Transcript MTB 09/27/05 The Future of the Future . Mark T. Brown September 27, 2005

MTB 09/27/05
The Future of the Future
.
Mark T. Brown
September 27, 2005
MTB 09/27/05
Connect threads...
INTELLECTUAL TAPESTRY something that is felt to resemble a
tapestry in its complexity;
MTB 09/27/05
Thread #1: Whats Education For?
courtesy of David Orr
"All my means are sane, my motive and
object mad.” Herman Melville's Captain Ahab
MTB 09/27/05
If today is like any other day...
We will loose…
116 mi2 Rainforest
72 mi2 to encroaching deserts
40- 250 species
MTB 09/27/05
If today is like any other day...
The human population will increase
by 250,000
We will add 2,700 tons of CFC’s
15 million tons CO2
Erode 75 million tons of top soil
MTB 09/27/05
By years end...
The area of rainforest lost will equal an area
the size of Washington State
Expanding deserts will have grown by an area
equal to the state of West Virginia
Global population will have increased by
90,000,000
We will have lost 20% of the species that
existed on the planet in 1900
MTB 09/27/05
This is not the work of ignorant people…
It is, rather, largely the result of the
work of the “most highly educated”
workforce in the history of humankind,
people with….
BAs…..
BSs…….
MEs…….
Ph.Ds…...
LLBs…...
MBAs, etc.
MTB 09/27/05
What is wrong?...
It is the result of an education system that
has failed us…..
An education that stresses
Abstraction not consciousness,
Answers instead of questions,
Reductionism instead of holism
MTB 09/27/05
Thread #2:
competing paradigms
“Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very
persistent one.” Albert Einstein
MTB 09/27/05
Two overlapping and incompatible
dichotomies…
Matter/energy ~ Money
Humanity
~ Nature
MTB 09/27/05
Matter-energy and the
Monetary Culture
Our present industrial civilization is handicapped by the
coexistence of two incompatible intellectual systems:
 the accumulated knowledge of the last four
centuries of the properties and
interrelationships of matter and energy; and
 the associated monetary culture which has
evolved from folkways of prehistoric origin.
MTB 09/27/05
Wealth stems from…
Resources
Money
MTB 09/27/05
Humanity and Nature
Civilization is further handicapped by the existence of
an incompatible metaphysical construct:
 Humanity is not natural, the artifacts of
humanity are “man-made”
VS..
 Nature is everything, including humanity.
MTB 09/27/05
Physical Laws of the Universe……
Only apply here…
Don’t apply here…
MTB 09/27/05
Thought patterns color reality…
To illustrate ...
MTB 09/27/05
How often do you say…what a beautiful SUNRISE?
MTB 09/27/05
Or that
you’re
going
upstairs…
MTB 09/27/05
In reality…
we know the sun does not
rise or set…
…and there is no
such thing as up or
down.
MTB 09/27/05
These world views lead to ….
Four somewhat overlapping,
incompatible paradigms
MTB 09/27/05
Humanity
Technocracy
Neoclassical Economics
Money
Energy
Ecological Economics
Biophysical Sciences
Nature
MTB 09/27/05
Economics…
Economics can be a beautiful instrument when
applied in its original meaning: to put the house
(oikos) of mankind in order. Herman Daly
MTB 09/27/05
Economics…
The money economy is only a part of the picture…
MTB 09/27/05
Thread #3:
A Growth Ethic…
“There are no great limits to growth because there are no
limits of human intelligence,
imagination, and wonder.”
(Ronald Reagan 40th president of US)
“Growth for the sake
of growth is the
ideology of the cancer
cell.”
