Resilient Forests Managing for Productivity, Health, Wealth, and Resilience in the Face of Pervasive Change Hal Salwasser Oregon State University, College of Forestry Sun River, OR July.
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Resilient Forests Managing for Productivity, Health, Wealth, and Resilience in the Face of Pervasive Change Hal Salwasser Oregon State University, College of Forestry Sun River, OR July 21, 2005 What We’ll Cover Western deans’ vision for forests Forest values American forests in a global context Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead Our Vision for Forests Sustain and enrich human well being through diverse values, uses, products and services; Managed and conserved to meet changing needs based on local knowledge plus everimproving science and technologies; Serve current and future generations in sustaining our communities and rich cultural heritage. Forests that … Deliver high quality water Sustainably meet domestic needs for forest-based renewable resources Reward owners/stewards with multiple benefits Perpetuate biological and cultural diversity Ameliorate impacts of human activities Grow in extent, productivity, resilience Are managed for distinct local capabilities & values Restore human spirit and stewardship ethic Bring people together for common purpose Lands of Many Values Western deans’ vision for forests Forest values American forests in a global context Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead Forests are Sources of Life 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Clean water and air Abundant fish and wildlife Cultural heritage Climate and carbon Recreation and aesthetics Wood and fiber Non-wood forest products Jobs and personal identity Wealth and revenues Global Forest Context Western deans’ vision for forests Forest values American forests in a global context Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead Global Forces = Change Population growth: 6.3 Bil. in 2003 to ~ 8 Bil. in 2050 Technology: steady advances + breakthroughs Political instability: local to global, ballot measures to wars Trade: barriers/subsidies, free vs fair Industry restructuring: global integration, dynamics in timberland ownership, global capital Widening rich-poor gap: happening everywhere Raising of “green” consciousness: more than air/water Consumption growth: space, water, fossil fuels, food, wood, minerals Climate change: yes but variable, uncertain regional effects Non-native invasive species + explosive natives Pervasive Change Need for prudent risk taking, continual learning and adaptation Global Forest Trends Forest area: ~ 9.6 Billion ac; 50-66% loss since 1600 ce Forest loss: ~ 23 Million ac/yr in 1990s Population + Economic Growth = Forest Loss But not always: - 30 mil ac/yr in tropics, + 7 mil ac/yr in non-tropics Demands for forest benefits ever growing Water quality, quantity: biggest future forest issue Wood use: range = flat near term to < 0.5%/yr long term Biodiversity conservation: yes but public still bewildered after 20 years Carbon storage: how much, trees + products, market uncertainty Recreation, subsistence, cultural uses: highly variable by ownership Some Global Leaders 22 Forest Area: Russia Wood Volume: Russia 23 Wood Biomass: Brazil 27 24 Plantation Forests: China Solid Wood Produced: US 22 Solid Wood Used: US 30 Solid Wood Imports: US 30 Solid Wood Exports: Canada 32 0 UN FAO 2005: 2000, 2002 data 5 10 15 20 25 Percent of World Share 30 35 Global Plantation Forests EU 4.7 Brazil + Chile + NZ + SA + Australia 5.6 24 Russia + US + Japan 42 India + China 0 UN FAO 2005: 2000 data 10 20 30 40 Percent of World Share 50 Global & U.S. Wood Use Ind. wood use rose 40% since 1960: ~ 1.6 BM3 but flat over last 20 Fuel wood use > industrial wood use: ~ 1.8 BM3 and growing Ind. wood use could increase < 33% by 2050: from 1.6 - 2.1 BM3 ~ 75% of global wood and fiber will come from planted forests by mid century or earlier (Sedjo and others) ~ 31% of global solid wood consumption crosses an international boundary from tree to product; most likely to increase US imports 31% of solid wood products consumed; exports associated jobs & impacts (81% growth since 1991) US uses 30% of world’s solid wood products; largest per capita US forest and wood choices drive global wood market UN FAO 2005: 2002 data + Perez-Garcia on future demand US in Global Context People 4.7 Forest Land 5.8 Wood Volume in Forests 8 Plantion Forests 8.6 Reserve Forest 9 Solid Wood Produced 22 Solid Wood Used 30 Solid Wood Imported 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Percent of World Share (UN FAO 2005: 2000, 2003 data) Oregon in US Context People 1.2 Land 2.6 Forest Land 3.7 Reserve Forest 11.4 Timberland 4.6 Softwood Growing Stock* 16 % US Softwood Harvest 8.3 0 *Timberland Only 5 10 15 20 Percent of National Share (ODF, USFS data 1999, 2002) Sustainability Western deans’ vision for forests Forest values American forests in a global context Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead