Chapter 5 PUBLIC OPINION AND POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION Public Opinion Public opinion about the death penalty a good example of how opinions affect policymaking Opinions about a.
Download ReportTranscript Chapter 5 PUBLIC OPINION AND POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION Public Opinion Public opinion about the death penalty a good example of how opinions affect policymaking Opinions about a.
Chapter 5 PUBLIC OPINION AND POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION 2 Public Opinion Public opinion about the death penalty a good example of how opinions affect policymaking Opinions about a given government policy can change over time, often dramatically Public opinion places boundaries on allowable types of public policies If asked, citizens will give opinions about matters with which they have experience Governments tend to respond to public opinion The government sometimes does not do what people want 3 The Death Chamber 4 Taking the Public Pulse 5 Public Opinion and Models of Democracy Opinion polling dates from the 1930s Not a powerful research tool until computers invented in 1950s Founders built public opinion into structure of government by allowing direct election of representatives to the House and apportioning representation there by population 6 Sampling a Few, Predicting to Everyone Statistical theory of sampling holds that a sample of a population selected by chance is representative of that population Three factors affect accuracy of sample: Must be chosen randomly Larger samples more accurate Greater variation in population means greater chance for differences in ability to predict 7 Accurate Polling Most national opinion polling organizations poll 1,500 individuals Accurate within 3 percentage points 95% of the time Even this small margin of error can mean incorrect predictions in close elections Polls can be wrong because of biased question wording or superficial responses Look at current polls: http://www.pollingreport.com 8 Public Opinion and Democracy Majoritarian model of democracy holds government should do what a majority of the people want Around 70% of Americans think majority opinion should have a great deal of influence on politicians Pluralist model of democracy believes democracy requires free expression of opinions by minority groups Public as a whole rarely demonstrates clear, consistent opinions 9 Public Opinion and Democracy Difficult to see U.S. as democratic under majoritarian model Bills passed in Congress or state legislatures do not always reflect public opinion Supreme Court decisions sometimes go against majority opinion Majoritarian model assumes clear, consistent public opinion about public policies Pluralist model sees public uninformed and ambivalent about specific issues 10 Gallup Poll Accuracy 11 Stop the Presses! Oops, Too Late…. 12 The Distribution of Public Opinion To understand and act on public opinion, government must understand how it is distributed Distribution of public opinion falls into three patterns: Skewed Bimodal Normal 13 Figure 5.2 Three Distributions of Opinion 14 Distribution Models for Public Opinion Description of public opinion results depends on mode, or most frequent response Skewed distributions have most respondents with one opinion Bimodal distributions have two answers chosen with about equal frequency Normal distributions are bell-shaped along a continuum, requiring a moderate approach to policymaking 15 Stability of the Distribution Stable distributions have little change over time When same question produces different responses over time, public opinion has shifted When different questions on same issue produce similar results, underlying attitudes stable 16 Ideological Distributions Since 1964, ideologies have been skewed towards conservatism Since 1992, slightly more conservatives and fewer moderates Changes in subgroups, such as college students, may not be reflected in general population Opinions about controversial issues can change dramatically over time 17 Figure 5.3 Are Students More Conservative Than Their Parents? 18 Political Socialization Values acquired through political socialization Most people exposed to same sources of influence, or agents of socialization Family School Community Peers The media 19 The Agents of Early Socialization Fundamental principles of early learning: The primacy principle The structuring principle The extent of any socializing agent depends on our exposure to it, communication with it, and receptivity to it 20 Family and School Important agent of socialization, because most people learn first from family Learn wide range of values If parents interested, learn to be politically interested and informed If both parents identify with one political party, kids tend to also identify with it Religion stronger socialization than party because of regular activities 21 School Some believe schools have equal or greater influence on political learning as parents Elementary schools teach kids about nation’s slogans and symbols, norms of group behavior, and democratic decision making In high school, kids learn to distinguish between political leaders and political institutions, about being a “good citizen,” and an awareness of the political process College courses may teach students to question dominant political values and stimulate critical thinking 22 Community and Peers Community makeup determines how political opinions of members formed Homogeneous communities exert strong pressures to conform Peer groups sometimes can provide defense against community pressures Adolescent and college peer groups against parental opinion 23 Bearing Global Warming 24 Continuing Socialization Political socialization a lifelong process Adults rely more on peer groups and the media for political information Adults gain perspective on government as they grow older 25 Word of God? 26 Social Groups and Political Values Each person’s political socialization unique However, people with similar backgrounds tend to have similar political opinions Questions from the 2008 National Election Study (ANES) about abortion and the government guaranteeing employment good illustration Check out your views: http://IDEAlog.org 27 Figure 5.4 How Groups Differ on Two Questions of Order and Equality 28 Education Education increases awareness and understanding of political issues With regard to abortion, college-educated individuals tend to choose personal freedom over social order With regard to government programs to reduce income inequality, those with more education tend to choose personal freedom over equality 29 Income Most Americans consider themselves to be “middle class” Wealth linked to opinions favoring a limited government role in promoting equality, somewhat less with order Groups with more income and higher education value freedom 30 Region Historically, regional differences in political opinion important Fed by differences in wealth Today, those in the South and Northwest more likely to favor restricting abortion Those in the Northeast and West more supportive of government programs for income equalization 31 Race and Ethnicity Historically, those of different races and ethnicities have tended to differ in their political values Immigrants in late 1800s and early 1900s tended to favor Democratic party African-Americans initially Republican, but later Democratic Today, minorities tend to have similar attitudes on equality issues 32 Religion Religious makeup of the U.S. fairly stable since 1940s Today, population 56% Protestant, 22% Catholic, 13% profess no religion, and less than 2% Jewish (among 9% “other”) Religious beliefs tend to affect attitudes about social order Look at attitudes about abortion, death penalty, gay marriage, stem cell research, human cloning, and the teaching of evolution or creationism 33 Gender Men and women differ on many social and political issues Look at abortion, affirmative action, government spending on social programs, death penalty, and going to war “Gender gap” means women tend to favor Democrats 34 Gender 35 The Degree of Ideological Thinking in Public Opinion Some believe terms liberal and conservative no longer adequate However, political analysis requires categories Most people don’t think of themselves in ideological terms 36 The Quality of Ideological Thinking in Public Opinion Differences in liberals and conservatives used to be based on opinions about the role of government Today, liberals associated with change and conservatives with tradition Liberals more likely to trade freedom for equality Conservatives more likely to trade freedom for order 37 Ideological Types in The U.S. People’s preferences for government action depend on what the action targets Poll respondents do not always categorize themselves the same way their responses do Ideological tendencies reflect differences between different social groups 38 Figure 5.5 Respondents Classified by Ideological Tendencies 39 40 Forming Political Opinions Studies show at least half of Americans knowledgeable about government and politics Some groups much less knowledgeable No ideological distinctions Most people know if a policy will directly help or hurt them Self-interest principle Some use decision making “short cuts” 41 Political Leadership Public opinion on specific issues affected by public perception of political leaders Politicians make arguments based on shared ideology and self-interest Issue framing or “spin” Politicians’ ability to influence public opinion enhanced by growth of broadcast media 42