Transcript Space Weather Cycles and their Impacts Bill Murtagh Monty Spencer NOAA Space Environment Center National Weather Service Boulder, Colorado.

Space Weather Cycles and their
Impacts
Bill Murtagh
Monty Spencer
NOAA Space Environment Center
National Weather Service
Boulder, Colorado
Overview
 Solar Cycle(s)
 Space Weather Impacts
~Who cares and why
 SEC Products
Status of Solar Cycle 23 – Smoothed Sunspot Number (SSN)
•Cycle 23 - Began in May 1996 with a SSN = 8.0
Peak in April 2000 with SSN = 120.8
Current SSN (Nov 2006) = 12.7
We are now almost 11 years into Cycle 23, and 7 years past SSN maximum
Historical Perspective of Cycle 23 SSN
Cycle 23: Peak in April 2000 with SSN = 120.8
• Average Cycle!
Solar cycle average over 23 cycles (1749-2007) = 117.9
• Ranks
of the 23 cycles
10th highest
200
180
Smoothed Sunspot Number
• Fifth largest in the
past century but
second smallest in
past six cycles
SSN Solar Cycles
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
0
00 06 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 02
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20
The Geomagnetic cycle will almost always peak after the SSN
maximum (2 – 4 years). This Cycle was no exception.
20
10
0
High speed coronal hole streams create a prolonged
disturbed state in the geomagnetic field and account for
most of the disturbed conditions during the waning stages
of the the sunspot Solar Cycle.
The superb recurrent nature of coronal hole high speed streams
during the waning stage of the cycle helps greatly in geomagnetic
storm forecasting.
27-Day Rotation
SOHO (EIT) Fe XV 284 Å - GSFC
ACE Solar Wind Speed
9 Dec 2003
Large Transequatorial
Coronal Hole
15 Sep 03
15 Oct
15 Nov
15 Dec
Power Interests
US Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Deer Lake Power
Bonneville Power
NY Power Authority
NY Independent System Operator
Wisconsin Electric Power
Central Maine Power
Pacific Gas & Electric
Consolidated Edison
Maine Public Service
Omaha Public Power District
WAPA
Puget Sound Energy
Aviation
Several major airlines
FAA
Flight Control Services
Herbert Flying Services
Airline Pilots Association
Aeronautical Radio, Inc. (ARINC)
K5 & K6
Customers
MISC
NASA
US Coast Guard
Los Alamos National Lab.
AT&T Network Operations
US Department of Energy
European Space Agency
USAF
National Public Radio
Aeronautical
Lockheed Martin
Boeing
Raytheon
Aerospace Corp.,
Northrop Grumman Corp.
Aeronautical Radio, Inc. (ARINC)
Solar Cycle 23 – Electron Fluence
Satellites vulnerable to deep dialectic charging are threatened at this stage
of the cycle (approaching solar minimum).
Monthly Mean Sunspot Number and Electron Fluence
> 2 MeV
250
1E+10
1E+09
200
1E+08
1E+06
100
1E+05
1E+04
50
1E+03
0
1E+02
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
Sunspot Number
1999
2001
Electron Fluence
2003
2005
2007
Electron Fluence
Sunspot Number
1E+07
150
Energetic electrons can cause big
problems for space operations
High speed streams, produce very large longlived electron belt enhancements
 An ill-timed EVA could deliver a radiation
dose exceeding short-term limits for skin and
eyes.
International Space
Station
Electrons can produce high charging levels in
dielectrics inside the spacecraft. Discharging
can cause significant problems
 Double Star satellites – July 2004:
• In two week period, several TC-1 & 2
instruments experienced multiple resets.
• Both the main and redundant computers
of the satellite attitude control system failed
on TC-2.
Double Star satellite
Jan 2007 – “The statement says the likely cause of
the failure was intense solar activity during the
period, which caused an electrostatic discharge on
board the satellite, disrupting the on-board
electronics.”
Solar Cycle 23 – Cosmic Radiation
450
225
400
150
350
75
300
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
Smoothed Sunspot Number
Monthly Mean Counts/Hour/1000
C osmic R ay Counts and Smoothed Sunspot N umbers
0
Cosmic radiation is a term typically used for high
energy radiation which comes from the Sun (the
solar component) and from the galaxies of the
Universe (the galactic component).
USA TODAY – 28 Mar 2005
Cancer fears limit Hong Kong air crews' New York trips
HONG KONG (AFP) — Airline Cathay Pacific has limited air crews' flights on the
non-stop Hong Kong-New York route after it was found the journey could increase
the likelihood of cancer, a report said Sunday.
Staff of the British-owned, Hong Kong-based airline say they have been limited to
just two of the ultra long-haul flights per month since it was found the route exposed
passengers and crew to high levels of cosmic radiation when they flew over the
North Pole.
