Transcript The President I

Voting and Opinion Forming
11/7/2011
Clearly Communicated Learning
Objectives in Written Form
• Upon completion of this course, students will
be able to:
– discuss and critically analyze political events in the
United States government
– identify and explain the role of formal and
informal institutions and their effect on policy.
– assess the 2010 and 2012 elections without
resorting to partisan bickering.
Office Hours and Readings
• Chapter 5
• Chapter 4 (110-129)
• Office Hours
– Tuesday 8-10:30
– Wednesday 8-9
"The most accurate form of public
opinion polling is the vote."
Walter Dean Burnham
What is Political Opinion
• those opinions held by private persons which
governments find it prudent to heed -- V.O.
Key
• Why do politicians Follow it?
How We Learn about Politics
POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION
Political Socialization
• The process of learning
about political issues
and forming opinions
• How we learn about
politics
• Same as religion,
culture and language.
We Learn the Apollo American Creed
• Freedom
• Equality
• Support for the
System
We Are Proud to Be Americans
The Family
• We spend tons of time
with them
• The more time, the
more influence
Why Family is Important
• Socio-economic status
• Primacy Principle
• Structuring Principle
• It Ebbs as we get older
What We Take out of it: Party ID
• We often get our parents partisanship
• Values
What about Schools
• Teach the status quo
• Correlate with our
parents
• Ritualizes
Nationalism
The First Things We Learn
• Little kids confuse
political and religious
authority
• The Flag is Good
Early Childhood
• The President
• Police
• Neither can do
wrong
Later On
• We learn more
concepts
• Government as civics
lesson
• We get more cynical
Off To College
• The Percentage of
people going to
college continues to
rise
• College often
correlates with
parents SES
The College Effect
The role of your professors
•
The Role of Peers
• Often Reinforce our
Parents views
• We do not tend to
discuss politics
• Our friends often
share our SES and
values
Work Peers
• We work with
people like us
• They share our SES
• Our views are
unlikely to change
The Mass Media and Political
Socialization
• We Receive a lot of
information
• Not all of it sticks
• Those who could learn
the most, watch the
least
We Are Pretty Clueless
So What often shapes our views
• Projection
• Adoption
• Partisanship
DETERMINING POLITICAL OPINION
America is Obsessed with Polling
• Why Polls
– Raise issues
– Gauge support
– Get specific opinions
• Everyone Uses them
– Candidates
– Media
– Elected officials
The GOP
What is Sampling?
• selecting a
representative part of a
population
• To determine
parameters of the
whole population.
The Concept of Sampling
• Blood Tests
• Food Tests
The Practicality of Sampling
• Time
• Money
• Size
How Can a Survey of 1000 People
Represent 200 Million?
• Responses Cancel each
other out
• No New opinions are
added
KINDS OF SAMPLES
Convenience Samples
• Super-Fast
• Pick easy targets
• Find the first 100
people
Judgment Samples
• Find People who
Match your criteria
• Find the first 1000
college kids
Self Selected Samples
• People Choose to Be
in the Sample
• Certain people have
much more incentive
to participate
• Call-in, internet, text
The Best Way to do it
TELEPHONE SURVEYS
Why Phones?
• Fast
• Cheap
• Representative
Why Not Phones
• Low Response Rate
• Not everyone has a
phone
PROBLEMS OF SAMPLING
No Sample is Perfect
• All samples have error
• Large Samples= Less
Error
All Voters< Registered Voters< Likely Voters
Poorly Designed Samples
• 10 million ballots
distributed
• 2.2 Million Responses
• Alf Landon Will defeat
FDR (by a landslide)
Stopping too Soon
• It was a close election
• They stopped polling
• They picked the wrong
people
Question Bias
• Leading Questions
• Double Barreled
Questions
A Bad Question
If you had to make up the SEU Budget, and
could only keep one of the following activities
which of the items would you keep?
a. Faculty Lunch Colloquium
b. Expanded Library Hours
c. Reduced Parking Rates for International Students
d. Discounted tickets for Topper Club members
Liars
• Socially Acceptable Questions
• Always Remember Homer Simpson's Code of
the Schoolyard
– Don't tattle
– Always make fun of those different from you.
– Never say anything, unless you're sure everyone
feels exactly the same way you do.
Always Check
• Who sponsored the
poll
• How they got the
sample
• How big was the
sample
IS GOVERNMENT RESPONSIVE TO
PUBLIC OPINION
Do they Listen?
• Government responds to opinion 2/3 of the
time
• Sometimes they do not listen to public
opinion
Why Not?
• General vs. Intense opinion
• Voting vs general public
• Opinion is only one form of participation
Opinions can change quickly
We Give answers to anything