Transcript Space-Based Assets for Space Weather Forecasting: Past, Present, and Future Howard J.

Space-Based Assets for Space Weather
Forecasting: Past, Present, and Future
Howard J. Singer, NOAA Space Environment Center
Research Experience for Undergraduates Program
in Solar and Space Physics
University of Colorado, Boulder, CO
June 14, 2007
Space-Based Assets for Space Weather
Forecasting: Past, Present, and Future
Presentation Outline:
 Introduction to space weather
observations
 NOAA satellite programs:
GOES, POES, NPOESS, Solar Wind
Monitoring
 Collaborating with the Space Weather
and Space Science community
GOES 8-12
GOES NOP
ACE
STEREO
 The Future
CORS - GPS
POES
SOHO
And More…
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Space Weather Observations
Space Weather observations extend from the Sun to
interplanetary space, to the magnetosphere and
ionosphere/upper atmosphere.
Space Weather observations support a
growing and diverse user community:
• DoD, NASA, FAA, Industry, Commercial
Service Providers, International …
Space-Based Assets for Space Weather Forecasting
Space Weather observations are used:
• to specify and forecast the environment
• in models (drive, assimilate, and validate)
• for research
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Monitor, Measure and Specify:
Data for Today’s Space Weather
•Ground Sites
–Magnetometers (NOAA/USGS)
–Thule Riometer and Neutron
monitor (USAF)
–SOON Sites (USAF)
–RSTN (USAF)
–Telescopes and Magnetographs
–Ionosondes (AF, ISES, …)
–GPS (CORS)
•SOHO (ESA/NASA)
–Solar EUV Images
–Solar Corona
(CMEs)
ESA/NASA SOHO
•ACE (NASA)
–Solar wind speed,
density, temperature and
energetic particles
–Vector Magnetic field
NASA ACE
NOAA GOES
•GOES (NOAA)
–Energetic Particles
–Magnetic Field
–Solar X-ray Flux
–Solar EUV Flux
–Solar X-Ray Images
Space-Based Assets for Space Weather Forecasting
NOAA POES
•POES (NOAA)
–High Energy Particles
–Total Energy Deposition
–Solar UV Flux
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Weather Satellite History
The evolution of weather satellite observations, including Space Environment Monitors, has played a
major role in space weather research and services.
1960
NASA launched the first weather satellite TIROS-1 (Television lnfra-Red Observation Satellite)
1965
TIROS-10, the first wholly operational meteorological satellite launched
1966
launch of a NASA operational experiment with early imaging and weather broadcast systems aboard to
geostationary
1974
and 1975 launch of NASA's Synchronous Meteorological Satellites (SMS) 1, 2
1975
GOES-1, the first NOAA-owned and operated geostationary satellite Geostationary Operational
Environmental Satellites (GOES)
1979
first NOAA-funded satellite in the NOAA system of polar-orbiting environmental satellites was launched
1994
GOES NEXT series (GOES 8, 9, 10, 11, 12) began with GOES 8
2006
GOES 13 first of next generation GOES NOP
2014
GOES R+
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GOES: NOAA’s Geostationary Operational
Environmental Satellite
Space Environment Monitor (SEM) Instrumentation GOES 8-12
Energetic Particle Sensor (EPS)
Monitors the energetic electron, proton, and
alpha particle fluxes
e: 0.6 to 4.0 MeV, p: 0.7 to 700 MeV, a: 4 to 3400 MeV
Magnetometer (MAG)
Monitors the vector magnetic field
0.512 second samples, ~0.1 nT sensitivity, +/- 1000 nT
X-Ray Sensor (XRS)
Monitors whole-Sun x-ray brightness in two bands
1 - 8 Angstroms and 0.5 - 4 Angstroms
Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) – first on GOES 12
One - minute cadence, full disk, 5 arc sec pixels,
0.6 – 6 nm, 512 x 512 pixel array
GOES 8
GOES 9
GOES 10
GOES 11
GOES 12
SXI: A NOAA-USAF-NASA partnership
AF Funded
(Launch: 4/13/94, EOL orbit raising 5/5/04)
(Launch: 5/23/95, loaned to Japan)
(Launch: 4/25/97, South America Coverage)
(Launch: 5/13/00, Operational)
(Launch: 7/23/01, Operational)
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GOES NOP:
SEM Enhancement Summary
GOES 13 Launch May 24, 2006
First of New Generation
Magnetometer (MAG)
 Two instruments operating simultaneously
Energetic Particle Sensors (EPS)
 Lower energy electron (30 keV) and proton (80 keV)
bands
 More look-directions
X-Ray Sensor (XRS)
 Eliminate electronic range-changing
EUV Sensor (EUVS)
 New instrument, five wavelength bands 10 - 125 nm
Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI)
 Improved sensitivity and resolution
 Autonomous event response
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Space Weather Instrumentation
on GOES-R
Space Environment In-Situ Suite (SEISS)
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
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

