Transcript Measles Partnership Meeting Update on Vaccine Supply Washington, 27-28th February 2007 UNICEF Supply Division.

Measles Partnership Meeting
Update on Vaccine Supply
Washington, 27-28th February 2007
UNICEF Supply Division
UNICEF procures immunization supplies on
behalf of 80-100 countries
Vaccines, Injection Devices, Cold Chain
(BCG , DTP, TT/Td/DT, Measles, OPV, HepB, YF, DTP-HepB, DTP-HepB+Hib, DTP-Hib, MR,
Meningitis, MMR, IPV, Rabies, J.E., etc)
- 2006 immunization supply expenditures: USD 550M (including cold chain)
- Over 3.0 billion doses of vaccine, over 900 million AD syringes
- ~ 1,800 vaccine shipments
Countries UNICEF
procures on behalf of
All Vaccines
Part of the Vaccines
A significant proportion of low income
country vaccine needs are met through
UNICEF procurement
Income Grouping
Percentage of Income
Group's Children
covered by UNICEF
Procurement
Low Income
80%
Lower Middle Income
13%
Upper Middle Income
1%
High Income
0%
Data Sources:
Population Data: ‘The State of the Worlds Children 2006’
Procurement Coverage Data: UNICEF Vaccine Forecast 2006
Income Classification: World Bank
Vaccine Security – Ensuring the
uninterrupted sustainable supply of
affordable quality vaccines, remains the
principle driver of UNICEF Vaccine Supply
Vaccine Procurement
Principles
•
Three Pillars of Vaccine
Security
A healthy industry is vital to ensure an
uninterrupted and sustainable supply of
vaccines
•
Appropriate Contracting
•
Firm Funding
•
Procurement from multiple suppliers for
each vaccine presentation
•
Accurate Forecasting
•
Paying a price that is affordable to
Governments and Donors and a price
that reasonably covers manufacturers
minimum requirements
Vaccine Security remains a critical issue
Positive trends are seen in the new markets
HepB vaccine offered to UNICEF 1993-2009
120
$2.50
HepB
Market development- Positive
trends lead by HepB market
100
$2.00
Millions of doses
80
Critical Stage of Introduction of
DTP-HepB and DTP-HepB+Hib
$1.50
60
$1.00
40
Principles of Vaccines Security
remain valid - to ensure a Healthy
Market
$0.50
20
0
$0.00
80
$1.400160
Millions of Doses
Millions os Doses
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
DTP-HepB
70
$5.00
DTP-HepB/Hib
$4.50
140
$1.200
$4.00
120
60
$1.000
$3.50
100
50
$3.00
$0.800
80
40
$2.50
$0.600
$2.00
60
30
$1.50
$0.400
20
40
10
$0.200 20
$1.00
0
$0.000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
$0.50
0
$0.00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
However in the mature traditional vaccine
markets although there has been progress
made….
BCG vaccine offered to UNICEF 1992-2009
BCG
140
DTP vaccine offered to UNICEF 1992-2006
250
0.08
0.25
DTP
0.07
120
200
0.2
150
0.15
100
0.1
50
0.05
0.06
0.03
USD per dose
Millions of doses
0.04
60
USD per dose
0.05
80
40
0.02
20
0.01
0
0
0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Measles vaccine offered to UNICEF 1992-2009
300
Measles
TT vaccine offered to UNICEF 1992-2006
0.25
250
TT
0.08
0.07
250
0.2
200
0.06
0.1
100
0.05
50
0.05
150
0.04
100
0.03
0.02
50
0.01
0
0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
USD per dose
150
Millions of doses
0.15
USD per dose
200
Millions of doses
Millions of doses
100
…there is less Vaccine Security - increased
dependency on fewer manufacturers for a
growing demand
Number of manufacturers per vaccine
Vaccine Group
BCG
DTP
Mea
TT
OPV
DTP+Hib
DTP-HepB+Hib
DTP-HepB
HepB
YF
Meningitis
MMR
MR
DT / Td
= Current Awards
Number of
Number of
Number of
manufacturers
manufacturers
manufacturers
awarded in 2001-2003 awarded in 2004-2006 awarded in 2007-2009
5
5
5
7
4
1
1
1
4
3
1
3
1
3
4
4
5
4
5
1
1
1
5
3
1
3
1
2
4
3
3
3
6
1
2
3
6
3
1
2
2
2
Overview of Measles demand
Growth in Measles demand 1996 - 2006
250.0
Doses (Millions)
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Measles Vaccines (Procured)
Significant growth in the Quantity of Vaccines Procured
2006
UNICEF Measles procurement profile
300
250
Doses (Millions)
200
150
100
50
0
2001
2002
Vaccines Shipped - Routine
2003
2004
Vaccines Shipped - Supplementary
2005
2006
Vaccines Procured
Routine Demand relatively stable, Supplementary activities make up
majority of demand – largest impact on forecast quantities
2006 peak year, large campaigns undertaken, challenging logistics
Looking towards the 2010 Goal
Ensuring Supply for 2007 – 2010
Measles Availability vs Demand 1992 - 2009
400
350
Doses (Millions)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Availability
Demand
Data as at time of Tender Activities
Bidding Activities 2006 - Supply Arrangements in place 2007 – 2009
Offered quantities sufficient to meet the forecasted demand requirements
However in terms of Vaccine Security the
supply is still at risk ….
