Growing our Future Forest Research, Forest Practices, and Forest Products Hal Salwasser College of Forestry Oregon State University May 6, 2004 Oregon Society of American Foresters Ashland, OR.
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Growing our Future Forest Research, Forest Practices, and Forest Products Hal Salwasser College of Forestry Oregon State University May 6, 2004 Oregon Society of American Foresters Ashland, OR What We’ll Cover Oregon forests in a global context Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead Four Themes: Global forces and linkages impact forest decision making Social and economic conditions are both enablers of and barriers to choice Equity is an emergent goal Adaptation to dynamics in sustainability ideals, markets and ecosystems is key to survival and success Global Forces Population growth Political instability Trade costs Restructuring in forest products industry Widening rich-poor gap Raising of “green” consciousness Rising consumption Global climate change Non-native invasive species Population Growth 6 Bil. in 2000 8-9 Bil by 2050 More demand for every forest resource Intensified wood production More pressure on natural forests Growth in temperate forests; depletion in tropical forests Potential overexploitation of boreal forests Political Instability Emerging democracies Tribalism Crisis in Islam and the war on civilization Corruption, illegal logging China and India emerging powers Oregon budgets and ballot measures Severe social fragmentation over public forest values and purposes Trade Costs Assuming global wood supply will meet all future needs is not sound: Market inequities, barriers Fuel prices Value of US dollar Shipping security Where you sit in the transport queue – highest value products go first Widening Gulf Between Rich and Poor Deforestation in tropics, developing nations Poverty – even pockets in rich nations Unstable developing economies International strife, war over access to resources Urban-rural divide Changes in Forest Products Industries Globally competitive markets Planted forests for wood, fiber (62% in Asia) Partnerships in developing countries Transnational capital flow Increased utilization efficiency Dominance of globally integrated companies Disintegration of forestlands from mills Growing Environmental Awareness Broader concept of “the environment” “Green” as a marketing asset Certification gaining ground Allure and illusion of reserves Affluence, power create the tensions: Enable consumption, imports, pollution Enable concern for environment Rising Demand for Forest Products, Values High consumption in First World Rising consumption in developing regions Wood is part of solution to energy drain Rising demand for water, recreation Forests for biodiversity, climate change Global Climate Change Forests are carbon scrubbers, sinks Wood is an alternative to fuel-intensive building materials Potential impacts of carbon credit markets on forest values Impacts on growing zones, productivity, vulnerabilities to invasives Non-native Invasive Species Plant impacts on native species competitive advantage, fuels Insect, pathogen impacts on native species Constraints on trade Impacts on management costs Global Forest Context Forest area: ~ 9.6 bil ac; 50-66% of 1600 ce Forest loss: ~ 23 mil ac/yr in 1990s Population + economic growth = forest loss, but not always - 30 mil ac/yr tropics, + 7 mil ac/yr non-tropics Demands for forest benefits ever growing Water quality, quantity Wood use (+ 0.3 to 0.5%/yr) Biodiversity conservation Carbon storage Recreation, subsistence, cultural uses Global & U.S. Wood Use Ind. wood use rose 40% since 1960: ~ 1.58 BCM in 2000 Fuel wood use > industrial wood use: ~ 1.78 BCM in 2000 Ind. wood use could increase 33% by 2050: ~ 2 BCM ~ 80% of global wood and fiber will come from planted forests by mid century or earlier ~ 33% of industrial wood used worldwide crosses an international boundary from tree to product US imports 27% of sawnwood products consumed; exports associated jobs & impacts US uses 27% of world’s industrial wood; largest per capita US forest and wood choices drive global wood market UN FAO 2003: 2000 data US in Global Context 4.7 People Land 7 Forest Land 5.8 20 NA IUCN Protected Forest Plantations 8.7 8 Wood Volume Ind. Wood Produced 28 Ind. Wood Used 27 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Percent of World Share (UN FAO 2003: 2000 data) On to Our 2nd Topic Forests in a Global Context Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead Where did this Big Word Come From? Sustained yield – forestry, fisheries, wildlife: late 1800s Sustainable development Brundtland Commission 1987 Earth Summit 1992 Agenda 21, Chapter 11 Montreal Process, Santiago Declaration PCSD, Exec. Order, SFM Roundtable SFM Certification/Licensing Systems 1990s Forest Program for Oregon 2000 What Does it Mean? Latin: sus = up; tenere = to hold The ability to: Hold up Support, supply with sustenance Keep in existence, prolong Persevere, endure, withstand Use without degrading Sustainability of What? Natural Resources? Economies? Institutions? Ecosystems? Communities? Human Well Being? All of the Above Applied to Forests Forest resources across the landscape are used, developed and protected at a rate and in a manner that enables people to meet their current environmental, economic and social needs, and also provides that future generations can meet their own needs (ORS 184.421). Montreal Process Criteria Biodiversity Productive capacity Ecosystem health Soil and water conservation Global carbon storage, cycle Socio-economic benefits Legal, institutional, economic policies Other approaches to SFM – ATFS, MUSY, FPFO, SFI, FSC, CSA, ISO, ITTO, Tarapoto, Helsinki: