Transcript United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Statistical Division UNECE Training Workshop on Census Questionnaire Design for SPECA member countries (Dushanbe, 12-16 March 2007) Census planning and.

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Statistical Division
UNECE Training Workshop on Census Questionnaire
Design for SPECA member countries
(Dushanbe, 12-16 March 2007)
Census planning
and budgeting
Paolo Valente (UNECE)
Content of presentation:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
The importance of census planning
Establishing a work plan
Setting up a financial outline
Preparation of the budget
Monitoring census operations
Controlling expenditures
07 November 2015
Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 2
NOTICE:

At the Baku Workshop, census planning and
budgeting was covered as part of the
presentation on “Overall census management”

This presentation moves from the basic
concepts presented in Baku and expands the
discussion on census planning and budgeting

Topics already covered in Baku are not repeated in
detail here. Participants who were not in Baku may
consult the presentation on “Overall census
management” (pres. 1) on the UNECE website:
http://www.unece.org/stats/documents/2006.10.census.htm
07 November 2015
Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 3
1. The importance of census planning
1.1 What is census planning

Census planning is the process linking
the different phases of the census cycle:
• Preparation
• Field operations
• Processing
• Dissemination
• Evaluation
07 November 2015
Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 4
1. The importance of census planning
The census cycle:

Each phase of the census cycle is dependent on a preceding phase
 The quality of the output from each phase has
a direct effect on the success of the next phase
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 5
1. The importance of census planning
1.2 Aim of the census planning process
The aim of the census planning process
is to ensure that:
1.Each phase is properly resourced and
organized
2.The output of each phase is of sufficient
quality for all subsequent phases
3.All dependencies between the different
phases are identified
07 November 2015
Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 6
1. The importance of census planning
1.3 Why census planning is important

Census planning is the most critical process
to the completion of a successful census
Why?
Inadequate planning may lead to underestimating
time and resources (financial, human, technical)
required for the different census phases
Inadequate planning may result in serious
problems in census operations that could not be
solved at a later stage, and could ultimately
affect the quality of census output
07 November 2015
Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 7
2. Establishing a work plan
2.1 Characteristics of the work plan
IMPORTANT:
Time is an essential dimension for good census
planning: Census planning should start AS
EARLY AS POSSIBLE before the census!
Census planning should not remain static but
be FLEXIBLE to take into account changes
that may occur during the census cycle
07 November 2015
Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 8
2. Establishing a work plan
2.2 Important issues to be considered
Issues to be considered when planning a census:
(a) Specifying the role of the census as part of the larger
National Statistical Programme
(b) Clarifying the role of Government:
•
•
•
Providing a legal framework for the census
Providing funding for the census
Providing logistical support for the census
(c) Setting census goals:
•
•
Identify stakeholders and their requirements
State priorities
These issues were discussed in detail at Baku workshop
(see pres. 1 on “Overall census management” on UNECE website)
07 November 2015
Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 9
2. Establishing a work plan
2.3 Developing the work plan
The census is a BIG project, which include a
number of projects dependent on one another.
 Need to develop a work plan with a hierarchical structure:

Projects (ex.: Field operations)
• Phases (ex.: Field mapping)
 Activities (ex.: Enumeration area design)
– Tasks (ex.: Prepare enumeration area design manual)
The work plan should also include:
Milestones: Specific points in time at which key outcomes
are expected (to measure project’s progress)
07 November 2015
Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 10
2. Establishing a work plan
2.3 Developing the work plan
Given the great number of specific activities, it is
practical to break down the general work plan into
more detailed work plans for the different projects
and phases of the census. Example:

