Transcript Scotland – Census and Household Estimates and Projections Esther Roughsedge, NRS Household Estimates and Projections branch BSPS: Estimating future household formation 16 December 2013

Scotland – Census and
Household Estimates and
Projections
Esther Roughsedge,
NRS Household Estimates and Projections branch
BSPS: Estimating future household formation
16 December 2013
Large changes in trends over the last 50 years
(not just an effect of economic downturn)
Household size in Scotland, 1961 to 2011
Percentage of all households
40%
1 person
35%
2 people
30%
25%
20%
3 people
15%
10%
4 people
5%
5+ people
0%
1961
1971
1981
1991
Year
2001
2011
Source: census
Annual increase in households
The rate of household growth
has slowed since 2007
26,000
24,000
22,000
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Annual increase in the number of households
in Scotland between 2002 and 2012
Start of global economic downturn
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Source: NRS household estimates
NRS household estimates and
projections
• Household estimates are based on
Council Tax figures.
• Household projections are based on
population projections, with household
trends projected from last 2 censuses.
– Included variant projections, including
‘alternative headship’ variant, projecting
lower household growth.
ands
Eilea
n Sia
East
r
Renf
rews
hire
Inve
rclyd
e
Renf
rews
hire
Ang
us
Wes
M
o
r
t Du
ay
nbar
tons
hire
Glas
gow
Sout
City
h La
n
arks
East
hire
Dun
barto
nshi
re
Nort
h Ay
r
s
h
Scot
ire
tish
Bord
Edin
e
rs
burg
h, Ci
ty o f
Nort
h La
nark
shire
Shet
land
Islan
ds
SCO
TLA
ND
East
Ayrs
h
ire
Aber
deen
shire
Wes
t Lot
hian
Pert
h&K
inros
s
Falk
irk
Aber
deen
City
Fife
High
land
East
Loth
ian
Sout
h Ay
rshir
Clac
e
kma
nnan
Dum
s
h
ire
fries
& Ga
llow
ay
Stirl
ing
Midl
othia
n
Dun
dee
City
Argy
ll & B
ute
Orkn
ey Is
l
•
•
Percentage difference
Council tax-based household
estimates vs 2011 Census
2011 Census estimate: 0.2% above the NRS household estimate
Difference between the mid-year household estimate and the census day
Most councils were within estimate
2% for 2011
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
Household estimate higher than census
Household estimate lower than census
Local authority
Household projections & census
Household size
40%
Percentage of all households
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1 person
2 people
3+ people
Household size
2001 Census
2011 Census
Household projections - principal (2011)
Household projections - alternative headship (2011)
Future plans
• Incorporate 3 censuses into the
projections, to reflect the changing
trends better.
• Produce projections from:
– 1991 and 2001
– 2001 and 2011
– Combine, weighting the figures.
• This allows us to make adjustments in
future projections, if appropriate.
Weightings - options
•
Could choose the weights that give closest
results to:
–
–
Survey figures on household types;
Household estimates.
•
Could try to minimise discrepancies
between estimates and projections at
council level.
•
Need to be able to justify how the weights
are devised.
Any questions?
Any comments would be very welcome!
For more info, contact:
[email protected]
Tel (0131) 3144251
www.nrscotland.gov.uk