Transcript Millennium Development Goals Employment Indicators Astana October 2009 Theo Sparreboom Employment Trends International Labour Organization Geneva, Switzerland Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends.

Millennium Development Goals
Employment Indicators
Astana
October 2009
Theo Sparreboom
Employment Trends
International Labour Organization
Geneva, Switzerland
Employment Trends
www.ilo.org/trends
MDG Employment Indicators
Overview
Background
Employment indicators
Global and regional estimates and trends
Monitoring national labour markets
Employment Trends
www.ilo.org/trends
MDG Employment Indicators
Background
Following the 2005 World Summit, and the work of the
Commission for Social Development as well as the InterAgency and Expert Group on MDG indicators, a new
target has been included under MDG1 (Target 1b):
Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all,
including for women and young people
The new target is monitored using four new employment
indicators, which are additional to the existing indicator
under MDG3 on gender equality.
Employment Trends
www.ilo.org/trends
MDG Employment Indicators
Background
• All five employment indicators (under MDG1b and MDG3)
are explained in detail in the Guide to the new Millennium
Development Goals Employment Indicators, which is
available at:
http://www.ilo.org/public/english/employment/docu/index.htm
• The Guide includes definitions, data sources, calculations
and analytical examples.
• The Guide also includes the full set of Decent Work
Indicators, which allows for comprehensive monitoring of
decent work.
Employment Trends
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MDG Employment Indicators
MDG1 Eradicate extreme poverty and
hunger, Target B (‘decent work’)
 Employment-to-population ratios for persons
aged 15+ and youth (15-24) by sex
 Vulnerable employment rate by sex
 Working poverty rate
 Labour productivity growth rate
MDG3 Promote gender equality and
empower women
 Share of women in wage employment in the
non-agricultural sector
Employment Trends
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MDG1B indicators
Employment-to-population ratio
 Employment-to-population ratios for persons aged 15+ and youth
(15-24) by sex
 The EPR measures the proportion of a country’s working age
population that is employed
 EPR= Total employment/working age population * 100%
 Source of data: labour force survey or other household
survey/population census with data on population and
employment
Employment Trends
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MDG1B indicators
Employment-to-population ratio
 There is no single ‘correct’ employment-to-population ratio, but
national EPRs are typically between 50-75 per cent
 Careful analysis of EPRs can be used to identify labour market
issues such as low incomes, inadequate social security or gender
imbalances. Analysis should cover comparisons of EPRs between
labour market groups defined by sex or age, international
comparisons, comparisons over time, etc.
 Analysis of labour market issues often necessitates investigation
of additional indicators, e.g. vulnerable employment rates,
unemployment rates, or enrolment rates in education.
Employment Trends
www.ilo.org/trends
MDG1B indicators
Employment-to-population ratio
Employment-to-population ratio, selected regions, 1991-2008
62.0
61.0
60.0
59.0
58.0
(%)
57.0
56.0
55.0
54.0
53.0
52.0
51.0
50.0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
World
Central & South Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS
Developed Economies & European Union
Source: ILO, Trends Econometric Models, July 2009
Employment Trends
www.ilo.org/trends
MDG1B indicators
Employment-to-population ratio
Employment-to-population ratio, CSEE & CIS, 1991-2008, by sex
70.0
65.0
(%)
60.0
55.0
50.0
45.0
40.0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Both sexes
Male
Female
Source:
ILO,
Trends
Econometric
Models,
July
2009
Source:
ILO,
Trends
Econometric
Models,
July
2009
Employment Trends
www.ilo.org/trends
MDG1B indicators
Vulnerable employment rate
 Vulnerable employment rate for persons aged 15+ by sex
