Transcript Transportation - University of California, Irvine

TRANSPORTATION
Stephen Jeckovich, Ph.D.
BEGINNING OF 20th CENTURY
• Internal combustion engine
• Henry Ford’s production of the automobile
• Expanded need for gasoline, growth of US oil
industry.
• US oil independent
CURRENTLY
• Transportation (cars, trucks, buses, airplanes)
energy Achilles heel
• US oil dependent
• Vulnerability OPEC 1 (first oil shock. Oct 1973
–Mar 18, 1974)
EMPHASIS ON AUTO TECHNOLOGY
• Increase mpg, decrease pollution…hybrid, fuel
cells, et al
• DARPA annual project: use Artificial intelligence,
driverless car
• Manage streets, traffic, obey traffic signs, pass,
merge, military supply
• Nov 2007 test in Victorville, CA-35 contestants
• 55 miles of city streets
• Winner: Carnegie Mellon
TATA CORPARATION
• Developed and built NANO car in India
• Four passengers, two doors, 33 HP, max speed
60MPH, 45 mpg
• Sales Price: $2500
• Sales forecast 2008 India: 200,000 cars
• Consequences: Pollution, increase demand for
gasoline (22 million gallons)
SMART CAR
• Developed by Mercedes-Benz and built in
France
• Two passengers, eight feet long, weight 1500#
• One liter engine, 3 cylinder engine, 61 HP,
46/68 mpg, top speed 84 mph
• Sacramento dealer has 22 cars
• Price starts at $11,000
RECENT CONGRESSIONAL ENERGY
MANDATES
• Auto mileage: current 28.5/22.0 to 35 mpg by
2020 for light trucks and autos
• Engineering analysis:
• Requires 30% weight reduction
• Plastic substitution for metal
• Price increase: $3,000 to $5,000
• Raw materials supply: oil and natural gas
SAFETY
• Ralph Nader, 1965, “Unsafe at any speed.”
• Development of safer car: side impact, roll
over, front end collision, etc
• Windshield accidents; concussion/cadavers.
Laceration/hi speed impact sled (skin)
• Safer windshield configuration
(flexibility/laceration)
• Seat belts, airbags
ETHANOL: PANACEA OR TURKEY?
• 5 billion gallons from corn, 2006, 134 plants, coal
fired, located in Midwest
• Increase to 36 billion gallons in 2022
• 12 billion ethanol, Generation One, corn
• 24 billion ethanol, Generation Two, prairie grass,
wood chips, et al
• Retain import duty of $0.54 per gallon on
Brazilian ethanol
• Negative ethanol energy cycle = 6 x energy in
auto engine (Cornell, Berkeley and others)
BRAZIL SUCCESS STORY
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4.4 billion gallons from sugar cane, 2006
Productivity: corn = 400 gallons per acre
Sugar cane = 600 gallons per acre
Ethanol used in 70 % of cars
Future 90% of cars will be flex fuel
Why can’t we do the same?
Brazil car population = 3% of US car population
(big difference in scale)
US ETHANOL USAGE
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Usage about 3% of total gasoline
Massive land coverage
5,000 gas stations sell 5 – 10% blend
E85 blend in Chicago test
Affecting food and cattle feed prices
ETHANOL IN US FUTURE
• Generation Two success depends upon
adequate raw material supply, feasible and
profitable process, positive energy cycle, Big
bang potential
• Meet energy, environmental and economic
criteria
• Ethanol does not appear to have big bang nor
economic potential for playing a role in closing
the energy gap