Monitors solar, galactic and in situ electron, proton, and alpha particle fluxes
Medium energy electrons and protons begin on GOES 13
Low energy electrons and protons begin on GOES-R
Heavy Ions begin on GOES-R
Implementation phase
Magnetometer (MAG)
 Monitors Earth’s time-varying vector magnetic field
 Included in spacecraft formulation
Extreme Ultraviolet and X-ray Irradiance Suite (EXIS)
 X-Ray Sensor (XRS) monitors whole-Sun X-ray irradiance in two bands
 EUV Sensor (EUVS) monitors whole-Sun EUV irradiance in spectral bands - improved for GOES R
Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI)
 Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) monitors solar flares, coronal holes, active regions-first GOES 12
 New spectral bands for GOES R
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Coronagraph Needed to Improve
Geomagnetic Storm Forecasts
A coronagraph will answer questions
similar to those asked about
hurricanes:
Did a CME occur?
Will the CME hit the Earth, thus
causing a geomagnetic storm?
Hurricane Isabel 09/18/2003
When will the storm begin?
- 1 to 3 days warning
How strong will the storm be?
How long will the storm last?
NASA/ESA SOHO Research Coronagraph observes Coronal
Mass Ejections (CME’s) during October/November 2004
Halloween Storms
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GEOSYNCHRONOUS COMMUNICATIONS
SATELLITES
CUSTOMER NEEDS
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Satellite Infrastructure:
Relies on Space Weather Information
~250 S/C @ ~$300M to deploy = $75 billion dollar investment
Revenues ~ $100M/yr per S/C = >$250 billion revenue stream
Operate 24/7 for 10-15 years
Space-Based Assets for Space Weather Forecasting
adapted from M. Bodeau (Boeing)
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Geostationary Satellites
Geostationary Satellites. Photograph was taken on Kitt Peak in Arizona (lat=31.95 deg,
long=248.5 deg), 20 Mar 2007, 2:30-11:00 UT. Camera was fixed and spanned 232.5 to
266.5 deg east longitude along the celestial equator. Setting was f/6.3; focal
length=80mm; film: Ektachrome 100 G. Bill Livingston National Solar Observatory
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NOAA Polar Operational
Environmental Satellites (POES)
• Operating Parameters
Polar orbit at 850 km altitude (90 minute orbital period)
AM and PM orbits to provide complete coverage
• Operational Satellites
NOAA15 (working SEM, no SBUV)
NOAA16 (working SEM, working SBUV)
NOAA17 (working SEM, working SBUV)
NOAA18 (working SEM, working SBUV)
• Future NOAA POES Satellites
NOAA-N’ (2008, depends on repair plan)
• Collaborative Polar Satellites
METOP-1 (2006)
European Collaboration
METOP-2 (2010)
European Collaboration
• Future (NPOESS)
Collaboration with DOD and NASA
Collaboration with Europeans (METOP)
Replaces POES, DMSP
First NPOESS with space weather ~ 2011
POES SEM: Measurements of energetic particle energy deposition in upper
atmosphere and solar irradiance to provide data of practical benefit to commercial
and government activities and for extensive research.
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Utilizing Non-NOAA Observations and Data
By continued awareness of, and involvement in research programs, SEC
can encourage and work together with non-NOAA satellite programs to
provide data for operational use.
–ACE: Through an interagency partnership, NASA modified
the ACE spacecraft to provide continuous real-time data.
–IMAGE: Through an interagency partnership, NASA modified
the IMAGE spacecraft to provide continuous real-time data.
–Living With A Star: Through involvement on NASA definition
panels, SEC has encouraged NASA to define satellite programs
that include utility to space weather forecasting and
specification (Solar Dynamics Observatory, RBSP, …)
– STEREO: Through interagency planning, NOAA is obtaining
real-time data from a satellite beacon that is being used by
operations for forecasts and warnings of impending
geomagnetic storms.
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Orbits For All Reasons: 1
Geosynchronous: equatorial with
position over fixed point on Earth, so
24 hour period
Uses: NOAA GOES energetic particles,
