Transcript New Tourism in Asia Pacific Peter Semone Vice President Pacific Asia Travel Association APTA 2005 Conference July 2005 PATA 2005

New Tourism in Asia Pacific
Peter Semone
Vice President
Pacific Asia Travel Association
APTA 2005 Conference
July 2005
PATA 2005
Summary of Presentation
• Roles of PATA and APTA
• 7 Trends that are Defining New Tourism in
Asia Pacific
• Challenges for the Academic Community
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APTA = PATA
A Challenge of Relevance
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Respective Constituents……..
• APTA
– Academics
• PATA
– Government
• National 46
• Provincial 100
• Municipal 200
– Carriers
• Airlines and Cruise Lines
• Airports
– Industry
• Hotels
• Attractions
• Educational Institutes
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Together we can make a
World of Difference
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Education Category Membership : US$500 Per Annum
Market Intelligence, Events Discounts, PR and Communications, A Regional
Industry Stakeholder Network
Young Tourism Professional : US$25 Per Annum
Membership Certificate, Knowledge, US$99 PAC Fee, Network
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The Changing Face of Tourism in
Asia Pacific
Seven Trends
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Trend 1
Asia’s new and evolving
inbound, outbound & domestic markets
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Trend # 1
In a Nutshell
•
•
•
•
The Importance of Asia
China and India
Japan – A new focus on inbound travel
Hong Kong and Macau – Chinese Outbound
Buffer Zone
• Burgeoning Middle Class throughout Asia
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IVAs Asia Pacific, 1999-2004
Record
Year!
310
258.8
262.3
2000
2001
274.8
256.3
232.9
1999
2002
Calendar Year
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2003
2004
CY 1980 International Visitor Arrivals
Pacific
8.9%
Americas
68.6%
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Asia
22.5%
CY 1990 International Visitor Arrivals
Pacific
8.0%
Asia
44.6%
Americas
47.4%
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CY 2000 International Visitor Arrivals
Pacific
6.3%
Americas
32.6%
Asia
61.1%
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CY 2004 International Visitor Arrivals
310 Million
Pacific
5.4%
Americas
25.5%
Asia
69.1%
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CY 2004 – Asia Sub-regions
217 Million
SEA
22.7%
SA
2.6%
NEA
74.7%
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Total Tourism : An Holistic View
• Inbound
• Outbound
• Domestic
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China (PRC) - T&T Elements, 2004
Inbound
8.8%
Volume ~ 1.24 billion
Domestic
88.9%
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Outbound
2.3%
India - T&T Elements, 2004
Inbound
1.2%
Volume ~ 350 million
Domestic
97.1%
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Outbound
1.7%
MAT Outbound Japan
(Dec-00 to May-05)
Outbound Japan (millions)
20
15
10
5
0
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Year-ended
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Dec-03
Dec-04
China (PRC) Outbound
35
30
Outbound (mns)
25
20
15
10
5
0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Year
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2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
China (PRC), Japan Outbound
Index 1996=100
700
Index Japan
IVA Index 1996=100.0
600
Index China
592.8
500
399.6
400
328.0
300
239.8
200
100.0
105.2
100.6
100
166.5
182.4
94.7
98.0
206.9
106.7
97.1
99.0
100.0
79.6
100.2
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Calendar Year
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2001
2002
2003
2004e
Trend 2
Liberalisation in Aviation, Banking, Travel
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Trend # 2
In a Nutshell
•
•
•
•
Now Everybody can Fly
Global Approved Destination Status (ADS)
Greater Sub-Regional Cooperation
Increased Credit Card Usage in China/India
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Kingfisher
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Competing Hubs
TYO
BJS
KIX
SE
L
SHA
15.6
16.0
16.3
CAN
MFM HKG
TPE
16.5
KAO
16.7
16.8
17.1
MNL
17.2
17.4
17.6
BKK
17.6
KUL
SIN
JKT
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www.centreforaviation.com
Celebrating a Decade of Cooperation in Tourism
Cambodia
Myanmar
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China (Yunnan)
Lao PDR
Thailand
Vietnam
Mandalay
Bagan
Hue
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Trend 3
Disneyland & the Olympics
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Trend # 3
In a Nutshell
•
•
•
•
A Tourism ‘Face Lift’ for Greater China
September 12, 2005