Measles vaccine offered to UNICEF 1997-2009
300
$0.250
$0.200
200
$0.150
150
$0.100
100
$0.050
50
0
$0.000
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
High dependence (75% of award) on one supplier for Measles vaccine for
2007
Reduction in the number of suppliers awarded due to reduced number of
WHO pre-qualified offers received.
USD per dose
Millions of doses
250
Responses to the RFP for the 2007 – 2009 supply
indicated potential new suppliers for measles vaccine
Measles vaccine offered to UNICEF 1997-2009
300
$0.250
$0.200
200
$0.150
150
$0.100
100
$0.050
50
0
$0.000
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Measles containing vaccines are classified as high priority for WHO prequalification
New suppliers would create a more secure market
USD per dose
Millions of doses
250
Awards made for full forecast demand quantity
in 2007
Measles Availability vs Demand 1992 - 2009
400
350
Doses (Millions)
300
250
Additional
forecast
demand not
awarded
currently to
encourage new
entrants
200
150
100
50
0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Availability
Demand
Awarded Quantity
Reduced award for 2008 and 2009,
awaiting Market developments
Overview of Measles Vaccine Supply 2007
60,000,000
50,000,000
Doses
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
Total Supplementary 2007
Total Routine 2007
Cummulative Availability
Based on current information, sufficient supply to meet the demand
Peak demand period: June – September may require levelling
Dynamic situation – large Campaigns have a significant impact
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
0
Impact of changed schedule of Pakistan
Campaign
60,000,000
50,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
Total Supplementary 2007
5 Phases:
No
1
2
3
4
5
Total Routine 2007
Date of Campaign
March 2007
July 2007
Aug/Sep 2007
Nov 2007
Mar 2008
Cummulative Availability
Target Qty
2,607,785
9,066,827
6,730,182
15,880,000
39,143,000
Delivery Date
Delivered
June 2007
July 2007
Sep/Oct 2007
Nov/Dev 2007
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
0
Jan-07
Doses
40,000,000
Overview of MR Vaccine Demand
• Historically limited quantities
procured by UNICEF
• High variance in demand due
to intermittent campaign
procurement
• Current Supply Arrangements
covered forecasted demand at
time of Tender
30,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
25,000,000
Doses
Doses
20,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
5,000,000
00
2000
2000
2001
2001
2000
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2001 Demand
2002 Quantity
2003 2004
2006
2007 2008
New 2005
Campaign
Requirement
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
• New Campaign Activities
forecast for Q4 2007
• Tender issued, closing 5th
March 2007
• Tight Supply Situation, 2
Suppliers
Overview of MMR Vaccine Market
• UNICEF demand for this
vaccine is low.
• Current Supply
Arrangements covered
forecasted demand at
time of Tender
2,500,000
2,000,000
Doses
1,500,000
• No JL strain available to
UNICEF currently
1,000,000
500,000
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
• Product is difficult to
manage due to strain
preferences from
Countries and limited
available pre-qualified
products.
As a Partnership, what can we do to ensure
Improved Vaccine Security?
Continue the Partnership
Accurate Forecasting
– Early/ Long Term Campaign Planning – particularly Large Campaigns
– Quantities and Timing of Demand
• Need to assess the overall market demand – including other
Procuring Agencies and India Campaign Activities
– In Country Logistics in place
Firm Funding
– Secure Sufficient Funding to meet program goals 2007 - 2010
– Early Funds Transfer
– Support Vaccine Security
Appropriate Contracting
– Ensure Adequate Contracts in place
– Expand the Supply Base
Thank You !