Transcript HUMAN SECURITY, ENERGY SECURITY PROVOCATIONS Peter Hayes Nautilus Institute Global Studies, RMIT University www.nautilus.org “TRANSFORMING ENERGY INITIATIVES FROM AUSTRALIAN AND INDIAN PERSPECTIVES: ACCESS AND INNOVATION: Deakin University October 17, 2012 State.

HUMAN SECURITY, ENERGY SECURITY
PROVOCATIONS
Peter Hayes
Nautilus Institute
Global Studies, RMIT University
www.nautilus.org
“TRANSFORMING ENERGY
INITIATIVES FROM AUSTRALIAN AND INDIAN
PERSPECTIVES: ACCESS AND INNOVATION:
Deakin University
October 17, 2012
State Library of Victoria
1
Navigation
1. Traditional vs comprehensive security
concept
2. Complexity, global scale
3. Innovation and technological solutions
4. Post-carbon transition competition
5. Levels of energy security and sustainability
6. Conclusion: networked, adaptive strategies
2
Traditional Energy Security Concept
“assured access to oil, coal, and gas”
Supply focus ->
1. reducing vulnerability to foreign threats or pressure;
2. preventing a supply crisis from occurring; and
3. minimizing the economic and military impact of a supply
crisis once it has occurred.
METHODOLOGY =
(1) the degree to which a country is energy resource-rich
or energy resource poor,
(2) the degree to which market forces are allowed to
operate as compared with the use of
government intervention to set prices, and
(3) the degree to which long-term versus short-term
planning is employed.
3
Japanese Energy Security as a Building Block for
Sustainable Development—Add Efficiency
Supply Diversification Index by Path
0.300
0.280
0.260
0.240
Business-as-Usual
Alternative
0.220
Alternative--Pipeline Gas Separate
0.200
0.180
0.160
1990
UNU-KNCU Global Seminar
Alternative--Pipeline, Effic.
Separate
2000
1995
4
2010
2020
D. Von Hippel 7/2005
Comprehensive
Energy Security
Concept
(US-Japan,
PARES project)
5
Energy Security as a Building Block for
Sustainable Development
Electricity Technology Diversification Index by Path
0.220
0.200
0.180
0.160
0.140
Generation--BAU
0.120
Generation--Alternative
0.100
Capacity--BAU
0.080
Capacity--Alternative
0.060
1995
UNU-KNCU Global Seminar
2000
2010
6
2020
D. Von Hippel 7/2005
2. COMPLEXITY AND GLOBAL
SCALE and Global Scale
Complexity
NASA
IMAGE
ONE
ONE
EARTH
7
How Many Cities are Involved?
Source: J.V. Henderson et al, Urbanization and City Growth: the Role of Institutions, Brown University
September 28, 2006, at:
http://www.econ.brown.edu/faculty/henderson/papers/Urbanization%20and%20City%20Growth0406%20revised%20-%20Hyoung0906.pdf
PLUS: 5000 > - <100,000: about 18,900 “urban areas” (early 1990s)
Source: See data tables, Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, SocioEconomic and Applications Data Center, Columbia University, accessed
February 6, 2009, at: http://sedac.ciesin.org/gpw/global.jsp
Total Cities > 5,000 people: roughly 22,000
8
This map shows the geographic distribution of cities. It clearly shows that cities are concentrated in Europe,
the eastern United States, Japan, China and India. It is a better map for showing the geography of night time electricity
consumption for outdoor lighting than it is for showing the geography of population. For example: the eastern
United States is very bright but the more densely populated areas of China and India are not nearly as bright in
this image. NASA Image.
9
Mega-regions -> Giga-cities
The biggest mega-regions, which are at the forefront of the rapid
urbanisation sweeping the world, are:
• Hong Kong-Shenhzen-Guangzhou, China, home to about 120 million
people;
• Nagoya-Osaka-Kyoto-Kobe, Japan, expected to grow to 60 million
people by 2015;
• Rio de Janeiro-São Paulo region with 43 million people in Brazil.
The same trend on an even larger scale is seen in fast-growing "urban
corridors":
• West Africa: 600km of urbanisation linking Nigeria, Benin, Togo and
Ghana, and driving the entire region's economy;
• India: From Mumbai to Dehli;
• East Asia: Four connected megalopolises and 77 separate cities of over
200,000 people each occur from Beijing to Tokyo via Pyongyang and
Seoul.