Sustainability Progressive improvement in environmental, economic and cultural conditions Equity across societal sectors and generations Engagement of people in social choices that affect them Adaptability to pervasive change Sustainable Forestry The suite of policies, plans and practices that seek to protect, produce, and perpetuate forest ecosystems for the values, uses, products, and services desired by communities and landowners for this and future generations NCSSF 2005 Sustainability Not possible without taking risks and continually adapting to change, making things better Its not about standing still! Fitting Forest to Purpose Western deans’ vision for forests Forest values American forests in a global context Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead Breadth of Sustainable Forest Management Varies by forest type, ownership, primary purpose Forest purposes: Wood and fiber production Multiple resource values/uses Reserves, nature preservation Urban and community forests Wood Production Forests Most of world’s future wood will come from planted forests: ~ 33% now, ~ 75% by 2050 ~ 10% or less of global forest area Primary purposes: Grow trees for wood, fiber Increase forest value to owner Management challenges: Thrive in global markets Increase wood yield: > 2x over natural Improve environmental outcomes Improve wood quality, consistency Produce high return on investment Maintain social license to operate Who Owns Prod. Forest? Million Acres by Owner 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Site Class in Ft3/Ac/Yr 1 = >120 2 = 85-120 3 = 50-85 4 = 20-50 5 = 0-20 National Forest Other Public Forest Industry Source: Powell et al. (1993) Tables 5 and 6 Family Forests Multi-resource Forests Most of the world’s accessible forests have multiple resource purposes ~ 40% of global forest area eventually Primary purposes: Meet diverse landowner objectives Increase forest value to owner(s) Challenges: If US federal, clarify purpose and direction Deliver multi-resource/value outcomes at acceptable costs Differentiate products in markets Finance non-market benefits Finance management of federal lands Reserve Forests Parks, wilderness, natural areas: ~ 12% worldwide in 2000 ~ 50% of global forest area eventually Primary purposes: Sustain at-risk species, natural processes, “wild” ecosystems Recreation, cultural uses Management challenges: Minimize human use impacts Restore, promote wildness, naturalness Ameliorate effects of invasive species, air pollution, explosive natives Achieve goals for least costs Finance management Urban, Community Forests Where 80% of the people live Primary purposes: Attractive communities, neighborhoods Conserve resources: water, energy Increase property values Backyard wildlife habitats Management challenges: Safety, infrastructure impacts Minimize sprawl Minimize invasive species escapes Reserve Forests: Mostly federal, some state, tribal, private Wood Production Forests: Mostly industry, family, some state, tribal Forest Sustainability Environmental Benefits Urban, Community Forests: Forests where people live Multi-resource Forests: Mostly state, tribal, some family, some federal Ownership Matters Multi-resource Wood Production Reserve Industry, TIMO * * Private, large Family, ENGO Tribes State Federal * Streamside zones, leave trees, habitats as mini or micro reserves Oregon’s Balance Wood Production 36% Reserve 31% Multi-use 33% Oregon Forest Owners Family 16% State 3% Other 3% Federal 57% Industry 21% Oregon 2004 Harvest State 7% BLM Native American 2% 2% Other Public 1% National Forest 8% Other Private 13% 4.45 BBF Forest Industry 67% Leading the Way Western deans’ vision for forests Forest values American forests in a global context Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead Challenges 1. Keep forest lands in forest uses for forest values Sustain US forests in face of global forces, urban sprawl 2. Meet people’s forest resource needs efficiently 3. Improve production and conservation efficiency 4. Restore and sustain health of at-risk forests 5. Create new knowledge and technologies: 6. Sciences and products for progressive sustainability Products and practices innovations Enhance lifelong learning and extended education AND Address Demand -Consumption Ethic Intelligent consumption and production of renewable natural resources is key to sustaining quality of life; Overuse, non-renewable substitutes, transfer effects degrade ecosystems somewhere; Prudent choices consider full impacts, the future, and the entire life cycle of resources – Domestic Renewables Win! Restoration Challenge Defining forest health Normal stresses Choices Integrated strategies Essentials for success Roles for science Strategic decision tree Threats to Forest Health Uncharacteristic fire Invasive species and explosive natives Climate change and drought Residential encroachment Magnitude of Problem 67 M ac (52%) western timberland in FRCC2 and FRCC3 97 M ac (75%) western timberland warrant