Cosmic radiation effects on avionics (spacecraft and airplanes)
Ionizing radiation can interact with electronics and cause a number of different
effects, including:
 Bit-flips
 Destructive burn-out (burn-out in high-voltage electronics)
 Gate rupture (burnout of a transistor gate insulator)
 Dielectric failure
Solar Cycle 24 Prediction
• Panel formed and charged with official prediction for Solar Cycle 24 for
NOAA, NASA, and the International Space Environment Service (ISES)
Minimum: March 2008…Marks the end of Cycle 23 and start of
Cycle 24. The length of Cycle 23 will then be 11.75 years
Maximum: October 2011…Will peak at a sunspot number of
140(±20) in October, 2011
OR!!!
Will peak at a sunspot number of 90 (±10)
in August 2012
The panel split down the middle on
whether it will be bigger than average or
smaller than average!
•Late Cycle Activity Associated
•with Solar Cycle 23
•Halloween Storms 2003•–•3.5 years after Solar Maximum
•November 2004•–•4.5 years
•January 2005•–•almost 5 years after max
Colorado Aurora
Photo by Ginger Mayfield
Halloween Storms 2003
A total of 17 major flares, including largest ever ~X28
Fourth largest proton event since 1976
Two largest geomagnetic storms (Ap) of Cycle 23
Significant Impacts…
Significant GPS problems
South Africa Transformer overheating
15 Transformers damaged
Many flights rerouted; altitude
changes; FAA radiation alert
issued
JAXA ADEOS-2 permanently
disabled
MARIE on Mars Odyssey permanently
($640 million)
disabled
The November 2004 Storms
Some Totals…




Eleven M-class and two X-class x-ray flares.
Nine Earth-directed CMEs observed on LASCO imagery
Two Radiation storms (at >10 & >100 MeV)
Six days of geomagnetic storming – four severe!
Seven days of
moderate to severe
comm issues for FAA
Strong GIC -Capacitor
banks tripped
NASA issues radiation
alert for ISS
Colorado Aurora – Nov 2004
Photo by Darrell Spangler
The January 2005 Activity
Five X-class and 19 M-class flares
Strongest high energy radiation storm since 1991
Three days of minor to severe geomagnetic storming
Flights rerouted, polar routes abandoned altogether
ISS astronauts took precautionary shelter
Several satellite anomalies
Extended HF comm problems
Several anomalies occurred on the
Gravity Probe B Mission
Space Weather Impacts
~Who cares and why
 Radio Blackouts
(R scale)
- Solar Flares
 Radiation Storms (S scale)
- Proton Events
 Geomagnetic Storms (G scale)
NOAA Space Weather Scales
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/
Radio Blackouts
Radiation Storms
Geomagnetic Storms
Geomagnetic Storms
Solar Flare Radio Blackouts
(NOAA R Scale)
- Flare produces electromagnetic radiation across the spectrum at
all wavelengths from long-wave radio signals to the shortest
wavelength gamma rays.
Powerful X17 flare
The New York Communication Center:
07Sep05 1800Z: Solar activity severely impacted all HF comms. Higher frequencies utilized
with little effect. 24 aircraft position reports and NYC ATC messages were relayed via sat-voice
between 1040Z and 1939Z..
Severe operational impact.
Solar flares also produce bursts of
radio emission, which can
significantly impact GPS.
GOES 13 SXI
sustained
damage to
several pixels
of its detector
while
observing this
X9 flare event.
NASA JPL
GLPS
GUAM
Positioning Fails
Galapagos: Sunlit during SRB
GPS: From GPSOC at Schriever AFB 06 Dec:
“At approximately 6 Dec/2000Z there was a
widespread loss of GPS in the Mountain States
region, specifically around the 4 corners region
of NM/CO. Several aircraft reported losing
lock on GPS and were tracking 7-9 satellites,
and abruptly loss locks and were then tracking
0-1.”
Positioning fails
GUAM: Nighttime during SRB
Very difficult to forecast radio bursts – no one-to-one correlation with
flares!
This event received world-wide media coverage
Radar systems are effected by radio bursts
Air Traffic Control: The flare on December 6 resulted in
significant impacts to the network of air traffic control radars in
Canada, causing false targets and interference in the N/S
direction on scales of approximately 150 miles in length. Also on
the 6th: “Denver Center noticed strobing on their ATC radar, the
problem cleared on its own after about 15 minutes”
Solar Radiation Storms (NOAA S Scale)
“Forecaster’s nightmare”
•Biological: Radiation hazard to astronauts; radiation
exposure in commercial jets
•Satellites: may be rendered useless; noise in image
data; star-trackers unable to locate sources;
permanent damage to solar panels
•Other systems: often prolonged (days) of blackout of
HF (high frequency) communications in polar regions;
position errors in navigation systems
Aviation
• Aviation interests are significantly impacted
by solar radiation storms
• Radiation storms create a communications
problem and a biological threat.
Polar flights departing from North America use VHF (30-300 MHz)
comm with Canadian ATCs. Flights will continue using VHF with
Arctic Radio, but soon switch to HF (3 – 30 MHz). SATCOM is
considered a backup during polar flights, but it is rarely available
above 82 degrees north latitude.
Manned Space Flight
• NOAA briefs
the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group daily
• Shuttle missions and space walks require particular attention
• Radiation storms are primary concern, but geomagnetic storms will
change radiation dose levels at higher inclination.
