Transcript Comments on “Disadvantaged Minorities, Immigration, and the Business Cycle,” by George Borjas Steven Raphael Goldman School of Public Policy University of California, Berkeley.

Comments on “Disadvantaged
Minorities, Immigration, and the
Business Cycle,” by George Borjas
Steven Raphael
Goldman School of Public Policy
University of California, Berkeley
Questions pertaining to recent trends in the
composition of the low-wage workforce
• Do these patterns differ from those observed
during previous migrations?
• Are there dimensions other than wages where
new immigrants (and their offspring) perform
relatively well?
Percent of Overall Male Population and Low-Earning Male Population From Specific Immigrant Groups,
1900-1920 Migration and the 1980-2000 Migration
18.0%
16.9%
Percent of bottom 26
percent of employed males
16.0%
14.0%
13.3%
Percent of bottom 28
percent of employed males
Percent of bottom fifth
of employed males
12.0%
10.0%
% of Total Popu
7.9%
7.5%
8.0%
6.0%
4.6%
4.4%
4.0%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
0.0%
Southern/Eastern
Europeans 1900
Southern/Eastern
Europeans 1920
Hispanics 1980
Hispanics 2000
% of Low Earne
Differences between these two immigration
waves that carry implications for future
socioeconomic mobility
• National Origin Quotas, 1921 and 1924
• Human capital disparity between immigrants and
natives is likely larger now than in the past.
• A sizable fraction of current immigrants are here
illegally.
The relative performance of Hispanic immigrants and
native-born Hispanics on several non-wage outcomes
• Employment
• Incarceration
• Education
• Home ownership
Fraction of Year Employed For Men by Race/Ethnicity and Immigrant Status, 1980
to 2000
1980
1990
2000
White
Native
0.86
0.86
0.86
Immigrant
0.85
0.85
0.84
Black
Native
0.69
0.67
0.66
Immigrant
0.73
0.76
0.77
Asian
Native
0.86
0.85
0.82
Immigrant
0.81
0.82
0.82
Hispanic
Native
0.76
0.74
0.74
Immigrant
0.77
0.74
0.75
Fraction of Year Employed For Men with Less Than a High School Education by
Race/Ethnicity and Immigrant Status, 1980 to 2000
1980
1990
2000
White
Native
0.75
0.69
0.66
Immigrant
0.80
0.76
0.72
Black
Native
0.59
0.48
0.43
Immigrant
0.66
0.67
0.63
Asian
Native
0.71
0.58
0.51
Immigrant
0.66
0.66
0.70
Hispanic
Native
0.69
0.59
0.57
Immigrant
0.75
0.71
0.72
Proportion Institutionalized Among Men by Race/Ethnicity and Immigrant Status,
1980 to 2000
1980
1990
2000
White
Native
0.01
0.01
0.01
Immigrant
0.01
0.01
0.00
Black
Native
0.04
0.07
0.10
Immigrant
0.02
0.03
0.02
Asian
Native
0.01
0.01
0.02
Immigrant
0.00
0.00
0.00
Hispanic
Native
0.02
0.04
0.06
Immigrant
0.01
0.02
0.01
Proportion Institutionalized Among Men with Less Than a High School Education
by Race/Ethnicity and Immigrant Status, 1980 to 2000
1980
1990
2000
White
Native
0.02
0.03
0.05
Immigrant
0.01
0.01
0.01
Black
Native
0.06
0.12
0.23
Immigrant
0.02
0.05
0.05
Asian
Native
0.03
0.06
0.16
Immigrant
0.00
0.01
0.01
Hispanic
Native
0.03
0.07
0.12
Immigrant
0.01
0.02
0.01
Educational Attainment of Adult Native-Born Men by Race/Ethnicity, 2000
50
44.74
45
43.84
39.74
40
34.17
Percent of Population
35
29.38
30
28.46
28.07
26.64
24.36
25
Less than High School
25.22
High School Graduate
Some College
21.96
20
College Graduate
18.09
15
10.68
10.54
10
8.38
5.75
5
0
White
Black
Asian
Hispanic
Change in the Educational Attainment Distribution for Native Born Men by Race/Ethnicity, 1980 to 2000
15
13.09
12.39
11.96
11.28
10
6.36
6.08
5
6.23
5.83
3.25
2.95
% Change
0
White
Black
Asian
Hispanic
Change in Percent HS
-5
Change in Percent Some Colle
-5.61
-6.25
Change in Percent College Gra
-10
-11.79
-13.7
-15
-20
-20.35
-21.69
-25
Change in Percent < HS
Cohort-Specific Homeownership Rates
White Natives
Age 25 to 34 in
Homeownership rates in the year …
1970
1980
1990
2000
1970
0.54
0.77
0.803
0.845
1980
0.57
0.721
0.807
1990
0.509
0.739
2000
0.536
Black Natives
Age 25 to 34 in
1970
1980
1990
2000
Hispanic Natives
Age 25 to 34 in
1970
1980
1990
2000
1970
0.263
1980
0.49
0.32
1990
0.557
0.435
0.231
2000
0.624
0.558
0.45
0.276
1970
0.361
1980
0.56
0.38
1990
0.679
0.57
0.347
2000
0.737
0.665
0.561
0.373
1970
0.105
1980
0.44
0.12
1990
0.541
0.321
0.09
2000
0.54
0.46
0.35
0.15
Hispanic Immigrants
Cohort65-69
cohort75-79
cohort85-89
cohort95-99
Questions pertaining to estimates of the effect
of immigrants on the national wage distribution
• Is the percent immigrant an appropriate instrument in the
underlying structural wage regressions?
– Across skills groups, may be correlated with declines
in complimentary capital investments.
– Across skill groups may be correlated with imported
labor via the factor content of trade.
• If we were to allow for heterogeneity in the elasticity of
substitution between capital and labor of different skill
groups, how would this affect the long-term wage
simulations?