•
•
•
field operations work plan
data processing work plan
training work plan
 It is of crucial importance to ensure the
necessary consistency of these work plans
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 11
2. Establishing a work plan
2.3 Developing the work plan
Project management software can be effectively
used to develop good and consistent work plans
Software can be commercial or developed in-house
 In the 2000 census round, 28 ECE countries
(2/3 of reporting countries) used management software:
- 18 countries used commercial software
- 11 countries developed software in-house
Source: UNECE Survey, 2004
See details in table 3.1 of UNECE Publication on 2000 Round of Censuses
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 12
2. Establishing a work plan
2.3 Developing the work plan
To develop the work plan, all components (projects, phases,
activities, tasks) must be identified at each level, and the
relative timetable defined
A top–down approach is recommended, moving from broad
components down to more detailed activities and tasks
Often several iterations may be needed to improve work plan
As long as framework develops:
1.people can be assigned responsibilities, and
2.reporting and review arrangements can be established
Need for coordination and communication among activities
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
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2. Establishing a work plan
2.3 Developing the work plan
Example of detailed work plan (by Australia),
with list of activities and relative timetable:
See Annex II of “Handbook on Census Management for
Population and Housing Censuses” on UNSD website
(http://unstats.un.org/unsd/pubs/):
“Example of a model census project timetable”
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
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2. Establishing a work plan
2.3 Developing the work plan
Extract from Annex II “Example of a model census project timetable”:
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
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2. Establishing a work plan
2.4 The Gantt chart
Useful tool for planning and monitoring: the Gantt chart
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 16
2. Establishing a work plan
2.4 The Gantt chart
Time frame in weeks, months or quarters
Activities
Visual representation of relations between activities
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
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2. Establishing a work plan
2.5 Assessing the duration of various activities
How to assess the duration of each activity?
 Use realistic information from previous
census or other similar operation
 The pilot census can provide good estimates,
but only if carried out under conditions closely
resembling the actual census
07 November 2015
Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 18
2. Establishing a work plan
2.5 Assessing the duration of various activities
Pay particular attention to activities that require
decisions to be taken at a very early stage
Example: Purchasing computers or other technical
equipment may require relatively long time (issue
call for tenders, selection, production, delivery)
 The scheduling of the work plan should allow for
ample time for all materials to arrive at their respective
destinations before they are actually needed
07 November 2015
Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 19
2. Establishing a work plan
2.5 Assessing the duration of various activities
Local conditions and transportation facilities
should be always taken into account
Example: Questionnaires and other materials
could get wet and spoiled in certain conditions,
in particular during winter and rainy seasons.
 Take necessary measures to minimise the risk that
printed material is exposed to the danger of getting wet and
spoiled during transport and storage. Printing should not be
completed too long before the material is required.
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 20
2. Establishing a work plan
2.6 Assessing the amount of work
As part of the work plan, the amount of work in
physical terms should be assessed for each activity
Example for field enumeration: the amount of work can be
measured by the number of households to be enumerated
and the average time needed to enumerate an household
 This information is required for estimating the
number of enumerators required in order to accomplish
the operation within the time scheduled in the work plan
The assessment of the number of field staff (enumerators,
supervisors, managers) was discussed in detail at Baku workshop
(see pres. 7 on “Staff recruitment” on UNECE website)
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 21
2. Establishing a work plan
2.6 Assessing the amount of work
Example for data entry: the amount of work can be
measured in terms of the number of questionnaires to be
entered (or scanned)
 This information is required for estimating the number of
data entry machines (or scanners) and operators required
See Annex V of “Handbook on Census Management for
Population and Housing Censuses” on UNSD website
(http://unstats.un.org/unsd/pubs/):
“Time and equipment estimations for manual census data
entry and scanner census data entry”
07 November 2015
Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 22
2. Establishing a work plan
2.6 Assessing the amount of work
Information on the expected amount of
work in physical terms for each activity
is also needed for monitoring the rate of
accomplishment of specific activities,
so that timely action can be taken in case
delays are detected
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
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2. Establishing a work plan
2.7 Risk management
 Work plans should also deal with risk management
Which risks?  All possible events that could occur and
have a negative impact on the success of the census
Risks with significant likelihood should be managed explicitly
by developing fully detailed plans parallel to the census plan
Risk management is essential because of the importance of
the census and the fact that it is an infrequent exercise
 The success or failure of the census may depend on the
implementation of the plans associated with these risks if
they occur
07 November 2015
Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 24
3. Setting up a financial outline
3.1 Assigning costs to activities
From the work plan a financial outline
can be drawn up by
assigning costs to specific activities
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 25
3. Setting up a financial outline
3.2 Different kinds of costs
Two kinds of costs should be distinguished:
i. Those for which the total cost derives directly from the
product of a unit cost and a physical quantity
Example: If N computers are required for data entry at
US$ X each, the total cost would be: (US$ X) * N
ii. Those for which the cost is either a flat rate or a nonlinear function of the quantity
Example of flat rate: The honorarium of an expert
Example of non-linear function: printing costs, with fixed cost
+ variable costs where unit costs may decrease with quantity
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
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3. Setting up a financial outline
3.3 Estimating the costs
The assessments of costs (flat rate,
linear on non-linear function) should be
based on realistic price estimates
obtained from previous experiences
(previous census, pilot census) or by
experts or providers of goods and services
Example: estimates from printers for printing costs
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 27
3. Setting up a financial outline
3.3 Estimating the costs
If expenditures for previous census are used as
a base, they should be corrected for:
- Increased costs (ex.: salary increases, inflation)
- Decreased costs or efficiency gains (ex.: new technology)
- Policy changes
- Population increase
Very important to estimate salary costs (largest component)
For estimating staff costs for enumeration and data processing,
see Ch.III sec.B and Ch.IV sec.C of “Handbook on Census
Management for Population and Housing Censuses” on UNSD
website (http://unstats.un.org/unsd/pubs/)
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 28
4. Preparation of the budget
4.1 From the financial outline to the budget
The budget can be set up directly from the
financial outline by aggregating costs of specific
activities according to the financial time schedule