10
BESOTO: Beijing-Seoul-Tokyo
BESOTO urban corridor--in 1994, it already included 98 million urban dwellers living
in 112 cities each with 200,000 or more people, and stretching over 1,500 km
11
Complexity of Global Governance
States:
Cities > 100,000:
“Urban areas” > 5000 < 100,000:
International NGOs :
Multinational Corporations:
Total
195
2,360
18,600
25,000
63,000
109,155
(without Desa-kota layer)
12
Dipak Gyawali - Re-imagining Desakota through a "toad’s eye science" approach
http://www.slideshare.net/Stepscentre/dipak-gyawali-reimagining-desakota-through-a-toads-eye-scienceapproach
13
14
Complexity of Global Governance
States:
Cities > 100,000:
“Urban areas” > 5000 < 100,000:
International NGOs :
Multinational Corporations:
Total
195
2,360
18,600
25,000
63,000
109,155
(Add Desa-kota layer = ~ 3 million + villages < 5K)
15
Multi- Dimensional Aspects of
Indonesian Urban Poverty
• Inadequate income
• Lack of protected, legal assets
• Inadequate shelter
• Lack of infrastructure and access to basic
services
• Inadequate legal protection
• Lack of representation
and political voice
• Cross-cutting theme of effects of climate
change
And yet, urbanization trends continue
and in fact accelerate
Urban Context
16
3. TRANSFORMATIVE TECHNOLOGIES
Transformative technologies, sometime called platform
technologies — the most recent example is the Internet
— serve as springboards for technological change in
many sectors at once.
The steam engine, machine gun and genetic crop
modification led to pervasive and massive impacts on
the world economy, warfare and agriculture,
respectively.
Transformative technologies occur rarely, perhaps once
or twice in a generation, and are inherently hard to
foresee or recognize as they emerge.
17
18
SMART POWER GRIDS & DECENTRALIZED GENERATION
use information
technology to radically
change the way
electricity is delivered.
Smart grids monitor
the flow of electricity
to and from generators
and consumers, use
transmission lines to
reduce power loss and
accommodate
intermittent and
renewable power
generators, enhance
multi-layered network
resilience and facilitate
demand side
management
19
Integrate with Decentralized Generation, eg hypercar
To become transformative, smart grids need to couple with new technologies for
urban redesign, transportation systems and new modes of power generation,
distribution and end use — all of which are driven by sustainability imperatives.
Of these, the vision of electric and hybrid cars serving as generators when not in use
or re-charging is a possible combination that makes the smart grid and hyper-car,
considered together in a fusion, truly transformative
20
PLUS RADICAL END USE EFFICIENCY—LIKE OFF WHITE ROOVES!
•
Source: http://coolroofcontractor.com/
H. Akbari, S. Menon and A. Rosenfeld, “Global Cooling:
Increasing World-Wide Urban Albedos To Off set CO2,”
Climatic Change, 94, 2009, pp.275-296.
Sustainability and Nano-Technology Manufacturing at
the nano, or molecular, level is already big business.
Two sustainability applications have immense
potential to increase the efficiency of energy use and
production. The first is the use of specialized coatings
to achieve a cooling effect on buildings and
pavements. Most of these man-made surfaces are
produced with little regard to their impact on a
technical measurement called albedo, which is the
amount of light that is reflected rather than absorbed
by a surface. Roofs, for example, could use materials
that provide a high near-infrared radiation reflectance
basecoat, and a cool topcoat (tens of microns) with
weak near-infrared radiation absorption. Doing so,
according to a recent technical analysis, would
increase their albedo by about 10 percent, and result
in cooler surfaces.10 If implemented globally to cool
roofs, this relatively simple measure could avoid huge
amounts of local cooling requirements and offset as
much as 24 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions per
year, at low cost. The same principle applies to
pavements (equivalent to another 20 gigatonnes of
emissions), and indeed, to any human object that is
exposed to the sun and requires cooling. Acrylic, elastic
polymers and cement coatings and plastic membranes
are already available for roofs and to a lesser extent
for pavements. However, widespread use would likely
generate new nano-tech based coatings that would
interact with intelligent building materials and
structures in ways that would anticipate and adapt to
the operational needs of the smart grid — and a stock
of decentralized generators based on the hyper-vehicle
fleet.
