Transcript Reducing Air Pollution Challenges and Opportunities New Jersey Clean Air Council April 14, 2010

Reducing Air Pollution
Challenges and Opportunities
New Jersey Clean Air Council
April 14, 2010
Challenges
• Reductions in upwind
states
– National Rules
• Local controls
– Low hanging fruit is all
gone
• Regional competition
– Ports as an example
– Regional coordination
• Multi-Pollutant planning
– Harmonizing control
efforts across multiple
pollutants
2
Topics Covered
• What does the science say?
– The MD Conceptual Model … or
• Where does our air pollution come from and
what do we do about it?
• What are we doing?
– Local versus regional control programs
– What does the preliminary modeling tell
us?
– How are we doing with new local control
programs?
• Innovative state initiatives
– How are we doing with “National” rules
to reduce transport?
• Will we make it?
– Are we on schedule?
3
Progress in Cleaning Maryland’s Air
8-Hour Ozone
140
151
160
135
152
147
137
110
143
107
110
137
126
107 106 104
103
95
91
121
93
94
91
100
120
80
60
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008*
1997
Annual PM2.5 (ug/m3)
Annual Fine Particulate
18
8-Hour Ozone (ppb)
1-Hour Ozone
181
41
15.9
15.8
15.9
2001
2003
2005
2007
Daily Fine Particulate
17.1
16.2
1999
42
41
46
41
42
39
15.6
37
14.5
Daily PM2.5 (ug/m3)
1-Hour Ozone (ppb)
200
35
14
38
34
30
10
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008*
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008*
*2008 data are preliminary.
What Have We Learned
from All of This?
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The Science
Two Significant New Findings
• Recent research has identified two new concepts
that significantly affect:
– Our understanding of how ozone builds up each day
– The need for more national emission reduction programs
• These new areas are:
– The existence of an “Elevated Reservoir” or “Transport
Cloud” of very high ozone sitting above the Mid-Atlantic
during the early morning hours on bad ozone days
– The transport and build-up of ozone and ozone precursors
at night
* Much of our work on ozone applies for summertime PM as well
5
The Elevated Ozone Reservoir
• Every bad ozone day, in the morning
hours, a large reservoir of ozone sits,
trapped aloft by a nocturnal
inversion, above the Mid-Atlantic
area waiting to mix down.
– Ozone levels in the reservoir are routinely
measured at 60 to 100 ppb.
– In the morning, ozone levels at the surface are
very low – 20 to 30 ppb.
Incoming Ozone
August 2, 2005 (7:00 AM
AM EDT)
EDT)
Beltsville, MD
Good
Moderate
Unhealthy for
Sensitive Groups
Unhealthy
12000
Height (ft)
9000
Residual Layer
from 1500 – 6000 ft
of 110 ppb
6000
Ozone-reduced
surface layer
< 40 ppb
3000
• In the morning (9 to 11), the ozone
in the reservoir mixes down to the
surface and ground-level monitors
surge from about 20 to 30 ppb to
about 60 to 90 ppb.
0
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
Ozone (ppb)
Source: Maryland Department of the Environment & Howard University
– The morning surge
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Hour By Hour Ozone - Back in 1990’s
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Still Happening in 2000’s
8
So…Where Does Our Air Pollution Come From?
Four Distinct Parts
•
Local emissions in Cities
(nonattainment areas)
Aloft transport creates
– Reducing local emissions is very
and fills the “Elevated
important
Reservoir” of air
• Three distinct types of transport
– Short range - City to City – “local”
pollution (measured
transport
above the Mid-Atlantic
• “Ground level” transport
• Washington to Baltimore, Baltimore to
during the night and
New Jersey, Jersey to …etc.
morning) before all bad
– Two different types of “aloft” (up-overand-down) transport
ozone days
1. Westerly, Long range transport
o “Aloft” transport - 100s of miles
o Generally from W or NW
2. Southerly, Nocturnal Low Level Jet
(NLLJ)
o “Aloft” transport at night !!!
o 100s of miles
o SW to NE funneled along the Atlantic9
by the ocean and the mountains
A Two Part Control Strategy
We must continue to
adopt aggressive local
control measures to
reduce the local
contribution
We will need significant
help to reduce the
transported ozone and
ozone precursors in the
elevated reservoir
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Local Controls or National Controls?
• Both
• Local Controls
– Clearly help reduce air pollution
– “Clean Hands” are critical
when pushing for controls in
upwind states
– Local controls for other
concerns (toxics/nuisance) are
essential
• National Controls
– Clearly a huge priority
– Have earlier actions like the
NOx SIP Call worked?
• What additional emission
reductions are needed?
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2004 Regional NOx “SIP Call”
55.5%
of Units
90
Number of Units
Cumulative Total Units
80
22.3%
of Units
229
77
70
BY 2011, ABOUT 50
TO 70 PERCENT
OF THE COAL
FIRED CAPACITY
IN THE EAST
WILL BE
Scheduled Startup Units
CONTROLLED BY
SCRS
30
178
60
50
50
40
200
199
191
77.8% of Units Installed
between 2003-2007
254250
252
250
244
128
150
100
30
23
18
20
51
10
2
0
2
1
2
3
28
5
5
15
13
8
50
6
2
10
2
0
1995 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Phase I
Phase II
Minimal SCR Units
Expect Minimal NOx
Reductions
Large Number of SCR Units Installed
Expect SIGNIFIANT NOx Reductions
Especially after 2003-2004
Air Quality
should decrease dramatically
Data courtesy of The Institute of Clean Air Companies (ICAC).