 The vulnerable employment rate is a measure of the more
vulnerable statuses of employment, namely own account workers
and contributing family workers
 Vulnerable employment rate = (number of own-account workers +
number of contributing family workers)/total employment * 100%
 The rate is typically related to level of GDP per capita
 Source of data: labour force survey or other household surveys
with data on status in employment
Employment Trends
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MDG1B indicators
Vulnerable employment rate
Vulnerable employment rate, selected countries ranked by GDP per capita
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
Employment Trends
Source: ILO, Key Indicators of the Labour Market, 5th ed., 2007
www.ilo.org/trends
MDG1B indicators
Vulnerable employment rate
Global vulnerable employment rate, 1997-2007
Global vulnerable employment
Global vulnerable employment as share of total employment
54.0
53.0
1,500,000
52.0
1,450,000
51.0
1,400,000
50.0
1,350,000
49.0
1,300,000
Share of vulnerable employment (%)
Vulnerable employment (millions)
1,550,000
48.0
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Source: ILO, Trends Econometric Models, July 2009
Employment Trends
www.ilo.org/trends
MDG1B indicators
Working poverty rate
 Working poverty rate for persons aged 15+
 The working poor are defined as employed persons living in a
household whose members are estimated to be below the
nationally-defined poverty line
 Working poverty rate = working poor/total employment* 100%
 Source of data: household surveys with both employment and
income & expenditure data; if data on employment and poverty
come from different sources, an approximation may be used to
arrive at the working poverty rate (see the Guide to the new
Millennium Development Goals Employment Indicators)
Employment Trends
www.ilo.org/trends
MDG1B indicators
Working poverty rate
Working poverty US$ 1.25, by region, 1997 and 2007
1997
2007
60.0
50.0
%
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Central &
South
Eastern
Europe
(non-EU) &
CIS
East Asia
South East
Asia & the
Pacific
South Asia
Latin
America &
the
Caribbean
Middle East North Africa
SubSaharan
Africa
Source: ILO, Trends Econometric Models, July 2009
Employment Trends
www.ilo.org/trends
MDG1B indicators
Growth rate of labour productivity
 Labour productivity represents the amount of output achieved per unit of labour
input
 Labour productivity = GDP [measured at constant market prices in national
currency]/ total employment
 Labour productivity growth rate is measured as the annual change in GDP per
person employed
 Labour productivity can be used to assess to which extent the economic
environment allows for the creation of decent employment opportunities
 Source of data: labour force survey or other household survey/population
census with data on employment, in combination with data from national
accounts
Employment Trends
www.ilo.org/trends
MDG1B indicators
Growth rate of labour productivity
Productivity level, constant 2005 PPP$
Productivity growth rate, 2000-2008
8.5
7.8
67,500
7.5
60,000
6.5
52,500
5.5
45,000
5.1
4.9
37,500
4.5
30,000
3.5
3.3
22,500
2.5
2.4
15,000
Productivity growth rate (%)
Productivity level (constant 2005 PPP US$)
75,000
2.1
1.8
1.5
1.4
1.3
7,500
1.1
0
0.5
World
Developed Central & East Asia South East South Asia Latin Middle East
Economies South
Asia & the
America &
&
Eastern
Pacific
the
European Europe
Caribbean
Union (non-EU) &
CIS
North
Africa
SubSaharan
Africa
Source: ILO, Trends Econometric Models, July 2009
Employment Trends
www.ilo.org/trends
MDG Employment Indicators
Global & regional estimates and trends
• More detailed analysis is provided in Global Employment
Trends reports and updates, which include additional
indicators, available at:
http://www.ilo.org/trends
• Global Employment Trends reports and updates are based on
country information, in particular information from labour
force surveys stored in international repositories (ILO,
OECD, etc.)
• In addition, (benchmark) data on population (UN), labour
force (ILO), GDP (IMF and World Bank), and poverty
(World Bank) is used.