The budget normally should be prepared in
accordance with the regulations of the
government, and the standard set forth by the
authorities empowered to approve and appropriate
the funds

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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
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4. Preparation of the budget
4.2 General issues on the census budget
IMPORTANT: The census budget MUST:
1) Be prepared well in advance
2) Cover ALL known activities
3) Allocate sufficient resources to
each phase
 Funds allocated and used effectively on
planning and preparation will result in
savings in all other phases, namely in
enumeration and processing operations
07 November 2015
Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 30
4. Preparation of the budget
4.2 General issues on the census budget
REMEMBER to allocate sufficient resources
to the dissemination phase
 The users will judge the census on the ability to
deliver the data on time and in the way desired
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
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4. Preparation of the budget
4.2 General issues on the census budget
 In the 2000 census round, ECE countries spent on
average only 5% of their census budget for publication,
dissemination and documentation
 23 countries (2/3 of reporting countries) spent less
than 3%!
Source: UNECE Survey, 2004
 Detailed information on census costs in the 2000
census round is available in the UNECE Publication
on the 2000 Round of Censuses (Part I, Ch. 4)
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
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4. Preparation of the budget
4.2 General issues on the census budget
Other issues to consider:
The census budget is highly cyclical (peaks during
enumeration and processing)

The census budget should have built in some
contingency allowance for unexpected expenses

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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
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4. Preparation of the budget
4.3 Level of detail
The census budget should be detailed enough
to permit easy examination and/or review and
subsequent approval by officials concerned

The census budget is generally less detailed than
the financial outline

 Example: all salaries and wages could be regrouped by
year even if the staff requirements of the census vary largely
over the census cycle
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
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4. Preparation of the budget
4.3 Level of detail
In large countries with socio-economic conditions
varying from province to province, for some items
a budget could be prepared for each province
separately. They could be then pooled together to
arrive at a country budget