21
•
Sustainability and Nano-Technology Manufacturing at
the nano, or molecular, level is already big business.
Two sustainability applications have immense potential
to increase the efficiency of energy use and production.
The first is the use of specialized coatings to achieve a
cooling effect on buildings and pavements. Most of
these man-made surfaces are produced with little
regard to their impact on a technical measurement
called albedo, which is the amount of light that is
reflected rather than absorbed by a surface. Roofs, for
example, could use materials that provide a high nearinfrared radiation reflectance basecoat, and a cool
topcoat (tens of microns) with weak near-infrared
radiation absorption. Doing so, according to a recent
technical analysis, would increase their albedo by about
10 percent, and result in cooler surfaces.10 If
implemented globally to cool roofs, this relatively
simple measure could avoid huge amounts of local
cooling requirements and offset as much as 24 billion
tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year, at low cost.
The same principle applies to pavements (equivalent to
another 20 gigatonnes of emissions), and indeed, to any
human object that is exposed to the sun and requires
cooling. Acrylic, elastic polymers and cement coatings
and plastic membranes are already available for roofs
and to a lesser extent for pavements. However,
widespread use would likely generate new nano-tech
based coatings that would interact with intelligent
building materials and structures in ways that would
anticipate and adapt to the operational needs of the
smart grid — and a stock of decentralized generators
based on the hyper-vehicle fleet.
CARBON NANO-TUBE
PV SLUDGE?
From: E. Chandler, The Helios Project at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; presentation, May 11, 2009.
22
4.
POST-CARBON TRANSITION:
THERE’S A CARBON MONSTER OUT THERE!
In 2008, approximately 5.1 billion tons of dry cargo was transported by sea, which represents approximately 57% of total global seaborne trade. Drybulk cargo is cargo that is shipped in large
quantities and can be easily stowed in a single hold with little risk of cargo damage. Drybulk cargo is generally categorized as either major drybulk or minor drybulk. Major drybulk cargo
constitutes the vast majority of drybulk cargo by weight, and includes, among other things, iron ore, coal and grain. Minor drybulk cargo includes products such as agricultural products
(other than grain), mineral cargoes, cement, forest products and steel products and represents the balance of the drybulk industry. Other drybulk cargo is categorized as container cargo,
which is shipped in 20- or 40- foot containers and includes a wide variety of either finished products, or non-container cargo, which includes other drybulk cargoes that cannot be shipped in
a container due to size, weight or handling requirements, such as large manufacturing equipment or large industrial vehicles. The balance of seaborne trade involves the transport of liquids
23
or gases in tanker vessels and includes products such as oil, refined oil products and chemica
Read more: http://www.faqs.org/sec-filings/091014/Baltic-Trading-Ltd_S-1/#ixzz0nNbT7qcd
The fossil fuel logistics chain…
See the World Ports Climate Declaration from C40 World Ports Climate Conference in Rotterdam, and the papers from which the following slides are
24
drawn at: http://wpccrotterdam.com/conclusions
Source: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/lecz.jsp
25
Port-City Problem: How to adapt to
coming storm of change?