• Deep space missions will be a whole different ballgame!!!
Deep Space Missions
Mars Odyssey – Oct 28 2003 (radiation storm) - The
MARIE instrument had a temperature red alarm leading it
to be powered off on October 28. The MARIE instrument
is not expected to recover.
Mars Express - radiation made it
impossible to navigate using
stars as reference points
(orbiter's star trackers blinded for
15 hours). The flares also
delayed a scheduled Beagle 2
checkout procedure.
SMART-1 - Auto shutdown of
engine due to radiation levels in
lunar transfer orbit. Reported a
total of 3 shutdowns.
Mars Odyssey
Photo courtesy of NASA/ JPL
Geomagnetic Storms (NOAA G Scale)
• Electric Utilities: widespread voltage control problems; transformer damage;
grid collapse and blackouts.
• Spacecraft operations: surface charging; problems with orientation;
uplink/downlink problems; satellite drag and tracking problems.
• Other systems: pipeline currents can reach hundreds of amps; HF (high
frequency) radio propagation impacted; GPS may be degraded for days; aurora.
Electric Power Grid
(Geomagnetic Storms)
• CME impacts Earth’s magnetic field
• Fluctuations generate electric fields on Earth.
These geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) can
flow into power lines and transformers
• Leads to transformer saturation and over-heating,
false relay trippings, an increase of harmonics,
voltage drops, transformer damage, grid collapse
ESKOM Network reports - 5 Stations, ± 15 Transformers damaged
Station 4 Transformer 6 HV winding failure
Station 3 Transformer 6 LV exit lead overheating
Station 5 Transformer 2 HV winding failure
Station 3 Gen Transformer 4 damage
Station 3 Gen. Transformer 5 overheating
Electric power companies take actions to mitigate
geomagnetic storm impacts
© ISO New England Inc.
2003
Process Name: Implement
Emergency Operations
Procedure: Implement
Solar Magnetic
Disturbance Remedial
Action
Procedure Number:
RTMKTS.0120.0050
Revision Number: 6
Procedure Owner: Steve
Weaver
Effective Date: March 29, 2005
Approved By: VP Operations
Review Due Date: January 1,
2006
1. Discontinue maintenance work and restore out of service high voltage
transmission lines. Avoid taking long lines out of service
·
2. Maintain system voltages within acceptable operating range to protect against
voltage swings
· 3. Review the availability of the Chester SVC and Orrington capacitor banks to
respond to voltage deterioration if necessary
·
4. Adjust the loading on Phase 1 or Phase II, the Cross Sound Cable and
Highgate HVdc ties to be within the 40% to 90% range of nominal rating of each pole
· 5. Reduce the loading…
GPS operations
• High resolution land surveying; airborne and marine survey
operations; and land and sea drilling operations are all impacted.
“If the GPS data collected are not usable, due to high solar activity levels,
data must be recollected and reprocessed. The financial and scheduling
impact on these operations is significant, with costs in the $50,000, to
$200,000 to $1,000,000/day range.” - FugroChance
The C.R Luigs (ultra-deep water drill ship) - relies
on GPS Dynamic Positioning System for precise
drilling in 9,000 – 12,000 feet of water
Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct, the ionosphere was so disturbed that
the vertical error limit, as defined by the FAA to be no more that 50 meters,
was exceeded. That translated into commercial aircraft being unable to use
WAAS for precision approaches.
K >4
K =4
K <4
Racing Pigeons?
Pigeons have internal biological
compasses composed of the mineral
magnetite. This biological compass is
affected by geomagnetic storms.
Pigeon racers will not release their
birds when G1-G5 geomagnetic
storm conditions are observed or
predicted
• “The year 2000 which has been very brutal for
young bird racing here in North America and
Europe coinciding with the high of the cycle of
solar radiation in 2000” – Alberta Classic
SEC and Space Weather Products
Products and Services
SEC gathers data from NOAA and NASA satellites and
receives real-time solar and geophysical information from
Providing:
ground-based
observatories around the world.





Alert Products
Forecasts, Reports, and Summaries
Space Weather Models
Solar and Geomagnetic Indices
Instrument Measurements
SEC Tutorial
April 2005
SEC and Space Weather Products
Products and Services
SEC produces 42 Alert products
Watches; expected
disturbances, events that are
forecast (i.e. The conditions
are favorable for occurrence)
Warnings; disturbances that
are imminent, likely, expected
in the near future with high
probability
Alerts; observed conditions
meeting or exceeding
thresholds
Summaries; report issued as
storm thresholds change/endof-event
SEC Tutorial
April 2005
SEC and Space Weather Products
Products and Services
http://pss.sec.noaa.gov
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Conclusion
• Space weather is not limited to the sunspot maximum years
- Intense space weather occurs late in the cycle
- There are several space weather maximums
• An ever-growing dependence on space-based technology will
result in an increasing need for space weather services
• The health of many technological systems around the globe
will depend heavily on our understanding of the space
environment, and our ability to predict hazardous space
weather storms