Employment Trends
www.ilo.org/trends
MDG Employment Indicators
Global & regional estimates and trends
• The series of Global Employment Trends uses econometric
models to address the issue of missing values at the country
level
• The main purpose of the models is to generate regional
estimates in the absence of a complete set of country data on
employment, unemployment and working poverty
• The models are also used to generate short term projections
(scenarios) at the regional and global level, based on a set of
specific assumptions
Employment Trends
www.ilo.org/trends
Global & regional estimates and trends
Labour market scenarios for 2009
Global employment-to-population rate, 2000- 2009
4,000
62.0
Scenario 1 Employment
Scenario 2 Employment
Scenario 3 Employment
3,500
61.5
Scenario 1 Employment rate
Scenario 2 Employment rate
3,000
61.0
2,500
60.5
60.3
2,000
60.0
1,500
59.9
59.7 59.5
59.3
1,000
59.0
500
58.5
0
58.0
2000
2001
Employment Trends
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Employment -to-population ratio (%)
Employment (millions)
Scenario 3 Employment rate
2009
www.ilo.org/trends
Global & regional estimates and trends
Labour market scenarios for 2009
Employment-to-population rate in CSEE&CIS, 2000- 2009
190
53.5
Scenario 1 Employment
Scenario 2 Employment
Scenario 3 Employment
170
Scenario 1 Employment rate
53
53.0
Scenario 2 Employment rate
150
52.5
52.3
130
52.2
52
110
51.6
Employment-to-population ratio (%)
Employment (millions)
Scenario 3 Employment rate
51.5
90
70
51
2000
2001
Employment Trends
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
www.ilo.org/trends
Global & regional estimates and trends
Labour market scenarios for 2009
Unemployment rate in CSEE&CIS, 2000- 2009
26
12.5
Scenario 3 Unemployment
Scenario 2 Unemployment
12.0
Scenario 1 Unemployment
22
Scenario 1 Unemployment rate
11.5 11.5
Scenario 2 Unemployment rate
18
11.0
10.5
14
10.5
10.3
10.0
10
Unemployment rate (%)
Unemployment (millions)
Scenario 3 Unemployment rate
9.5
9.0
6
9.0
8.5
2
8.0
2000
2001
Employment Trends
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
www.ilo.org/trends
Global & regional estimates and trends
Labour market scenarios for 2009
Vulnerable employment rate in CSEE&CIS, 2000- 2009
50.0
30.0
Scenario 3 Vulnerable employment
Scenario 2 Vulnerable employment
28.0
Scenario 1 Vulnerable employment
45.0
Scenario 1 Vulnerable employment rate
Scenario 2 Vulnerable employment rate
40.0
25.5
26.0
Scenario 3 Vulnerable employment rate
Vulnerable employment (millions)
22.0
21.3
30.0
20.0
25.0
19.2
18.0
17.0
20.0
16.0
15.0
Vulnerable employment rate (%)
24.0
35.0
14.0
10.0
12.0
5.0
10.0
2000
2001
Employment Trends
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
www.ilo.org/trends
MDG Employment Indicators
Monitoring national labour markets
• Key Indicators of the Labour Market, 6th edition, contains a
broader set of employment indicators, with an analysis of
recent trends for each indicator.
• Indicators on the volume of employment, including labour force
participation and employment-to-population rates, hours of work,
underemployment, part-time employment
• Employment by status and sector
• Educational attainment
• Wage and earning indices
• Labour productivity
• The KILM also includes a section with country examples of
analysis of the MDG employment indicators, and their
linkages with other indicators.
Employment Trends
www.ilo.org/trends
MDG Employment Indicators
Monitoring national labour markets
KILM 2009 Chapter 1c. MDG Employment Indicators –
Analysis of five MDG employment indicators for Ukraine:
• Regional comparisons
• Linkages between indicators (e.g. productivity, wages and
poverty)
• Many possibilities for additional disaggregations (e.g. by
geographical area, age, sex, etc.)
• Scope for deeper analysis using other employment indicators (e.g.
employment by sector) and other indicators (set of decent work
indicators, e.g. wage developments, poverty)
Employment Trends
www.ilo.org/trends
Thank you!
Employment Trends
www.ilo.org/trends