• Impact of climate change on transportation less
well understood than GHG emissions
• Climate models cannot yet predict local impacts
with any certainty
• Ports lack specific information on:
–
–
–
–
Local impacts from climate change
Timescales of impact
Probabilities of impact
Indirect impacts
Winner Cities: Rotterdam
27
28
Source: G. Schremp, “Overview, Background, Methodologies and Outlook--Terminals & Retail Infrastructure,” Joint Transportation and IEPR Committee Workshop,
Sacramento, April 14, 2009
29
Source: R. Iher, “Renewable Fuel Terminal Infrastructure,” California Energy Commission Workshop, April 2009 at:
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2009_energypolicy/documents/2009-04-14-15_workshop/presentations/Day-1/05Lyer_Rahul_Primafuel_CEC_EnergyInfrastructureWorkshop.pdf
30
Source: R. Iher, “Renewable Fuel Terminal Infrastructure,” California Energy Commission Workshop, April 2009 at:
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2009_energypolicy/documents/2009-04-14-15_workshop/presentations/Day-1/05Lyer_Rahul_Primafuel_CEC_EnergyInfrastructureWorkshop.pdf
31
Figure 3.23: Expansion of Brazil Ethanol
Export Infrastructure
Figure 3.24: California Ethanol Supply
Sources 2004-2008
Currently, five of the six California ethanol facilities are idle with a collective production capacity of nearly 240 million gallons per year. Two of the California facilities, owned
by Pacific Ethanol, are in Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings. The remaining three idle ethanol plants are temporarily closed due to poor economic operating conditions (costs
are exceeding revenue streams)…
Marine imports of ethanol to California have been limited over the last several years due primarily to an abundance of ethanol production capacity in the United States and the import
tariff for most sources of foreign ethanol. Consequently, the capacity to receive significant quantities of ethanol via marine vessel has not been needed. However, that situation could be
altered due to the changing mix of ethanol sources and the potential impact on marine import infrastructure requirements. At this time, it is uncertain how much incremental ethanol could be
imported into California via marine vessel. Over the short‐term, operators of marine import facilities could commit additional storage tanks for receiving ethanol imports. The conversion of
storage tanks from one type of service (gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel) to ethanol service does not pose a technical difficulty. These types of decisions would reduce the ability of individual marine
facility operators to import other petroleum products, unless overall import capacity was to increase.
If California were to transition to greater use of Brazilian ethanol, there are two pathways for this foreign ethanol to enter California: marine vessels directly from Brazil and rail shipments
from another marine terminal outside of California. Along these lines, Primafuel has received permits to construct a new marine terminal in Sacramento that is designed to import up to 400
million gallons of ethanol per year.78 At this time, construction has not been initiated. If the facility were to be operational by January 2011, construction would need to begin before the end of
2009. Reticence on the part of potential customers appears to be the primary hurdle at this time. The proposed Sacramento renewable fuels hub terminal would greatly increase the
marine ethanol import capability of Northern California such that there should be sufficient capacity to receive Brazilian ethanol over the near to mid‐term period…
32
Source: G. Schremp et al, Transportation Energy Forecasts And Analyses For The 2009Integrated Energy Policy Report , August 2009 CEC-600-2009-012-SD, p. 83, 91-92.
Reverse flow to incoming fossil fuel during transition to
post-carbon economy?
Carbon Dioxide Capture and Sequestration
Or as char into soil restoration
Source: G. Rau, “Evaluation of a CO2 Mitigation Option for California Coastal Power Plants: Using Marine Chemistry to Mitigate CO2 and Ocean
Acidification,” Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, and Carbon Management Program, Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory, 6th Annual California Climate Change Conference, Sept. 8-10, 2009, Sacramento, CA
33
5. NE Asia Levels of Energy Security—Zooming in…
Infrastructure Cooperation: Gas Pipelines from RFE,
Siberia to China, ROK, Japan
34
35
Regional Security/Energy Security
and the DPRK
36
Electricity Grid Interconnection, RFE-DPRK-ROK
RFE Vladivostok
RFE
Vladivostok
(50Hz 500kV AC)
KEDO NP
CHEONGJIN
DPRK AC SYSTEM
GAESUNG
(60Hz 345kV AC)
DPRK AC SYSTEM
PYONGYANG or
Border of ROK-DPRK
ROK AC SYSTEM
37
37
DPRK Energy Analysis: 2009 Balance
UNITS: PETAJOULES (PJ)
ENERGY SUPPLY
COAL &
COKE
CRUDE
OIL
REF.
PROD
HYDRO/ WOOD/
NUCL. BIOMASS
CHARCOAL
357
23
12
43
207
-
447
4
93
-
1
22
-
12
0
-
43
-
195
12
-
-
(91)
(23)
17
(43)
(63)
(21)
(2)
(5)
(23)
-
(43)
-
-
-
(5)
23
(0)
(1)
-
-
-
FUELS FOR FINAL CONS.
266
-
29
-
201
ENERGY DEMAND
266
-
29
-
201
146
76
5
0
20
19
1
-
5
10
2
1
1
9
0
1
-
1
1
156
24
8
6
6
-
3.73
-
0.20
-
-
Domestic Production
Imports
Exports
Stock Changes
ENERGY TRANSF.