Criteria, standards, objectives, principles and indicators for all are working hypotheses; being tested and refined through use; the dust has definitely not settled yet. SFM Issues Who makes the rules, sets the targets? Mixed ownership landscapes Changing ownerships, fragmentation Compensation for public benefits Consistency in standards, reciprocity Scientific basis for standards Tailoring for regional variation, purposes Elitism, dueling systems Dealing with consumption US is NOT a Global Model U.S. is not on a path that others can follow and be globally sustainable; Preserve our resources, use the resources of others’, high use of non-renewables; Must alter our course and “close the loop” on production and consumption of resources for quality of life. What makes us think we can do it for forests? Learning from the Past To chart a path to the future … What We Know About Forests Complex, dynamic ecosystems: time and space Management/conservation driven by demands Demand for wood & all other forest values continues to grow Must yield value to stay forested, if private Local choices can have global transfer effects Forestry, technology and conservation can and have restored and enhanced forests, their products and uses, e.g., America’s Tree Farms, America’s family forests, Tillamook State Forest, Green Mountain NF, engineered wood products Oregon Forests State Federal Tribal Private Water Oregon Forests Forests are one of Oregon’s greatest natural assets ~ 46% of Oregon’s land is forest: 28 mil ac., among most productive in world, all managed for water quality, ~ 90% of original forest, ~1% net loss in recent decades ~ 57% federal (NFS, BLM, NPS) Most currently reserved from timber harvest or managed for recreation and natural values as primary purpose (> 80% Cascades & west; 20-50% central & eastern OR) ~ 43% non-federal 21% industry, 16% family, 3% state, ~ 3% tribal, county, municipal 90+% of state’s timber harvest from these lands; ~10% from state Historical Context Forest sector’s economic role has changed Forest products major factors in Oregon economy and community life from late 1800s to early 1980s Employment in forest sector fell during 1980s to early 1990s, stable since mid 1990s Recession early 80s, retooling 80s-90s, supply loss early 90s Economic challenges most severe in rural communities Land available for harvest reduced dramatically 1990s Timber harvest on private lands ~ stable since 1990 Most forest sector jobs now derive from private lands Historical Context … Public perceptions on economic and community roles of forest sector ever changing 1980s-1990s: conflict over forests, environmental concerns produced: Old-growth protection in federal forests (5.3 million ac) Economic hardship for rural communities, economies Increased regulatory and legal costs for wood producers Gridlock and excessive costs on federal forestlands False perceptions of forest resources in Oregon’s future 2004: Oregonians want balance, end to conflict strategy, forests managed for economic, social, and environmental benefits, i.e., sustainability’s “triple bottom line” Wood from Oregon Forests Timber harvest: ~ 3.9 BBF in 2002 ~ 5% of US softwood harvest Superior quality wood due to species, growing conditions, milling and manufacturing processes Sustainable harvest potentials 1977-1989: 5.6 – 8.6 BBF/yr OSU 1997 study long term sustainable: 7.5 BBF/yr 1998 – 2002 (after NWFP + other restrictions): 3.4 – 4.1 BBF/yr If total ban on federal harvest: 3.5 - 4 BBF/yr ?? If HFRA + federal second growth available: > 5 BBF ?? Forest Sector in Economy Primary, Secondary, Services $12.6 billion total industrial output (TIO); 6.3% of State TIO 85,600 direct jobs; 4% of State total $3.5 billion wages; ave wage = $40,525; State ave. wage = $34,840 Forest recreation/tourism $2.4 billion TIO; 37,900 jobs Hovee 2004 Benefits Beyond Wood Water: from all forests Energy: wood as fuel, wood as low energy material, urban trees for energy conservation Recreation: especially from public forests Carbon stores: in the forest and in wood products Biodiversity: reservoirs and sources Minerals: domestic sources, reserves Ecosystem services: mitigate global change Let’s Talk About Roles Forests in a Global Context Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead The “Whole Forest” View All Forests: from urban forests and tree farms to wilderness and parks All Forest Products: from wood and water to wild things and wild places All Forest Practices: from preservation and protection to restoration and production All Forest Uses: from recreation and learning to jobs and subsistence All Forest Values: from carbon stores and jobs to sources of life and inspiration Breadth of Sustainable Forest Management Sustainable forest management varies by forest type, ownership, primary purpose Forest purposes: Wood and fiber production Multiple resource values/uses Reserves, nature preservation Urban and community forests Wood Production Forests Most of world’s future wood will come from planted forests: ~ 33% now, ~ 80% by 2050, from ~ 10-20% of global forest area Primary purposes: Grow trees for wood, fiber Increase forest value to owner Management challenges: Thrive in global markets Increase wood yield: < 2X over natural Reduce environmental impacts Improve wood quality, consistency Produce high return on investment Maintain social license to operate Most Productive Forest Lands in US … are in the hands of 9-10,000,000 family, tribal, and industrial private sector forest stewards! Site Class by Ownership Million Acres by Site Class in U.S. (annual growth in cu ft/ac) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 = >120 2 = 85-120 3 = 50-85 4 = 20-50 5 = 0-20 National Other