Transcript European Wood-Based Panels Market Prospects UNECE Timber Committee Market Discussions 24-25th September 2002 Geneva, Switzerland By Mr.

European Wood-Based Panels Market Prospects
UNECE Timber Committee Market Discussions
24-25th September 2002
Geneva, Switzerland
By
Mr. Olli Koskiranta
Vice-President, Business Development
Finnforest Corporation
Contents

European Woodworking Industry & Companies

WBP* Consumption Structure in Europe

WBP Production, Prices & Consumption in Europe**
 Plywood
 OSB
 Particle board
 MDF

Market Observations in Europe vs. North America

Future Trends
* WBP is wood-based panels ** Including Russia
2
European woodworking industry excluding furniture

Production:
60 billion EUR/year

Workforce:
540 000 workers

Over 100 000 companies

Typical SME-sector, with many sub-sectors
3
Major Wood Working Industry Companies in Europe
Finnforest - Moelven
Egger
Sonae Industria
UPM-Kymmene Wood Products
Pfleiderer
Stora Enso Timber
Swiss Krono (est.)
Kronospan (est.)
Kunz (est.)
Frati (est.)
Finsa (est.)
Nexfor
Södra
Million €
AssiDomän
0
200
400
Solid Wood
Source: FF
600
800
Panels
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
EWP
Building systems
Other
4
Wood-based panels Consumption Structure in Europe
1990 - 2002
60
Other
fiberboard
50
MDF
Million m3
40
30
Particle
board
20
10
OSB
Plywood
Source: FF, FAO,UNECE, WPI
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
0
5
European Plywood Production & Consumption 1998-2003
7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
1997
1998
SW Ply Prod.
Sources: FF, FAO,UNECE, WPI,
1999
HW Ply Prod.
2000
2001
SW Ply Cons.
2002
2003
HW Ply Cons.
*HW plywood includes tropical,birch and other temperate plywood
6
Finnish Softwood & Birch Plywood Price Development
1990-2002
900
800
€/m3
700
600
500
400
300
200
FIN Birch Ply
Source: Finnish Customs
FIN SW Ply
7
European OSB Production, Price & Consumption 1998-2003
2 500
300
250
2 000
1 500
150
1 000
EUR/m3
1000m3
200
100
500
50
0
0
1998
Production
Sources: FF, FAO,UNECE, WPI
1999
2000
2001
Consumption
2002
2003
Est. Price av.*
8
European Particleboard Production, Price & Consumption
1998 - 2003
45 000
120
40 000
100
35 000
80
25 000
60
20 000
15 000
EUR/m3
1000m3
30 000
40
10 000
20
5 000
0
0
1998
1999
Production
Sources: FF, EPF, FAO, UNECE, WBI, *EUWID
2000
2001
Consumption
2002
2003
GER Price av.*
9
European MDF Production, Price & Consumption 1998-2003
12 000
220
215
10 000
210
205
200
195
6 000
190
EUR/m3
1000m3
8 000
185
4 000
180
175
2 000
170
0
165
1998
Production
Sources: FF, EPF, FAO, UNECE, WBI
1999
2000
2001
Consumption
2002
2003
UK Price av.*
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Engineered wood products and wood-based panels:
North America vs. Western Europe
North America (US+CDN)
Population
300 million1)
GDP
12 189 Billion EUR2)
Western Europe (EU-15+CH&N)
Population
390 million1)
GDP
8 815 Billion EUR3)
Wood-based panels:
Plywood
16,6 Mil. m3
OSB
19,3 Mil. m3
Particleboard
11,1 Mil. m3
MDF
4,4 Mil.m3
Total
51,4 Mil. M3
Wood-based panels:
Plywood
5 Mil. m3
OSB
1,6 Mil. m3
Particleboard
29 Mil. m3
MDF
7,5 Mil. m3
Total
43,1 Mil. M3
Engineered Wood Products:
LVL
1,5 Mil. m3
Glulam
0,8 Mil. m3
I-beams
270 Mil. linear m
Engineered Wood Products:
LVL
0,2 Mil. m3
Glulam
1,2 Mil. m3
I-beams
8 Mil. linear m
Sources: FAO, RISI, APA, Jaakko Poyry
1)=Census,
US&CAN; EU-15 + SUI&NO
2)=EUROSTAT
forecast
3)=EU-15
only (EUROSTAT forecast)
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European Plywood vs. MDF and OSB Consumption 1989-2001
MDF & OSB Consumption
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1,8
2,2
4,0
3,5
1989
2001
HW Plywood
Sources: FF, EPF, FAO, UNECE, WBI,
SW Plywood
Million m3
Million m 3
Plywood Consumption
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1,7
8,4
0,2
1,6
1989
MDF
2001
OSB
12
Plywood and OSB End Use Changes by Segments in USA
1989 - 2001
Plywood Consumption
19.6
20
18.6
15
14.4
10
5
0
3,5
15
13,0
10
5.5
5
+ 7.9
5,1
5,3
0
1989
Industry
New Building
Source: RISI
+ 2.0
Million m 3
Million m 3
20
OSB Consumption
2001
Renovation
1989
Industry
2001
Renovation
New Building
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Biggest European wood-based panels producers by capacity in
2001
M&P Kaindl/Kronospan
Sonae
Egger
Swiss Krono
Pfleiderer
Hornitex
Frati
Finsa
Nexfor
Unilin
Spano
Schauman
Kunz
Fantoni
Wyerhaeuser
Constantia
Finnforest
Plywood
Particleboard
MDF
Fibreboard
OSB
Total European
market 50 Mm3
0
Sources: FF, EPF, WBI,
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
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Future Trends




The role of Russia & former East-Europe as panel
producer is increasing – as is consumption in that area.
Manufacturing plants are growing in size and
simultaniously becoming multi-product manufacturing
centers
North American plywood will not be back to Europe,
Asian plywood decreases its volume and Central - and
South European plywood production will become niche
business.
Wood chip raw materials will increase in price
(regionally) due to the growing popularity of bio-energy
(subsidies).
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Future Trends







Price competition in bulk products
Competition by substitutes
Construction increasingly R&R
Demand shifts to DIY chains
Industry, distribution & customer consolidation
Building systems: Engineered Wood
Green values & recycling
Note! Demand and supply forecasting becomes more
and more relevant for investment and business –
Where to get reliable information and statistics?
16