treatment 62% of treatable volume on NFS 86% of trees to remove l.t. 10” dbh 72% of volume in trees g.t. 10” dbh 1999 western industry used 32 M bdt for all products 30 year plan for treatment yields range from 8 to 51 M bdt/yr Potentially large impacts for wood prices, mill/cogen capacity Treatment costs w/o products $35-$1,000/ac 1.4% of fires g.t. 300 ac, 94% of suppression costs, some g.t. $500/ac Now treating ~ 4 mil ac/yr Healthy Forest? Functions as intended according to landowner goals, state and/or federal, tribal policies Delivers high quality water in quantities and seasons that sustain ecosystems and people Sustains native fish and wildlife compatible with primary purpose(s) Resilient to future stresses, e.g., drought, insects, diseases, storms, fires, invasive species, explosive natives Has community support to produce the array of values, uses, products and services desired by owners Some Stresses are Normal Fires, disease, storms, landslides are natural processes; vital to renewal of productivity, resilience But some watershed conditions exceed range of natural processes; impede water quality or create unacceptable vulnerability to extreme stresses Under what conditions should we intervene to “solve” problems, alter ecosystem conditions or trajectory of recovery? What are the Options? Let nature take its course Intervene to reduce or eliminate stresses Stop pollution, stop practices that impede health, manage pests Intervene to restore resilience before extreme stress Be bold enough, soon enough to make a difference Intervene after events to restore health or influence resilience to stress and the trajectory and rate of ecosystem recovery Act quickly and boldly to remove threats to desired future conditions, contain costs, influence future species, stocking, competing vegetation Integrated Strategy Assess need for intervention and priorities at site, watershed and landscape scales – collaborative, community engagement if public lands involved Target actions/treatments strategically for highest success, lowest failure; highest benefits @ lowest costs Design actions for learning – adaptive management Link restoration actions to complementary goals: Water, fish, wildlife, wood yield, aesthetics, recreation, carbon Energy, transportation, jobs, wood-based products Monitor and research to reduce costs, increase benefits Communicate, learn, adapt – close the loop on continual learning What is Needed for Success? Ready access to contemporary science, relevant information, tools Ability to assess and act strategically at landscape/watershed scale Financial resources, social capital for intervention Ability to accomplish multiple objectives and create wealth from treatments to cover some costs of restoring health, resilience Integration of science with management and local knowledge for place-based problem solving, adaptive learning Innovation in work processes and new products Bias for barrier-busting boldness – risks and costs increase with delay; timidity could = failure on goals Does Science Have All the Answers? No way! Can We Get There Without Science? No way! A Strategic Decision Tree Is policy/plan clear on direction for area in question? If no, messy gridlock; clarify policy/plan Will nature deliver what policy/plan calls for? If yes, work is through When restoration interventions are needed/warranted What kind? Where? How frequent is the need? How to pay for restoration work? Public $$ – but state and federal discretionary $$ declining Revenues generated from by-products of restoration work Savings from reduced emergency spending Carbon credits, biomass energy, biofuels Other: conservation incentives, recreation? The Case for Management Wood Production Forests Sustain progressive productivity and increase value as forests Compete in global markets Excellence in commodity woods, customer service Value-added, niche differentiated wood and wood-based products Sustain resilience to drought, insects, disease, fire Multi-resource Forests Sustain joint resource production Diversify revenues to finance management: wood + recreation + ecosystem services Restore diversity, resilience to drought, insects, disease, fire Reserve Forests Restore wildness and natural processes Contain human impacts University Roles … Educate a highly skilled forest/mill workforce and future forest scientists and teachers Create a stronger science base for all SFM systems; improve regulatory efficiency Innovations for improved market and environmental performance of all US forests and forest products Innovations to increase productivity and sustainability of US forest resources and forest products Educate a more knowledgeable, responsible citizenry Promote prudent policies, empowered communities Advocate for diverse, productive, resilient forests and associated economies and human communities Future Forest Resilience? Its up to our generation to choose and act if we want to deliver healthy, productive, wealthy, and resilient forests to our children and grandchildren