Macau’s Impact → Las Vegas of the East
In the Run up to 2008
– 16 Billion dollars / 376 Tourism Projects
– 40,000 New Hotel Rooms / 200 Hotels
• Mega Events Proven to Impact IVA’s
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Australia & the 2000 Olympics
5,500,000
5,000,000
IVAs
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
Dec-95
Sep-96
Jun-97
Mar-98
Dec-98
Sep-99
Jun-00
Mar-01
Year-Ended
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Dec-01
Sep-02
Jun-03
Mar-04
Dec-04
Singapore & SARS
9,000,000
8,000,000
IVAs
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
Jan-00
Oct-00
Jul-01
Apr-02
Year-Ended
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Jan-03
Oct-03
Jul-04
Trend 4
Changes in the Air
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Trend # 4
In a Nutshell
• Increasing Competitive Aviation Industry
• High Fuel Prices
• IATA Changes
– Electronic Ticketing; paper phase out
– Self Print Bar Coded Boarding Passes
– Radio Frequency for Bags
• Super Jetliners: A New Way of Travel
– A380
– B7E7
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Boom in International Tourism
Year
Aircraft
Flight
Time
Airfare
Capacity
1939
Boeing 314
25-30 Hours
NY-London
Half the Price
of a small
house
74 pax
1969
Boeing 747
6 hours 5
minutes
NY-London
A small
fortune
366 pax
2004
Airbus 340500
18 Hours
NY-Singapore
A month’s
salary
184 pax
2006
Airbus 380800
12.5 Hours
SingaporeLondon
Just under a
month’s salary
450 pax
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A340-500
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B777-200LR
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Trend 5
Political Environment
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Trend # 5
In a Nutshell
• Tourism is Hyper-Sensitive to External
Factors
• Greater Awareness and Understanding of the
Power of Tourism
• Japan and US Look to Tourism
• Middle East Courts Tourism
• Liberalising Economies of China and India
• Economic Interdependence
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Bali Bombing Ground Zero
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Trend 6
Changing Demographics
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Trend # 6
In a Nutshell
• Today’s Backpacker → Tomorrow’s High End
• The Rise and Decline of the Young Turks
• Changing Demographics in China (an
example)
• Nothing Remains Static, so Tourism
Professionals must React Early to Changes in
Demographics
• Multi-Layered Destination Marketing
Strategies for Single Country (Young, Middle
Aged, Seniors)
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The ‘Older’ Asian Traveller
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The New Young Asian Traveller
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Asiandemographics.com
• Demographics a useful perspective
• China (PRC)
–
–
–
–
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2003-2013 age bracket <25 years
Decrease of 27% (126 million)
2003-2023 age bracket<25 years
Decrease of 50% (235 million)
10 years ago…
225,893
0-9
197,428
10-19
20-29
244,853
184,769
Age-group
30-39
142,013
40-49
90,298
50-59
67,656
60-69
China’s populations was young!
35,241
70-79
5,784
80 & over
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
Persons (000s)
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200,000
250,000
300,000
China’s Population 1994, 2004
0-9
1994
10-19
2004
20-29
Age-group
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
Today the population is dominated by
70-79
“Young Householders”
80 & over
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
Persons (000s)
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200,000
250,000
300,000
China’s Population 1994, 2004, 2014
Persons (000s)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
0-9
10-19
20-29
Age-group
30-39
1994
2004
2014
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80 & over
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While within a decade the population
will be dominated by “Mature
Householders”
Today….
• Surplus of females
80+
75-79
• Population ‘bulge’
70-74
Females
65-69
Males
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
• Teenage ‘blip’ moving
through
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
• Male bias in younger age
groups.
10-14
5-9
0-4
0
20000
40000
Persons 000s
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60000
80000
Today
An average age of 32.9 years
Japan
41.3
Hong Kong
37.1
Australia
36.37
Singapore
33.4
Taiwan
33.8
South Korea
33.4
China
32.9
Thailand
31.6
Indonesia
27.7
India
27.7
Vietnam
27.6
Malaysia
26.4
25.2
Philippines
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
Av e rage Age - 2004
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40.0
50.0
Today….
