GENERAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS by Kit Prins Chief, Timber Section UN/ECE Trade Division Rome, 9-13 October 2000 TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth session EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION Thirtieth session.
Download ReportTranscript GENERAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS by Kit Prins Chief, Timber Section UN/ECE Trade Division Rome, 9-13 October 2000 TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth session EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION Thirtieth session.
GENERAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS by Kit Prins Chief, Timber Section UN/ECE Trade Division Rome, 9-13 October 2000 TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth session EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION Thirtieth session Structure of presentation • • • • Western Europe and North America Eastern Europe and CIS Housing Source: UN/ECE Economic Analysis Division Rome, 9-13 October 2000 TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth session EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION Thirtieth session Western Europe: • “the short term economic prospects for western Europe are currently better than at any time over the past decade” (UN/ECE July 200) • Export-led “virtuous circle” • Improved price competitivity due to decline in euro Rome, 9-13 October 2000 TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth session EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION Thirtieth session USA • Expansion longest on record (since 1991), continues: 2000 will be fourth successive year with growth > 4% • Looking for a “soft landing”, but strong growth continues • downside risks: unsustainable current account deficit, share price bubble, oil price Rome, 9-13 October 2000 TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth session EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION Thirtieth session Transition economies • Vigorous growth in 2000, due to import demand (W.Europe), rising commodity prices, payoff from systemic transformation • Despite recovery, living standards still low in most countries • CIS fastest growing sub region (+ 7.6%) • inflation, continued growth in unemployment Rome, 9-13 October 2000 TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth session EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION Thirtieth session Estimated GDP growth (% p.a.): 1999 2000 2001 W . E u rop e 2.0 3.5 >3 E . E u rop e 1.4 4.6 U SA 4.1 4.0 3.4 Rome, 9-13 October 2000 TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth session EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION Thirtieth session Construction • US housing starts August 2000 at 1.53 million. Still strong, but signs of slowdown in 2000/2001. • W. Europe: moderate growth expected for 2000, stability in 2001 • E. Europe: Strong growth in new residential construction in both years Rome, 9-13 October 2000 TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth session EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION Thirtieth session Euroconstruct forecasts for new residential construction 2 000 2 001 W .E urop e + 2 .5 + 0.4 E . E u rop e + 9.7 + 11 .9 Rome, 9-13 October 2000 TIMBER COMMITTEE Fifty-eighth session EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION Thirtieth session