Electricity Generation
Petroleum Refining
Coal Prod./Prep.
Charcoal Production
District Heat Production
Own Use
Losses
INDUSTRIAL
TRANSPORT
RESIDENTIAL
AGRICULTURAL
FISHERIES
MILITARY
PUBLIC/COMML
NON-ENERGY
Elect. Gen. (Gr. TWhe)
(6)
HEAT
-
TOTAL
1
643
2
0
686
51
94
-
4
36
(104)
4
57
(3)
-
-
2
(6)
ELEC.
(1)
(3)
(15)
(49)
(24)
(4)
(1)
(4)
(22)
2
4
37
539
2
4
37
539
14
4
4
1
0
8
5
166
15
242
32
1
45
31
- 8
2
1
11.87
-
2
-
3
1
-
15.80
Notes: 1 PJ is 1015 joules, ~ to energy in 24752 tonnes HFO; a 539 PJ/y economy is ~ of 13.5 million tonnes of HFO/yr
6-700000 tonnes HFO = ~ 5% DPRK annual energy use in 2009
~20-24 million North Koreans currently use about 2.5 * energy as ½ million Washington DC residents (and ~1/3 NK final energy demand is
met by biomass)
38
Biomass Energy and Deforestation in DPRK
•
Forestry Sector: Data from Remote Sensing
–
–
–
–
–
About 10% deforestation since 1995;
FAO—10% loss since 2000
Deforestation leading to flooding, landslides
Growing stocks ~40-60 cu.m./ha
Significant conversion, 1999 to 2004, of stocked
forest to unstocked forest (plants, but no trees) and
denuded forest
39
DPRK INFRASTRUCTURE: IMAGES
40
DPRK INFRASTRUCTURE: IMAGES
41
DPRK ENERGY DEMAND: IMAGES
42
DPRK INFRASTRUCTURE: IMAGES
43
44
Unhari
Village
45
Nautilus Engagement Activities with DPRK
Delegations
• DPRK Study Tour Missions to US
• Unhari Village Humanitarian Wind Energy Project
• Building Energy Efficiency Project (2008)
American and
Korean
Engineers
Working Atop
Windmill Tower
Training Should be Done at Every Step, Every
Level: Wind Turbine Power-house Training
Installing "Ground Rods" at
Unhari with DPRK Engineer
46
DPRK
Building
Energy
Efficiency
Training
Project
47
6. Networked adaptive responses
Theoretical frameworks
Trans-governmental
Agent based modelling
Complexity and adaptive management
City CC mitigation-adaptation networks
East Bay Green Partnership
Metro Tokyo Cap and Trade
48
“Emergent” Urban CC Transnational Networks
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Alliance for Healthy Cities: http://www.alliance-healthycities.com/
Delta Alliance: http://www.deltaalliance.nl/nl/25222734-Home.html
Alliance for Resilient Cities (ARC): http://www.cleanairpartnership.org/arc.php
C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group: http://www.c40cities.org/
Climate Alliance: http://www.klimabuendnis.org/
ICLEI Cities for Climate Protection (CCP): http://www.iclei.org/index.php?id=800
South African Cities Network: http://www.sacities.net/2007/jan23_world2007.stm
UCLG Climate Campaign: http://www.citieslocalgovernments.org/uclg/index.asp?pag=template.asp&L=EN&ID=6
2005 U.S. Mayors Climate Change Protection Agreement
Milan example
To date: mitigation focused; weak; low politics; not players in COP for CC Treaty
Urban Resilience Network (3D Forum—poverty-slums, CCA, urban, World Urban Forum)
Adaptnet http://gc.nautilus.org/gci/adaptnet/ (free weekly update by email)
See: M. Betsill, H. Bulkeley, “Cities and the Multilevel Governance
of Global Climate Change,” Global Governance 12 (2006), 141–159; (see K. Trisolini, J. Zasloff, Cities, Land Use,
and the Global Commons: Genesis and the Urban Politics of Climate Change, UCLA School of Law Public Law &
Legal Theory Research Paper Series Research Paper No. 08-22, at http://ssrn.com/abstract=1267314 );
summary in IIED, Climate Change, Cities and Urban Networks, 2008)
49