Transcript President Obama and the 112th Congress: Divided They Stand? Artemus Ward Dept. of Political Science Northern Illinois University [email protected] Clare Oaks January 26, 2011

President Obama and the 112th Congress:
Divided They Stand?
Artemus Ward
Dept. of Political Science
Northern Illinois University
[email protected]
Clare Oaks
January 26, 2011
2010 Mid-term Elections
• The Republicans gained control
of the House in 2010 and gained
more seats in the Senate,
enough to filibuster any
Democratic bill.
• House: Republicans (242),
Democrats (193).
• Senate: Democrats (51),
Republicans (47), 1
Independent; 1 Independent
Democrat.
• Speaker John Boehner (R-OH)
and Senate Minority Leader
Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will
have a great deal of leverage
with the White House to shape
the national agenda during the
next two years.
Obama to Press His Centrist Agenda
• In his Jan 25, 2011 State of the Union
address, Obama targeted his remarks
toward the political center, to independent
voters and business owners and
executives alienated by the expansion of
government and the partisan legislative
fights of the past two years.
• With the official unemployment rate
above 9%, Obama said: “My No. 1 focus
is going to be making sure that we are
competitive, and we are creating jobs not
just now but well into the future.” For
example, he mentioned overhauling the
corporate tax code and encouraging
exports.
The “New”
Obama?
• In his speeches, policy choices and personnel appointments,
Obama has signaled that after two years in which his response
to the economic crisis and his push for passage of the health
care bill defined him to many voters as a big-government liberal,
he is seeking to recast himself as a more business-friendly,
pragmatic progressive.
• That means emphasizing job creation, deficit reduction and a
willingness to compromise in a new period of divided
government.
• But it also means a willingness to make the case for spending
— or investment, as many in his party would prefer to call it — in
areas like education, transportation and technological innovation
when it can be justified as essential to the nation’s long-term
prosperity.
GOP Response
• Republicans have said that they would oppose
any new spending initiatives and press ahead
with their plans for budget cuts in every realm of
government, including the military.
• “With all due respect to our Democratic friends,
any time they want to spend, they call it
investment, so I think you will hear the president
talk about investing a lot,” Senator Mitch
McConnell, the Republican leader, said. “This is
not a time to be looking at pumping up
government spending in very many areas.”
Budget Deficits
Budget Deficit as % of GDP
National Debt
• The National debt is over $14 Trillion:
$14,071,814,402,934.91.
• The estimated population of the United States is
309,904,872
-- so each citizen's share of this debt is $45,406.87.
• The National Debt has continued to increase an
average of
$4.17 billion per day since September 28, 2007!
• Is this a problem? Is the solution to pay down the
debt, grow the economy, or both?
Biggest Holders of U.S. Debt
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
Federal Reserve system of banks and Intragovernmental Holdings: $5.4 trillion.
Other Investors/Savings Bonds (individuals, government-sponsored
enterprises, brokers and dealers, bank personal trusts, estates, savings bonds,
corporate and non-corporate businesses): $1.5 trillion.
China: $896 billion.
Japan: $877 billion.
Pension Funds (private and local): $706 billion.
Mutual Funds: $638 billion.
State and Local Governments: $512 billion.
United Kingdom: $512 billion.
Depository Institutions (commercial banks, savings banks, credit unions): $270
billion.
Insurance Companies (property-casualty/life insurance): $262 billion.
Oil Exporters (Ecuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait,
Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Gabon, Libya,
and Nigeria): $210 billion.
Brazil: $184 billion.
Caribbean Banking Centers (Bahamas, Bermuda, the Cayman Islands,
Netherlands Antilles, Panama and the British Virgin Islands): $146 billion.
Hong Kong: $140 billion.
*** As of Jan. 2011.
Debt Reduction
Commission
• Obama created a bipartisan debt reduction
commission and they proposed slashing projected
annual deficits through 2020 with deep cuts in
domestic and military spending, changes to Social
Security and Medicare, and an overhaul of the
individual and corporate tax codes to simplify them
and to raise additional revenues.
• Obama is unlikely to embrace the recommendations
and will instead focus on a middle course of
spending “investments” and “responsible” budget
cutting.
Other Issues
• The expansion of health
insurance coverage remains
unpopular with nearly half the
country. Though the GOP
House has passed a repeal
of the law, it is unlikely to
pass the Senate.
• Prospects for withdrawing
many troops from
Afghanistan later this year
(July?) remain uncertain at
best.
Conclusion
• Like Bill Clinton before him, President Obama finds
himself confronting an opposition Congress. And
like Clinton he is moving toward the center in order
to govern during the last two years of his first term
in office.
• Will the Republicans compromise with the
President – and perhaps therefore help him win
reelection – or will they block his agenda, pass bills
that he will veto, and work to make it difficult for him
to win a second term?
• Tea Party conservatives, led by Michele Bachmann
(R-MN) will undoubtedly make it difficult for the
GOP House leadership to compromise with
Obama.