- Edward
Abbey
MTB 09/27/05
MTB 09/27/05
Exponential Growth…
The failure to understand the concept of exponential growth by those
“in charge” may be the single biggest problem we face…
Doubling Time = 70/n years
Growth rate
3%
5%
7%
10%
D time
24 yrs
14 yrs
10 yrs
7 yrs
MTB 09/27/05
Exponential Growth…
Our ability and inclination
to enrich the present at
the expense of the
future, and of other
species, is as real and
sinful as our tendency to
further enrich the
wealthy at the expense of
the poor. Herman Daly
MTB 09/27/05
Thread #4:
Net Energy
“Like ice in a fire, something for nothing
you’ll never acquire.” Mr. Ryan (bulldog)
MTB 09/27/05
Net Energy…energy costs of obtaining energy
When the energy cost of
recovering a barrel of oil
becomes greater than the
energy content of the oil,
production will cease, no
matter what the monetary
price may be.
MTB 09/27/05
Net Energy…
We believe that to
maintain society’s
current level of
infrastructure and
information
processing, a net
energy of about 4/1
is required.
MTB 09/27/05
Net Energy…conventional sources
All declining…
MTB 09/27/05
Net Energy…so called renewable sources
MTB 09/27/05
Net Energy…
Net energy of
biomass is
barely 1/1
an
ce
oo
d
T
Ph
ol
ta
ic
ot
ov
n)
m
al
(c
or
he
r
s
ne
as
Bi
om
Et
ha
no
l
O
W
al
m
M
et
ha
ot
he
r
12
in
d
14
Ge
16
W
r
16
po
we
l
le
ha
er
0
id
a
S
)
A
)
Po
w
U
S
/b
bl
00
)
Net Energy Ratio
18
4
yd
ro
il
ar
O
le
uc
.
)
S
A
)
20
U
$
50
A
(A
vg
(@
U
S
S
)
2
6
Net Energy Ratio
N
l
Co
a
s
vg
.
N
19
53
sk
a
la
S
A
(A
vg
.
(A
U
8
T
(A
Im
po
rt
il
Ga
s
il
vg
O
(A
10
H
il
il
ra
l
O
at
u
O
N
O
MTB 09/27/05
Net Energy…
Net Energy of Non-Renewables
20
18
Net Energy of Renewables
20
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
MTB 09/27/05
Net Energy…
of the IRAQ invasion…
Weapons of Mass Distruction...
IRA Q Oil reserves
USA Def ense budget
USA Fuel Use
113 E9 bbl =
$348 E9/yr =
Cost of W ar
$100 E9 =
Reconst ruction/Peacekeeping $250 E9 =
Total cost
Benef it to Cost ratio
3.76 E25 sej
3.48 E23 sej
2.23 E23 sej/yr
1 E23 sej
2.5 E23 sej
3.5 E23 sej
376 E23 / 3.5 E23 ~ 100/1
MTB 09/27/05
MTB 09/27/05
Thread #5:
M.King Hubbert’s Bilp
“Humankind cannot stand very much
reality.” T.S. Elliot
MTB 09/27/05
Peak Oil…
“My analyses are based upon the simple
fundamental geologic fact that initially
there was only a fixed and finite amount
of oil in the ground, and that, as
exploitation proceeds, the amount of oil
remaining diminishes monotonically.”
M.King Hubbert
MTB 09/27/05
Peak Oil…
MTB 09/27/05
Peak Oil…
New discoveries are not keeping pace with demand
MTB 09/27/05
United States
Alaska
No matter how you cut
it…
the hydrocarbon age is
about over.
World
MTB 09/27/05
Peak Oil…
Global politics for the next two decades…
MTB 09/27/05
Thread #6:
Population
“The morality of an act is a function of the state
of the system at the time it is performed.”
(J. Fletcher, Situation Ethics. 1966)
MTB 09/27/05
Population…
issues are not so simple anymore
MTB 09/27/05
Global Population…
carrying capacity
MTB 09/27/05
Global Population…
Brain drain, globalization,
coastal crowding,
xenophobia and
discrimination, dying rural
towns…
Migration and urbanization
MTB 09/27/05
Global Population…
and environment
70 percent of the world's poor rely on the land
for income and subsistence.
