Transcript Better Information for Regional Government Marie Cruddas, Minda Phillips & Pete Brodie, ONS. Presented by Martin Brand, ONS Methodology Directorate.

Better Information for Regional
Government
Marie Cruddas, Minda Phillips & Pete Brodie, ONS.
Presented by Martin Brand, ONS Methodology Directorate
Outline of Presentation
• The Neighbourhood Statistics Programme
– Background
– Topics and data sources
– Estimating for small areas
• Allsopp Review
– Background
– Recommendations
– Developments
Neighbourhood Statistics - The Need
“…anyone can wander through some of these
[deprived] areas and know that something is very
badly wrong – but the government has never set
out to record or analyse the issues in a
comprehensive way.…”
PAT 18 Report on Better Information
What is Neighbourhood Statistics?
A service designed to meet the needs of the National
Strategy for Neighbourhood Renewal.
“The absence of information about
neighbourhoods has produced a series of
failings at national, local and community
level…policies can easily be misdesigned or
mistargeted….and important trends have been
missed”.
What does Neighbourhood Statistics offer?
Publicly available internet access to • Neighbourhood Profiles;
• Thematically map any data;
• Point location of services;
• Library of datasets to view or download;
• Pick and mix variables from different datasets;
• Time series analysis; and
• Create your own area.
http://neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk
Topics and data sources
13 main topic areas relating to deprivation. Two examples
are;
1. Work Deprivation:
• Business and economic activity data, work-related benefits
claimants, and participation on government training
programmes.
• Data sets include;
–
–
–
–
Benefit claimants (administative source)
Occupational group (Census)
Counts of enterprises by industry group (Business Register)
Employment rate (Survey)
Topics and data sources
2. Economic Deprivation:
• Data relating to economic activity, poverty and the
provision of selected welfare benefits.
• Data sets include;
– Income support claimants (administrative source)
– Child benefit claimants (administrative source)
– Household income (model based estimates)
Model-Based Estimation for Small Areas
• Census, survey and administrative sources do not
cover all requirements
• Statistical techniques used to produce estimates for
small areas when "standard" survey estimates for
these areas are unreliable or cannot be calculated.
- Ghosh and Rao (1994) and Rao (1999).
• Use models to "borrow strength" over space, over
time or from correlation with auxiliary information
provided by administrative or Census sources
Small Area Estimates of Income
• Survey Data
– Family Resource Survey (FRS)
– Household total and net income
– Sample size 21,000 households in 3,375 wards
• Covariate Data
– 2001 Census
– Department for Work and Pensions benefit claimant count
data
– HM Land Registry dwelling price data
– Council tax data
– Regional indicators
• Estimation
– Multi-level model
– Model-based estimates for 9,275 wards
– Published as experimental statistics
NeSS - Future Direction and Developments
• ‘First Stop Shop’;
• Increased use of administrative data;
• Improved analytical capacity;
• Ongoing improvements to usability; and
• Use of new technologies.
Allsopp Review – 2004
• Review of Statistics for Economic Policymaking
– To assess the demand for and provision of regional
information, and
– examine whether official economic statistics adequately
reflect changing UK economic structure
Allsopp Review – 2004
Recommendations relating to regional statistics
• Improvements to regional data
– Good quality and timely estimates of annual Gross
Value Added for regions
• Make more use of administrative data
• Expand micro-economic and sub-regional data through the
infrastructure used by NeSS
• Give greater access to the ONS business related
administrative data
Developments
• Development of new Business Register
Employment Survey (BRES)
– to inform the register
– to provide the basis for the annual employment
estimates
• Access to Administrative Data for small
businesses, eg
– Corporation Tax
– VAT
Developments - BRES
Improved data
– new questionnaire to improve data quality
– employment size and turnover measure at LU level
– Improved validation and imputation
• Improved stratification
– complexity of business
– FTE instead of headcount
– “unusual” businesses defined using admin data
• Improved regional estimation
– marginal level calibration
– winsorisation
Developments - Regional Statisticians
ONS has established a presence in the 9 English regions.
• work with regional partners on collaborative projects and provide advice
of the use of official statistics;
• gather information to improve the quality of ONS data and processes;
• quality assure final estimates of regional Gross Value Added (GVA);
• help improve the quality of the Inter-Departmental Business Register
(IDBR) and business survey data;
• provide access to IDBR data; and
• provide a first point of ONS contact for key regional bodies.
Thank you