Transcript Pertemuan 14 NERACA PEMBAYARAN, HUTANG LN, INVESTASI ASING & KEUANGAN INTERNASIONAL The Balance of Payments Account   General considerations A hypothetical illustration: deficits and debts.

Pertemuan 14
NERACA PEMBAYARAN,
HUTANG LN, INVESTASI
ASING & KEUANGAN
INTERNASIONAL
The Balance of Payments
Account
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General considerations
A hypothetical illustration: deficits and
debts
HUTANG LN
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Transfer outflow: cicilan & bunga (To)
Transfer inflow: bantuan/pinjaman
baru (Ti)
Net tranfer (NT) = Ti – To
Th ‘81: NT NSB ke NM +US35,1M
(aliran ke NSB)
Th ‘86: NT NSB Vs NM -US30,7M
Third World Debt Crisis
Net capital inflow, FN, is
FN  dD
(14.1)
Basic transfer, BT, is
BT  dD  rD  (d  r ) D
Where
(14.2)
d is percent increase in total debt
D is total debt
r is the average interest rate
PENYEBAB NEGATIF NET
TRANFER
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Cicilan dan bunga pinjaman
Capital flight (-)
Foreign direct investment
Bantuan LN
Hibah multirateral
PENANAMAN MODAL ASING &
PERSH MULTINASIONAL
Two
sources:
– Private direct and portfolio investment
– Public and private development assistance
AS
paling banyak persh raksasa, diikuti
jepang, jerman, Inggris, Prancis, Korsel
Di NSB awalnya pada industri ekstraktif
dan primer; minyak bumi, logam,
perkebunan
Multinational Corporations:
Size, Patterns, and Trends
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MNCs are typically very large
Private foreign investment: pro dan
contra for development
Pendukung Investasi Asing
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mengisi kesenjangan Invest-tabungan
(saving gap) (model Harrod-Domar) G
= s/k (s tabungan; g pertumbuhan
output/GNP, k rasio modal-output)
Kesenjangan devisa (Trade gap)
Mengisi gap pajak-RAPBN
Gap manajemen, teknologi,
kewiraswastaan: dg investor asing
Penentang PMA
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Alasan ekonomi: menghalangi perluasan persh
DN; mempertinggi impor barang setengah jadi;
fasilitas PMA berlebihan mengurangi penerimaan
pajak, ketrampilan asing yg ditularkan kecil
Filosofis, ideologis: ketidakmerataan makin tinggi,
mendorong konsumsi mewah, dg teknologi tinggi
(tdk menyerap TK), SD DN dialokasikan pada
proyek yg kurang profitable, kekuatan MNA
pengaruhi kebijakan, menekan semangat
wiraswasta lokal; menyuap pejabat (korupsi
tinggi)
Foreign Aid: The Development
Assistance Debate
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Conceptual and measurement
problems
Amounts and allocations: public aid
Why donors give aid
BANTUAN LUAR NEGERI
 Tujuan
bantuan non-komersial
 Syarat konsesional: suku bunga dan jangka
waktu pengembalian lunak
 Hibah harus dibedakan dengan pinjaman
 Bantuan dg syarat, utk membeli barang2
negara donor; atau utk proyek tertentu
(irigasi, penghijauan dlsb) mengurangi
kadar bantuan
 Nilai nominal dibedakan dgn riil (inflasi)
Motivasi negara donor
memberi bantuan
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Politik: Amerika membantu eropa
(marshall plan) utk mencegah komunis
Ekonomi: kesenjangan tabungan dan
kesenjangan devisa:
– SD produktif (TK) berlebih devisa utk
impor barang investasi
– SD produktif kurang, devisa utk impor
barang konsumsi mewah, memicu inflasi
Foreign Aid: The Development
Assistance Debate
The two-gap model:
savings constraint
I  F  sY
Where
I is domestic investment
F is the amount of capital inflows
s is the savings rate
Y is national income
Foreign Aid: The Development
Assistance Debate
The two-gap model:
foreign-exchange constraint
(m1  m2) I  m2Y  E  F
Where
I is domestic investment
F is the amount of capital inflows
E is the level of exports
Y is national income
m1 is the marginal import share
m2 is the marginal propensity to
import
Mengapa NSB menerima
bantuan donor
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Menerima pendapat ekonom:
mengatasi kelangkaan ekonomi,
membantu transformasi ekonomi scr
struktural, mendukung utk tinggal
landas ke ekonomi mandiri.
Alasan politik: bantuan uang, militer
Moral: NM punya kewajiban
membantu NSB krn pernah menjajah
Effek bantuan LN
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Substitusi thd investasi dan tabungan
(memperburuk tabungan)
Memperburuk neraca pembayaran
Lebih ke sektor modern, memperlebar
jurang kaya-miskin, sektor moderntradisionil
Conclusions: Toward a
New View of Foreign Aid
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Dissatisfaction among donors and
recipients may create the possibility
for new aid arrangements
Future aid is likely to be linked to
market reforms and institutional
capacity-building
Concepts for Review
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Amortization
Balance of payments
Basic transfer
Brady plan
Capital account
Cash account
Conditionality
Current account
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Debt-for-equity
swaps
Debt-for-nature
swaps
Debtors’ cartel
Debt repudiation
Debt service
Deficit
Euro
External debt
Concepts for Review,
cont’d
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Hard currency
International
reserve account
International
reserves
Macroeconomic
instability
Restructuring
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Special drawing
rights (SDRs)
Stabilization policies
Structural
adjustment loans
Surplus
Concepts for Review,
cont’d
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Absorptive capacity
Aid weariness
Concessional terms
Economic transition
Emerging-country
stock markets
Foreign aid
Foreign direct
investment (FDI)
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Foreign-exchange gap
Global factories
Multinational
corporation (MNC)
Nongovernmental
organizations (NGOs)
Official development
assistance (ODA)
Concepts for Review,
cont’d
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Portfolio investment
Productive
resources
Savings gap
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Technical assistance
Tied aid
Transfer pricing
Two-gap model