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Preliminary Screening Modeling
• NY DEC did a screening modeling run,
assuming an additional 40% NOX reduction
from all sectors domain-wide
• Results showed almost all sites below 75 ppb
– New “reconsidered” standard likely to be lower
• Other states east of the Mississippi were
assumed to make similar NOx reductions
• Analysis used for all of the 13 states in the
Ozone Transport Region (OTR)
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Reductions Inside the OTR
We’ve used the screening modeling to come up with a very rough
estimate of the OTR’s share. The OTR’s share of the 40% reduction
is about 500,000 tons per year of NOx
Total NOx
reductions
needed in the
OTR from a 2002
base = 1,728,000
tons
Reductions – through
2012 - that are “on-thebooks” or “on-the-way”
Additional needed =
500,000
Reductions by 2012
w/CAIR = 1,228,000
New
Reductions
*Additional reductions also needed in Midwest & Southeast regions
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Stationary and Area Source Controls
• Looking at 13 new control
measures
– Many just within the OTR
– Some that should be national
rules
– Working with stakeholders
• Measures include:
– Electricity Generating Units
(EGUs)
– Other stationary sources
– Area sources like consumer
products and paints
– Non-traditional programs like
HEDD (High Electricity Demand
Days)
– More
15
Mobile Source Controls
• Looking at 5 to 10 new control measures
– Many just within the OTR - Some that should be national rules
• Includes
– Tailpipe standards, fuels, VMT (Vehicle Miles Traveled),
idling and non-road sources like ports, ships, diesel
equipment, lightering and more
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State Innovations
• Both MD and NJ have a
reputation for pushing
innovative state programs
–
–
–
–
–
Maryland’s Healthy Air Act
“Code Orange” telework
High electricity demand days
Smart growth and VMT strategies
Integrating climate change and
criteria pollutant control programs
– Innovations are sometimes nonregulatory and more difficult to
quantify and enforce
• Non-traditional programs are
likely to become a more
significant part of the solution
with a new ozone standard in
the 60 to 70 ppb range
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Good News For NJ
• Maryland’s Healthy Air Act
now being implemented
– May 2009 and 2012 deadlines
for NOx controls
– January 2010 and 2013
deadlines for SO2 and Hg
controls
– All controls installed on time
• 6 plants – 9 units
• Major investment in
Scrubbers, SCRs, ACI,
baghouses and other controls
• Almost $3 Billion investment
into state-of-the-art pollution
control equiptment
• Yes … Maryland is pretty
much directly upwind of NJ
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So … How Are We Doing?
• Using 500,000 TPY NOx
reduction as a target
• “New” reductions that are
under development are
currently estimated to get us
close
– New measures being worked on
by the OTC Committees
– Inside-the-OTR reductions from
new national rules (eg. the CAIR
replacement rule)
– Continuing benefits from existing
programs (eg. new mobile
reductions resulting from fleet
turnover)
500,000 TPY
Ongoing Reductions
Shortfall
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Reducing Transport - National Rules
• Significant progress under
way
• Partnership with Midwest
States, EPA and
stakeholders working well
• September 2, 2009 State
Collaborative letter signed
by 17 states
– Strong recommendation on
new national rules
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The Collaborative Modeling
• Joint effort between Midwest
and OTC states
• Looked at what would be
needed to adequately address
transport and satisfy the
transport provisions - Section
110(a)(2)(D) - of the Clean
Air Act
• Showed that a national
program that focuses only on
EGUs will not be enough
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The Collaborative Letter
• Asks for … “A timely and robust federal
program that requires substantial regional
emission reductions from mobile sources,
area sources and large point sources such
as EGUs…”
• Specifically mentions national rules for:
– Electric Generating Units (EGUs)
– Industrial, Commercial and Institutional
Boilers
– Other large stationary sources of NOx (like
cement kilns)
– Architectural and Industrial Maintenance
Coatings
– Consumer Products
– Mobile sources (such as new engine standards
and fuels)
22
Priority National Rules
• OTC statement and Collaborative
letter identified priority national
rules
• Recommended national rules
– Highest Priority
•
•
•
•
EGUs (CAIR replacement rule)
ICI Boilers
Cement Kilns
New federal tailpipe standards
– Others
• Other large stationary sources of
NOx
• AIM Coatings
• Consumer products
• Cleaner, environmentally sensitive
fuel
• Several others
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The Schedule
• On September 16, 2009,
EPA announced that it will
reconsider the ozone
standard that was set on
March 12, 2008.
• They also announced an
expedited schedule
• Because of the expedited
schedule, there will be
very little delay and no
change to the OTCs
current schedule
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Updated Timeline
States begin rule
development process
Identify control measures &
develop technical information
Begin inventory work; do
preliminary modeling
2008
Complete air quality
modeling of measures
2009
2010
EPA Proposed
Reconsidered
Ozone NAAQS
12/2009
EPA Final
Reconsidered
Ozone NAAQS
8/2010
2011
Final SIPs
submitted to EPA
States propose SIPs
2012
EPA Final
Designations
No later than
8/2011
2013
State Attainment
Demonstration
SIPs Due to EPA
Dec. 2013
Likely Attainment Dates for Reconsidered Ozone Standard
Moderate – 2017 (Requires 3 years of clean data in 2014, 2015 and 2016)
Serious – 2020 (Requires 3 years of clean data in 2017, 2018 and 2019)
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Wrap-Up
• Ozone and fine particle levels
continue to drop
– This is great news
• Tougher ozone and fine
particle standards are on the
horizon
– Still lot’s of work to do
• The regional air quality
planning process is on
schedule
– Suite of new local measures
identified and scheduled for
adoption in June 2010
– National measures to reduce
transport are critical
• Will need significant help from
EPA
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