One of the lowest birth rates in the region.
Total
60.0
Hong Kong
23.3
China
32.3
Taiwan
38.9
Japan
41.0
Singapore
40.2
South Korea
43.3
Thailand
45.4
Australia
50.8
Vietnam
56.2
Malaysia
82.1
Indonesia
85.8
Philippines
90.7
India
95.4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Births per thousand women aged 15 to 49 years
Particularly low when compared with countries of similar levels of affluence (e.g.
Malaysia & Indonesia).
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Today….
Presently 50% of adults
are married and with at
least one child in their
family.
Old retired single
Old working age single
2%
6%
Retired Empty Nester
7%
Working age Empty Nester
10%
Married youngest child >9 & <20
23%
Young married - a child < 10
A further 21% are young
and single
Young married - no kids
Young single
27%
4%
21%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Percent of Adults
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Today….
Average household size is 3.2 persons.
6+
6
Number of persons in household
5
11
4
23
3
32
2
20
1
8
0
5
10
15
20
25
Pe rce nt of a ll house holds
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30
35
Product/Service positioning
35
Too expensive?
30
25
Rural vs Urban?
% of households
Too Cheap?
Urban
Rural
20
15
10
5
Rmb per household pa
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Plus
60000
56000
52000
48000
44000
40000
36000
32000
28000
24000
20000
16000
12000
8000
4000
0
Tomorrow….
China’s total Population stops growing in
2014 at 1.3 billion persons
A fundamental structural change in the
population
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Tomorrow….
1,200
A fundamental change
in the range of products
and services sought
in the future.
55
81
1,000
25
61
86
102
74
Persons millions in lifecycle stage
Lifecycle is in part a
function of age.
So it too changes.
35
800
103
600
Old working age single
159
213
258
Married youngest child >9
& <20
Young married - a child <
10
Young married - no kids
Young single
400
150
283
198
115
37
37
200
41
218
219
2003
2013
179
0
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Retired Empty Nester
Working age Empty
Nester
343
234
Old retired single
2023
Tomorrow….
An obvious, but important consequence of these changes is
the emergence of the childless household.
2023
74%
2013
51%
36%
2003
0%
20%
40%
60%
Percent of all households
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80%
Trend 7
Improving Levels of Disposable Income
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Trend # 7
In a Nutshell
• Disposable Income = Travel / Mobility
• Increased Accessibility of Travel
• Asia is its own best Customer (70 percent of
Demand)
• Younger, Better Educated, Richer : Digitally
Savvy
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The Younger Generation
Size and $pend capacity
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The Younger Asian Traveller
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Demographics – East Asia
 Incomes in Asia where income is greater than
US$5,000 gross/year
 Discretionary income appears
 60% of additional income goes on discretionary
spending
 Outside Japan = 225 million Asians
 By 2010
340 mn - 540 mn
 By 2020
680 mn – 1.1 bn
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The Young Asian
The Young Asian
“New Young”
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25-30 year cohort =
Young Singles
+
Young Married, no kids
+
Young Married with kids
The “New Young” in Asia Pacific
Discretionary Spending (US$bns) in 11 key Asia Pacific markets, 2001 & 2006
2001
2006
$368.6
$308.1
$208.2
$188.3
$60.5
$19.9
Young singles
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Young married (NK)
Total New Young
The “New Young” in Asia Pacific
12% of the population accounting for 47% of discretionary spending
47%
42%
2001
2006
Discretionary spending (%) by the New Young in Asia Pacific
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Challenges for the Academic
Community
Adapting and Contributing to
New Tourism in Asia Pacific
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Challenges
• Continue to Espouse and Quantify the Value of
Sustainable Tourism
• Deliver Professionals to the Industry that have
an ‘Holistic’ Understanding of Tourism
• Build Credibility and Value of Tourism
• ‘Asianize’ Service Quality
• Provide ‘Digestible’ Research Outcomes
• Help to Enhance Tourism as a Career Choice
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In Conclusion……..
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Beach Holiday?
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Impacts
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Thank You
www.PATA.org
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