   Recommendation Industry Information Analysis ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦  Business Economic Financial Valuation Summation and comments   Decrease SIM portfolio by 42 basis points to come in line with S&P 500 Reallocate funds within the Telecommunication.

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Transcript    Recommendation Industry Information Analysis ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦  Business Economic Financial Valuation Summation and comments   Decrease SIM portfolio by 42 basis points to come in line with S&P 500 Reallocate funds within the Telecommunication.

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

Recommendation
Industry Information
Analysis
◦
◦
◦
◦

Business
Economic
Financial
Valuation
Summation and comments


Decrease SIM portfolio by 42 basis points to
come in line with S&P 500
Reallocate funds within the
Telecommunication SIM Sector
S&P 500
Sector
S&P 500
9.11%
11.94%
12.35%
14.66%
12.65%
10.09%
19.04%
3.39%
3.09%
3.68%
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Energy
Financials
Health Care
Industrial
Information Technology
Materials
Telecommunications
Utilities
SIM Portfolio Difference
7.51%
-1.60%
12.23%
0.29%
12.80%
0.45%
6.59%
-8.07%
13.13%
0.48%
11.97%
1.88%
21.97%
2.92%
4.52%
1.13%
3.51%
0.43%
3.19%
-0.49%
3%
3%
4%
Consumer Discretionary
9%
19%
Consumer Staples
12%
Energy
12%
Financials
Health Care
Industrial
10%
Information Technology
15%
13%
Materials
Telecommunications
Utilities
SIM Portfolio
5%
4% 3%
Consumer Discretionary
8%
Consumer Staples
12%
Energy
23%
13%
12%
7%
13%
Financials
Health Care
Industrial
Information Technology
Materials
Industries
Wireless Telecom Service
Integrated Telecom Service
Market Cap
$12.00
$116.90
Largest Companies in the Telecom Sector
 AT&T
◦ Former SBC merged with AT&T creating the new AT&T (USA)

China Mobile

Vodafone

Verizon Communications

Deutsche Telekom

America Movil
◦ Formerly China state-owned, now still state-controlled, one of
two mobile phone monopolies in the entire China.
◦ Britain's largest telecom operator.
◦ US-based telecom company formed after a series of mergers.
◦ German telecom company, also owns T-Mobile.
◦ Mexican operator controlled by the world's richest man - Carlos
Slim.
MTD
-5.05%
QTD
-5.05%
YTD
-7.95%

Mature and Defensive (Industry Specific)
◦ Established networks and low maintenance costs,
little need for increased capital spending.
◦ More resistant to economic fluctuations, domestic
and foreign.

Marketing Mix Indicators
◦
◦
◦
◦
Product
Price
Distribution
Promotion
0.0000
-10.0000
-20.0000
-30.0000
Telecom
S&P 500
-40.0000
-50.0000
-60.0000
.85 Beta


Demand saturated with providers
New capacity
◦ 3G and 4G networks
◦ Open Interface programming





Government Regulations
Currency Fluctuations
New Innovations
Spectrum Availability
Workforce



Domestic and International
Spectrum availability
User dynamics

Threats of New Entrants

Power of Suppliers

Power of Buyers

Availability of Substitutes

Competitive Rivalry
◦ Capital intensity
◦ Ownership of a telecom license
◦ Acceptable radio spectrum
◦ Large number of vendors dilutes the bargaining power
◦ Increasing choice
◦ Low differentiation
◦ Switchover costs
◦ Cable TV, Satellite Operators, and Internet
◦ Cut-Throat
◦ Low price and slight differentiations
Economic Factor
Unemployment
Consumer Confidence
New Homes
Federal Funds Rate
Capital Spending
Correl
-0.65
0.72
0.81
0.74
0.82
Sector
Financial Analysis
5-year Growth Rate
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity
S&P 500
Financial Analysis
5-year Growth Rate
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity
Growth
Sales
Earnings
8%
9%
2005
10.1%
14.8%
2006
10.3%
14.3%
2007
10.4%
14.9%
2008
9.4%
13.4%
2009
Average
8.5%
9.7%
13.9%
14.3%
Growth
Sales
Earnings
7%
0%
2005
8.8%
17.6%
2006
9.3%
21.0%
2007
8.9%
17.0%
2008
6.5%
15.0%
2009
Average
6.2%
7.9%
11.0%
16.3%
Industry - Wireless
Financial Analysis
5-year Growth Rate
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity
Growth
Sales
Earnings
6%
-19%
2005
11.2%
12.3%
Industry - Integrated Telecom
Financial Analysis
5-year Growth Rate
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity
2006
10.1%
7.6%
2007
6.8%
4.9%
2008
1.4%
2.7%
2009
Average
1.0%
6.1%
2.2%
5.9%
2008
10.6%
16.0%
2009
Average
9.6%
10.3%
16.8%
17.1%
Growth
Sales
Earnings
10%
14%
2005
10.1%
15.7%
2006
10.4%
18.0%
2007
11.0%
19.0%
AT&T
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Average
Net Profit Margin
10.9%
11.7%
10.0%
10.4%
17.9%
12.2%
Return on Equity
10.1%
8.6%
10.4%
12.2%
15.6%
11.4%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Average
Total Sales
$ 43,862
$
63,055
$ 118,928
$ 124,028
$ 123,008
$ 94,576
Depreciation
$ 7,622
$
9,879
$ 21,546
$ 19,883
$ 19,661
$ 15,718
Depreciation % of Sales
17.4%
15.7%
18.1%
16.0%
16.0%
16.6%
Operating Margins
14.1%
16.3%
17.2%
18.2%
18.5%
16.9%
Operating Cash Flows
Positive Operating Cashflows
Verizon
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Average
Net Profit Margin
9.8%
6.2%
5.9%
6.6%
6.7%
7.0%
Return on Equity
19.2%
12.4%
11.1%
13.9%
14.9%
14.3%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Average
Total Sales
$ 75,112
$
88,144
$ 93,469
$ 97,354
$ 103,970
$ 91,610
Depreciation
$ 14,047
$
14,545
$ 14,377
$ 14,565
$ 15,596
$ 14,626
Depreciation % of Sales
18.7%
16.5%
15.4%
15.0%
15.0%
16.1%
Operating Margins
19.0%
15.2%
16.7%
17.3%
17.0%
17.0%
Operating Cash Flows
Positive Operating Cashflows
P/Trailing E
P/Forward E
P/B
P/S
P/CF
Sector S&P 500 Wireless Integrated
-33%
-33%
209%
-34%
-11%
-16%
NM
-18%
-19%
14%
-33%
-22%
-33%
-18%
-59%
-33%
-36%
-20%
-60%
-29%
>30% below mean – Green
>0% above mean - Red
Company Comparison
P/Forward E
P/S
P/B
P/EBITDA
P/CF
NIHD
-28%
-58%
-71%
-64%
-55%
AT&T
Verizon
-16%
-13%
-24%
-43%
-32%
-26%
-40%
-49%
-36%
-25%
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Slightly undervalued, Defensive (.85), Cheap
relative to S&P 500
Potential growth in wireless and data division
Cut throat competition in the growth areas
Tightening profit margins in the wireless
industry
Uncertainty in global financial market



Decrease SIM portfolio by 42 basis points to
come in line with S&P 500
Reallocate funds within the
Telecommunication SIM Sector
Questions?