magnetic field, solar x-rays, EUV
http://www.thetech.org/exhibits/online/satellite/home.html
Midnight
Polar Sun-Synchronous: nearly polar
orbit that crosses the equator at the
same local time each orbit
Uses: NOAA POES energetic particle
precipitation into auroral zone;
magnetic field measurements of fieldaligned currents
Dawn
Dusk
Toward Sun
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Orbits For All Reasons: 2
L1: Lagrange point, or libration
point, between sun and Earth where
a small body can remain fixed
relative to the two large bodies as a
result of a balance between
gravitational forces and orbital
motion
Uses: Solar wind, Solar
observations, coronagraph; e.g.
NASA ACE; ESA/NASA SOHO
European Space Agency
http://map.gsfc.nasa.gov/m_mm/ob_techorbit1.html
Solar Sail: utilizes solar radiation
pressure to create a force for
propulsion or station keeping (not
yet flown)
Uses: Solar wind, with longer lead
time than L1; e.g. NOAA proposed
GEOSTORMS
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Orbits For All Reasons: 3
THEMIS: Time History of
Events and Macroscale
Interactions During Substorms
(NASA/UC Berkeley)
Five satellites orbit with
apogees from 10 to 30 Re and
line up over North America
every four days.
http://themis.ssl.berkeley.edu/index.shtml
Uses: substorms, energetic
particle injections, radiation
belts
NASA Scientific Visualization Studio
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov
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Orbits For All Reasons: 4
4 yr.
STEREO: Solar TErrestrial
RElations Observatory
(NASA)
3 yr.
Ahead @ +22/year
2 yr.
1 yr.
Sun
Two satellites in Earth-like
solar orbit; satellite in
slightly larger orbit trails
behind Earth and satellite
in slightly smaller orbit
pulls ahead of Earth
Behind @ -22/year
Uses: stereoscopic view of
coronal mass ejections,
solar wind
Geocentric Solar Ecliptic Coordinates
Fixed Earth-Sun Line
(Ecliptic Plane Projection)
Space-Based Assets for Space Weather Forecasting
Earth
1yr.
2yr.
3 yr.
4 yr.
Russell A. Howard Naval Research Laboratory
And http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/index.shtml
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Orbits For All Reasons: 5
RBSP: Radiation Belt Storm
Probes (NASA planned 2012)
Two satellites in the same
near-equatorial orbit with
separations varying from
closely spaced (distinguishes
spatial-temporal effects) to
larger spacing to observe local
time (azimuthal) variations
Uses: understanding process
that accelerate particles in the
radiation belts; radial profiles
of the radiation belts
Space-Based Assets for Space Weather Forecasting
plasmasphere
1
outer radiation
3
2
belt
Giles/NASA
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The Future
Observations and Predictive
Capabilities Enable
Space Exploration
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Space Shuttle, Space Station
and extravehicular activities
Cislunar and lunar orbits and
lunar surface operations
Mars
Space Radiation Hazards and the
Vision for Space Exploration
National Research Council Report 2006
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Forecasting Space Weather
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Forecasting Space Weather
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Conclusions
Space weather forecasting requires observations, but also
modeling and scientific understanding.

NOAA assets in space include GOES and POES, efforts to
provide a new solar wind monitor, and partnerships with NASA
for ACE, STEREO, …

We have valuable partnerships with other agencies, and
national and international organizations for using non-NOAA
space-based observations as tools to improve space weather
services, and as prototypes for possible future operational
observations.

New observations and new priorities are guided by new
challenges and customer needs.

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Contact Information:
Howard J. Singer, Chief
Science and Technology Infusion Branch
NOAA Space Environment Center
325 Broadway
Boulder, CO 80305
303 497 6959
[email protected]
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