MTB 09/27/05
Global Population…
and resources
Humans currently consume 20 percent more natural
resources than the earth can produce.
The impact of an
average North
American is double
that of a European, and
seven times that of
the average Asian or
African.
(WWF, October 2004)
MTB 09/27/05
Thread #7:
Models of Humanity and Nature
The sciences do not try to explain, they hardly even try
to interpret, they mainly make models which, describe
observed phenomena…
Johann Von Neumann
MTB 09/27/05
Models as visions…
Macroscopic Mini-models…
Used to overview theory
principles, and concepts…
and to test hypotheses
regarding how things work.
MTB 09/27/05
Models as visions…
The
Information
Era
A vision of the history of humanity modeled as a
succession of epochs
MTB 09/27/05
Models as visions…
Beyond the Limits by Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, and
Jorgen Randers, New York: Doubleday Press, 1992..
MTB 09/27/05
Models as visions…
Forester, J. 1971. World Dynamics. MIT Press, Cambridge.
MTB 09/27/05
Models as visions…
C3 functions:
Communication,
Computation,
and Control
Duncan, R.C. World Energy Production, Population Growth, and the Road to
the Olduvai Gorge. Population and Environment, May-June 2001, v. 22, n. 5.
MTB 09/27/05
The Tapestry…
OK, so lets put it all together…
Leslie White’s Law “Other
factors remaining constant,
culture evolves as the
amount of energy harnessed
per capita
per year is
increased…”
MTB 09/27/05
The Tapestry…
…So, then do we de-evolve with less energy?
There’s a good chance that the
energy with which we power our
technological civilization is peaking,
and there does not appear to be
alternatives.
(prudence would suggest that even
if you believe in a technological fix,
we should have a backup plan …just
in case)
MTB 09/27/05
The Tapestry…
After the peak…
Thoughts for transition
and descent…
MTB 09/27/05
The Tapestry…
1.
Environment
We must treat the environment not as a dumping ground,
but the source of all life.
2. Recycle should become the main strategy for dealing
with “wastes”
3. We will need to rebuild natural capital (forests, soils,
wetlands and water)
4. Discontinue ecological bigotry that calls some species
exotic, and undesirable..Use all of the earth’s
biodiversity in rebuilding global natural capital.
MTB 09/27/05
The Tapestry…Religion
1.
Religion must stress the larger scale issues such as
environment, capitalism, globalization, community, population
growth, war
2. Service and sacrifice must replace “rugged individualism” and
“growth is progress” ethic
3. We will need to include nature and the earth's energy
systems in our religious ethic.
4.
Sharing and a code of attitudes that includes pluralistic
respect for other faiths will be important
MTB 09/27/05
The Tapestry…Work
1.
Everyone needs to feel part of the society with sufficient
useful work contributing to productivity.
2. Cut wages across the board before laying off workers
3. Institute minimum and maximum wage reform
4. Achieve full employment of the
young and old through sliding pay scales
5. Tele-commuting where
possible
MTB 09/27/05
The Tapestry…Information
1.
TV needs moderation and focus on broader issues with some
optimal entertainment
2. TV is the global “campfire” and as such needs to focus on
shared ideas, purposes, and ethics.
3. Universities will need to once again
become society’s storehouse of
information, and its
generation, testing, and
selecting.
4. How much information is
appropriate?
MTB 09/27/05
The Tapestry…
Education
1. All education is environmental education, systems
education is a must.
2. A common core of knowledge in science, arts, civics,
and culture with flexibility built in for the rest.
3. Orient schools to stress different life themes, not
everyone needs to go to college
4. With reduced energy comes a
welcomed reduction in the
technology and “big sports” of
education… smaller schools
can result.
MTB 09/27/05
“As sometimes attributed to past cultures, people may
find glory in being an agent of the Earth. It remains to
be seen whether the social mechanisms will be conscious,
logical, emotional, ritualistic, regimented, or by some
means we can’t imagine.”
H.T. Odum, 2001