Example: If transport and communication facilities may not
exist uniformly in all the provinces, separate estimates of
travel and transport costs could be made for individual
provinces
07 November 2015
Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 35
5. Monitoring census operations
5.1 Monitoring the work plan
Developing a good census work plan is
important, but not sufficient!
 The work plan must be MONITORED
closely and on a regular basis, and
feedback be delivered to all levels of
management
07 November 2015
Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 36
5. Monitoring census operations
5.1 Monitoring the work plan
The review should be conducted at least each
quarter, but in the crucial period (field work) a
continuous day-to-day review is recommended
Most important components to monitor are:




Time for completing a task
Resource usage per task
Cost per task
Milestones
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 37
5. Monitoring census operations
5.1 Monitoring the work plan
 All deviations from planned schedule, costs
and resources should be analysed and the
impact assessed
 Any delay occurring along any line of activity
could have a chain reaction in the subsequent
activity of the programme, affecting both work
plan and budget
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 38
5. Monitoring census operations
5.2 Modifying the work plan
Ideally, the work plan should remain unchanged
However…
…in some cases it may be necessary to
make changes to the plan and timetable
Example: If it is estimated that a key task leading to
a milestones cannot be completed in the planned
time, then the task must be extended and the work
plan modified
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
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5. Monitoring census operations
5.2 Modifying the work plan
Whenever the work plan is modified:
 All possible implications of the changes
on the other components of the work plan and
on the budget should be carefully considered
 All key personnel potentially affected by the
changes should be promptly informed
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 40
6. Controlling expenditures
6.1 Monitoring the census budget
Monitoring the census budget is fundamental
 This would allow to identify on time possible
over-expenditures and shortfalls, and take
appropriate measures
Two levels of monitoring:
1) Every month (or at least every quarter): monitor
expenditures against funding for each project
2) Every year: Monitor total yearly expenditures
against the estimates of expenditures for all years of
the census cycle prepared in advance
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 41
6. Controlling expenditures
6.2 Expenditure control procedures

Given the large amount of expenditure involved in
a census, some control procedures have to be
introduced to ensure the efficient use of funds

Often a system of expenditure control
procedures is designed and put in place by the
funding agency

It is important to prepare complete and clear
guidelines on financial policies and procedures
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
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6. Controlling expenditures
6.3 Control of flows of funds to field offices
For a census office which usually operates through
its field personnel at various administrative levels, an
efficient cost and control system should be set up
to ensure an easy control of the flows of funds
from the central office to the field offices
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 43
6. Controlling expenditures
6.3 Control of flows of funds to field offices
Example:
The central office issues fund allotments for a census
administrative area, such as a provincial office

The province then sub-allots amounts to the different
areas under its supervision for their operational expenses,
broken down as required (for instance: salaries and
wages, travelling expenses, supplies and materials, etc.)
 Field staff should be able to draw an amount, depending
on the needs of the office, for the quarter but not beyond
the cash ceiling allowance for that particular item
of operating expenses

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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 44
6. Controlling expenditures
6.4 Keeping account of expenditures
 The budget staff of the central office should keep
a regular account of fund disbursements,
reflecting all types of expenditure incurred
 The account should also show on a current basis
the amount spent for a project together with the
unspent balance
 It is useful to adopt of a coding system whereby
every type of expenditure is identified with a code
number
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
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6. Controlling expenditures
6.5 Progress reports on expenditure and output
A prerequisite for establishing expenditure control
is the availability of information on expenditure
incurred and the corresponding output of work
Progress reports should be prepared at regular
intervals (for instance: once a month)
Progress reports should be compatible with the
form in which both the work plan and the financial
outline have been prepared
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 46
6. Controlling expenditures
6.5 Progress reports on expenditure and output
Progress reports should include information on:
1) Expenditure incurred
2) Corresponding output achieved
…and if possible also on:
3) Outputs expected to be achieved in the
subsequent month
4) Outputs expected to be achieved in the current
year as a whole
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Paolo Valente - UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 47