Productive functions maintained
Biodiversity is a focus
Plantations are only 3%
Protective forests are 12%
Socio-economic functions important
Source: Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe, 2003
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New EFSOS forest conclusions
• Harvests < growth
• Growing stock rising
• Increased trade  local forest
problem
• Problems in economic viability
with falling prices
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Forest resources in Russian Federation
• Only 16% of wood grown is harvested
• Forest volume increases ~3 million m3 daily
• Forest area 1990 to 2000: no significant change
Sources: State of the World’s Forests 2001;
Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000;
Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
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Forest resources: growing stock
70
Million m3
60
50
40
s
30
20
10
0
Europe (41)
Growing stock
North America
Net annual increment
CIS
Fellings
Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
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Forest resources: NAI vs. fellings
1
0.9
0.8
Million m3
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Europe (41)
N. America
Net annual increment
CIS
Fellings
Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
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Forest resources: NAI vs. fellings
Fellings as
% of NAI
North America
80%
Europe-41
60%
Western Europe
64%
Nordic countries
72%
Baltic countries
50%
Central & eastern
Europe
56%
Russia
16%
Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
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Regional forest resource utilization
Wood in
forest
(billion m3)
Roundwood
harvest 2002
(million m3)
Roundwood
harvest
2002 (%)
117
439
0.4 %
Russia
89
192
0.2 %
N. America
60
678
1.1 %
Africa
46
613
1.3 %
Asia
35
1,005
2.9 %
Europe
28
395
1.4 %
Oceania
11
63
0.6 %
S & C America
Note: Not all “forest available for wood supply”
Roundwood does not include chips. Therefore, %ages are gross.
Sources: State of the World’s Forests 2003, FAO Stat.
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Forest resources summary
•
•
•
•
•
•
Removals considerably below growth
Wide variance in utilization rates of NAI
Growing stock increasing in Europe
Southern hemisphere plantations expanding
Oversupply compared to demand for wood
Increasing alternative demands on forests
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III. Certified forest products markets
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Certification of sustainable forest management
• Over 200 million hectares worldwide (5%)
• Over half of world’s certified area in N. America
• Another 40% in Europe
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Area of certified forests, 1996-2004
200
180
160
SFI
PEFC
FSC
CSA
ATFS
120
100
80
60
40
20
4
5/
20
0
3
20
0
5/
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
0
19
Million hectares
140
Source: Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2003-2004
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Top 8 countries certified forest area,
2003 and 2004
70
60
Million hectares
50
PEFC
FSC
SFI
CSA
ATFS
40
30
20
10
04
20
03
20
Au
st
ria
20
nd
la
Po
an
y
G
er
m
04
20
03
20
04
20
03
04
20
03
20
ay
rw
No
Sw
ed
en
20
04
20
03
20
04
20
03
an
d
A
US
Fi
nl
Ca
na
da
20
04
20
03
20
04
20
03
0
Source: Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2003-2004
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Certification schemes’ market share
ATFS
5%
Other
2%
PEFC
30%
CSA
15%
SFI
23%
FSC
25%
Source: Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2003-2004
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Certified forests by ownership type
Communal Other
2%
1%
NIPFO
23%
Industry
50%
State
24%
Three quarters of the world's certified
forests are privately owned or managed
Source: Savcore Indufor, 2005
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Certified forest products markets
•
•
•
•
•
Growing demand via wholesalers & retailers
Demand boost by government procurement
Private consumer demand remains minor
Chain-of-custody key current development
Most certified timber sold without label
– Potential over 300 million m3 (20% world roundwood
production)
– Lost opportunities for market promotion and PR
Source: Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2003-2004
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Certified forest products markets
• Certification system conflicts discredit forest products
in the marketplace
• Variety of schemes necessary for different
stakeholders’ interests
• Impacts of forest certification locally significant
• Difficulties in certifying natural tropical forests, but
less so for tropical plantations
• Markets developing slower than forest certification
Source: Savcor Indufor, 2005
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Certification
• Introduced to combat deforestation in tropics
• Most certified forests are temperate & boreal
• Therefore, not an instrument to combat
deforestation, but to promote sustainable forest
management
• Mutual recognition between schemes an issue
• Potential additional roles
– Verification mechanism in Kyoto Protocol
– Indication of source, but not proof of legality
Sources: Savcor Indufor, and UNECE/FAO, 2005
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IV. Growing the market
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Growing too much wood?
Not enough wood products demand?
What are the solutions?
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Grow the wood markets !
• Guarantee that today’s wood products meet
consumers’ needs
• Develop new products to meet evolving needs
• Develop new markets for wood products:
substitute for non-renewable materials
• Promote wood culture outside N. America and
Nordic Countries
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How can we grow
the wood markets?
• Build coordinated, international promotion
programs
• Enlarge existing networks and coalitions
• Create favorable policy environments
• Promote public awareness of key issues and
messages
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Market effects of wood promotion policies
• Multi-country wood promotion essential to enlarge
wood’s market share
• Promotion must be cost justified
• Identify and know target markets: cultural and
technical dimensions
• Fund raising a problem in fragmented industry
• Key elements: competence, neutrality, credibility,
resources
Source: UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2001-2002
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UNECE Timber Committee recommendations
• Develop new products to expand existing
markets
• Establish new markets to meet consumers’
needs
• Build international cooperation in promoting
environmental advantages of sustainable wood
production
• Promote wood culture
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Discussion and Questions
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Ed Pepke
Forest Products Marketing Specialist
UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
448 Palais des Nations
CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland
Telephone +41 22 917 2872
Fax +41 22 917 0041
[email protected]
www.unece.org/trade/timber
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