Forest Family Forest Public Industry Forests Source: Powell et al. (1993) Tables 5 and 6 Multi-resource Forests Most of the world’s accessible forests have multiple resource purposes < 40% of global forest area? Primary purposes: Meet diverse landowner objectives Increase forest value to owner(s) Challenges: Optimize multi-resource outcomes Produce multiple benefits for acceptable costs Finance non-market benefits Reserve Forests Parks, wilderness, natural areas: 12.4% in 2000 < 40-50% of global forest area? Primary purposes: Sustain at-risk species, natural processes, “wild” ecosystems Recreation, cultural uses Management challenges: Minimize human use impacts Restore, promote wildness, naturalness Ameliorate effects of invasive species, air pollution Achieve goals for least costs Urban, Community Forests Where 80% of the people live Primary purposes: Attractive communities, neighborhoods Conserve resources: water, energy Increase property values Backyard wildlife habitats Management challenges: Safety, infrastructure impacts Minimize sprawl and resource use Minimize invasive species escapes Reserve Forests: Mostly federal, some state, tribal, private Wood Production Forests: Mostly industry, family, some state, tribal Forest Sustainability Environmental Benefits Urban, Community Forests: Forests where people live Multi-resource Forests: Mostly state, tribal, some family, some federal Ownership Matters Multi-resource Wood Production Reserve Industry, TIMO * * Private, large Family, ENGO Tribes State Federal * Streamside zones, leave trees, HECV = mini or micro reserves Oregon’s Current Balance Oregon Forest Area by Primary Purpose Wood Production 36% Reserve 31% Multi-resource* 33% * This includes 2.5 million acres of federal matrix and AMAs which currently are not fully serving their designated purpose Let’s Talk About the Future Forests in a Global Context Sustainability and forests Different roles for different forests The work ahead SFM Challenges Keep forest lands in forest uses for forest values Use and shape global forces to influence future Meet people’s forest resource needs Improve management and conservation Invest in new knowledge and technologies: New sciences and products for sustainability Enhance lifelong learning and extended education Develop incentives for sustainable production and conservation … AND Address Demand -Consumption Ethics Intelligent consumption and production of renewable natural resources is key to sustaining quality of life; Overuse or poor choices degrade ecosystems, transfer effects; Prudent choices consider others, the future, and the entire life cycle of resources. Building a Future from Past Success Oregon has a solid foundation for natural resource sustainability Land-use dedications: federal and state forests, parks, wildlife refuges; nature reserves; wood production zones Diverse ownerships = diverse outcomes Globally competitive industry State land-use laws limit forest, ag-land loss State & federal forest, water, air, wildlife protection laws Building from Success … State forestry strategic plan (FPFO) World-class forestry education, research and extension (OSU CoF-FRL, FS PNWRS, USGS, EPA) Private-public partnerships (Oregon Plan) Public forestry education programs (OFRI) Growing sustainability ethic, incentives Access to major markets Returns on Investments Highest quality water in Oregon from forestlands Fish habitat restoration well underway Successful reforestation following harvest Wood growth exceeds harvest Sustainable contributions to Oregon’s economic, social and environmental goals Public support for “balanced” management Gaps Remain Conserving habitats of exceptional conservation value – heritage resources Reducing costs and gridlock on federal lands Bringing non-wood resources into “markets” – carbon, biodiversity, recreation Shifting policy from static to dynamic views of nature Learning from the “grand experiments” We Have Options, Choices to Make What is most appropriate for forests in different places at different times for overall sustainability? How do we blend different roles at watershed, landscape, regional scales – minimize transfer effects? How do we meet people’s resource needs efficiently, with desired outcomes for “triple bottom line”? How can knowledge and technology improve our choices for forests and products? How can we improve decisions, position for change, build social capacity, improve governance? Areas for Research/Policy Harvest practices Fire, pests, forest health Productivity practices Roads Diversity practices Water, fish, wildlife New wood products Forest-related jobs, trade Non-wood uses Communications Incentives/rewards Risk assessment Urban-forest interface Creating common ground What Choice Here? Western forests are adding wood at ~ 1% per year; compounds like interest Mortality 0.07 Removals 0.09 Growth 0.2 Inventory 10.3 0 2 4 6 8 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) USFS 1996 FIA data 10 12 Beware of Simple, Static, Extreme Ideologies The Real World is: Complex, ambiguous, uncertain, and full of unknowns, surprises, and change. Living Together Successfully in the Real World Requires: Compromise, competition, reasoned judgment, innovation, sharing, and continual adaptation. Divisive Ideologies Markets Know Best Nature Knows Best Govt. Knows Best Common Ground Science Knows Best I Know Best Locals Know Best The Law Is Clear Constructive Views Markets Are a Means Science Informs Choices Learn From Nature Govt. Sets Standards Common Ground I’ve Got Some Ideas Laws Give Direction Locals Know A Lot Learn & Work Together We are shaping the sustainability of forests, economies, and communities in Oregon, America, and the world with every choice we make.