Transcript Central egency for public mobilization and statistics CENSUS EVALUATION POST-ENUMERATION SURVEY Purpose of Census Evaluation Measure accuracy (quality) of census data Coverage error –

Central egency for public
mobilization and statistics
CENSUS EVALUATION
POST-ENUMERATION SURVEY
Purpose of Census Evaluation
Measure accuracy (quality) of census data
Coverage error – census omission
duplication of households and persons
and
Content error – nonresponse, response errors,
coding errors, etc.
Objectives of
Post-Enumeration Survey
Measure both census coverage and content errors.
PES evaluation results useful for improving future
census operation.
PES results assist census data users
understanding relative magnitude of error.
in
PES estimates may be used for adjusting the
census population figures and population projections
PES Methodology
Independent
enumeration
of
household
and
population in sample of areas.
- De jure or de facto enumeration, depending on
type of census enumeration.
Two-Way matching of PES and census from for
sample areas.
PES Methodology (continued)
Reconciliation visit following matching.
Dual-system estimation methodology
-
Based
on
two
independent
sources
population data – census and PES.
of
Timing of PES
Ideal to conduct PES about 2 to 4 weeks following
the census, to avoid much movement of population
and recall error
Important to allow sufficient time to ensure all
census materials are returned from field
- To ensure independence between census and
PES enumeration
Movement of Population
between Census and PES
Non-movers – persons in same household at
time of census and PES
In-movers
–
persons
who
moved
into
a
household between the time of the census and
the PES
Out-movers – persons who move out of a
household between the census and the PES
Enumeration Procedures for
Moving Population
Procedure
A
–
identifies
composition
of
household at time of census
- Enumeration of non-movers and out-movers
- Advantage – out-movers easier to match
-
Disadvantage – more
information for out-movers
difficult
to
obtain
Enumeration Procedures for
Moving Population (Continued)
Procedure B – identifies all current household
members at time of PES
- Enumeration of non-movers and in-movers
- Advantage – in-movers easier to match
- Disadvantage – more difficult to match in-movers
to census records at previous residence in
different area
Enumeration Procedures for
Moving Population (Continued)
Procedure C – combination of Procedures A and B
- Enumeration of non-movers, in-movers and outmovers
- Match non-movers and out-movers to obtain match
rate for movers
- Count number of in-movers
- Apply match rate for out-movers to number of inmovers
- Advantage – out-movers easier to match, in-movers
easier to identify; less bias than Procedure A, less
cost than Procedure B
- Procedure C used for Egypt PES
Defining Objectives for PES
Coverage error evaluation
- Establish geographic domains, age groups for analysis
- Example: geographic domains for Egypt PES Cairo, other
large cities (Alexandria, Port-Said, Suez), region (Upper and
Lower Egypt) by other urban, rural
Content error measurement
- Identify items to be evaluated for content error: most
important characteristics subject to response error
- Generally avoid items which require detailed coding such as
industry and occupation
PES Questionnaire Design
Select items from census from required for
matching household and persons
- Household identification, including address
- Person characteristics – name, sex, age, relationship to head
of household, marital status
Information to establish moving status following
census
- Whether person was in household at time of census
Items included for content error analysis
Shaded areas in PES questionnaire to enter
census responses for matched persons
Sample Design for PES
Stratified area sample
Sampling frame – list of census enumeration
areas (EAs) or segments
P-sample – households enumerated in PES
within sample segments
E-sample – households enumerated by census
within same sample segments
Sample Design for PES (continued)
Stratification – geographic domains of analysis
- Cairo, other large cities (Alexandria, Port-Said, Suez), region
(Upper and Lower Egypt) by other urban, rural
- Geographic ordering of EAs with systematic provides implicit
stratification
Sample size and allocation
- Depends on precision requirements for domains of analysis
- Minimum number of sample segments for each domain of
analysis – ideally, 30 sample segments
Egypt has done (PES) Twiss
The first : for the 1968 population census which carried out
by (PSRC) population studies and research
center at CAPMAS
The second
: for the 2006 population census which
carried out by cabinet (information and
decision support center (IDSC))
The two (PES) done by the same concepts,
procedures, sample design
Design
The design has six domains.
The (PSUs) primary sampling units – shiakh has
in urban area, villages in rural area.
each sample PSU divided into segments each
regiment size has 100 households.
all
households
segments.
enumerated
within
sample
Matching Operation
Two- way matching between household and
person records in P-sample (PES) and E-sample
(census)
Matching procedures should be tested and
described very clearly in matching manual.
Matching rules should be designed to minimize
net matching error rate.
Reconciliation Visit
Follow up on persons enumerated in the census
but not the PES, to determine whether they were
correctly enumerated.
Verify cases of possible matches.
Determine final match status.
Dual System Estimation
Based on assumption of independence between
census and PES.
Depends on two-way matching between census
and PES.
Includes estimate of population missing from
both census and PES.
Dual System Estimation Model
Census
PES
Total
Included
Missed
Total
Nt
Nc
Nt - Nc
Included
Np
M
Np- M
Missed
Nt - Np
Nc - M
N’cp
Dual System Estimate
of Total population
Nc x Np
Nc
Nt = ‫ــــــــــــــــ = ــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ‬
RM
M
M
RM = ‫ = ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ‬match rate
NP
1 - RM = census omission rate